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Restaurant Sector Update Winter 2021

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Food and Beverage M&A Landscape Winter 2019 Restaurant Sector Update Winter 2021 RestaurantRestaurant Sector Sector Update Update | Winter | Winter 2021 2021 KEY Executive Summary INFORMATION The U.S. restaurant industry was one of the most severely affected sectors by the global pandemic. Certain fundamental shifts in the restaurant sector leading up to the pandemic further exacerbated the impact of the government-mandated response. An oversaturated restaurant market, changing consumer preferences emphasizing convenience or experience and a noticeable decline in Median QSR and fast casual sector millennials visiting full-service restaurants, contributed to negative traffic SSS outperformed industry by 23% trends before the pandemic. For the two years prior to the pandemic, traffic declined by an average of 2.2% each month. Operators were forced to compensate with price increases, which largely offset the negative traffic. The resurgence in global equities—including restaurant stocks which are up 80% from April lows—has partially masked the continued pain points being felt on the ground across a large part of the sector. Restaurant publicly traded equities Government-mandated lockdowns beginning in March led to massive continue to recover, up 80% from declines in same-store sales for all concepts, especially those without the pandemic-driven lows robust off-premise infrastructures. Drive-thru capabilities, innovative off- premise solutions, and warmer weather helped fuel a rebound leading into the summer. However, the December resurgence of new COVID-19 cases and accompanying restrictions, as well as the cooling weather in Northern states, drove further setbacks in same-store sales moving into 2021. Nearly 4M industry jobs recovered Concepts that were already struggling with large traffic declines pre- since employment bottomed in pandemic and those that recently took on leverage to fuel growth were April 2020, before retreating slightly particularly disadvantaged when government-mandated closures were in December initiated. Many of these concepts, unable to negotiate a plan with incumbent lenders, filed for Chapter 11 protection. As a result, more than 30 restaurant chains filed bankruptcy in 2020, a fivefold increase over the prior year. Capacity restrictions have been Despite the challenges endured over the past year, some positive signs reinstated across much of the U.S., point to a more favorable 2021. Operators spent the better part of 2020 including 10 that have completely shifting to off-premise capable business models with a reduced labor force, closed in-restaurant dining helping to salvage profitability margins despite lower volumes. Significant liquidity in the markets, combined with operators’ realization that size and scale has become more important to survival, will likely continue to drive consolidation throughout the industry. Source: Nation’s Restaurant News, Black Box Intelligence report, and Capital IQ 2 Duff &Duff Phelps & Phelps Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 2020—At a Glance The recovery in food service employment tapered in early fall and The year of chicken—dozens of concepts joined the chicken turned negative in December as new capacity restrictions set in sandwich craze with innovative chicken dishes suited to their and colder weather limited outdoor dining. particular menu focus. (Employment in millions) 12.2 12.2 12.3 11.7 10.2 10.2 9.7 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.2 Iris’ Comeback Buffalo Chicken Chicken Hot 7.7 Nashville Chicken Chicken Sandwich Sandwich Sliders & Waffle Chick’n 6.2 King's Hawaiian Nashville Hot Baja Hot Spicy Fi’ed Chicken Crispy Chicken Chicken Sandwich Chicken Taco Sandwich Sandwich 12/1/2019 3/1/2020 6/1/2020 9/1/2020 12/1/2020 Same-store sales suffered across concept type, with the largest Many states reinstated capacity restrictions as the COVID case post-pandemic declines in the family, casual and fine dining count increased, with many states restricted to 50% or less of sectors. normal capacity. Fast Casual Upscale Family Fine QSR Casual Dining Dining Dining Dining 7.8% 3.7% 4.9% 8.0% 3.4% 11.9% (1.1%) (9.3%) Legend (21.3%) (27.6%) (30.0%) (32.6%) None: (34.5%) 0-25%: Hi 26-50%: (51.0%) 51-75%: (72.8%) 2020 SSS 100%: (78.2%) Dependent on city/county: (83.7%) Lo (88.7%) 3 Sources: Nation’s Restaurant News, Restaurant Business Online, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Duff & Phelps Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 Restaurant Public Equities Fast casual, quick service and coffee concepts have handily Despite falling 5% more than the S&P 500, the S&P restaurant outperformed the broader S&P restaurant index during both the 3- index roared back in 2020 to nearly match the return of the broader and 5-year periods. index. 181.6% 3 yr Return 181.6% 20.0% 16.3% 5 yr Return 143.3% 146.9% 133.7% 125.2% 143.3% 146.9% 133.7%114.3% 125.2% 104.6% 10.0% 15.5% 114.3% 85.1% 104.6% 5 yr S&P Restaurant Index Return = 88.5% 85.1% 53.8% 0.0% 37.0% 53.8% 3 yr S&P Restaurant Index Return = 52.1% 37.0% (10.0%) 0.5% 0.5% (20.0%) (25.4%) (21.0%) (40.1%) (25.4%) (21.0%) (40.1%) (30.0%) (30.7%) Mass Specialty Polished Fine Fast Quick Coffee and (40.0%) (35.7%) CasualMass SpecialtyCasual PolishedCasual DiningFine CasualFast ServiceQuick CoffeeBakery and Casual Casual Casual Dining Casual Service Bakery S&P 500 S&P Restaurant Index Certain concepts lost favor with investors in 2020, driving double Quick service and coffee concepts outperform other restaurant digit price declines, particularly in mass casual and family dining sectors’ return on assets, some by two to three times. chains that could not react quickly to the COVID-19 environment. 3 yr Average Return on Assets 9.2% 9.3% (23.7%) J. Alexander's 6.0% (25.3%) Dave & Buster's Entertainment 5.4% 5.4% Median: 5.4% 4.5% (26.2%) Denny's 3.3% (30.6%) Dine Brands Global (41.8%) Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Mass Specialty Polished Fine Fast Quick Coffee & Casual Casual Casual Dining Casual Service Bakery 5 Duff & Phelps Source: Capital IQ Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) Over 240 blank-check companies went public in 2020, raising more than $83B—more than six times the prior year—in a continued acceleration of SPAC formation that began in 2016. The restaurant sector was not left out of the SPAC trend, with several IPOs focused on identifying acquisitions throughout the hospitality and restaurant sectors and the successful consummation of BurgerFi by Opes Acquisition. SELECT MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCE Debuted: August 2020 Size: $200M Focus: Hospitality & Restaurants Deployment announced on (NasdaqGM:BFI) 2/1/2021 for $6.6B acquisition of Landry’s/Golden Nugget 2011 100+ $1.5M Founded Locations AUV $0.6–$1.0M 82% $236M Initial Investment Franchised Market Cap Debuted: October 2020 Size: $240M Focus: Hospitality & BurgerFi Stock Price Performance Restaurants (or related technology) $16.50 900,000 $15.71 $16.00 800,000 $15.50 700,000 600,000 $15.00 500,000 $14.50 $13.69 400,000 $14.00 300,000 $13.50 200,000 $13.00 100,000 Debuted: August 2020 $12.50 0 12/17/20 12/22/20 12/28/20 12/31/20 Size: $300M Volume Share Price Focus: Hospitality, Consumer, & Entertainment 6 Sources: Nation’s Restaurant News, Merger Market, Capital IQ, Publicly available market data Duff & Phelps Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 Increasing Importance of Adequate Liquidity NET DEBT LEVERAGE CURRENT LIQUIDITY ($ in millions) Revolver drawdowns, debt placements and decreasing profitability drove net $2,917.0 debt leverage ratios higher compared to 2019, causing concern among lenders and investors as to the sustainability of some restaurants. $1,527.3 LTM 2020 $663.0 Deterioration in debt leverage levels were 7.7x particularly noticeable in concepts that don’t $643.8 lend themselves to off-premise channels. $605.8 4.8x 4.4x 3.9x $534.3 2.5x 1.2x 0.9x $528.6 Mass Specialty Polished Fine Fast Quick Coffee & $411.2 Casual Casual Casual Dining Casual Service Bakery $307.7 LTM 2019 $255.4 4.5x $253.1 2.8x $175.0 1.7x 1.4x 1.6x 0.8x 0.6x $155.0 Mass Specialty Polished Fine Fast Quick Coffee & Casual Casual Casual Dining Casual Service Bakery $26.6 $17.2 7 Sources: Capital IQ, Publicly available market data Duff & Phelps Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 Uptick in Restaurant Bankruptcies A wave of restaurants filed for bankruptcy protection throughout 2020, with many citing the unprecedented pandemic-related difficulties—in particular, operating restrictions—as the primary reason for filing. January 2020 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 August 2020 September 2020 November 2020 November 2020 Restaurant bankruptcies likely peaked in Q3 2020, as 11 the second PPP round, vaccine distribution, and 9 reopening economies will reduce the strain felt across 7 the industry. 5 2 2 1 1 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Sources: Capital IQ, Merger Market, and publicly-available industry data Note: All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners 9 Duff & Phelps Restaurant Sector Update | Winter 2021 $659B Rescue Program In March 2020, the U.S.
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