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Lake Superior Regulation L AKE S UPERIOR R EGULATION LAKE SUPERIOR REGULATION: : A ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTY IN UPPER DDRESSING GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS U NCERTAINTY IN U PPER G REAT L AKES W ATER L EVELS FINAL REPORT TO THE INTERNATIONAL JOINT COMMISSION MARCH 2012 Report Cover Changing water levels can have significant effects on the lives of the more than 25 million people who live and work in the upper Great Lakes region. The front cover shows an integrated view of the key interests served by these waters. In the centre of the image is a photograph of the control structures at the outlet of Lake Superior on the St. Marys River, the only location in the entire Great Lakes basin upstream from Niagara Falls where water levels can be affected by regulation. Under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909, domestic and sanitary water uses, navigation, and power and irrigation are given order of precedence. These uses must be taken into account in the development of regulation plans. Today, it is recognized that other interests have rights under the Treaty, consistent with the International Joint Commission’s balancing principle – providing benefits or relief to interests affected by water levels and flows without causing undue detriment to other interests. With this in mind, the International Upper Great Lakes Study added the interests of ecosystems, coastal zone uses and recreational boating and tourism to its analysis of Lake Superior regulation and uncertainty in future upper Great Lakes water levels. In addition, the Study recognized that First Nations in Canada, Native Americans and Métis represent an important perspective in the upper Great Lakes. For thousands of years, and continuing into the present, many Native American communities and First Nations have relied on the natural resources of the Great Lakes to meet their economic, cultural and spiritual needs. Front cover graphic: Syed M. A. Moin Study Logo: John Nevin, Communications Advisor Photo Credits All photos by members of International Upper Great Lakes Study Board or from the library of the International Joint Commission, unless otherwise noted. For More Information on the Study For more information on the International Upper Great Lakes Study, please visit the Study’s website: www.iugls.org. Information can also be obtained by writing to either of the following addresses: International Joint Commissio International Joint Commission 234 Laurier Ave. W. 2000 L Street, NW 22nd Floor Suite #615 Ottawa, ON Washington, DC Canada K1P 6K USA 20440 Catalogue Number: Print: E95-2/15-2012E PDF: E95-2/15-2012E-PDF ISBN: Print: 978-1-100-20323-2 b PDF: 978-1-100-20324-9Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels March 16, 2012 Hon. Joe Comuzzi Lana Pollack Chair, Canadian Section Chair, U.S. Section International Joint Commission International Joint Commission 234 Laurier Ave. W., 22nd Floor 2000 L St. NW, Suite 615 Ottawa, ON K1P 6K6 Washington, DC 20440 Dear Chairpersons Comuzzi and Pollack: The International Upper Great Lakes Study Board is pleased to submit its final report, Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels. The International Upper Great Lakes Study was launched five years ago to address a recurring challenge in the upper Great Lakes system: how to manage fluctuating lake levels in the face of uncertainty over future water supplies to the basin while seeking to balance the needs of those interests served by the system. The Study’s first report, Impacts on Upper Great Lakes Water Levels: St. Clair River, addressed changes in the St. Clair River. It was submitted to the International Joint Commission in December 2009. The information from that report generated a critical new understanding of the St. Clair flow regime and the implications for upper Great Lakes water levels. Our second and concluding report focuses on the formulation and evaluation of options for a new regulation plan for Lake Superior outflows. It also addresses restoration and multi-lake regulation as alternative approaches for dealing with extreme water levels beyond those addressed by Lake Superior regulation alone, and considers the important role that adaptive management can play to help all parties better anticipate and respond to extreme water levels in the future. We believe that the Study reflects the best of what the International Joint Commission does: it has brought together some 200 scientists, engineers, planners and technical experts from both the United States and Canada for nearly five years of rigorous planning and scientific investigations; it has produced more than 100 separate technical reports that stand as a true legacy for future researchers; it has involved a strong commitment to public engagement at virtually every step; and, it has benefited from an unprecedented level of independent expert peer review. The result is a set of pragmatic but pivotal recommendations that we believe will enable the International Joint Commission to more effectively address the uncertainties associated with a changing climate and extreme water levels. Most importantly, we are recommending a new regulation plan for Lake Superior, one that will perform well regardless of future water supplies and in a manner that is equitable for all the interests. Our recommendations are submitted unanimously. They are the outcome of careful consideration of all the scientific information as well as extensive deliberations on how to incorporate climate uncertainty into the regulation plan evaluation process. i Finally, we would like to express our sincere appreciation to the International Joint Commission for the opportunity to serve on the Study Board. Respectfully submitted, Ted R. Yuzyk Eugene S. Stakhiv Co-Chair Co-Chair James P. Bruce David Powers PIAG Co-Chair PIAG Co-Chair Donald Burn John Boland Member Member Allan Chow James Bredin Member Member Jonathan H. Gee Jonathan W. Bulkley Member Member Syed M. A. Moin Anthony J. Eberhardt Co-Manager Co-Manager ii Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels Acknowledgements The International Upper Great Lakes Study gratefully acknowledges the many individuals from Canada and the United States who contributed to the planning, applied research, writing and review of this report. Their collaborative efforts have produced a comprehensive report, based on sound science and peer-reviewed analysis, that will enable the International Joint Commission to more effectively address the uncertainties associated with a changing climate and extreme water levels in the upper Great Lakes. A detailed list of contributors to the Study is provided in the Annex. Members of the International Upper Great Lakes Study Board served from 2007 to 2012, directing the Study’s planning and analysis and developing recommendations for the International Joint Commission. Photo taken at the final meeting of the Study Board, in February 2012, at the Canadian office of the International Joint Commission, in Ottawa, ON. Members (left to right): Dr. John Boland, Dr. Syed Moin (Study Co-Manager), Dr. Donald Burn, Dr. James Bruce, Ted Yuzyk (Study Co-Chair), Dr. Eugene Stakhiv (Study Co-Chair), Jonathan Gee, James Bredin, David Powers, Dr. Jonathan Bulkley, Dr. Anthony Eberhardt (Study Co-Manager). (Missing: Allan Chow). Photo credit: Jacob Bruxer, Environment Canada iii iv Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in Upper Great Lakes Water Levels Executive Summary Lake Superior Regulation: Addressing Uncertainty in The Challenge Upper Great Lakes Water Levels is the second and final report of the bi-national International Upper Great Lakes The Study addressed a recurring challenge in the upper Great Study (the Study). The Study was launched by the Lakes system: how to manage fluctuating lake levels in the face International Joint Commission (IJC) in 2007 to: of uncertainty over future water supplies to the basin while • examine physical processes and possible ongoing changes seeking to balance the needs of those interests served by the system. in the St. Clair River and their impacts on levels of lakes The waters of the upper Great Lakes meet many diverse Michigan and Huron1 and, if applicable, evaluate and needs of the more than 25 million people who live in the recommend potential remedial options; and, basin: from drinking water to electrical power generation, • review the regulation of Lake Superior outflows and assess from industrial manufacturing to food crop irrigation, from the need for improvements to address both the changing recreational boating to commercial shipping. They are conditions of the upper Great Lakes and the evolving important to the economic and cultural lives of Native needs of the many interests served by the system. American communities and First Nations. The lakes and connecting rivers also maintain wetlands and fisheries. The Study’s first report, Impacts on Upper Great Lakes Water Levels: St. Clair River, addressed changes in the In the entire upper Great Lakes basin, water levels are St. Clair River. It was submitted to the IJC in affected by regulation at only one location upstream from December 2009.2 Niagara Falls: at the outlet of Lake Superior on the St. Marys River. The IJC issued Orders of Approval in 1914 for The geographical scope of the Study was the upper Great hydropower development on the St. Marys River and the first Lakes basin, from the headwaters of Lake Superior Lake Superior regulation plan was implemented in 1921. downstream through lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair and Since 1921, seven different regulation plans have been used Erie and their connecting channels (the St. Marys, St. Clair to determine Lake Superior outflows. The current plan, and Detroit rivers, the Straits of Mackinac and the upper 1977A, has been in force since 1990. Niagara River). The rationale for reviewing the existing plan is based on The IJC appointed a 10-member bi-national Study Board several important factors that have emerged over the past to direct and manage the Study.
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