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The Future Impact of ICT on Environmental Sustainability

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The Future Impact of ICT on Environmental Sustainability Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT) Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research Sustainable Information Technology Unit (EMPA-SIT) Forum for the Future International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University (IIIEE) The future impact of ICT on environmental sustainability Second Interim Report “Script” Lorenz Erdmann (IZT) Siegfried Behrendt (IZT) submitted to Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Sevilla Berlin, May 2003 Chapter 1 Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. © European Communities, 2003. Reproduction is authorized provided the source is acknowledged. 2 Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the script the following ten key trends in ICT with low uncertainty have been identified: 1. Moore’s law continues for 10-15 years 2. Increasing context sensitivity 3. Wireless and mobile networks spread and converge 4. Widespread broadband access 5. Embedded computing and extension of networks into daily appliances 6. Growth of ICT markets 7. Ongoing built-up of ICT infrastructure 8. Parallel development of licensed and free software 9. Improved reliability of authentification systems 10. Improvement of existing ICT services and new location based services The scope of the investigation covers the following 10 fields and 7 indicators: freight passenger modal energy Share of GHG Daily transport transport split consumpt renewabl emissions waste volume volume ion es First order ICT industry x(i) ICT use x(d, t) x(d, t) Second and third order E-business x x x(i, t) x(d, t) Telework and virtual x x(d, t) meetings Virtual goods x(d, t) Waste management x(d, t) Intelligent transport x x x systems Energy supply x(d, t, i) x x Facility management x(d, t) Production process x(d,t) management d: domestic, i: industry, t: tertiary For each of the 10 fields a fact sheet of the following structure has been prepared: - definition and scope - data on diffusion - data on environmental indicators - variables - external factors These fact sheets, exploring important factors and uncertainties are the basis for the scenario- building and modelling and also contain information in which areas policy can steer towards environmental sustainability. i Preface PREFACE The aim of task 2 is to lay the entire data basis for the project. The following figure shows the worksteps of the call for tender and how they are considered in the script: Workstep The broad perspective 2.1 ICT ICT trends applications Selection Selection Workstep In depth analysis (Fact sheets) 2.2 - definition and scope Factors/ - data on diffusion events - data on environmental indicators - variables Uncertainty - external factors Selection Workstep Draft script 2.3 Workstep Project meeting 2.4 Workstep Interim report 2 2.5 iii Preface Workstep 2.1: The aim of workstep 2.1 is to give a broad perspective of the future trends and developments of ICT. On the one hand technological and economic developments in the ICT sector have been identified, on the other hand a synopsis of ICT-applications relevant to the environmental indicators has been compiled. The technological and economic developments in the ICT sector (chapter 2) have been analysed by evaluating existing studies on the future course of ICT. Main data sources are IPTS Technology maps and material of the eEurope 2002 and eEurope 2005 initiatives. Six main areas mainly addressed in these reports are investigated: microelectronics, new functions, networks, ICT devices and infrastructure, software and knowledge management and, finally, services and applications. ICT trends and developments in these areas have been analysed by estimating the expected time horizons and giving a rationale for the uncertainty. Ten key trends with low uncertainty have been selected. In order to give one of several inputs for the scenario building additionally other key factors/events for the development of ICT were identified in a brainstorming in an in-house workshop at IZT. They have been classified by their estimated probability and impact on diffusion of ICT. A broad overview of ICT-applications discussed in scientific literature with regard to their environmental impact is given in the synopsis (chapter 3). Based upon the principal sustainability strategies and the chosen sector/indicator-combinations (1st interim report) the ICT-applications have been clustered into the following fields: virtual goods, virtual mobility, e- business, intelligent transport systems, energy demand, energy supply and waste management. The principal second order effects of these strategies on the environmental indicators have been assessed to identify key interactions of ICT-applications and the indicators. The same has been carried out for the first order effects of ICT industry and ICT use. Third order effects are dealt with in the in-depth analysis (Workstep 2.2). Main data sources evaluated include two studies carried out for the European Union: The “Atlas-Project” (ATLAS 1997) and “Telematic applications for sustainable energy management” (IZT, ETSU 1999). Furthermore various studies prepared by the project partners and other research institutions were analysed to close data gaps. The potential effects on the environmental indicators are screened. A selection for the in-depth analysis was carried out by a semi-quantitative assessment of the impact on the environmental indicators. Additionally the quality of data is characterised briefly to give an impression in which fields the data basis is still insufficient. This has to be taken into account for political action. The selected ICT-applications are analysed in detail in workstep 2.2. Workstep 2.2: Workstep 2.2 contains an in-depth analysis of factors and events. In each of the fact sheets derived from workstep 2.1 a scope of the areas investigated is defined. Then data on diffusion of the ICT-applications and the factors/events that influence their uptake in the EU have been gathered and structured. Data for main environmental effects identified in workstep 2.1 have been compiled from many different single studies and analysed. For both the diffusion of the ICT-applications and environmental effects most relevant variables have been extracted. The degree of uncertainty has been estimated for each of the variables. Furthermore the relation of external factors to variables is assessed and explained in the form of a rationale. The selection is preliminary, as Forum for the Future will add and drop some additional variables for building the scenarios. Workstep 2.3: Data from 2.1 and 2.2 have been condensed into a draft script. Workstep 2.4: A discussion of the draft script has taken place on 22 April 2003 in Barcelona. Workstep 2.5: The 2nd interim report documents the data basis for project, results of workstep 2.4 and additional comprehensive comments by IPTS on the draft script. iv CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................I PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................... III 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 2 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK........................................................................................... 3 2.1 Innovation and diffusion of ICT................................................................................................... 3 2.2 The socio-economic context......................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Environmental effects................................................................................................................... 6 3 KEY TRENDS IN SELECTED FIELDS OF ICT............................................................................ 9 3.1 Microelectronics ......................................................................................................................... 10 3.2 New functions ............................................................................................................................. 10 3.3 Networks ..................................................................................................................................... 11 3.4 ICT devices and interfaces.......................................................................................................... 14 3.5 Software and knowledge management....................................................................................... 16 3.6 Services and applications............................................................................................................ 18 3.7 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 20 Digression: Alternative future courses of the ICT sector......................................................................... 21 4 SYNOPSIS........................................................................................................................................... 23 4.1 Shaping the synopsis................................................................................................................... 23 4.1.1 Where are
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