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Theories of Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa Bram Theories of Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa Bram Romijn Thesis Submitted in Partial Fullfillment of the Requirements for the degree of MA. in Religious Studies at Radboud University Nijmegen Student Bram Romijn Student number: 4209478 Address: Nijburgsestraat 20, 6668AZ Randwijk E-mail: [email protected] Supervisor Dr. Roel Meijer Islamic Studies Faculty of Philosophy, Theology and Religious Studies Radboud University NIjmegen 1 Abstract The Middle East started to modernize in the 1950s. Western scholars expected the Middle East to democratize as well. Large parts of Africa and Asia had both modernized and democratized. It seemed only logical to assume that the Middle East would democratize as well. However, the Middle East never really did democratize. The authoritarian regimes of the Middle East proved to be resilient to political change. Various theories were developed to explain the sustenance of Arab authoritarianism. An overview of the historical development of the various theories has not been written until now. It is the purpose of this study to give such an overview and offer an analysis of the various theories. The research question is therefore: How has the debate regarding authoritarian resilience in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) developed over the years? The research question will be answered using the historical method. This study finds that the debate has developed from theories espousing cultural / religious explanations to the rentier state theory and at last turned into the authoritarian resilience theory. The different theories find that the legitimacy of a regime is the key to the sustenance of its authoritarianism. Over time, Middle Eastern regimes used different strategies to gain legitimacy and keep it. The various theories describe these different strategies and show how Middle Eastern authoritarianism could be sustained for so long. 2 Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1 ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 Modernization theory ................................................................................................................................... 9 Lerner and Lipset on the participatory society ............................................................................................. 9 Modernization in MENA ......................................................................................................................... 13 Hudson, legitimacy and the nation-state ................................................................................................ 13 Modernization and the role of social forces ........................................................................................... 17 Forms of legitimacy in MENA .................................................................................................................. 19 History of legitimacy in MENA ................................................................................................................ 20 Chapter 2 ..................................................................................................................................................... 23 Islam and authoritarianism ......................................................................................................................... 23 Muslim values and political participation ............................................................................................... 24 Sharia & democracy ................................................................................................................................ 24 Islam, modernization & westernization .................................................................................................. 25 The Islamicate ..................................................................................................................................... 26 The Islamicate and modernization ...................................................................................................... 27 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 3 Sustaining Authoritarianism: Rentier State theory ................................................................... 29 Rents in MENA ........................................................................................................................................ 29 Taxation............................................................................................................................................... 30 Spending effect ................................................................................................................................... 30 Group Formation................................................................................................................................. 32 Repression ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Chapter 4 ..................................................................................................................................................... 34 Sustaining Authoritarianism: Civil society ................................................................................................... 34 Civil society ............................................................................................................................................. 34 The limits of civil society ......................................................................................................................... 36 The Islamization of (civil) society ............................................................................................................ 37 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 5 ..................................................................................................................................................... 40 3 Authoritarian resilience theory ................................................................................................................... 40 MENA after the 1990s ............................................................................................................................. 40 Authoritarian resilience theory ............................................................................................................... 41 Legitimacy issues & repression ........................................................................................................... 42 Arab autocracies ................................................................................................................................. 43 Elite change ......................................................................................................................................... 45 External influences .............................................................................................................................. 46 Imitative institution building ............................................................................................................... 47 Co-optation ......................................................................................................................................... 47 Authoritarian resilience and upgrading .................................................................................................. 49 Authoritarian resilience and bargains ..................................................................................................... 50 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 51 Chapter 6 ..................................................................................................................................................... 52 The Arab Spring and the authoritarian resilience theory ........................................................................... 52 The Arab Spring ....................................................................................................................................... 52 Criticism of the authoritarian resilience theory ...................................................................................... 55 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 7 ................................................................................................................................................. 5858 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................
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