Adaptation Strategies for Drought Risk Reduction in Farmers' Livelihoods

Adaptation Strategies for Drought Risk Reduction in Farmers’ Livelihoods: A Case Study of Kabul, Afghanistan

Roya Quraishi

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Climate Change and Sustainable Development

Examination Committee: Dr. Indrajit Pal (Chairperson) Dr. Nicolas Faysse Dr. Sylvia Szabo

Nationality: Afghan Previous Degree: Bachelor of Science in Hydrometeorology Kabul University Afghanistan

Scholarship Donor: Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE), Afghanistan-AIT Fellowship

Asian Institute of Technology School of Environment, Resources and Development Thailand December 2018

i Acknowledgments

First of all, I would thank Allah (SWT) who is very kind and merciful and gave me the chance to finish my thesis successfully and obtain my master degree. The finishing of this thesis was not possible without the help, cooperation, and guidance of the people who expanded their contribution and valuable assistance for the preparation of this study one way or another. With this, I would like to express my respect and gratitude to them.

Foremost, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Indrajit Pal who is an assistant professor at Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management (DPMM) program at Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand for the personal guidance, permanent encouragement, and his helpful criticism. He always has given me dynamism with continual energy and enthusiasm during the research. When I wanted to meet him for the solution of hardship or question about my writing or research, his office door always was open. He has consistently steered me in the right direction. I relate my master degree to his encouragement and effort and saying that this thesis would not have been completed without him. Every person can choose him as a better or friendlier supervisor. Once again, I would like to thank him for all of his invaluable guidance and support. I want to offer my sincere gratitude to my thesis committee members as well. One is Dr. Nicolas Faysse who is a visiting faculty at the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate (DEEC), School of Environment Resources and Development (SEED), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand. He lectures in Climate Change and Sustainable Development program (CCSD), and another committee member is Dr. Silvia who is an assistant professor in the Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) School of Environment Resources and Development (SEED) from Regional and Rural Development Planning Field (RRDP) at Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand for the spending of their valuable time, warm comments, critical advice, and for helping me find my faults. They also encouraged me with questions which widened my research from various perspectives. Once again, many thanks for all their helpful guidance and comments. Also, I am grateful for the guidance of all my department members, my seniors, and friends at the AIT who have supported and encouraged me. I am highly beholden from my beloved family members especially for my respected husband that he kindly assisted me. This achievement cannot have been possible without the love, prayers, and their encouragement and moral support throughout my study at AIT. Also, I want to thank all my Geo Science faculty members of Kabul University of Afghanistan and their assistance.

ii Abstract

Among all of the natural hazards, drought is one of the significant risks for the people's livelihoods and socio-economic progress. It is most recently realized that drought is the most complex and a common climatic hazard which more effects on people particularly the farmers and their livelihoods than any other hazards. The first impact of the drought is on agriculture, and its threats both agriculture and non-agriculture sectors which are dependent on the drought-affected area. The two districts (Paghman and Deh Sabz) from Kabul province of Afghanistan which are chosen as the study area are the drought-prone area. The farmers have been suffering from drought during the recent years, and it is a long time that the farmers have experienced the drought and its negative consequences on their farming and livelihoods. They also have a good perception of drought and its impacts on their agro- based livelihood. Thus, they have applied some adaptation strategies to reduce the drought impacts on farming and livelihood at their area based on their previous experiences.

This study has attempted to focus on farmers' adaptation strategies to drought in order to find out that which farmers' strategies or techniques can be adapted to reduce the impacts of drought on their agricultural productions and livelihoods. Furthermore, this study has assessed the farmers' perception and understanding against to the drought and its impacts on agriculture and farmer livelihoods. Thus, in the two districts (Paghman and Deh Sabz) from Kabul province of Afghanistan which are defined as the target area of this study, and also these are the drought-affected area. Therefore, the farmers have experienced and adapted some strategies to reduce the impacts of drought from their fields.

Micro-level analysis has determined that farmers are well aware of the drought issues. The farmers' perception and their understanding of the drought belong to their experience. Besides, the rainfall is deficient due to drought and drop of the water resources levels which also has impacted on the agricultural productions in the study area. The agricultural productions such as crops, livestock, vegetables, and fruits have declined. Thus, the farmers have lost their agricultural productions due to impacts of drought, and their livelihoods (income, household consumptions, labor, and rural community) have been affected as well.

The farmers' adaption strategies are the on-farm and off-farm adaptation strategies that they can reduce the impacts of drought upon their farming and livelihoods. The primary on-farm adaptation strategies are delaying of plantation date, changing the cropping system, using mulch, applying the dripping system of irrigation. On the other hand, the primary off-farm strategies are income diversification, business/trade, migration, non-agricultural labor, and selling assets.

The findings and results of this study are consistent with existing literature on drought in Afghanistan and other regions and will be useful and useful for application of adaptation strategies into drought, understanding the drought impacts on agricultural productions, and farmer's livelihoods. Because of no done any researches about to drought in the study area, this thesis will assist the regional and rural planners, officials, rural related sectors, and other departments that they formulate the development plans, extending useful policies and services. Thus, the farmers can cope with drought with using the useful adaptation strategies and sustain their livelihoods.

iii

Table of Contents

Chapter Title Page

Title Page i Acknowledgements ii Abstract iii Table of Contents iv List of Tables vi List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background of the Study 1 1.2 The Strategies for Drought Risk Management in 5 Afghanistan 1.3 The Rationale of the Study /Problem Statement 7 1.4 Research Objectives 9 1.5 Scope and Limitations 10 1.6 Conceptual Framework 10

2 Literature Review 12 2.1 Understanding Concept of Drought 12 2.2 Drought Characteristics and Types 13 2.3 Potential Impacts of Drought 15 2.4 The Trend of Drought in Afghanistan 16 2.5 Impact of Drought on Water Resources and Agricultural 18 Sectors in Afghanistan 2.6 Impact of Drought on Livelihood and Food Security in 20 Afghanistan 2.7 Drought Adaptation 21 2.8 Drought Adaptation in Afghanistan 24 2.9 Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Drought 26 2.10 Risk Transfer Mechanism for Drought Risk Mitigation 28

3 Research Methodology 36 3.1 Research Design 36 3.2 Province Outlook 37 3.3 The Study Area 43 3.4 Sampling Methods 48 3.5 Data Sources 49 3.6 Data Analysis 50

4 Results and Discussion 52 4.1 Socioeconomic Profile of Respondents 52 4.2 Farmers' Understanding, Experiences, and Interpretation 56 of Drought 4.3 Impacts of Drought 61 4.4 Farmers' Current Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the 70 Impacts of Drought in the Study Area

4.5 Farmers' Measures of Drought Risk Reduction 76

5 Conclusion and Recommendations 79 5.1 Summary 79 5.2 Conclusion 81 5.3 Recommendation 81

6 References 84

7 Appendices 90

List of Tables

Table Title Page

2.2 Benefits Amount of Insurance in the World in June 2017 34 General Demographic (Population, Sex, and Sex Ratio and Other 3.1 42 Important Information) of the Kabul Province' Districts. 2004 3.2 The distribution of land area in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. 46 Annual agricultural tons incomes in USD $ by hectare of land in 3.3 46 2008 Farmers' products in kg in the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz 3.4 47 districts) 3.5 Sample Size 49 4.1 Classification of Respondents by Age 52 Classification of Respondents by Years of Living in the Study 4.2 53 Area 4.3 Classification of Respondents (Household Heads) by Gender 53 4.4 Statistical Information of Number of Household Worker 54 Occupational Structure of Sample Respondents' Household 4.5 54 Members 4.6 Crops Annual Income in the Study Area 55 4.7 Livestock Annual Income in the Study Area 55 4.8 Education Background of Households’ Members 56 4.9 Understanding of Drought by Farmers in the Study Area 57 4.10 Years of Farmers Living in the Study Area 58 4.11 Experiences of Drought Months by Farmers in the Study Area 58 4.12 Drought Years and Its Frequency in the Study Area (Paghman) 59 4.13 Drought Years and Its Frequency in the Study Area (Deh Sabz) 60 4.14 Ex Experience of Drought Problems in the Study Area 62 Sufficiency of Getting Livestock in a Drought Year in the Study 4.15 64 Area 4.16 Irrigation Source in the Study Area 65 4.17 Sa Satisfaction from the Water Supply in the Study Area 66 4.18 Livelihood Threatened in the Study Area 67 Decreasing Farming Income by the Impacts of Drought in the 4.19 68 Study Area 4.20 Sufficiency from Agricultural Income in the Study Area 68 4.21 Drought Impacts on farmers Assets in the Study Area 69 4.22 H Household Labor in the Study Area 70 Farmer's Adaptive Ability to Reduce the Negative Impacts of 4.23 71 Drought in the Study Area 4.24 Supp Support from the Impacts of Drought in the Study Area 71 4.25 Drought On-farm Adaptive Strategies in the Study Area 72 4.26 Seasonal Pattern in the Study Area 73 4.27 Drought Resistant Crops in the Study Area 74 The Usual Plantation Date and Growth Stages of Major Crops in 4.28 74 the Study Area The Off-farm Farmers' Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the 4.29 75 Impacts of Drought Upon Livelihoods in the Study Area 4.30 Crop Insurance Awareness in the Study Area 77

Solution Options against the Impacts of Drought in the Study 4.31 77 Area 4.32 Recommended Strategies against Drought in the Study Area 78

vii

List of Figures

Figure Title Page

1.1 Conceptual Framework 11 2.1 Average Annual Cost of the Damages Caused by Drought During 13 Different Decades since 1960 Including the Current Decade 2.2 Geographical Distribution of Drought Affected Areas in the 15 World 2.3 Map of the Provinces of Afghanistan (As of 2010) with the 17 Highest Hazard Vulnerability 2.4 The Irrigated Areas around Afghanistan 19 2.5 Comparisons of Wheat Yield with Irrigated and Rain-fed 20 Agriculture 2.6 A Narrow Pipe Irrigates the Roots Without Wasting Water in 23 Bahia, Brazil 2.7 Grow Drought Resilient Trees or Plants, Irrigation Pond and 23 Water Storage with Drilling Borehole 2.8 Irrigation Systems Providing Water in Afghanistan to Protect 25 Farmland 2.9 Irrigation Systems in Five Regions 25 2.10 Typical Irrigation Facilities in Afghanistan 26 2.11 Scaling up Index Insurance for Smallholder Farmers 32 3.1 Research Design 36 3.2 Total Annual of Precipitation at the Kabul province between 2007 38 and 2016 3.3 The average of temperature at the Kabul province between 2007 38 and 2016 3.4 Geographical Distribution of Kabul Province and Study Area 43 3.5 Map of Paghman District in Kabul Province of Afghanistan 44 3.6 Map of Deh Sabz District in Kabul Province of Afghanistan 45 District Atlas 4.1 Education Background of Households’ Members 56 4.2 Total Precipitation in (mm) Monthly in Paghman in 2017, and 61 Average in Kabul Region (2007-2017) 4.3 Comparison of Annual Average Precipitation between 2008 and 61 2017, and Year 2017 (Jan-Dec) in Paghman 4.4 The Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in 63 Paghman District Comparing to before Drought Condition 4.5 The Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in Deh 63 Sabz District Comparing to before Drought Condition 4.6 Groundwater Level Difference between 2007 and 2017 in 66 Paghman Area 4.7 Time Spent in Various Temperature Bands and the Growing 73 Season in Kabul Province

viii

List of Abbreviations

ACC Afghan Conservation Crops AGI Afghan Global Insurance AHAP Afghanistan Humanitarian Action Plan AISA Afghanistan Investment Support Agency ANAPA Afghanistan’s National Adaptation Plan of Action ANDMA Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANIC Afghan National Insurance Company BDID British Department for International Development CCAFS Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters DDP Department for Disaster Preparedness DJF December, January, February DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EM-DAT Emergency Events Database FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FSAC Food Security and Agriculture Cluster GDP Gross Domestic Product HFA Hyogo Framework for Action IBI Index-Based Insurance ICA Insurance Corporation of Afghanistan ICT Information and Communication Technology IDMPs Integrated Drought Management Programs IPCC International Panel on Climate Change IPMI International Private Medical Insurance JJA June, July, August LDCs Least Developed Countries LLC Limited Liability Company LTC Long-Term Care MAM March, April, May MoF Ministry of Finance MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NABDP National Area Based Development Program NDRRP National Disaster Risk Reduction Plan NE North East NEEP National Emergency Employment Program NEPA National Environmental Protection Agency NSP National Solidarity Program NW North West PPP Public Private Partnership SADMS South Asia Drought Monitoring System SE South East SFSA Seasonal Food Security Assessment in Afghanistan SON September, October, November SW South West TMI Thorn Waite’s Moisture Index UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Program

UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction USA United States of America USAID United States Agency for International Development WFP World Food Program WMO World Meteorological Organization

Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Afghanistan is a landlocked, mountainous, and dry country, located in the arid sub‐tropics at 33.9391° N, 67.7100° E north of the equator in Central Asia with a long narrow strip in the northeast (the Wakhan corridor). The total area of Afghanistan is 647500 sq. Km (250001 sq. mi) that are extending with 1240 km (770 mi) from the northeast (NE) to the southwest (SW), and with 560 km (350 mi) from the southeast (SE) to the northwest (NW). Afghanistan with a total boundary length of 5529 km (3436 mi) is bounded from the north by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, from the extreme northeast by China, from the east and south by Pakistan, and from the west by Iran. Afghanistan's capital city is Kabul which, located in the east-central part of the country. The total population of Afghanistan is estimated at 36.37 million in 2018 based on the most recent United Nations (UN) data that is placed at number 38 in the community among the 193 nations of the world. It has an arid and semi-arid continental climate with cold winters and hot summers. The lowland plains in the south of Afghanistan have extreme seasonal variations in temperature where average temperatures in the summer (June, July, August) is more than 33°C, and mean temperature in the winter (DJF) (December, January, February) is 10°C (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009).

Many parts of the country which are in high altitude have a lower average temperature around all year summer does not exceed more than 15°C, and winter temperature is below zero, characterized by large areas with little to no precipitation. Precipitation which falls mostly as snow on high mountains from winter storms (of Mediterranean origin) between November and April with the peak in February/March. Due to the Asian summer monsoon system, the snow season in Afghanistan is considerably varying with elevation; furthermore makes less rainfall. Dust storms are a significant part of the climate system associated with northern winds in warm months in country. Despite there is an absence of good long-term climatic records in Afghanistan, the available data and trends from neighboring countries indicate that mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6°C since 1960, and at an average rate of around 0.13°C over a decade. Most increases have been marked during the autumn (SON) (September, October, November) with an average rate of 0.29°C per decade, and a significant increase in the number of sweltering days and nights.

Changing precipitation regimes within Afghanistan vary more than the change in temperature. Mean rainfall over Afghanistan has decreased slightly (at an average rate of 0.5mm per month (or 2 percent per decade) since 1960. The mean precipitation is mainly due to rainfall decrease to 2.7mm per month (6.6 percent per decade) in spring (MAM) (March, April, May). The climate of temperate and semitropical characteristics is caused by the ranges in altitude and marks the seasons clearly throughout the country. Wide temperature variations from season to season and day to night are usual. Mean rainfall is about 25 to 30 cm (10 to 12 in) in spring while precipitation and snowfall occur in winter. Wind velocity in Afghanistan is high especially in its western parts. The World Bank reports the household consumption during 2016 in Afghanistan remains $4.31 billion based on a GDP of $4.6 billion, measured in current dollars rather than PPP (Public Private Partnership). GDP per capita is US$1957.29 (IMF, 2016 EST.). Household consumption includes expenditures of individuals, households, and nongovernmental organizations on goods and services, excluding purchases of dwellings. It is estimated that in 2015 about 36% 1

of the population have had income below the poverty rate line (UNDP, 2015). Population dependent on agriculture is 75% in Afghanistan (USAID, 2014). About 12% of the land is arable and less than 6% is under cultivation in the country. Afghan farmers grow enough rice, potatoes, pulses, nuts, and seeds to meet the country's needs, and they also depend on imports for wheat, sugar, and edible fats and oils. Fruit, both fresh and preserved are a staple food for many Afghans. Agricultural production in Afghanistan is constrained due to erratic winter snow and spring rains. Water irrigation is primitive, and there is a relatively little use of machines, chemical fertilizer, or pesticides. Agricultural region of Afghanistan has an altitude of 400-2000 meters with typical meteorological characteristics. In this region, the rainfall starts in October and in until March it reaches its peak and ends in May. Water shortage frequently occurs in the latter part of the planting period between April to October in the summer (Kawasaki, Watanabe, Suzuki, Nishimaki, & Takahashi, 2012).

The variety of the country's crops corresponds to its topography. The areas around Qandahar, Herat, and the broad Kabul plain yields different kinds of fruits. The northern regions from Takhar to Badghis and Herat to Helmand provinces produce cotton. Corn is grown extensively in Paktia and Nangarhar provinces, and rice is mainly grown in Kunduz, Baghlan, and Laghman provinces. Wheat is common in several regions and makes up 70% of all grain production. Aggregate wheat production in 2005 was estimated at 4 million tons, up from 1.6 million tons in 2001. Following wheat, the most important crops in 2004 were barley (400,000 tons), corn (250,000 tons), rice (145,000 tons), and cotton (18,507 tons). Nuts and fruit, including pistachios, almonds, grapes, melons, apricots, cherries, figs, mulberries, and pomegranates, are among Afghanistan's most important horticultural crops. By-products of orchard fruits such as pomegranate rind were traditionally used to dye carpets to get deep red color (FOA, 2008).

Drought is regarded as one of the most critical environmental disasters and adversely affected Europe, Africa, Australia, South America, and Asia on a large scale over different time periods (Mishra and Singh, 2010). In Central and Southwest Asia particularly in Iran, Afghanistan, western Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, the drought was the worst in the last 50 years, and it had widespread negative impacts on social and economic sectors. The drought has resulted in near total failure of rain-fed agriculture and has substantially reduced irrigated farm production. Irrigation infrastructure has severely dropped. Therefore, many farmers cannot secure reliable water supply to resume farming.

Because of around 80 percent of the population of Afghanistan is living in rural areas, and most of these people are subsistence farmers. Therefore, natural disasters such as drought alter traditional patterns and quantities of water supply. As a result, most of the Afghan population cannot improve their agricultural production, they cannot fulfill their basic human needs, and finally, they soon will meet poverty. For example, Afghanistan imports wheat every year from the neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, and increases these imports significantly during the drought years, and crop diversity has reduced by 71% and productivity by over 50% in the country. Animal population, productivity, and selling price also have decreased significantly. Because of the lack of employment opportunities migration has increased and desperate measures including apprentice child labor and early marriage of girls have increased (Agrawal et al. 2001).

Drought is a major cause of yield and quality loss in cereal crops across the world's cereal growing areas, especially Asian Least Developed Countries (LDCs) (Akanda, 2010; Bagci et al., 2007; Passioura, 2007; Sheng and Xiuling, 2004). Almost half (47%) of the terrestrial

land surface in the world, equal to 6.45 billion hectares, is comprised of drylands and are distributed among all the different regions of the earth. One billion hectares are hyper-arid, and 5.45 billion hectares are made up of arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas. There are 70% (5.2 billion hectares) of drylands around the world used for agriculture with limited productivity where, crop yield depends on the mode of drought (UNEP, 1997). Although rice, maize, and wheat product are grown in Asian LDCs, the drought stress is a frequent phenomenon across the Asian LDCs (Akanda, 2010; Li, 1990). Drought stress, often accompanied by many other environmental stress factors, including high temperature, high solar radiation, and wind (Karim & Rahman, 2015).

Drought duration had destructive effects on provincial livelihood capitals and outcomes, while the negative influences of drought severity were far more restricted than drought duration. Complete mediation of livelihood assets in the relationship between drought intensity and inequality was confirmed (Khayyati & Aazami, 2016). The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall is very high in the semi-arid and arid areas prone to drought. The occurrence and the impacts of drought could change soon because of the climatic shifts and changing vulnerabilities. To reduce the threats associated with current and future drought in this region, it is essential to gain a better understanding of the drought hazard and implement risk reduction actions at the local, national, and regional levels (Wang et al., 2015). Individuals and communities typically implement a range of traditional measures to anticipate and respond to drought conditions. These measures serve as the first line of defense against drought. Sometimes the local efforts to deal with severe drought especially for the long-term sustainability of livelihoods may be insufficient (Davies, 2000).

Moreover, crafting an effective policy response has proven difficult because the effects of the drought are socially differentiated, and different dryland farming systems face unique vulnerabilities. Indeed, natural disasters are the main reason people are deficient in developing countries. Due to the drought conditions, Action Aid partners have estimated that more than 2.7millon people have wildly lost food security in the Afghanistan areas in the past 30 years. The drought conditions and lack of success in maintaining operate irrigation systems at the community, and national level has affected the agriculture and the total irrigated area. Due to contaminated water resources that caused illness and acute diarrhea across the country. The rural population suffered from a shortage of potable water and falling groundwater levels. Many shallow wells (up to 30 meters deep) dried up, and the low wheat crop is causing a severe decline in food supplies in this area shown an increase in acute malnutrition. Livestock businesses are also affected due to the limitations in animal food, leading to a steep rise in livestock food prices. The continued decimation of the livestock population has had catastrophic livelihood consequences for the Kuchi nomads and a severe adverse impact on livestock-holding farmers. Hundreds of thousands have lost their jobs (Narayan et al., 2009).

Because communities face a complex range of social, environmental, and economic challenges, to adapt these challenges, they need to build up their resilience. "Resilience" in this case means the ability to respond and adapt to change or threats in ways that are proactive build local capacity, and enhance well-being (August, City, Program, & Group, 2014). A commonly used definition of resilience is "The ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change"(Adger, Huq, & Hulme, 2003). The resilience tool provides a framework for understanding the most effective combination of short and long-term strategies for lifting families out of cycles of poverty and hunger; which factors in making households resilient

to shocks that must be understood first and then strengthened. Factors that make families resistant to shocks and stresses include: income and assets; social safety nets and social security; access to essential services such as water, healthcare, electricity; households' adaptive capacity which links to education and diversity of income sources; and the stability of all these factors over time (Adger, Huq, & Hulme, 2003).

These factors are combined into an index which gives an overall quantitative "resilience score." The score clearly shows where investments need to be made to build resilience further. By using this quantitative approach, decision makers can objectively target their actions and measure their results over time. When households want to cope with future crises or disasters, the one tool is building neighborhood social resilience which is about strengthening neighborhood level relationships and increasing community resilience. There are multiple benefits that they accrue from connecting neighbors including, decreased social isolation, better health, and increased safety, reduced material consumption and improved preparedness for emergency events. Creating neighborhood social connections fits into through interdepartmental collaboration, and simple cost-efficient actions.

There are many mechanisms for neighborhood connections and developing neighborhood relationships based on sharing resources, sharing food, place making, emergency preparedness, the use of online tools, and multi-unit residential buildings for establishing neighborly connections through the hosting of regular social events. Another social resilience factor is gender. As an example when men and women get exposed to the natural hazards elements in an equal measure, their vulnerabilities differ; they face different challenges in both regard to the response and recovery processes. For example, women will have a much higher mortality rate than men during the happing of disaster. First, they are responsible for organizing provisions for the livestock and preparing food for their families. Second, due to religious reasons, many women are not allowed to leave their homes without their husband's permission, even in the face of a risk, they cannot sit with any unknown men in one place. Therefore, social analysis tools (e.g., institutional analysis, stakeholder analysis, social assessments, environmental analysis, etc.) can better identify them, and help them to address their capacities to promote their assets and resiliency (August et al., 2014). In the last few decades, Afghanistan has been facing drastic recurrent drought with deleterious results to million people, lacking access to food production and water, cereal deficits in the millions of tons and reduction in livestock numbers, hundreds of thousands of Afghans refugees happened in 1963-64, 1966-67, 1970-71, 1999-01, 2003-04, and 2011 (Planning, 2008).

The term "Adapt" means to make something or system more suitable by altering it (Smitet et al., 1999). Adaptation refers to the process of adapting and the condition of being adapted. According to Burton (1992), the process of adaptation in social science is concerned with, "the process through which people reduce the adverse impacts of climate on their health and well-being, and gain from the opportunities which are provided by their climatic environment." Similarly, adaptation is an "adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities, and adaptation tackles the impacts of climate change" (COBAM, 2011). Therefore, adaptation is a crucial factor in drought studies. It could be proactive which referred to as planned, requires assessing the vulnerability of natural, and human-made systems as well as costs benefits of actions versus inactions, and planning alternatives accordingly. Adaptation could also be responsive to reduce the impact of

drought by taking steps and taking advantage of the opportunities presented (Omolola, 2009).

1.2 The Strategies for Drought Risk Management in Afghanistan

1.2.1 National Level Strategies for Drought Risk Management in Afghanistan

Afghanistan considered as a country that is prone to some disasters caused by natural hazards since the early 1980s. Accidents caused widespread damage and affected more than 7.5 million people in Afghanistan are earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, sandstorms, dust, floods, every year drought, and extreme winter conditions. In the last ten years, Afghanistan has been suffering from a prolonged drought which affected over 6 million Afghans mainly in the southern and eastern regions of the country. Therefore, the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) is the principal institution at the national level with the mandate to coordinate and manage all the aspects related to disasters mitigation, preparedness, and response through its federal offices. Its outline expected actions are provided in the national disaster management plan (Gupta & Consultant, 2010).

Afghanistan is among the 168 countries of the signatory to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005 -2015. The overall objective of the HFA is that it builds the resilience of nations and communities to disasters by achieving substantive reduction of disaster losses in lives, social, economic, and environmental assets of cities and countries. In the recent years, the Government of Afghanistan has made progress in disaster risk reduction. The government of Afghanistan has developed toward the priority of HFA which focuses on the DRR institutionalization and mainstreaming. Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) 2008 -2013, the National Solidarity Program, National Area-Based Development Program, and the National Emergency Employment Program (NRAP) also have developed. Even though the National Disaster Mitigation Policy is an established entity, it needs further revision to strengthen its existing mechanisms. Environmental and natural resource management is among the best-known applications to reduce flood risks, control landslides (through reforestation), and control droughts (through ecosystem conservation). Financial instruments such as insurance, calamity funds, and catastrophe bonds are useful to lessen the impact of disasters (Commitment & Aspects, nod).

There are several collaborating agencies for the "greening" (reforestation) of Afghanistan which can have a long-term disaster mitigation impacts. An environmental working group for drought mitigation has been build that is bringing government, UN agencies, and NGOs together for the relevant interventions. For example, the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) with Afghan Conservation Corps (ACC) project work together to build and restore the dams for adapting soil and water, to protect the native forests, to make ditching in the hillside for plantation, to design the terracing, to prevent the reforestation, and to manage the public nurseries. In the context of a slow onset disaster (drought) in Afghanistan cash as the dominant financial instrument is also being used to address rural vulnerability through the creation of employment opportunities. The National Emergency Employment Program (NEEP) is utilizing the emergency response and coordination to distribute cash in the affected areas. That then delivered by labor-intensive infrastructure rehabilitation and watershed management schemes. They implement those help within beneficiaries' home villages performed in close cooperation with WFP and FAO with a separate focus on food distribution, seed, and fertilizer. The Department for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) is a national body for multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration in

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). This ministerial-level department consists of three sub- departments: (1) Policy and Coordination, (2) Demining and Administration, and (3) Finance Departments. The Department for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) is given the following responsibilities and functions according to the new strategy, policy, and new structure: identification of effective measures for disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparedness activities; timely mobilization and coordination for distribution of relief; overall vulnerability reduction through prevention, mitigation, and preparedness; awareness raising for disaster prevention, mitigation, and preparation; efficient use of financial and material resources for disaster; training and public education in disaster reduction; implementation of the decisions of the national commission for disaster preparedness, and the state government; coordination of activities between various ministries, NGOs, and communities in disaster reduction; planning and organization of disaster preparedness, and mitigation activities; mobilization of national, and international resources/assistance for disaster; monitoring and supervision of disaster reduction in all concerned government bodies; surveying and assessment of high-risk areas, preparation of national disaster risk management, and contingency plans; early warning and alert; policy adviser to the president and the National Commission for Disaster Preparedness; monitoring and evaluation of provincial, and district level activities; deployment of technical and material resources in high-risk areas; emergency relief assistance to disaster victims; and preparation of quarterly, and annual progress report.

The international response to the droughts has been slow. There is now an immediate need to help Afghanistan. Finally, the longer-term support can provide Afghanistan with tools that will withstand future droughts that will help with the introduction of drought-resistant crops, river irrigation systems, non-agricultural livelihoods, and so on. Essentially, the area becomes resistant to future natural disasters by encouraging community-based natural resource management, and alternative plans for making a living and handling such emergencies. Governmental policies that are the concern with drought are other factors that they impact on farmers' adaptation strategies to drought. Official policy or procedure of drought is coping, and drought adaptation has to be useful to it can reduce the negative impacts of drought on agriculture sector and farmers.

1.2.2 Provincial Level Strategies for Drought Risk Management in Afghanistan

The Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) can also manage all of the aspects related to disasters mitigation, preparedness, and response through the provincial offices. For achieving develop of National Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (NDRRP) has to focus on greater involvement province governments. Food aid distribution, household consumption, and animal feed provision is the policy of provincial level during and after drought hazard to save lives and livelihoods. However, the aid needs to be well targeted to the peasant farmers to avoid distribution to whether landlords. Another policy of provincial level is the contributing to high prices, and limited supply is bribes and additional "taxes" to the traders. The irrigated zones offer many agricultural labor opportunities which help to buffer the impacts of drought within the provinces through increased cash income and, in some cases, payment in wheat. Therefore, vulnerable groups have benefited from cash for work programs. WFP has started subsidized bakery programs for poor urban families in some provinces where they need food distributions.

1.2.3 Local Level Strategies for Drought Risk Management in Afghanistan

The central part of society who will be affected and will be gotten the highest suffer by drought are farmers; as farming and livestock practices of farmers are under the direct effects of drought. Therefore, when drought happens, the farmers may take into account some strategies which have evolved to reduce the vulnerability of drought shocks (Adaptive approach) based on their experiences and knowledge, and they can adapt to drought. In this regards, they may change their some practices such as irrigation system, a source of water (underground water), cropping system, and plant variety (alternative crops). In some cases, who not be able to cope with drought by adapting some agro practicing, they can migrate or engaging with non-farm employment and industrial sectors to fulfill their household consumption and proceeding their livelihoods.

In Afghanistan, the local open market needs to encourage and support with cash-based interventions and practical help. As well as National Disaster Risk Reduction Plan has to consider to district administration, a delegation of power, and resources of Majlis Shura for DRR (involving the officials, NGOs, professional bodies). In response to the drought, most livestock owners have Poppy cultivation in the rise as a mechanism to maximize the profits from shrinking cultivable area, and it is a local level policy. On the other hand, village-level institutions such as shuras, and water wails are not meeting for the expectations of the farmers to manage scarce water efficiently or equitable. The traditional coping mechanisms for people at the local level, particularly for families living in the spring, Karez, and downstream irrigated agricultural areas are that they sell belongings agrarian lands, livestock, and household assets, and take loans and mortgaged lands. According to the literature review in Afghanistan (Qureshi & Akhtar, 2004), drought adaptation strategies by farmers, local people, and households have responded to the drought differently to manage their financial resources in different ways with their social liabilities. Due to drought, most of the people cannot do agricultural activity, and on-farm jobs such as fruit picking, harvesting, packing, and transportation are no longer available. Therefore, the people are surviving on relief donations from NGOs.

As a result, changing cropping patterns and limiting the irrigated area, sale of livestock and their products and doing casual labor, sale of safe assets such as jewelry, watches, domestic items and productive assets such as land, livestock, farm machinery and sewing machines, off-farm jobs and migration in nearby cities and especially neighboring countries (Pakistan and Iran) to supplement their household income and other necessities of life are the most reliable drought coping strategy under drought conditions at local level or farmers' adaptation strategies in Afghanistan.

1.3 The Rationale of the Study /Problem Statement

Drought impacts agricultural, such as farmers’ income, job opportunity, inputs and investment of the farming sector. Therefore, repeated failure of crops and reduction of harvesting leads to falling farm income and associated problems of food shortage, malnutrition, and the general impoverishment of local inhabitants. Moreover, drought increases the risk to food security, illness, reduction of drinking water sources, migration, loss of livestock, and eventually, in severe cases, it increases the chance of seasonal food crises. Hence, it is essential to examine the impact of drought on crop yields, existing responses and adaptation strategies by farmers to dryness, and the future adjustment options (Habiba et al., 2012).

Afghanistan is one of the Asian least developed countries which is located in Central Asia and faced with a variety of natural disasters and extreme weather such as, earthquakes, cyclones, drought, and cloudbursts, glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods, and landslides. The scientists predict that rainfall will decrease, and an average of temperatures is rising to 4°C compared with 1999 in this country. Therefore, the cause of this will be occurring of drought hazard which is likely to be the norm by 2030. The most likely adverse impacts of the drought in Afghanistan dramatically will be on the population and their sources of livelihood, such as agriculture and crop productions (Salman, Amer, & Ward, 2014).

Agriculture is the crucial productive sector for Afghanistan (more than 31% of its GDP) which is a semi-arid landlocked country (mountain represent over three-quarters of the land). This country is more vulnerable with the natural calamities (drought and floods), severe mismanagement of natural resources, and high demographic growth. About 76% to 85% of the Afghans live in rural areas that they are directly or indirectly involved in agriculture, or the agricultural products are significant for them, farming is their economic and livelihood factors, and also they were not grown entirely in the current situation. Inadequacies agriculture growth is depending on lack of seasonal precipitation, related constraints to the productive use of arable land and water, low productivity, inadequacies in post-harvest operations, and lack of commercialization of the products. Therefore, more than one-third of all Afghans (Thirty-six percent) live below the national poverty line or food insecurity, and high incidence of malnutrition is becoming high over there. It is unfortunate the unrest of three decades have not allowed that Afghanistan can improve in any direction, either agriculture or industry because agricultural products have become a good source income for the farmers (FAO, 2012).

At present, although Afghanistan is an agricultural country, most of their food requirements are being exported from it is neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asian States; as well as other numerous countries in the world. Communities in Afghanistan have an insufficient capacity to cope with drought event which increases their vulnerability to food insecurity and livelihood. In 2008, more than half of the country received less than 25 percent of average rainfall which resulted in the lowest harvest since 2002. Agricultural products in Afghanistan is strongly influenced by seasonality because production is limited and winters are very harsh in the north-east and central highland provinces with household food stocks gradually depleting, and employment at a minimum from November to April (FAOSTAT database, 2013).

Melting winter snow which is the primary source of water for farming in Afghanistan is a huge problem. Thus, when storms come at below normal levels, it will be a big concern and could result in poor agricultural production. Many Afghans partly have faced social challenges such as refugee status both inside and outside the country because of the costs of adapting water and food shortages. For example, poor access to improve seed varieties has been a persistent obstacle to agricultural development in Afghanistan (Sharp et al., 2002).

Because of the high mountain environment, Afghanistan cannot capture and store water in the rivers and reservoirs with sufficient capacity, and by the landlocked situation and steep terrain without a viable nationally-linked road transport systems cannot cheaply and efficiently ship food and grains at a national and network level. Therefore, the vulnerabilities and weaknesses occur in water administration, water supply, domestic finance, and agricultural productions for multi years (Campbell, 2015). For example, the current transportation system between the northern and southern parts of Afghanistan cannot reliably

move abundant wheat food from the north to the south with scarce wheat food. Because the north of the region has abundant water resources and food security production than the southern part; as a result, farm income and food security are both critical objectives for the country. When farming income decreases, it affects the crop, which results in abundance making the crop price increase. On the other hand, many of Afghans heavily rely on agriculture, livestock and daily wage labor for their livelihood. Therefore, limited capacity to cope with shocks can lead families to deplete their assets and reduce their food consumption.

The United Nations recently estimated that Afghanistan's population which is about 31 million and increase to 80 percent by 2050. Such an increase of population and new challenges can raise the currently stresses on demands of water resources, it can alter the precipitation patterns as well as it can increase the risk of food production on an agriculture system. (Glantz, 2005; Hanjra and Qureshi, 2010). For example, when the agricultural sector is damaging in Afghanistan, other areas such as livelihoods, and food insecurity also damage. Afghanistan faces a lack of engagement of women in disaster risk reduction activities, and gender norms affect women's access to assistance in the face of natural disaster hazards. The low literacy levels and the status of women make it difficult to empower women to promote resiliency within their communities. The women in Afghanistan lack social capital, networks, and accessibility to resources; as well as the lack of control over land and economic resources. Consequently, making women not as vital as men in Afghanistan in regards to disaster preparedness, mitigation, and rehabilitation ("The ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN," 2017).

Finally, the widespread poverty, a lack of employment opportunities, the depletion of livelihood assets during the lean season, the outbreaks of agricultural plant diseases, the limited market functionality, and food price fluctuations due to occurring drought event in Afghanistan are all factors that they can curb household purchasing power particularly among to the wage laborers who are sick and unskilled. There were not any studies to date investigating the farm level particularly in the context of the study area to seek farmers' adaptation strategies toward drought. Many researchers are focused their research on the impact of droughts on agriculture, food production, land degradation, economy, water shortages, and society. However, it does not highlight the current situation of farmers on how they cope with existing drought conditions. Therefore, this study intends to examine the farmers' adaptation strategies to drought and seeks the various adaptation practices of farmers in a comprehensive manner. The adaptation concept is rather new for the research community and the natural and social sciences in Afghanistan. It is also useful for the fields of disaster and natural hazards risk management that they can reduce the impacts of drought risk in the ecology. Adaptation to drought by this study will help understanding and adjustment by the community and individual farmers to respond to the negative impacts or enhance the farmers' adaptive capacity.

1.4 Research Objectives

The overall objective of this research is to study the perception of the impacts of drought on the farming households and their livelihood in Kabul province of Afghanistan, especially in the study area. This study also aims to find the adaptation strategies and identify the procedure to minimize the risk of drought.

1.4.1 Specific Objectives

A. To assess the community and the farmers’ perception of drought.

B. To examine the impacts of drought on agriculture and farming households' livelihoods.

C. To identify the farmers’ current adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of drought, and to suggest disaster risk reduction measures.

Research Questions for Specific Objective 1: How do farmers perceive the trends and causes of drought? Research Questions for Specific objective 2: What are the impacts of drought on farmers' financial livelihood? Research Questions for Specific objective 3: What are the primary adaptation practices on households in the context of drought?

1.5 Scope and Limitations

Because agriculture is the backbone in Afghanistan both farmers, non-farmers, and people in rural areas, their incomes are dependent on agricultural and non-agricultural practices. Therefore, the study is centered around the incomes and productions of the farmers whose livelihood are dependent on farming practices. Also, this study will be focused on the adaptation strategies of the community and individual farmers to reduce the negative economic impacts of drought. The research will be done in two districts Paghman and Deh Sabz Districts from the Kabul province in central Afghanistan. The limitation of this study would be the limitation of time, security situation and problems, and lack of secondary data (meteorological and hydrological data).

1.6 Conceptual Framework

The conceptual framework of the study explains the different drought issues. It shows how the research can follow the farmers' perception to the drought and how can counsel them. Then explains the drought impacts on farmers farming and livelihood. Finally, based on the conceptual framework of the study, the main objective and focus would be on identifying the farmers' current adaptation strategies to reduce economic impacts drought in the study area. Diffusion and adoption of the existing practices and future initiatives presented in the way forward and coping sections could help Afghanistan to achieve reasonable resilience against droughts. However, a conceptual framework needs to develop the study of drought mitigation techniques which are adopted by drought victims and can also support them.

Drought Hazard

Reduce Impacts of Impacts of Drought: Drought and Losses Support: Farmers’ 1. Impacts on Perception, 1. On-farm Strategies Farming Measure, and Productions Awareness of - Delaying of plantation Drought date - Agricultural Productions - Farmers' Drought - Changing the Crops Understanding System - Livestock Production - Farmers' Drought - Dripping System of Experiences Irrigation Techniques 2. Impact on Economic 1. Drought Situation - Plastic Mulch Livelihoods 2. Drought Intensity - Drought Resistant Crop - Agricultural Varieties- Irrigation Techniques Income 3. Drought Duration - Agricultural Labor 2. Off-farm Strategies

- Agro-related - Income diversification Sectors - Business/ Trade

Recommendation to Manage the Future Impacts of Drought by Mitigation Techniques, and Conclusion

Figure 1.1 Conceptual Framework

Chapter 2 Literature Review

2.1 Understanding Concept of Drought

According to the United Nations Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Terminology, Hazard is defined as "Dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage". In professional settings, hazards are often described quantitatively by the likely frequency of occurrence of different intensities for different areas (UN/ISDR, 2009). Therefore, drought is a natural part of climate hazard. Drought is a temporary aberration and differs from aridity which restricts to low rainfall regions. The permanent feature of climate drought categorizes as a hydro-meteorological hazard (UN/ISDR, 2009).

Drought is considered to be one of the most complex and least well understood natural and slow onset hazards or phenomenon that refers to an abnormal deficiency of precipitation and environmental moisture over an extended period. Usually a season or more, and at a specific location which results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sectors, and dryness an atmospheric condition (Mishra and Singh, 2010). It also is linked to a sustained lack of water supply and in some instances excess water demand. The managing and measuring the quantity and accuracy of drought is difficult (Dai et al., 2004). It is tough to provide an absolute interpretation for drought because its physical meaning varies depending on each region. For instance, an amount of precipitation causing drought in a humid climate region may not be low enough to cause drought in an arid climate region. (Potop et al., 2012).

Drought starts unnoticed and develops cumulatively, and its impacts are not immediately observable and thus hampers lives and properties severely, and has multiple severe social, economic, environmental or ecosystems, agricultural, developmental, dryness and wildﬁre impacts. It can also have a significant negative influence on vegetation and agricultural production, forest growth, animals, and human over a sizeable area (UN/ISDR, 2009). Globally, droughts cause billions of dollars in damage and affect millions of people each year. As such, reliable drought identification plays an essential role in the planning and management of water and agricultural resources (Shamshirband et al., 2015).

For example, Fig 2.1 presents the magnitude of the economic damages caused by drought in the continents of the globe during the last six decades. The data used in Fig. One is retrieved from the Emergency Events Database EM-DAT at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRED (Below et al., 2007). Mainly, during the period (2010– 2015), the estimated economic damages of drought for America (all the continent), outweighs those of previous decades. In large part, this is due to the persistent droughts recently reported across the United States of America USA (Cheng et al., 2016; Seager et al., 2015). Including the current decade. (Sohoulande Djebou, 2017).

Figure 2.1 Average Annual Cost of the Damages Caused by Drought during Different Decades since 1960 Including the Current Decade. Estimates for the continents released by Emergency Events Database EM-DAT (http://www.emdat.be). In this figure, America stands for the entire continent including (North, Central, and South America, the Caribbean). (Sohoulande Djebou, 2017).

2.2 Drought Characteristics and Types

Since drought is a global phenomenon, it is useful to understand the pattern of various drought-related characteristics and impacts worldwide from a global development perspective. Virtually, drought is a natural part of climate and occurs in all climatic zones, and in many senses considered as a random event. Droughts' characteristics significantly vary from one region to another, and it differs from aridity which is restricted to low rainfall regions and is a permanent feature of climate (UN/ISDR, 2009). Specific parameters are regularly utilized to characterize drought. These parameters of dry spells include the duration, intensity, setting (onset and demise), and areal coverage (Panu and Sharma, 2002). Thus, the basis of time such as onset as an early season, mid-season and late season classifies the drought. (Statement, 2014). Regarding typologies and practice, there are four variants of drought including meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought, and socioeconomic drought. All four types of drought can result in significant impacts on the natural ecosystem, society and the economy (Heim et al., 2010). These four types of drought are explaining as follow:

2.2.1 Meteorological Drought

Comparing generally describes the rainfall in a particular place, and at a particular time with the average rainfall for that place is how a meteorological type of drought. Therefore, it belongs to a specific and particular location, and can lead to a depletion of soil moisture and has negative impacts on crop production (Statement, 2014).

Meteorological drought is a natural event climatic causes that can cause a severe hydrological imbalance in the affected area and results in deﬁciencies of low precipitation and supply of water, and it also differs from region to region. Meteorological drought identifies as an atmospheric condition characterized by a temporary deficiency of precipitation (Suryawanshi, 2011).

2.2.2 Hydrological Drought

The results of prolonged meteorological drought with depletion of surface and sub-surface water resources are called hydrological drought (Statement, 2014). The hydrological drought is a scenario which is related to abnormal reductions of the precipitation and can affect to the surface of hydrological processes such as, run-off, base-flow, infiltration, and evapotranspiration. It causes the lack of rainfall on water levels in the rivers, reservoirs, lakes, and aquifers. When precipitation decreases, the water level in the rivers and lakes drops; hydrological drought depends on water levels. Therefore, it can affect the hydrological ecosystem such as hydro-electrical power productions, industrial, urban water use. (Suryawanshi, 2011).

2.2.3 Agricultural Drought

When the soil moisture and rainfall situation to be inadequate to support healthy crop growth agricultural drought will occur (Statement, 2014). Generally, Agricultural drought referred to as a period of decreasing soil moisture and crop failure. That means, this type of drought adversely is affected on crop production (food production and farming). The agricultural drought occurs when the crops cannot grow in a place and a specific time due to the absence of sufficient water. "This drought does not only depend on the amount of rainfall, but it also depends on the correct use of available water. For example, when the water is not used correctly during the period of low rainfall (drought), the effect of the drought becomes more significant. Due to the reasons that agricultural drought involves soil moisture and characterizes the dryness of the root zone at the surface soil layers its concepts are more complicated (Suryawanshi, 2011). The agricultural drought has typically seen before the hydrological drought (when the water level in the rivers, lakes, and reservoirs become decrease), and after the meteorological drought (when the rainfall become decrease). Agricultural droughts can effect on irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture in different ways. The impacts of agricultural droughts in the irrigated regions are usually lower than the non- irrigated regions. Because irrigated crops rely on stocks of water if rain does not come, and non-irrigated crops depend directly on the rain as their water source if rain does not come, the crops cannot survive (Suleiman, 2014). 2.2.4 Socioeconomic Drought

This types of drought refer to the situation that occurs when physical water shortage begins to affect people. Socio-economic definitions of drought associate the supply and demand of some economic good with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought (Abaje, 2010). According to climatic classification systems, Palmer drought index or Thorn Waite's moisture index (TMI) basing on water budgets, and they are: precipitation, temperature, soil water storage capacity/loss, runoff and potential evapotranspiration, drought is a climatic term which is often used for plant water deficit stress and describing the interaction of low precipitation with manifold environmental processes (Thorn Thwaite, 1948). It differs markedly from the other types of drought because it reflects the relationship between the supply and demand for some commodity or economic good (such as, water, 14

forage, or hydroelectric power) that is dependent on precipitation. Supply varies annually as a function of precipitation or water availability. Demand also fluctuates and is often associated with a positive trend because of increasing population, development, and other factors (Suleiman, 2014). In brief, widely the meteorological drought identifies as a cause of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Moreover, commonly agricultural drought defines as a state of deficient moisture conditions which can have the adverse effect on crops, and other natural plant growth. Hydrological droughts can unusually cause of low surface runoff and shallow groundwater level in the prolonged periods of time. (Abbasi, 2014). The overall effect of the different types of drought can reduce the freshwater availability for the society; such a case referred to as a socioeconomic drought. Virtually, socioeconomic drought is the most perceivable form of drought that can cause deficiencies of public water supply and broadly can affect the economy of the most people (Abbasi, 2014). Figure 2 illustrates the geographical distribution of drought-affected areas in the world.

Figure 2.2 Geographical Distribution of Drought Affected Areas in the World

2.3 Potential Impacts of Drought For the future predictions of climate change, drought is an essential factor that can affect all environmental sectors such as, societal, economic, and agricultural sectors. Drought as a disturbance occurs over the large spatial scales. Therefore, they are potentially threatening all of the survival organisms and regional populations. That means a shortage of water which create drought directly impact on utilizing of water in the rural, urban and commercial areas, and then can indirectly threat the humans' life because of affecting on retail, business, power production and an increase of goods prices. Some of the significant potential impacts of the drought on the different sectors briefly are as below in Box 1 and Box 2.

Effects of drought on water sectors:  Influence the profitability of earthbound and aquatic habitats by causing the shortage of water. As a result of low water streams, vegetation ceases to transient exist and prompt the danger of the flame.  Water lack can increment the silt, non-nourishment, and danger of erosion after the heavy rain.  The dry period can prompt the nitrate harming of stock after overwhelming precipitation.

Economic effects of drought and water deficiency:  Expanded the costs for the supplementary bolster.  Decrease the volumes of primary production.  Lessened water stream away which can bring about issues for the generation of hydroelectric power.  Stressing on farm cash flows and income.  Noteworthy loss of income to the nation, area, and country.  Drying out yields and grasses that can cause insufficient food for the domesticated animals.

Social effects of drought:  Trouble for rural communities through welfare issues such as stress and loss of income.  Water limitations for the rural and urban populace.  Famine and malnutrition in many parts of the world where drought can lead to significant loss of the people live.

2.4 Trend of Drought in Afghanistan Since the 1970s, there is a drying trend globally and in many regions especially in high northern latitudes. From early 2000 onwards severe droughts affected vast areas of South Asia's regions including Afghanistan. Afghanistan is one of the drought-prone regions in the world that is currently suffering the most severe drought in its living memory which drought occurred on it at least once in every three years period in this past ﬁve decades (World Food program, 2016). Because over 80 percent of the annual precipitation of Afghanistan falls as snow in the mountain ranges of the country that the winter snowfall is essential and underpins the viability of much of the country's irrigated crops. For example, about 45 percent of the annual wheat crop irrigates, and the remaining 55 percent being rain-fed. The severe drought of 2007–2008 in the northern parts of Afghanistan caused low precipitation and high temperatures, and dramatically reduced the winter snowpack from its usual condition (Schroder, 2014).

According to (World Food Program, 2016) there are two types of droughts in Afghanistan. The first type of drought is caused by localized of lack of spring rainfall and rainy season and has a particularly strong impact on rain-fed agricultural and pastoral areas. The second type is caused by reduced river discharge due to reducing snowmelt in the upland areas during the spring and summer, and mostly is affecting the irrigated areas. Less winter snowfall in the mountains is resulting in less snowmelt in the spring and is reduced the rivers 16

and karez flows in the downstream areas. This distinction is crucial because these two types of droughts do not have the same climatic causes, and do not necessarily affect in the same areas. Sometimes, some areas in Afghanistan could be affected by both types of drought during the same year (World Food Program, 2016).

Over the past thirty years, the climatic risk of drought has increased, and rainfall related to it has decreased across in the most of regions in the country especially in the northern parts and the parts of the Central Highlands. These are areas where the dominant of livelihoods is related to rain-fed farming and pastoralism are highly dependent on rainfall (World Food Program, 2016). Drought in irrigated large areas is linked to climate conditions further upstream, and the drought in rain-fed areas is caused primarily by lack of local rainfall. Spring and summer water flows in all three central Afghanistan's irrigation systems (rivers, karez, and springs) and it depends in no small extent of the amount of snow that falls from the preceding winter in the Hindu Kush Mountains or in the Central Highlands where these systems originate. Figure 2.3 shows the provinces of Afghanistan (as of 2010) which are affected by the high hazards and obtain more vulnerability, especially in drought impacts.

Figure 2.3 Map of the Provinces of Afghanistan (as of 2010) with the Highest Hazard Vulnerability Source: Gupta, M., & Consultant, I. (2010). National Disaster Management Plan , 2010.

Some affection of drought in Afghanistan has shown in Box 2 as below.

Millions' people including Kuchis, millions tons of cereal crops, lots of numbers of livestock with severe drought in both rain-fed and irrigated lands have been affected in Afghanistan, such as:  Decreasing production of crops,  Migration of hundreds of thousands Afghans,  Changing in livelihood, and decrease in amount of exports,

 Decreasing the availability of ground water; dry of water resources, such as springs, collapse of levels of water in reservoirs, such as dams, major rivers, and watersheds,  Selling animals which are the main source of income, and displacing of wildlife, and  Financial losses, lack of complete access to the water and foodstuff, malnutrition, and spread of diseases.

2.5 Impact of Drought on Water Resources and Agricultural Sectors in Afghanistan

Lower snowfall in winter leads to lower snowmelt in the spring and summer, and it is also leading to reduced water flows in the downstream irrigation systems (World Food Program, 2016). The reduction in precipitation fostered a drought disaster in Afghanistan on 2001 which roughly were affected 12 million Afghans. In particular, the western half parts of the country, and Northern provinces such as Takhar, Balkh, Jowzjan, Faryab, and Badghis faced extreme conditions (FOA, 2008). Therefore, drought conditions in Afghanistan drove hundreds of thousands of Afghans toward the borders with Iran, and particularly Pakistan (UNEPA, 2008).

As Afghanistan has an arid climate, water is one of its most important resources, and its unequal distribution could lead to severe water scarcity in some regions. Water scarcity in Afghanistan can cause threaten of human livelihoods, creating environmental refugees, compounding adverse humanitarian conditions, and increasing the regional tensions. Also if an unsustainable use of water resources continues, it could threaten the agricultural production, food security, wetland ecology, and biodiversity particularly during the drought periods More than 80 percent of Afghanistan's water resources originate in the Hindu Kush Mountains at altitudes above 2000 meters. The mountains operate as a natural storage facility and source of water through the accumulation of snow during the winter, and snowmelt and rainfalls during the spring. Frozen water releases from the glaciers in the summer, and it is sustaining to the vital flow in the rivers. The recent droughts and increasing air temperatures have reduced the size of glaciers in Afghanistan, and posing additional long-term problems due to climate change. Figure 2.4 shows the irrigated areas around the Afghanistan country which are based on statistical data of the 1980s updated (Osbahr et al., 2008).

More than 2.5 million people in Afghanistan are already affected by drought, and they are vulnerable to the impacts of recurrent drought and water shortages (UNEPA, 2008). Drought risk has increased mostly in irrigated areas over the past few decades by changes in winter snowfall in the mountains where the country's five major river basins are originated. Livelihood zones that are located in the Northern, Harirod, Murghab and Helmand basins are changing by drought risk in snowfall in the Central Highlands.

Figure 2.4 Irrigated Areas around Afghanistan (FAO and AIMS 2004)

Kabul basin is changing by drought risk in snowfall in the Hindu Kush Mountains especially the northeast. Finally, the Amu Darya basin which is part of a larger transboundary catchment originating outside of Afghanistan is changing by drought risk in snowfall in the Pamir Mountains in the Wakhan corridor and by neighboring Tajikistan (UNEPA, 2008). In 2001 severe drought stopped the recharging, degraded the Sistan Lakes wetlands, and dried up the lakes, and had predictably negative impacts on their ecology. This dry condition dried out another wetland which is located near the Kabul city and is called Kol-e-Hashmat Khan. Drought and excessive extraction of groundwater in the vicinity have affected the Ab-e- Estrada and Dasht-e-Nawar lakes in Ghazni province (UNEPA, 2008).

In January and February 2008, parts of Afghanistan were facing their harshest winter in 25– 50 years. The effects of drought on food crops and livestock are similarly high. The threat posed by drought to the sustainability of the country's irrigated farming is already acutely visible in 2014, an estimated 31% of the total land ordinarily available for irrigation was uncultivated mostly due to lack of water in the river and water-basin irrigation systems (UNEPA, 2008).

Figure 2.5 shows the comparisons of wheat yield by ton per hectare (ton/ha) with irrigated and rain-fed agriculture areas around Afghanistan from 1997 to 2009. It illustrates the

irrigated wheat harvesting which is the most important agricultural production is more than the non-irrigated wheat harvesting, and during the droughts periods, the wheat harvesting has sharp decreased in both irrigated and rain-fed wheat harvesting. Finally, decreasing average rainfall in all provinces in Afghanistan partially has impacted on the planting of winter crops in late 2016 (World Food program, 2016).

Figure 2.5 Comparisons of Wheat Yield with Irrigated and Rain-fed Agriculture (UNEPA, 2008)

2.6 Impact of Drought on Livelihood and Food Security in Afghanistan

The majority of people in Afghanistan especially pastoralists and farmers are highly vulnerable and suffering from the impacts of natural disasters such as, avalanches, droughts, floods and landslides which destroy homes, crops and agricultural land, as well as markets. This environmental shock has pushed poverty, and food security. Four out of five people in Afghanistan rely on agriculture for their livelihood. The drought has significantly reduced agricultural production, increased food insecurity and diminished the ability of families to provide for themselves and cope with further hardship. Also, food insecurity due to limited production capacities has reduced access to markets as well as limited access by the humanitarian community. Households headed by women are particularly at risk of food insecurity as they cannot access to productive assets and higher dependency on markets. Families are contracting substantial debts and selling their livelihood assets (FAO, 2016).

In 2011, the culmination of failed rains and moderate onset drought led to significant losses of cereal crops and reduced grazing resources. Unable to harvest sufficient staple crops such as wheat, farming households face decreased food stocks, lower wage rates and fewer opportunities to generate income. Due to increased seed prices, farmers are unable to procure sufficient seed for the 2011/12 farming season (FAO, 2016). Pastoralists' purchasing power reduced by high food prices coupled with low livestock market prices. Water resources for livestock are estimated to be insufficient in some districts in and around the drought-affected area. Over one-quarter of livestock in drought-affected provinces had already perished as of mid-2011. As a last resort, many pastoralists have sold their remaining livestock, a key source of nutrition, and their primary household asset. Addressing critical needs in the agriculture sector is vital to increase affected populations' access to sufficient food and income sustainably, and to build their self-sufficiency and resilience (World Food Programme, 2016).

Drought in the northern parts of Afghanistan can affected food security. The farmers in these areas have a small land which they are owners. Therefore, most households only produce a few months' worths of food on their land. When drought stretch across to these areas, they will be faced by chronic food insecurity. In this case, livelihood dominated by nonagricultural activities including timber harvesting, cross-border trade, cross-border labor migration, handicrafts, etc. Food insecurity and labor migration farms will likely increase when drought increased in all parts of Increasing in the frequency and severity of drought in the productive rain-fed mixed farming areas of Afghanistan such as Kunduz and Baghlan provinces in the north. In addition to parts of the provinces of Paktia, Logar, and Nangarhar in the east has decreased the agricultural productivity and has had significant impacts on food security and livelihoods.

In 2008, the effects of a countrywide drought hit the agricultural production and food security of the Afghan population. The 2015 Seasonal Food Security Assessment in Afghanistan (SFSA) published by the country's Food Security and Agriculture Cluster (FSAC) found that the last year, at the peak of the lean season (drought season) the number of Afghans was facing with severe food insecurity. Furthermore, the study showed that those insecurities increased from 4.7 percent population to 5.9 percent population; meaning more than 1.5 million people are now considered severely in food insecure. Therefore, they cannot cope with these emergencies. As a result, they are forced to sell lands, take children out of school for work, depended on relatives for support, and displaced from their homes and lived in tents. Women who head their household almost are being severe to food insecure 50 percent more than other households in Afghanistan, and they have much lower income.

The Food Security and Agriculture Cluster estimates that there decrease in livestock numbers and food security in recent years mainly due to the prolonged drought, and 3.1 million people in Afghanistan include Nangarhar, Helmand, Farah, Faryab, Badghis, Sari Pul, Kunduz, Badakhshan and Zabul provinces assisted in maintaining their normal livelihood activities in 2017. Food and nutrition insecurity is a severe and widespread problem in Afghanistan. About 30 percent of the population is food insecure, and 40 percent of Afghan children under five years of age suffer from chronic undernutrition. The majority of vulnerable and food insecure people live in rural areas and depend on agriculture and livestock as their primary sources of livelihood. Livestock numbers are estimated to have been reduced by 50% during the prolonged period of draught due to outward migration and starvation. The effects of environmental degradation and lower agricultural output reduce the availability of animal feed, and the funds available for livestock husbandry; this is especially true for the more vulnerable Kuchi nomadic group. Reduced agricultural and pastoral productivity has the potential to impact profoundly on livelihoods, and distribution effects are most significant for the poorest and most vulnerable. Impacts on human health which increased the prevalence of disease affect labor available for agriculture and other non-farm rural economic activities (World Food Program, 2016).

2.7 Drought Adaptation

Drought induces the most critical environmental constraint such as, plant survival, distribution and crop productivity which are causing significant economic losses. Water crisis such as groundwater table decline, desertification, and drying up of perennial streams of the hilly regions of Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia (Asian LDCs) are another impacts of drought that they can be affected to the high humid flora and fauna regions. Because of the production of crops and their growth in Asian

LDCs is very influenced by drought stress. Therefore, recent plant breeding techniques which have some extent in the selection and development of crop cultivars assisted can well adapt to the drought which exists throughout Asian LDCs (Karim & Rahman, 2015). In 2016, South Asia has tolerated from one of the worst droughts with severe water shortages and crop losses. The increasing of droughts is a consequence of delays and changing in patterns of monsoon rainfall. (Natasha Nair ([email protected]).

Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli (variability, extremes, and changes) which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Adaptation responses and decisions categorized into two parts that namely measures and strategies reflecting in the range of a good adaptation response. They can develop, and also they can contribute a building adaptive capacity that it creates the information (research, data collecting and monitoring, awareness raising), supportive social structures (organizational development, working in partnership, institutions), and supportive governance (regulations, legislation, and guidance). Therefore, they need a foundation for delivering adaptation actions which will help to reduce vulnerability to climate risks, or to exploit opportunities (Uk Climate Impacts Programme, 2007). Developing countries face significant losses to extreme natural hazards. Regarding droughts planning instruments are essential to manage the water resources and diminish the losses (Mohor & Mendiondo, 2017).

Drought adaptation mechanisms are more specific to physiology and relate more to experimental design that must match the level of drought intensity, the speed of stress development, and duration specified by the hypothesized mechanism. Adaptation to the last drought in South Asia is common the stored soil moisture systems in the semi-arid tropics such as winter cropping (Rabi). Drought reduces through mitigation and preparedness (Gilbert & Medina, 2016). Prevention and preparedness against of drought involve water supply augmentation and conservation (e.g., rainwater harvesting techniques), expansion of irrigation facilities, active dealing with drought, public awareness and education, transport and communication links to ensure supply of food and other commodities during and just after a drought. Increasing water scarcity in agriculture has the needs which focusing on the strategies that help farmers to survive against to prolonged droughts and adapt to less water- intensive agricultural practice (Statement, 2014).

Immediate steps are needed to make efficient use of available surface and groundwater in drought-prone areas resorting to drip and sprinkler practices wherever possible, particularly for commercial crops including fruit orchards. Construction of watershed structures at the right place where water recharge can be enhanced will be used for life-saving irrigation at critical stages of crop growth and during drought situations (Statement, 2014). Figure 2.5 illustrates water storage with drilling borehole which is one of a good practice option for drought adaptation, and Figure 2.6 shows the grow drought resilient trees or plants. By using satellite remote sensing data and Information and Communication Technology (ICT), experts from South Asian countries will effort to develop mitigation strategies for monitoring the impact of climate change especially drought in South Asia. South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) is a comprehensive early-warning drought monitoring system to provide information in easy-to-understand maps, which pinpoint locations under distress and provide regional to district scale information about drought's effect on agriculture. The online portal would further help to make valuable information available to the larger audience promptly.

Figure 2.6 A Narrow Pipe Irrigates the Roots without Wasting Water in Bahia, Brazil Credit: Fabiana Frayssinet / IPS

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2007, future projections of climate change indicate that across in South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) which large populations depend on semi-subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods is very likely to warm during this century. Rainfall and drought in the semi- arid and sub-humid regions of South Asia are highly variable and undependable and influences agricultural productivity. Farming practices in these regions have developed as a response to such climatic risks. However, droughts can adversely affect the economic well- being of a region, but its impact reduced by taking preventive action in time.

Figure 2.7 Grow Drought Resilient Trees or Plants, Irrigation Pond and Water Storage with Drilling Borehole (Kolar district of Karnataka state, India). Ashok Kumar takes the photo.

In some cases, governmental and non-governmental (NGOs) play a critical role for assisting local groups to prepare better and respond to drought (i.e., crisis management). In some cases, these efforts will be disjointed and ad hoc which does not result in holistic, coherent, and long-term drought risk reduction programs, or a promoting proactive risk management strategy. This shift in focus was accelerated in the Near East Region by the occurrence unusually severe drought conditions from 1998 to 2001 that it is caused widespread adverse effects throughout the region.

In 2004, Agriculture Land and Water Use Commission for the Near East natural hazard planners and policymakers had been motivated to seek better strategies to reduce drought risk. Efforts must continue to maintain the momentum achieved in drought mitigation and preparedness planning in recent years in the Near East Region (FAO 2004). For adaptation in agricultural sectors these options, such as sustainable land and forest management, changing varieties, more efficient water use, altering the timing or location of cropping activities, improving the effectiveness of pest, disease, and weed management practices. Thus, making better use of seasonal climate forecasts to reduce production risks could have substantial potential to offset negative impacts from the risk and take advantage of positive impacts (Schuck et al., 2005).

A farmer may have the choice to adopt water-saving efficient technology that it can reduce his water application rates and allows him to sustain and survive through the long drought periods to minimum possible levels. However, water saving technologies for surviving during the prolonged droughts may not be feasible for low-income farmers located in less fertile and less developed regions (Ranjan, 2011).

2.8 Drought Adaptation in Afghanistan

The United Nations and its partners launched the 2009 Afghanistan Humanitarian Action Plan (HAP) on 14 January 2009 seeking over USD 603 million to build some strategies against to conflict, extreme poverty and underdevelopment, global high food prices, drought and continued displacement for most vulnerable people (Salman et al., 2017). Integrate the disciplines of hydrology, irrigation, economics, and policy brought to bear on the discovery of resilient adaptations to drought and climate stress. Storage capacity expansions in the northern part of Afghanistan is another investigated the economic performance of water although it was limited to a small region of the country, but it is a water appropriation rule for complement irrigation infrastructure as measures to promote food security in a northern region of Afghanistan (Gohar et al., 2013, 2015).

In order to help the combined effects of drought the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the British Department for International Development (DFID) are given US$3 million to 29 small-scale private as a loan fund for each provided Afghan farmer that they can enable to purchase 6000 tons of certified wheat seed from the enterprises. This activity will be carried out within the framework of Afghanistan by Variety and Seed Industry Development project which is being implemented collaboratively with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Afghan Ministry of Agriculture, and Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL). The enterprises have also begun diversifying into the other important food security crops such as vegetables, food legumes, and oil crops. There are some projects by UNDP and ministry of agriculture in Afghanistan through the planting drought resilient trees to protect.

Darunta Naghlu dam dam

Figure 2.8 Irrigation Systems Providing Water in Afghanistan to Protect Farmland Photos Taken by Juan Gonzales, Louis Berger Group (Watershed ATLAS) Photo Credit: Rumi Consultancy / World Bank

Figure 2.9 Irrigation Systems in Five Regions

Figure 2.9 depicts irrigation systems developed to reduce the impact of drought, and to support on-farm water management investments in five regions: Kabul, Baghlan, Herat, Nangarhar, and Balkh provinces covering a total of 19,000 hectares land.

Figure 2.10 Typical Irrigation Facilities in Afghanistan. A: Intake Gate in River, B: Earth Canals, C: Shallow Well, and D: Irrigation Pond.

The National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) as an independent institutional entity which is responsible for coordinating, monitoring, conservation, rehabilitation of the environment, and the implementation of the law. NEPA has established many coordinating mechanisms involving different line ministries, academia, and nongovernmental organizations to promote environmentally sustainable development in Afghanistan. Since 2001, Afghanistan has worked to strengthen its institutions and restore necessary functions and services and providing direction for climate change and drought adaptation efforts. Figure 2.6 shows the types of irrigation and facilities in Afghanistan that farmers can feed and support their farmland.

Because the primary objective of the study is the farmers' measures' technics for reduction of drought impacts, there are some types of adaptation strategies which have gained after the literature review of previous work on adaptive strategies in Afghanistan and neighboring countries, Pakistan and Iran have similar. With an application of the above countries can be achieved fulfilling of research objective; it also provides some idea about the farmers' adaptation measures on drought management against negative economic impacts of drought in Afghanistan.

2.9 Farmers' Adaptation Strategies against Drought

Adaptation techniques are the strategies that the individual and community enable to cope with or adjust to the impacts of the changes of climate in the local areas, or adaptation commonly defined as "adjustments in a system's behavior and characteristics which enhance its ability to cope with external stress'' (Ashraf, 2013). In the climate change context, adaptation means ‘‘adjustments of the ecological and socio-economic systems for responding on actual, or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts" (Smit et al., 2000). By the adaptation procedure, the ability of the society can improve, and community can tackle with climate change conditions across time scales from the short-term (e.g., seasonal, annual) to the long-term (e.g., decades, centuries). Therefore, the farmers' adaptation strategies against to drought is understanding and using the methods which farmers can developed and take action to them, and they can mainly reduce the negative 26

impacts of drought on their livelihood activities according on their real possibilities and abilities. By the adaptation strategies, farmers can deal on overcome long-term and short- term hazard stresses and shocks, and they can change their farming systems. Coping strategies for drought are more dealing with short-term hazard stresses, and adaptive strategies are more suited and more sustainable than coping strategies (Cooper et al. 2008). The concept of adaptation and adaptive capacity has initially emerged from the climate change impact assessments.

According to Campbell et al. "coping strategies are devised by farmers to buffer short-term stresses and shocks within their farming systems and often exist alongside more long-term adaptive strategies." By definition, adaptive strategies are more sustainable than coping strategies and are better suited to deal with long-term changes. The coping mechanisms of people in Afghanistan against negative economic impacts are selling agricultural lands, storing crop harvest, livestock, household assets, and taking loans and mortgaging farmlands. They also change cropping pattern and crop calendar, limiting the expenses to save money, doing casual labor. Afghans do early swinging, migration for employment, using low water consuming crops, keeping land unsown, changing, traditional irrigation to new methods, using water harvesting, and reducing wastage of water during the drought year. Drought monitoring and timely drought warnings could have a substantial impact on the successful mitigation of the impacts of drought (Bhattacharyya, Azizi, Shobair, & Mohsini, n.d.).

Crop diversification is one of the well-accepted adaptive strategies used by farmers to diffuse risk. Adger et al, report that diversification of crop considered as a way of spreading risk by farm households in their fields. Farmers adopted varieties of coping strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought on their agro-based practices. Among them, crop management, adjustment in agriculture inputs, water management, income diversification, assets depletion, expenditure adjustment, and migration were notable. Farmers have shifted to mixed cropping or intercropping because it provides an opportunity to grow more than one crop in the same field at one time. Farmers are cultivating various alternative vegetables such as potato, onion, okra, and apple trees in their farmlands. Adjustment in input use is another essential adaptive strategy practiced by the farmers. Increasing the amount of manure and its used more than needs gives strength to the trees, and more importantly, it conserves the soil moisture, and also less expensive. Farmers practice different techniques to cope with the water shortage. Increase span of watering, decrease in area, use of pipe for watering, digging of more well or tube wells, extra pruning of trees' branches, construction of water channel, sacrificing a portion of tress, etc. though, increasing span of watering strategy practiced by the farmers is a temporary solution, but it is an inevitable strategy in order to save the orchards. Ultimately, the quality and quantity of the production will be changed and will be vulnerable to the pest attacks. For example, apple trees require water every two weeks, but due to drought farmers can increase the interval from three to four weeks. Some of the farmers use the pipe for watering their field and dig more wells or tube well near the existing ones who put a more financial burden on the farmers. Trimming of trees' branches is another strategy practiced by the farmers, and they are expected to consume less water.

Leveling and narrowing the channels of the drain from a tube well to the field is another strategy practiced by the farmers. Instead of flood irrigation, installation of drip/bubbler irrigation for crops is another significant mitigating activity. However, due to the enormous cost of pipe installation farmers cannot be able to install it on a mass scale. Farmers employ 27

different off-farm adaptation practices to cope with a production shortfall. Barrett et al, reports that the diversification of incomes into non-crop production identifies as an important livelihood strategy for rural households, particularly in Africa. Seeking off-farm income generation activities like a business, wage labor, services, driving, hotel workers. Will be considered as an essential income generation activities by the farmers during the long dry period (Ashraf & Routray, 2013).

2.10 Risk Transfer Mechanism for Drought Risk Mitigation

The Bali Action Plan which was agreed by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bali Indonesia on December 2007. This basis for developing a new international agreement on climate change states that adaptation requires consideration on two strategies. One is the risk management and risk reduction strategies including risk sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance, and the other one is the disaster risk reduction strategies. Most disaster-prone region and over half of the world's entire poor area is the Asia- Pacific which poverty line in it is $1.90 per day. Therefore, the reducing impacts from and build resilience to disasters for its most vulnerable population will be necessary implications on the achievement of the 2015-2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. There are various risk transfer mechanisms for disaster risk reduction to lessen the financial capacity of disasters.

Given the lack of a traditional insurance culture in many countries in these regions, the development of cost-effective financing for disaster risk reduction will be essential and require. Thus, considerable analytical research, as well as capacity building with a focus on addressing the challenges and capitalizing on the opportunities to enhance the deployment of insurance tools and products, is also a necessity. In addition to the involvement of the private sector, disaster risk transfer mechanisms are the keys which must scale up based on the knowledge of regional institutions engagement. The current post-disaster financing including donor assistance and commercial insurance covers only a fraction of disaster losses, and creates a resilience gap, and also the costs from these disasters fall on poor and vulnerable populations. Mechanisms which promote risk transfer as a means of better managing disaster risk can close this gap, and help build resilience among nations and their populations. Consequently, national and regional stakeholders can make considerable efforts for finding and promoting innovative solutions to reduce disaster risk, and also they can build resilience. That means investments in risk transfer mechanisms can enhance access to fast and cost-effective liquidity for disaster-affected people especially poor and vulnerable populations.

Risk transfer mechanisms through regional cooperation and financing as a means of enhancing social protection for drought-affected farmers particularly in Asian countries where the number of rural poor is still high. Risk transfer mechanisms for drought risk mitigation such as crop insurance and risk/resource pooling can compensate victims against the losses of affected assets directly and can also preserve indirect assets. For example, crop insurance provides a cash injection after a period of low rainfall; meaning that farmers can maintain themselves until the next crop cycle. There are two risk transfer mechanisms for drought risk mitigation. One is the livelihood diversification which shows the change of livelihood income and approach after drought happens. Another is the insurance which a popular form of risk transfer is where coverage of risk is obtained from an insurer in exchange for ongoing pay premiums to the insurer to cope with losses after major disasters. Figure 2.4 shows the advantage of insurance which is 28

obtained from the compared by insured losses versus uninsured losses in Asia with Billions of United States dollars.

2.10.1 Livelihood Diversification

Livelihood diversification defined as a process which rural families construct the diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living. The determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty, income distribution, farm output, and gender examined. The removal of constraints and the expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable objectives because these policies give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise the living standards; culminating in international recognition of disaster risk transfer as a critical tool. For example, risk financing, insurance, and risk transfer highlighted as an investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience. When the livelihoods and livelihood diversification (carpentry, small shops, handicraft) support and protect then the people have a safety net to rely on during all stages of drought.

2.10.2 Insurance

Insurance is a means of protection from financial loss. It is a form of risk management primarily used to hedge against the risk of a contingent and uncertain loss. Therefore, insurance is the act of ensuring (protecting) property, people, and businesses. Against the risk of something happening in order to ensure something, it is necessary to pay a premium appropriate to the something which is happening. Usually, if the risk of insurance is too high, the private companies may refuse insurance. Then in these circumstances, governments sometimes will offer insurance. There are many advantages and disadvantages to insurance including an entity which provides insurance is known as an insurer, insurance company, insurance carrier or underwriter. A person or entity who buys insurance is known as an insured or policyholder. In totally, insurance categorized by twelve subcategories which are: Agricultural insurance, Deposit insurance, Flood insurance, Health insurance, Liability insurance, Life insurance, Mortgage insurance, Property insurance, Reinsurance, Self- insurance, Travel insurance, Workers' insurance, etc. Among them, only four types of insurances that everyone have needed them, and most financial experts recommend them for all of the people in the world, and they are life insurance, health insurance, auto insurance, and long-term insurance. Each one of these covers a specific aspect of peoples' lives, and each one is significant to every persons' financial future.

1. Life Insurance: Life insurance will cover "ten times yearly income." This sum can provide enough money for covering existing expenses such as funeral expenses, financial expenses, and mortgage be payments and living expenses such as loans, credit cards and taxes, child care, and future college costs. The two basic types of life insurance are Traditional Whole Life and Term Life. Whole Life is a policy that person pay on until he/she dies. Term Life is a policy for a set of amount of time. The planning of life insurance needs seeks for advising of a financial expert. There are considerable differences between the two policies that consumers should consider their age, occupation, number of dependent children, and other factors for giving them ensure from the coverage necessary of protecting their families (make, 2018).

2. Health Insurance: Health insurance is a type of insurance coverage that pays for medical and surgical expenses incurred by the insured. Health insurance can reimburse the insured

for expenses incurred from illness or injury, or pay the care provider directly. Health insurance defined as the coverage which provides for the payments of benefits as a result of sickness or injury. It includes insurance for losses from accident, medical expense, disability, or accidental death and dismemberment. Long-term care (LTC) insurance is the coverage which provides nursing-home care, home health care, personal, and adult day care for individuals above the age of 65 or with a chronic or disabling condition that needs constant supervision. LTC insurance offers more flexibility and options than many public assistance programs (Retrieved, 2017).

3. Auto Insurance: Auto insurance is a policy purchased by vehicle owners to mitigate costs associated with getting into an auto accident. Instead of paying out of pocket for auto accidents people pay annual premiums to an auto insurance company. Then the company then pays all or most of the costs associated with an auto accident or other vehicle damage. Auto insurance also protects the vehicles against theft, vandalism, or a natural disaster such as a tornado or other weather-related incidents (Retrieved, 2017).

4. Agricultural Insurance: Agricultural insurance is usually undertaken as a market-based activity by private or state sector insurance companies, often with support measures from the government. There is increased interest in risk management and insurance to promote agricultural investment and access to credit and to provide financial stability to farmers and other actors in the ago value chain. The various types of intervention which are made by governments to facilitate agricultural insurance are reviewed, based on the results of a recent international survey conducted by World Bank. While premium subsidy is the most common intervention, and other enabling measures are essential such as, the legal and regulatory framework, reinsurance, technical and administrative assistance, and linkages to government extension services in agriculture, animal health or meteorology. The main constraints and opportunities for crop and livestock insurance in developing countries are considered, such as insurance product types, hazards, vulnerability, and rural institutions which can support organization and distribution. Developing appropriate distribution channels, and linking insurance to measures which can increase agricultural productivity, such as credit, farm inputs, and services, provide an opportunity where insurance can add benefit to farmers. Agricultural insurance is complex from technical, organizational and financial standpoints, leading to many challenges for the insurance market and decisions by the government for appropriate intervention (Dick & Wang, 2010).

5. Crop Insurance: Basically, crop insurance is purchased by the agricultural producers such as, farmers, ranchers, and others that it assists in protecting themselves against the loss of their crops due to natural disasters such as, hail, drought, and floods, and also it assists in protecting themselves against to the loss of their revenue because of prices decline in agricultural commodities. Crop insurance has become more of a necessity for the framers especially after the growing instances of farmer suicides after a crop failure. The main culprit behind this is the failure of the farmer to come out of the debt trap that he had taken for cultivating his fields. With the crop insurance, the farmers can receive an indemnity amount only for the threshold and average crops difference and also for the loan amount, and also farmers can efficiently manage expenses in case of crop failure. With the crop insurance portfolio with multiple products which cover various risks, and some of them are currently available in the market can further protect crop products, and they are excess rainfall insurance, sowing failure risk cover, draught insurance plan, and many more.

For taking advantage of the crop insurance schemes, the interested farmers have to list themselves with the insurance company. The insurance companies offer appropriate coverage that includes the minimum support price guarantee or market price from the past. Farmers are required to pay the premium, and some policies are available at a little price. In the early stages, the government shares the load of premium payment. During harvest, if the market price falls below a certain price, then the insurance company pays the compensation.

Micro-insurance characterized by low premiums and coverage that typically targets at lower income individuals who are unable to afford or access more traditional insurance. Micro- insurance tends to be provided by local insurance companies with some external insurance backstop (e.g., reinsurance). Micro-insurance can cover a broad range of risks to date, and it has tended to cover health and weather risks (including crop and livestock insurance). A crop insurance plan could prove a lifesaver by providing financial assistance when it is required the most. A crop insurance plan assists in the stabilization of crop production, the related income of the farmers, and in the best allocation of resources in the production procedure. It becomes more of a necessity considering the current scenario of farmers and agricultural related issues. For example, there are some crop insurance plan that is: (1) Yield protection plan which provides essential coverage to farmers against a production loss for crops, and it also offers preventive planting and replant security. (2) Revenue protection plan that it is one of the most common plans, and it acts like a tool that allows farmers to manage their yield and price risks. (3) Revenue Projection plan with harvest price exclusion that it is the same as a revenue protection policy that it is except the cost of insurance based upon the anticipated price only. (4) Group risk protection and the group risk income protection plan protects the farmers and crops from any disastrous loss.

6 Index-based Insurance: Index insurance is a relatively new, but innovative approach to insurance providers that it pays out the benefits from the basis of a predetermined index (e.g., rainfall level) for loss of assets and investments such as, primarily working capital resulting from weather, and catastrophic events without requiring to the traditional services.

Index-based insurance is also called parametric insurance, and it is a subset of insurance products and provide compensation when the hazard-related parameters surpass as a predetermined threshold. Payments are based on the intensity of an event rather than actual loss and compared to traditional indemnity-based insurance. Parametric insurance products offer a scientific and more transparent determination of payments. Furthermore, because of that, the losses do not need to be estimated. Therefore, payments are both administratively more cost-effective to manage and faster. Lastly, because payments typically happen within days of the loss occurring, the negative impacts can be avoided (for example, a failed harvest does not lead immediately to famine). Parametric or index-based insurance is regional risk pooling and the scaling-up of data collection and risk assessments to support innovative solutions. Also, it is a move towards a proactive and cost-effective approach to financing for disaster risk reduction, and it can protect both national budgets the lives and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable populations.

Weather insurance typically takes the form of a parametric (or index-based) transaction, where the payment made if a chosen weather-index, such as 5-day rainfall amounts, exceeds some threshold. Such initiatives minimize administrative costs and moral hazard and allow companies to offer simple, affordable and transparent risk transfer solutions.

Figure 2.11 Scaling up Index Insurance for Smallholder Farmers Source: https://ccafs.cgiar.org/weather-index-based-insurance

Like any insurance product, the purpose of index-based insurance (IBI) is to compensate clients in the event of a loss. IBI is used to protect against shared risk rather than individual risks such as the risks associated with weather fluctuations, and disease outbreaks or price loss. As climate change takes hold, increasingly erratic weather and climate shifts threaten already tenuous agricultural livelihoods and food security in the developing world. Because of the high cost of verifying losses on large numbers of small landholdings, traditional loss- based insurance is not viable for remote rural smallholders. In this new paradigm, insurance payouts are pegged to easily measure environmental conditions, or an "index," that it is closely related to agricultural production losses.

Possible indices include rainfall, yields, and vegetation levels measured by satellites. When an index exceeds a certain threshold, farmers receive a fast, and efficient payout in some cases delivered via mobile phones. Typically, droughts have distinct and diverse specificity which primarily driven by the hydrology of snow and river basins, aridity anomalies variability. Relatedly, regional cooperation mechanism namely the Regional Cooperative Mechanism for Drought Monitoring and Early Warning makes available a menu of tools, services, and products that address these specificities and that can directly support index- based parametric insurance. Index-based insurance contracts provide a low-cost alternative to traditional loss-based insurance, and novel mechanisms for transferring catastrophe risks to the global financial markets are opening new windows for reinsurance arrangements. Also, new organizations like microfinance institutions (MFIs) have emerged to service the low-income sector, providing credit, and additional services such as micro insurance, either bundled by linkage to a loan, or on a stand-alone basis, targeted.

7 Government and Non- Government Insurance: Even though the private sector is providing insurance solutions governments has also entered into their industry with various insurance schemes to provide benefits to the insurers; insurance is crucial to keep the families and themselves financially secure in case of an emergency or an untoward incident. Hence, there is the top six issue mentioned below will show the difference between government and private insurance: (1) Coverage: Government insurance comprises family members getting coinsured at no extra cost. However, private insurance provides coverage for each member of the family as a separate individual that every member has to purchase a separate insurance policy. (2) Medical Facilities: Private insurance provides more options while choosing the best medical care in private or semi-private institutions. On the other hand, government insurance involves references in many cases that an alternative treatment is not available. (3) Billing: Private insurance companies provide customized billing for each item involved in healthcare. On the other hand, government insurance does not include such a thing as the money deducted directly from the policy. (4) Additional Cost: Private insurance takes care of each little aspect of health-related emergencies, and government insurance takes care of less costly expenses leaving the rest to be paid by individuals. (5) Time: A claim from a private insurance company is that everyone can get their work done within less time frame. Even though millions of customer are standing at the government insurance offices, it would take a long time for their turn to come. (6) Enrollment: The private insurance policy has a fixed age to register, and the associated benefits usually are circumstantial of childbirth or marriage. On the other hand, government insurance can be taken at any time of the year, and there are no fixed restriction parameters. Both private and government insurance have strengths and weaknesses in their respective realms. The person who wants to get insured that means what health benefits he or she would like to avail. A large number of people prefer choosing private companies to have their insurance needs met.

8. Benefit Amount of Insurance: Insurance benefit is an amount of money paid to people through a disability plan or life insurance policy. It is the most that people can receive in one period.

Table 2.2 Benefits Amount of Insurance in the World in June 2017 Beneficiaries Number of Beneficiaries Average Monthly Benefit Retired Workers and their Families 44,951,551

Retired workers 41,907,870 $1,369

Wives and husbands of retired workers 2,368,020 $712 Children of retired workers 675,661 $659

Survivors of Deceased Workers 6,011,856

Widows and widowers and parents aged 3,721,177 $1,307 60 and older Children of deceased workers 1,901,323 $840

Young widows and widowers 130,052 $9461

Disabled widows and widowers 259,304 $716 Disabled Workers and their Families 10,517,383

Disabled workers 8,755,405 $1,172

Wives and husbands of disabled workers 131,560 $325

Children of disabled workers 1,630,418 $357 Source: http://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/currentpay.cgi

Global insurance premiums grew by 2.7% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2010 to $4.3 trillion which climbing above pre-crisis levels. The return to growth and record premiums generated during the year followed by two years of decline in the real terms. Life insurance premiums increased by 3.2% in 2010, and non-life premiums by 2.1%. While industrialized countries saw an increase in premiums of around 1.4%, insurance markets in emerging economies saw rapid expansion with 11% growth in premium income.

The global insurance industry was sufficiently capitalized to withstand the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, and most insurance companies restored their capital to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010. With the continuation of the gradual recovery of the global economy, it is the insurance industry that will likely continue to see growth in their premium income both in industrialized countries and emerging markets in 2011. In 2016, the insurance amount was paid $911 billion in benefits to retired workers, disabled persons, dependents of retired, and disabled or deceased workers. Of the total benefit payments, 71 percent paid to the retirees and their families, 13 percent to survivors of deceased workers, and 16 percent to the disabled workers and their families. Total beneficiaries of insurance in the world is about 61,480,790 people. Table 3 shows the benefits amount of insurance in 2017.

2.10.3 Insurance in Afghanistan

Insurance in Afghanistan cover individuals, companies, and industries. Meanwhile, based on Ministry of Finance data, the total investment of insurance companies in Afghanistan is only Afs 782,528.333 in 2014. The figure is only from domestic investors, and no foreign investor has an investment in the insurance industry of Afghanistan yet (Republic, 2015). The following insurance products offered by three domestic insurance companies of Afghanistan {Insurance Corporation of Afghanistan (ICA), Afghan Global Insurance (AGI), and Afghan National Insurance Company (ANIC)}: Medical health insurance; Fleet aviation, general aviation, refueling, and associated liabilities; Marine, cargo, and transit; Construction /engineering; Defense base act; Personal accident; Professional indemnity; Property /business interruption; Political risk; General third party liability; Bankers blanket bond, cash in transit, and associated lines; Construction, plant, and equipment; Employers' liability; Travel insurance; Fleet motor insurance; etc.

Afghanistan has an independent international private medical insurance (IPMI) that the experts help organizations and individuals to get the best cover, and to manage the policies and claims, knowledgeable, and efficiently (Republic, 2015). Afghan Global Insurance (AGI) launched in 2010 that it is a full-service general insurance solutions provider, offering a variety of policies to the private sector, government, NGO's, and individuals throughout Afghanistan with offering a complete range of general insurance products. They reinsured by world's A-rated ("A" rated insurance company that means the ability to repay creditors and paid any claims presented) largest companies. AGI believe in offering innovative and relevant insurance solutions, and each policy tailored to the client's requirements. Each Product offering backed by international, local expertise, and unparalleled claims services. AGI has to date that it is arranged insurance coverage more than 10 billion US dollars on behalf of clients operating in all sectors of the economy, and has a highly qualified staff of international and Afghan professionals. Afghan Global Insurance Ltd Company licensed from Insurance Department, Ministry of Finance (MoF), Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and it is also registered under AISA (Afghanistan Investment Support Agency) to do commercial operations in the country. Being a leading private Insurers in the country, Afghan Global Insurance Ltd Company is the company that offers a complete range of general insurance products including Fire, Property, Liability, Marine-Cargo, Health, and Personal lines insurance as well as several specialized financial lines and Customer services (Republic, 2015).

In Afghanistan where drought risk viewed as a national security concern that the absence of transparency about the cost of risk is no incentive on the part of homeowners, local councils, or land developers to improve the ‘risks cape', but insurers are only the actors that they can prepare immediate financial incentives to acknowledge these risks. An example of online drought monitoring given by the South Asia Drought Monitor (SADM), a project which, until 2004, facilitated information on the web, based on remote sensing data, drought-related indices, and GIS. The project aimed at supplying timely information on drought onset, progression, and extent. This near-real-time drought monitoring and reporting system covered Afghanistan, Pakistan and western parts of India, and facilitated information at the district or village.

Chapter 3 Research Methodology

3.1 Research Design

This research study is based on survey design, and covered the attempts to examine the drought impacts on agricultural production of farmers' livelihoods and analyze the farmers' adaptation strategies to drought, and developed to review the awareness of people about the drought. In this regard, it aimed to find out the on-farm and off-farm adaptation strategies which were applied by farmers to reduce the impacts of drought on their farming and livelihoods. Finally, this research had recommended some strategies that would facilitate farmers as well as government to manage future drought impacts and minimize the risk of drought. Therefore, this research study is a combination of exploratory and explanatory research design (Fig 3.1).

Research Design

Literature Review

Research Objectives

Secondary Data: Primary Data:  Questionnaire Survey  Document and Reports Data Collection  Observation  Internet Sources  Key Informant  District Department and Other

Necessary Data:  Farmers’ Perception of Drought Necessary Data:  Impacts of Drought on  Drought impacts Agricultural Productions, and Data Processing  Climate Information Farmers’ Livelihood  Any Policies to  Farmers Adaptation Strategies into Drought Drought

Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis  Descriptive  Qualitative Statement Statistic Data Analysis  Farmers' Agricultural  SPSS Development History  Excel

Result and Discussion

Conclusion and Recommendation

Figure 3.1 Research Design

The research will examine impacts of drought over the agricultural productivity at rural setting on their livelihood and find out the adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of the drought risk from the agricultural productivity in the crop yields in the study area. For the structure of research design: survey through the structured questionnaires at household and community level, the questionnaires for the key interview and group discussion constructed for primary data collection had conducted. Secondary data and information from the Ministry of Power and Water Resources, Department of Hydrometeorology from the Ministry of Transport and Tourism, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Document and Reports from the internet sources and district department, and others had collected. Combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection method are used for this study.

3.2 Province Outlook

3.2.1 Location and Climate

Kabul province as a central province located in an eastern valley in Afghanistan between 34° 32' 38.0256'' N (34.543896 North) east latitude and 69° 9' 38.3472'' E (69.160652 East) north longitude. This province is situated at an elevation of 1,800 m (6000 feet) above the sea level and surrounded by towering mountains from north to south and from east to west. Paghman Mountains in the south-east, the Crough Mountain in the south-west, the Shirdarwaza in the northeast, the Charikar in the north, and the Tangi Gharow Mountains located in the west of Kabul province. It bordered by the provinces of Parwan and Kapisa to the Northeast, Laghman province to the East, Nangarhar province to the Southeast, Logar province to the South, and Maidan Wardak province to the Southwest.

The climate of Kabul province is mainly dry, continental, and semi-arid (hot and cold) or steppe with four seasons. The annual rainfall is 400 mm and contains from the mostly rain fed and fertile rangeland which provides vital grazing grounds for the herds of nomads Kuchi over the three months of the summer. Kabul is very dry and dusty because there are little amounts of precipitation from May to November, Extreme temperature changes are occurred between nights today, season to season, and place to place. The daily temperature of Kabul in the winter soars to -15 to -20 degrees Celsius (°C), and in the summer is to +15 to +38°C. The coldest month of the year is January which the average temperature reaches to -12°C, and the hottest month is July which the average temperature soars to 25°C. The maximum temperature has been recorded about +36.9°C in July, and its minimum temperature is about -21.7°C in February (MAAHF, Dec. 2005).

Record and keeping climate data in Afghanistan ceased around 1980 year, and few climatic data are available for Kabul until 2003 or later. Valuable information from drought monitoring shows that there were several years with little or no precipitation. Kabul province which the study area is located on it lies outside the sphere of monsoon currents. Therefore, it has irregular and little precipitation. Because precipitation plays a crucial role on farmer’s lives, their crop cultivation as well as the everyday lives of the residents of this province. As the figure 3.2 shows that the amount of annual precipitation during in ten years (2007-2016) has been fluctuated over the last years and not to be changed too much, but the two last year (2015 and 2016) has decreased. The precipitation which had measured between 2007 and 2016 shows that the average annual precipitation is 313.11 mm and was below normal levels, and water shortages in 2016. It can be seen that the annual mean temperature in Kabul province rose from 2007 to 2016. This province has experienced an average daytime

temperature of up to 16.5°C, and maybe continued to rise in 2017, while the amount of precipitation decreased lower this years (between 2007 and 2016).

Total Amount of Precipitation (mm) 450 385.6 400 361 369 375.6 325 320 350 295.2 313.11 300 264.8 250.1 250 184.8 200 150 100 50 precipitation (mm) precipitation 0

Years Precipitation (mm)

Figure 3.2 Total Annual of Precipitation at the Kabul province between 2007 and Source:2016 Data from Kabul Meteorological Department (2007-2016) which is analyzed. 2018

The average annual temperature has been increased in last 10 years. This data also matches the precipitation trend in the Kabul province. In 2016, the areas in Kabul province was much warmer and drier than usual that was on record for the past 10 years. High temperature during 2016 can be the key problem in Kabul province, and if continued in the next years, it will be cause of the drought and will be affected most of the crops.

Annual Average Temperature (c°) 16.5

) 15.5 °

14.5

DEGREE (C DEGREE 14

13.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

YEARS Temperature (c°)

Figure 3.3 The average of temperature at the Kabul province between 2007 and 2016 Source: Data from Kabul Meteorological Department (2007-2016) which is analyzed. 2018

This background information and climate data reviews revealed that Kabul province are drought prone area because there is some change in the total precipitation and mean temperature in this province which is study area is located there.

3.2.2 Administrative Division, Population, and Education

The Kabul province is multi-ethnic. As of 2003, is composed of 45% Tajik, 25% Hazara, 25% Pashtun, 2% Uzbeks, 1% Baloch, 1% Turkmen, and 1% Hindu. The Dari and Pashto languages are widely used in the region although Dari serves as the lingua franca. Multilingualism is common throughout the area, particularly among the Pashtun people. The total area of Kabul province is 4,585 km² (1,723 sq. mi) that half area or more than 56. 3% of the total area contains with a mountainous region. Kabul's population has tripled in size since late 2001, and approximately it is 4.5 million people that perhaps it is making Kabul the world's fastest growing city in the last eight years. (River, 2009). The Kabul province has 1,053 villages which divided into 22 municipality and 14 administrative units. Around 52% of Kabul's recorded population is male. A total of 253, 772 students are studying in the various educational institutions in Kabul province which 86,555 of them are girls' students. Around 5,299 teachers impart education to the students which 1, 629 of them are female teachers. As many as 31 public and 80 private universities are functioning in Kabul province while 150,000 students enrolled in public higher education, and 100,000 others are in the private institutions that around 25 % of the students are girls. Most of the schools in Kabul province were used as a battlefield during the wars, and the majority of them were demolished. Nowadays, most of the young children are sent by their parents for works to support live costs of their parents (MAAHF, Dec. 2005).

3.2.3 Water Resource and Agriculture

Kabul has only one river which is called the Kabul River. The Kabul River rises at the Paghman Mountain toward South Pass about 70 km (43 mi) west of Kabul. It flows in an easterly direction, then past Kabul, and through go to Jalalabad city, and then on to Dakka where it enters Pakistani territory and finally runs into the Indus at Attock (MAAHF, Dec. 2005). The irrigated areas around the Kabul populated areas which produce much of the country's grain, vegetables, fruits and cereals are heavily dependent on irrigation from the Kabul River and its tributaries which are partly fed by snowmelt from the Hindu Kush, and have been particularly affected due to reduced spring snowmelt from the Hindu Kush (World Food Program, 2016). Because the Irrigation is useful for infiltration of the underlying aquifer, and it only provided that surface water would increase. Thus, the traditional farming and irrigation practices for Kabul provinces is important to be discussed here. The irrigation systems in Kabul provinces fed by diverted rivers, and have constituted of all of water resources belongs to the traditional underground (groundwater), such as aquifers, wells, karezes (underground channels), springs, etc. and surface water, such as rains, rivers, canals, streams, etc.

Traditional irrigation systems and water management infrastructures in Kabul Afghanistan have around hundreds of years' history. These irrigation systems have highly complex management, and the distribution of water is organized in each villages by the collective of people which is called "shurha". It is done through the person who would be chosen by this "shurha" as a water master and locally called “Mirab”. Mirab is usually the landowner, and the Mirab system varies from region to region, but among of them is exist some commons. He will managed the distribution of water according to the regular schedule (maybe twice in

a week for different hours which is called "par"), and every farmers should be follow this rule for distribution of water. The job of the Mirab is effectively organize the distribution of water, manager of water rights, resolve arising water related argument, organize the cleaning, and maintenance of the irrigation system. One of the major traditional water management system in Afghanistan for irrigation, human and household consumption as well as providing drinking water and water for livestock is Karez. Karez are a type of underground irrigation canal which are running between an aquifer (groundwater source) on the piedmont (mountain or higher elevation) toward a garden or an arid plain. This canal with a series of wells where the water flows with gentle slopes through gravity from the water level and is entered as a “mother well” to the end point such as “daylight point”. At the daylight point there is a pool for water storage called a "hawz", and from the "hawz" the water is distributed by the above ground canals. In fact the Karez system has been followed out back to pre-Roman times which is called with different names in the different regions. In the parts of Europe is known as galleria, and in the North Africa is known as foggara/khattera. Due to continuous drought over the last years, the capacity of all traditional groundwater irrigation systems have been reduced, or dried up completely, and about 60% of the karezs are not in use. Basically, well is a hole that will drilled into the ground to access the contained water in an aquifer? It needs to a pipe and a pump to pull out the water from the ground, and it also needs to a screen to filter out the unwanted particles that could clog the pipe. Wells are extremely important for all societies. In many places wells provide a reliable and wide supply of water for home uses, irrigation, and industries, in where the surface water is low (“Social Realities of the Karez System. Case Study from Wardak,” 2011).

Another major traditional water management system in Kabul province of Afghanistan is streams which the most of their water typically is derived from the both form rain and snow of precipitation. A stream is a body of surface water which is flowing within the bed and the edges of a channel, and encompasses surface and groundwater fluxes. Depending on its location or certain characteristics, a stream may be referred to by a variety of local or regional names. Long large streams are usually called as rivers. Streams are important as conduits in the water cycle, instruments in groundwater recharge, and corridors for fish and wildlife migration. The study of streams and waterways in general is known as surface hydrology and is a core element of environmental geography (World Food Program, 2016).

Water management from stream in Kabul is like the karez, but the differences is that the streams water directly comes from the main Kabul River which don't have too deep high like karez. This traditional irrigation system also be done through the person who called “Mirab”. Mirab usually will manage the distribution of water according to the regular schedule (maybe twice in a week for different hours which is called "par"), and every farmers should be follow this rule for distribution of water. Irrigated cereal, orchard, and horticulture producing zones around Kabul which spread across Kabul, Wardak and Parwan provinces are relatively food secure with most household staple food coming from own production or sharecropping. Better off households earn income from selling surplus grain, fruits and vegetables and some livestock products to the Kabul market where then they are distributed nationally (Houben et al. 2009).

Banks and Soldal (2002) reported that groundwater level had decreased around 4–6 min Kabul during the drought period 1998–2002. In some other areas, groundwater level decreased around as much as10 m. Between the 1960s and early 2000s in some parts of the city groundwater level had decreased from 6–7 m. from the monitoring of AGS (Arkansas

Geological Survey) with the 167 wells in the central Kabul sub-basin, decreasing groundwater levels of about 3 m were recorded from 2004 to 2007, and about 15 m from 2008 to 2012. This widespread decreases in water levels are the product of long-term drought the main livelihood strategies in Kabul province are agriculture including orchard and cereal productions, livestock husbandry, trade, civil services, industries, and both formal and informal labor. The total arable land in the Kabul province includes a mix of primarily irrigated land and only has a small area of rain-fed (non-irrigated) land. 6% of the rain-fed land is available for wheat crops while the main agriculture products include wheat, maize (corns), potato, barley, onions, vegetables, and other grains, and also some different fruits grow on the remaining 94% of irrigated land. However, the wheat product is not sufficient for Kabul province residents, and fruits exported to other provinces. The reduced production also has significant impacts on food security implications, and livelihood incomes for Kabul and its surrounding areas. The livestock in Kabul province estimated at around one million.

There are 125, 563 hectares of agriculture land in Kabul province, and the number of farmers to be around 60,000. Agriculture products of Kabul province are estimated around 72 % fruit, 17 % grains, 10 % vegetable, and one % other crops (MAAHF, Dec. 2005). Decreased agricultural productivity because of declining spring rainfall in these zones can have significant impacts on food security and livelihoods. The drought of 1998–2001 negatively affected Afghanistan's hydroelectric power production, which resulted in blackouts in Kabul and other cities. The livestock sector in the Kabul province dominated by cattle (including dairy cows), sheep, goats, donkeys, horses, and poultry. The average farming household owns between 2 to 3 cows, 2 to 4 goats and sheep, donkeys, and 10 to 12 backyard chickens. Part of the required fodder is being produced locally type, but some parts imported from other provinces. Kabul province has a considerably high number of medium and small scale (backyard) poultry and cattle farmers, moreover, livestock products such as eggs, meat, and wool that could feed into the development of dairy and carpet weaving, and other agro- processing sectors (River, 2009).

Due to the lack of the open competition of a free economy, not existing long-term plans for the construction of dams, non-improvement of water management, non-improvement of transportation, and not having advanced techniques about the introduction and implementation of harvesting. The breaking down irrigation system and many more reasons show that the productivity of the agricultural sector in Kabul city not improved more and remained in the same situation (Houben et al., 2009). According to Afghanistan's National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA), drought and mismanagement of groundwater have caused the water table to drop almost all over the country including the capital Kabul city (UNEPA, 2008).

Farmers of Kabul province grew 30 different crops on approximately 54,341 hectares of land (9.26 percent of total area) in 2008. The cultivated area concentrated in the northwestern districts (71 percent located in 7 northern districts) of the province because of the fertile land found within the Panjshir River waters basin. The larger three eastern districts have terrain (hills and mountains) that is more suitable for raising livestock. Kabul's crop production surveyed in 2008 totaled 392,524 metric tons (MT), mostly consisting of 281,871 tons (71.81 percent) fruits, followed by 68,326 tons (17.41 percent) grains, 40,085 tons (10.21 percent) vegetables, and 2,205tons (0.56 percent) industrial crops and animal fodder (AFGHANISTAN, 2008). Kabul province is divided into 14 districts and 15 municipality (Kabul City, Deh Sabz, Mir Bacha Kot, Kala Kan, Qara Bagh, Farza, Istalif, Guldara, Shakar Dara, Paghman, Chahar 41

Asyab, Musayi, Khaki Jabbar, Bagrami, and Surubi) counties that encompass 4,462 km² (square kilometers), which include 2,231,000 hectares used for agricultural purposes, and it has a total of 939 villages. Kabul province is home of 10.5 percent of the total population of Afghanistan with its 2,425,067 inhabitants based on an estimated 2003 census data as a most populous province in the country. Table 3.1 shows some general demographic and other relevant information about the status of the Kabul province and individually districts of this province.

Table 3.1 General Demographic (Population, Sex, and Sex Ratio and Other Important Information) of the Kabul Province' Districts. 2004 District Total Male Female Sex No. of Area ratio Family (ha) Population Percent Kabul City 1,925,548 79.4 979,643 945,905 103.6 620,785 18,270 Deh Sabz 47,348 2.0 24,288 23,060 105.3 1,600 4,170 Mir Bacha Kot 32,461 1.3 16,028 16,433 97.5 830 3,170 Kalakan 18,192 0.8 9,206 8,986 102.4 3,480 1,535 Qara Bagh 50,321 2.1 25,312 25,009 101.2 3,860 4,125 Farza 15,139 0.6 7,793 7,346 106.1 3,210 5,390 Estalef 16,513 0.7 8,367 8,146 102.7 2,305 1,190 Guldara 14,245 0.6 7,314 6,931 105.5 2,234 2,073 Shakar Dara 57,644 2.4 29,056 28,588 101.6 2,017 1,481 Paghman 82,597 3.4 42,013 40,584 103.5 6,635 3,198 Chahar Asyab 26,089 1.1 13,453 12,636 106.5 7,075 5,319 Chahar Dihi 18,351 0.8 9,317 9,034 103.1 3,900 920 Khak-I-Jabar 7,461 0.3 3,811 3,650 104.4 1,239 3,224 Bagrami 68,287 2.8 34,902 33,385 104.5 14,500 7,340 Surubi 44,871 1.9 22,677 22,194 102.2 7,320 3,988 Sours: Central Statistical Office of Afghanistan

Kabul city (district) as the capital of Afghanistan is the most populated city of the country, and it is a major center of trade and for farmers and herders. Paghman district comes second with 3.4 percent of the total population, Bagrami third with 2.8 percent, Shakar Dara fourth with 2.4, Qara Bagh fifth with 2.1 percent, and Deh Sabz sixth with two percent. In the rest of the provinces, the proportions vary between 1.9 percent in Surubi, and 0.3 percent in Khaki Jabbar. Kabul is the only province in the country where the majority of the population lives in urban areas. However, almost the totality of such urban population lives in the district of Kabul.

3.3 The Study Area

Drought is the regressive and recurrent natural hazard which is threatening livelihoods, farming, and the farmers in all provinces in Afghanistan as well as in Kabul province. In order to achieve the objectives of this study and data collection, Paghman, and Deh Sabz districts which are located in Kabul province and the capital of Afghanistan are selected generally as the study area, and from Paghman district Mullah Khel Kala village, and from Deh Sabz district Tara Khel village are selected as the study area. These area have maximum times of occurrence of drought in the last 10 years, and in the areas the livelihood of farmers and farming practices highly influenced on drought. Therefore, according to above criteria these area will be suitable for selection, and for making facilitates in purpose of this study they have to be follow.

Stud y Area

Figure 3.4 Geographical Distribution of Kabul Province and Study Area

Source: Obtained from GIS (Geographical Information System), 2018

The purpose of selecting these two districts in Kabul province for examining the impact of drought on agriculture and incomes of farmers, and also the determination of drought strategies in this area is that these area mostly are facing to the frequent and prolonged drought, climate change (extreme high temperature during the dry season), shortages of water and drying groundwater resources, and lack of precipitation. Another reason for the selection of these two districts is that these areas are accessible because of research to collect the data for fulfilling the research objectives. Figure 3.1 illustrates the location of Kabul 43

province which is the capital of Afghanistan, and the two districts for study areas in this province which are Paghman district, and Deh Sabz district.

3.3.1 Brief History and Geophysical Settings of the Study Area

Paghman district which selected as one district of the study area located in the western part of Kabul province. It covers an area of 600 km2 (26,868 jeribs). It is far about 59 km from the center of Kabul province. Paghman is the only district that has any urbanites counts a small 3,207 population representing less than 1.7 percent of the total urban population in Kabul province, and it has 117 villages (UNFPA, 2004). Paghman is the one district that specializes in most of the agricultural activities, in particular, the production of crops, vegetables, fruit, and animal products. Out of the 117 villages are producing wheat, maize, beans, vetch, peas, vegetables, and fruit such as almonds, walnuts, mulberry, and pomegranates (Table 3.2). Paghman district located in the western part and the hills near Kabul city capital of Afghanistan. It is the home of the most famous with high-quality potable water resource in the Kabul province that is supplying the water needs of Kabul's city through a pipe system. The Paghman-Upper Kabul, Central Kabul, Deh Sabz, and Logar sub-basins make up the southern part of the Kabul Basin. There are several villages in the Paghman district such as Adam Khel Kala, Hatam Kala, Seeno Kala, Mullah Khel Kala, Muhabbat Khan Kala, Lachi Khel Kala, and Pajak Tappa (Mack, Chornack, & Taher, 2013).

Figure 3.5 Map of Paghman District in Kabul Province of Afghanistan Source: AIMS (Automated Information Mapping System)

In term of Paghman topographic characteristics, the elevation of this district is about 2,307 m (7,569 ft), and it shares a boundary with the Shakar Dara district and Parwan province to the north, Kabul city to the east, Chahar Asyab district to the south, and Wardak province to the west with the latitude of 34° 40' North and the longitude of 69° 0' East (Figure 3.2). Paghman district is generally described as an upland in the east towards a hilly terrain to the south, and pass about 70 km (43 mi) west of Kabul. Paghman district which located at the foot of the Hindu Kush Mountain range is greener than the other districts of Kabul province.

Kabul River which is the only large river in the Kabul province rises at the Paghman Mountain, has fed by springs and snow-melt runoffs from Paghman's mountain, and also creates the canal system which extends from Paghman Mountain to the all Paghman district area.

Deh Sabz district which selected as a second district of the study area located in the northern part of Kabul province and the northeast of capital city of Afghanistan (Kabul district) with the latitude of 34° 39' 18'' N and longitude of 9° 14' 29'' E. It is far about 48 minutes in driving from the center of Kabul province. There estimated that over 100,000 people are living in the 49 villages of this district which is sixth in two percent of the total population. What most of its people live in villages and agriculture is the most important source of the people income? Many thousands of Kuchi settlers have joined the local villagers in the last decade. People in the Deh Sabz district are producing the grains such as wheat, maize, and mung beans; vegetables such as potato, onion, tomato, and pepper; fruit such as grape, almond, apricot, and apple; fodder and industrial crops such as alfalfa and clover. All farmers growing have shown in Table 3.4. Deh Sabz district situated in the eastern part of Kabul city capital of Afghanistan. The agricultural irrigated productivity and the fallow lands of Deh Sabz’ district fed by the irrigation canal system of Panjshir River. The Deh Sabz village is Tara Khel which situated in the south-western part of the district, and other districts are Entiat, Daneshmand, Paymoanar, Deh-Yahiya, Bachtyaran, and Khwaja Chest. All of Kabul province districts especially these study area are irrigated area, and there is no any rain-fed (non-irrigated) area. The people use both surface water and groundwater for their needs.

Figure 3.6 Map of Deh Sabz District in Kabul Province of Afghanistan District Atlas Source: Afghanistan Kabul Province District Atlas, April 2014

According to the topographic characteristics, Deh Sabz covers an area of 206.64 km2 (103,320 jeribs) and its elevation is about 1742 meters (5,715 feet), and with plateau and smooth hillsides (it has not had forest land). Deh Sabz borders with Shakardara and Mir Bacha Kot districts to the west, Kalkan and Qarabagh districts to the northwest, Parvan

Province to the north and east, Surobi district to the southeast and Bagram and Kabul districts to the south. The headquarters of Deh Sabz is the village of Tarakhel which situated in the south-western part of the district. Deh Sabz is a district that extends beyond the line of hills north of Kabul airport and right up to the Kuh-e Safi Mountains to the east and Bagram to the north. The Kabul River flows through the district in its southern end, and the main highway (Kabul-Jalalabad) passes along it. With the high rate of rural-urban migration and the destruction left from 30 years of war, Deh Sabz requires a great deal of investment to rebuild and expand the underlying infrastructure. (Towns, 2018).

3.3.1.1 Land Use Pattern

About 14,434 hectare land of Paghman district and 3,680 hectare land of Deh Sabz district used for agricultural purposes. The agricultural lands from two districts are both rain-fed and irrigated land. The remaining of the total district area shared by fruit orchards land, farrows and vegetable land, cereal crops, forage cropland, forest land, and pasture area (Table 3.2). Table 3.2 summarize the distribution of the district's land area in two districts of the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz). The table shows that there is no forest area in Deh Sabz district, and in the Paghman district mountain land is not used for agricultural purposes. Most of the lands are irrigated land in two districts. That means in the study area, crops and their cultivation depends on rain. When drought happens, and precipitation has reduced, then the crops will also be reduced. Table: 3.2 shows the arable land survey cultivated, forest and pasture land in a hectare in 2008. Also, there are annual agricultural incomes which have surveyed in USD $ by hectares of land at the two districts. The details of the annual income illustrated in table 3.3, and it shows that the income of the same hectares of land at the Deh Sabz district is mostly 2% more than Paghman district. Therefore, Paghman district which is more populated and more affected area of drought, it can produce less agricultural annual income. Paghman district is the most populated and the largest area regarding land area than the Deh Sabz district.

Table 3.2 Distribution of land area in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. Land Use Pattern Paghman District Deh Sabz District Area (hectare) Area (hectare) Rain fed Land 2,000 899 Irrigated Land 12,434 2,781 Fruit orchards Land 1,934 507 Farrows and vegetable Land 2,000 170 Cereal Crops 5,000 2,104 Forage Crop Land 300 20 Forest Land 400 0 Pasture Land 2,300 4,800 Bare Land 500 4,230 Mountain 0 5,153 Total 17,634 17,863

Table 3.3 Annual agricultural tons incomes in USD $ by hectare of land in 2008 District Tons Hectares Value USD $ Total tons (%) Paghman 22,455 3,924 15,721,552 5.72% Deh Sabz 29,155 3,642 21,985,135 7.43% Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) of Afghanistan

3.3.1.2 Agriculture and livestock

The total agriculture area is 22,725 hectare which includes 47.8 % of total district area (47,532 hectares). There are many different crops which are being cultivated by the farmers, but recent droughts have affected some crops production in recent years. The target area of this study has both upland and open agricultural lands which are irrigated by rain and by a different kind of irrigation method. The Paghman and Deh Sabz are irritable, and the water source for agriculture are surface and groundwater such as the canal, karez, river, streams, springs, etcetera. However, in some parts of these districts, rain-fed agriculture is also practicing.

Table 3.4 Farmers' products in kg in the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz districts) District Grains Rice Wheat Barely Maize Mung Bean Other Grain Paghman - 4,427,500 121,800 - - 8,575 Dehsabz - 5,180,000 10,500 166,250 4,375 - Fruits Grape Apple Mulberries Almond Plum Apricot Peach Walnut Paghman 180,000 9,000,000 2,000,000 174,000 150,000 31,050 435,000 220,50 Dehsabz 22,750,000 35,000 - 63,000 - 70,000 - - Vegetables Potato Onion Tomato Pepper Spinach Carrot Paghman 3,360,000 350,000 - - 65,000 225,000 Dehsabz 105,000 87,500 280,000 10,000 - - Fodder and Industrial Crops Alfalfa Clover Cotton Paghman 550,000 95,000 - Dehsabz 120,000 67,500 - Livestock Donkey Total Total Poultry Sheep Cow Goat Camel and Mule Horse Livestock (Chicken, Turkey, and Duck) Paghman 8,349 5,817 3,891 2 1,397 22 37,600 16,400 Dehsabz 8,420 3,188 7,788 0 1,103 50 9,564 21,000 Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) of Afghanistan

Popular crops which are cultivating in large piece of lands are wheat, barely, but other crops such as maize, mung bean and other grain; vegetables such as potato, onion, tomato, carrot, spinach, and pepper; fruit such as grape, almond, plum, peach, mulberries, walnut, apricot, and apple, and watermelon; fodder and industrial crops such as alfalfa and clover; and perennial trees are cultivating and practicing by farmers (Table 3.4). There are 10,606 households; 69.1 % for agriculture occupation and 30.9 % for other occupations such as hired employees, trade and others. There are both agricultural and livestock occupation within their families. Therefore, the first livestock raising is cow, sheep, goat, camel, donkey and mule, horse, and Poultry (Chicken, Turkey, and Duck) farms. Crop cultivation depends on the soil structure, weather, and topography of the area. Major crops and vegetables were 47

grown in two districts of the study area. Among different cropping patterns, mono-cropping is very popular in two districts.

Paghman district is an upland area, and fruits are highly practicing there. Wheat crops cultivation highly depends on the availability of the water that is why these grown in the areas which have more water accessibility. Vegetables and some others agricultural products' also need a greater quantity of water, and they mostly will be found in that places where the water source is accessible. Table 3.4 shows that the total poultry is highest in Deh Sabz district regarding headcount. Chicken production is primary livestock produce in Deh Sabz district and might be due to the appropriate weather and accessibility to the market. Cow beef raised in every district, and goat is also famous in two districts. All of these are distributed in nearly two districts mainly for local consumption rather than commercial purposes.

3.4 Sampling Methods

In order to fulfill the objectives of this study, a field survey had conducted. This study designed by using a simple random sampling technique for determination of farm families. This is a critical research, and the target households were taking from the samples of the villages of Kabul province. Primary research needs a list of people/organizations to interview and survey. The interview and survey of the whole population would be expensive and probably impossible. Therefore, just a group of people has to be select. There are many ways to select the sample of people for interview and survey (probability sampling and non-probability) sampling. Probability sampling methods is a mathematical way to select the group of people for interview and survey because each person in the group from the selected sample has a "known" chance (probability) for selecting. There are three probability sampling methods: random sampling, systematic sampling, and stratified sampling (multi-stage sampling).

In nonprobability sampling, members selected from the population in some nonrandom manner. These include convenience sampling, judgment sampling, quota sampling, and snowball sampling. The advantage of probability sampling is that sampling error can be calculated, and the selection of one individual is independent of the selection of another. Sampling error is the degree of a difference between the sample and population. The inferring results of the population reported with plus or minus the sampling error, and the in nonprobability sampling, the degree of a difference between the sample and population will remain unknown. To avoid these problems, a probability sampling method, and from this sampling only random sampling has chosen in this research. 3.4.1 Sample Size

The number of sample households farming (small farmers) for doing the survey by interviewing were selected in the study area. Based on the information in table 3.1, the total number of households for surveying from two districts (Paghman and Deh Sabz) of Kabul province as a sample size 99 households have chosen in the study area. In this regard, 80 farmer households were sample sized in Paghman and 19 farmer households in Deh Sabz were sample sized by using the following Yamane's formula with 90% of confidence level have calculated: N n = 1 + N(e)2

Where, N = Total number of households in the districts e = Error limit 10 % (0.1) is taken n = Sample size (Total number of sample household)

Table 3.5 Sample Size District Household By Formula Paghman 6635 80 Deh Sabz 1600 19 Total 8235 99

3.5 Data Sources

By considering of the study objectives has tried to present a full picture of drought situation, the impacts of drought on agriculture, farmers behaving, and identifying the farmers' different adaptation strategies against drought which is the main objective of this study. The data into this research has collected from the two main sources: (1) Secondary data sources which have obtained from different places, and (2) Primary data which have collected by the researcher through the study area.

3.5.1 Secondary Data Collection Secondary data is essential for understanding the overall situation and assessing the impacts of the drought on farmers and their livelihoods. Therefore, it has collected during the different stages of the research process. Operational information found in different kind of sources such as, academic journals, published books and reports, unpublished working papers, research and thesis papers, government policy papers and reports, and regional agricultural and climatic documents. Both printed and online materials used, and they gave much information in different aspects. The major recourses of secondary data in this study were Metrological Department in Kabul, National Statistical Office of Afghanistan, Ministry of Energy and Water, Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock, and the villages head.

3.5.2 Primary Data Collection

This study mainly is based on the collected primary data through the standardized and structured questionnaire to the farmers' household level, and face to face interviews. Primary data also have received through the key informants' interview with government officials, community members, and others. The primary data collection has conducted in order to gather the supplementary and common information to identify the problems which are associated with drought, and also to assess the applied strategies by farmers adapt against to the drought. Mostly primary information has provided through the respondent who already were farmers and they have been affected by drought. In the study has used the aforementioned research methods at sequential order were adopted in different phases except observation which has utilized throughout the whole period of research field. By following:

1. Questionnaire survey: A structured and standardized field survey questionnaires at the household level through the face-to-face interviews which taken several days have been conducted in order to interview with farmer households and local interviewers who had background and experiences about the agriculture and some business. It also was modified 49

and revised after the pre-testing that helped to assess analyze of the farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies to drought hazards, and the sensitivity of farmers how they can adapted to it.

Primary information was provided directly by the respondents who are mostly farmers and has been affected by drought. Therefore, the questionnaires were developed from the research coordination schema in Persian to facilitate the survey especially with local household through the establishing translated versions. These questionnaires have conducted at the time of proposal development to understand the general condition of the study area as well as agricultural activities and livelihood.

2. Key informant interviews: A field observation checklist for group discussion is organized in order to explore the overall situation and directly related issues to the topic for a brief exploratory and reconnaissance information, and an overview of the study areas well as the gain of qualitative information. Key informant interview has constructed by using a semi- structured interview with authorities at different levels, and with the persons who are involved in agricultural activities, irrigation system, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), and with the other social persons.

3. Observation: Observation is a research technique which looked for obtain of culture and the characteristics of groups or individuals, and would be difficult to understand compare to the other research methods. It helps that the researchers can get some information about the situation and conditions of the living of the target research groups by an informal fashion. The detailed information from the observation can assist to adjust the prepared interview questions and raise new ones. Therefore, there are observations from the field survey have done which helped to the researcher to understand the overall situation of the real agricultural activities, practices, the household condition as well as the beneficial of qualitative data analysis. Then, they can recognize farmers' attitude and their opinion unto the impacts of drought as well as the plans of the people to the overcome droughts' problems in the future.

3.6 Data Analysis

Scalar data and information regarding agriculture productions, meteorological indicators, and farmers' adaptation strategies to reduce drought impacts collected from both primary and secondary sources. For analysis, the Statistical Package of Social Science (SPSS), as well as Microsoft Excel software, will be used. Both qualitative and quantitative techniques of data analysis were applied in this research to fulfill the desired objectives.

3.6.1 Quantitative Data Analysis

In order to quantitative analysis the descriptive statistics were used for calculating frequency, average and percentages. Statistical diagrams such as, tabulation, bar, and pie charts have drawn for data presentation. These were used to describe household information, economic conditions, and the respondents' information about the drought. Quantitative data has obtained from the survey questionnaires to understand the household demographic situation, crop productions, and yield trend. These data collected in different categories of Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software to analyze the data of the collected information.

Quantitative data has used in order to perform trend analysis for rainfall and temperature data, absolute various and variables values such as, decline of agriculture productions, income from the sources, etc. This research is interact mostly with quantitative information from different variables by descriptive statistics analysis.

3.6.2 Qualitative Data Analysis

The qualitative data analysis has taken based on the information collected from the key informant interview, household questionnaire survey, observation, and secondary data as well as from the conducted the tendency and history of agriculture development of the farmers' experience.

Chapter 4 Results and Discussion

This chapter explained the profile of the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz Districts in Kabul province) and bounded into two parts. First, the socio-economic profile of this study according to the response of the household survey is presented based on the data which was collected from the household survey, key informant survey, and collected secondary data from the official places in the study area. Second, this chapter presents the farmers' understanding, experiences and interpretation of drought risk, it will be examined the drought impacts on agriculture, such as crops production, livestock production, pasture land, agricultural land, irrigation sources, and agricultural income in the study area. Third, the examination of the impacts of drought on farmers' livelihood especially economic impacts of drought in the study area also will be searched, and here also be an assessing and identifying of farmers' current adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of drought from the study area.

4.1 Socioeconomic Profile of Respondents

4.1.1 Age Distribution and Years of Farming

Overall compound age of the respondents in the study area indicates that the average age is 45.0 years, and the respondent's age ranges from 20 years to 70 years. What age composition of household conduces is categorized into five groups, and it has shown in table 4.1. It found out that majority (69.3 %) of the respondents fall in the age group of (41-60) and the study area. However, a significant proportion of the respondents (37.1 %) come under the age group of (31-40).

Table 4.1 Classification of Respondents by Age Age Group Target Area Total Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) 20-30 19 23.8 0 0 19 19.0 31-40 17 21.3 3 15.8 20 20.0 41- 50 26 32.5 7 36.8 33 33.0 51-60 16 20.0 9 47.4 25 25.0 61-70 2 2.5 0 0 2 2.0 Total 80 100 19 100 99 99 Sample Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

It also found out that a small proportion of (2.5%) of people are in the age of (61-70) and 23.8% of them are coming under the age group of (20-30); showing that the growth speed in the districts is slow but elderly population (41-60) is increasing and then after in age group of (61-70) is decreasing. Therefore, after the age of 70 people cannot working on the farms. The data from the household survey which shown in Table 4.2 also illustrates that mostly the respondents are living in their respective villages since from their birth, or from their forefathers' time. Table 4.2 shows that the average time of living of the respondents in the

study area (in the villages) is 45.0 years. Therefore, the statement given by the respondents is verifiable.

Table 4.2 Classification of Respondents by Years of Living in the Study Area Years of Target Area Total Living Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) 10-20 23 28.8 0 0 23 23.0 21-30 21 26.3 1 5.4 22 22.0 31- 40 13 16.2 2 10.5 15 15.0 41-50 17 21.2 5 26.3 22 22.0 51-60 5 6.2 7 36.8 12 12.0 61-70 1 1.3 2 10.5 3 3.0 71-80 0 0 2 10.5 2 2.0 Total 80 100 19 100 99 99 Sample Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

4.1.2 Gender of the Household Head and Household Worker

The data from household surveys revealed that 87.0% of household heads are male and 12% are female. Therefore, the number of male heads is high, and it is a significant difference (Table 4.3). The reason of the highest proportion of male heads in the study area is that the most of the female's household members in the whole provinces cannot have an active participant in most activities because of the non-ability, and traditional situation of the country of Afghanistan. In term of household heads gender, there is a significant difference between the two target area. As the data from table 4.3 shows, the number of male head is higher than the number of male head in Paghman area, while the number of male head is higher than the female head in Paghman area. It means that the household heads in Deh Sabz area are male, while most of the household heads in Paghman area are also male.

Table 4.3 Classification of Respondents (Household Heads) by Gender Gender Target Area Total Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Male 68 85.0 19 100.0 87 87.0 Female 12 15.0 0 0 12 12.0 Total 80 100 19 100 99 99 Sample Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The data from household surveys indicate that 60% of household labor in the study area are one person, 19% of them are two persons, 12% of the household labor are three persons, and 8% of them are four persons (Table 4.4). That means that the most household labor in the study area is one person and they cannot be efficient for family income for livelihood. Therefore, farmers cannot cope with drought event, and also they cannot apply the adaptive

strategies for drought risk reduction because of low income and because of less number of family worker. In term of the number of the household worker when is increased, the livelihood efficiency will also increase, and household can continue their life to drought situation by having coping strategies on it.

Table 4.4 Statistical Information of Number of Household Worker Number of Target Area Total Family Paghman Deh Sabz Worker (in Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Person) (%) (%) (%) One 53 66.3 7 36.8 60 60.0 Two 11 13.7 8 42.1 19 19.0 Three 8 10.0 4 21.1 12 12.0 Four 8 10.0 0 0 8 8.0 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 99 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

4.1.3 Occupation

Because the main occupation of 99 respondents from the household survey of this study was mostly agriculture, the focus groups are chosen from farmers to achieve the objectives of this study. However, the data from socio-economic and household information of respondents reveal that the household members of respondent have some other occupation besides farming.

Table 4.5 Occupational Structure of Sample Respondents' Household Members Occupation Target Area Total Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Farmer 47 58.8 5 26.3 52 52.0 Business/Tra 3 3.7 0 0 3 3.0 de Official 15 18.7 3 15.8 18 18.0 Non- 13 16.3 9 47.4 22 22.0 agricultural worker Non- 2 2.5 2 10.5 4 4.0 employment Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 99 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The occupation and their classification are shown in table 4.5. The data revealed that most of the household members (52%) have an occupation in agricultural sectors. 22% of the household are working as a non-agricultural worker. Very few people (3%) have a business or trade occupation, and also a few people (4%) of the study area household members are non-employment. There are also 18% household member who is working in the offices. Data from table 4.6 and 4.7 which are showing the annual incomes of farmers from the agriculture

and livestock productions found out that the household incomes from livestock productions placed between 10000- 80000, and incomes from crops productions are about 20000-70000 Afghani currency.

Table 4.6 Crops Annual Income in the Study Area Crops Target Area Total Annual Paghman Deh Sabz Income Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Less than 8 10.0 0 0 8 8.1 20000 20000-30000 21 26.3 6 31.5 27 27.3 30001-40000 5 6.3 9 47.4 14 14.1 40001-50000 3 3.7 2 10.5 5 5.0 50001-60000 0 0 1 5.3 1 1.0 60001-70000 0 0 1 5.3 1 1.0 More than 43 53.7 0 0 43 43.5 70000 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Table 4.7 Livestock Annual Income in the Study Area Livestock Target Area Total Annual Paghman Deh Sabz Income Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Less than 9 11.3 1 5.3 10 10.1 10000 10000-20000 15 18.7 0 0 15 15.1 20001-30000 6 7.5 0 0 6 6.1 30001-40000 14 17.5 0 0 14 14.1 40001-50000 14 17.5 0 0 14 14.1 50001-60000 0 0 0 0 0 0 60001-70000 0 0 0 0 0 0 70001-80000 13 16.2 0 0 13 13.2 More than 6 7.6 0 0 6 6.1 80000 No Have 3 3.7 18 94.7 21 21.2 Livestock Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018 According to the number of incomes from crops and livestock, there are no significant differences between in two districts, and also prove that the main occupation of the households in the study area is agriculture. Data from table 4.7 shows that in the Deh Sabz district is not livestock production. Therefore, there is no any occupation of livestock.

4.1.4 Education Level

The data from household survey reveals that the literacy at the household members between the respondents has classified into five education level (Table 4.8 and Fig 4.1). The result of the survey indicates that the majority (44%) of the people of the study area are illiterate. There are 18% of people who have graduated with a bachelor degree. There is also a significant proportion (25%) of people who have secondary education, and 8% of them has a diploma. There are some differences between the two target area in term of education of household members which is not significant and only shows that in Deh Sabz district nobody has a diploma, and also there is no primary household education level.

Table 4.8 Education Background of Households’ Members Education Target Area Total Level Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Illiterate 33 41.2 11 57.9 44 44.0 Primary 4 5.0 0 0 4 4.0 Secondary 17 21.3 8 42.1 25 25.0 Diploma 8 10.0 0 0 8 8.0 Graduate 18 22.5 0 0 18 18.0 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 99 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Education Level (%)

Graduate 18%

Diploma Illiterate 8% 45%

Secondary 25% Primary 4%

Illiterate Primary Secondary Diploma Graduate

Figure 4.1 Education Background of Households’ Members Source: Household Survey, 2018 4.2 Farmers' Understanding, Experiences, and Interpretation of Drought

There is a theoretical discussion on the role of perception and understanding of the drought risk to assess farmers' understanding of drought. Then, it followed by the covering of farmers' understanding and interpretation on drought with an insight into their past drought experiences, level of understanding, awareness about drought, and causes of drought. 56

Because one of the objective of this thesis is to assess the farmers’ perception and their level of understanding and awareness about drought. Therefore, can say that farmers' understanding about drought risk is important, and the droughts' meaning in term of farmers' perception from the physical environment, level and type of engagement to agricultural activities, the extending of the effects in the financial well-being is different. Thus, by the better understanding of the drought phenomenon, the impacts of drought can be reduced or can be averted. Therefore, ultimately farmers' understanding about drought influences to the economic and environmental sustainability of farmers' livelihood activities.

4.2.1 Farmer's Understanding of Drought

According to the literature review, and the types of drought there are different factors which are causing the drought. To assess the farmers' understanding about causes of drought in their area, there are some questions and the options of them, such as "No pasture for grazing", "dry soil", "dusty", "and lack or late of rainfall", “lack of irrigation and water supply" and etcetera. That will happen because of the drought and will be the meaning of drought for farmers, and they have been questioned to identify their percept of the drought.

Table 4.9 Understanding of Drought by Farmers in the Study Area Understanding Target Area Total from Drought Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Lack or Late 53 66.3 17 89.4 70 77.8 of Rainfall Lack of 23 28.8 1 5.3 24 17.0 Irrigation and Water Supply No Pasture for 3 3.8 0 0 3 1.9 Grazing Dry Soil 0 0 1 5.3 1 2.6 Dusty 1 1.3 0 0 1 0.7 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The data from the household survey (Table 4.9) has revealed that most of the farmers (77.8%) defined "lack or late of rainfall" as the main causes of drought in their area. 17% of the farmers have defined that drought for them means the "lack of irrigation and water supply" when they irrigate their farms. 2.6% defines the "dry soil" as the cause of drought. 1.9% of the farmers have defined the "no pasture for grazing" as the main causes of drought in the study area. There were a few respondents (0.7%) who has defined that "dusty" is the causes of drought in their area. According to the chi-square test, there were no significant differences between the two target areas concerning the causes of drought.

4.2.2 Farmers' Experience of Drought

Having experience about the disaster plays a vital role in farmers' livelihood which from the based on the experiences, by themselves they can adapt current or the future hazards, cope with them, and mitigate them. Thus, people with living for a long time in an area will get more experience. For this reason, the data from a household survey in table 4.10 illustrates

that most of the people (about 60 persons 60 or 59.7% from the total) who are living in this study area have stayed in here about 20-50 years. Therefore, the trust of the survey from the study area become more because people from these districts have much, and enough experience.

Because of arranging plantation date and cultivating types of crops, understanding the drought time in a year is very important for farmers. By this management they can organize their possibilities that not seriously affected by drought in the area. Therefore, the experiences of the drought would be discussed in the study area with the recent drought years, severity of the drought, and months or duration of the drought.

Table 4.10 Years of Farmers Living in the Study Area Years of Target Area Total Living Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) 10-20 23 28.8 0 0 23 23.2 21-30 21 26.3 1 5.3 22 22.3 31-40 13 16.3 2 10.5 15 15.1 41-50 17 21.3 5 26.4 22 22.3 51-60 5 6.3 7 36.8 12 12.1 61-70 1 1.3 2 10.5 3 3.0 71-80 0 0 2 10.5 2 2.0 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

To found out the drought months in the study area, it was merely asked from the farmers to define the usual months of the drought in their area based on their experiences from the previous droughts. The respondents have identified a drought time range within June- October. The drought months divided into four categories which are July; September, October; June, July; and June, July, August. From the total respondents, most of them (68.2%) identified September, October as the severe drought months within a year. 75.0% identified the months of December-February as the drought months in their area, and a proportion of 80.0% who have defined June-July as the drought months (Table 4.11).

Table 4.11 Experiences of Drought Months by Farmers in the Study Area Drought Target Area Total Duration Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) September, 30 36.5 19 100 49 68.2 October June, July 12 16.0 0 0 12 8.1 June, July, 25 31.5 0 0 25 15.7 August July 3 4.0 0 0 3 2.0 No drought 10 12.0 0 0 10 6.0 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

There is a significant difference regarding drought months' experience between two districts. The data from the household survey revealed that 36.5% of the farmers who forms 63.5% of the total respondents and have drought experience in September and October, while 100.0% of the farmers in Deh Sabz district who has drought experience in these time (September and October). The main reason for this significant difference belongs to the geographical location of the districts. Because the Deh Sabz area is smooth and its required water comes from the river or the streams, and the dry months for this area are September and October.

Paghman is a mountainous area, and its required water comes from the mountain, and that months are not the dry months for it. The farmers who access to more water may face the water shortage later than those who are related to the less amount of water for their farming. The drought can happen in their area, but farmers not feel it. Therefore, they still have water in the reservoirs in the area. According to the information from the key informant and interview, the duration and severity of drought have increased through the years with compare to the previous droughts in the study area.

4.2.3 Situation and Interpretation of Drought

The current drought is occurring in the middle of the year (Jun, July, August, September, and October) and continues until now (2018). There is water shortage crisis stems from the low level of water in the reservoirs such as wells, springs, etcetera. In the dry season. In the last 30 years, the worst drought will be for Afghanistan in 2017. The water level from all resources became low in comparison to the previous years. The water is rationed during June to October in the study area, and many sections have been affected from drought crisis. Farmers in the Kabul province as a nation and as a leading producer of the food increasingly are becoming desperate from the decreasing of water for irrigating their dried fields, and they more than a decade suffers from the worst drought (Survey and interview, 2018).

Table 4.12 Drought Years and Its Frequency in the Study Area (Paghman) Target Area (Paghman) Total Intensity Level of Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Drought Years the Drought (%) (%) 2009 No drought 0 0 0 0 2010 No drought 0 0 0 0 2011 High 2 2.5 2 2.0 2012 No drought 0 0 0 0 2013 No drought 0 0 0 0 2014 No drought 0 0 0 0 2015 No drought 0 0 19 19.1 2016 Moderate and 11 13.0 30 30.3 High 2017 Low and 51 63.8 70 70.2 High 2018 High and Very 6 7.2 6 5.0 High All of Years High and Very 3 3.2 3 3.8 high No Drought No drought 9 10.3 9 11.6 Total Sample 80 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018 59

Data from a household survey in tables 4.12 and 4.13 revealed that from 2011-2018 absolutely all of the households were affected by drought in both Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. It shows that 2015, 2016, and 2017 had a higher droughts' problem than in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. In 2011, 2.5% of respondents were affected by drought, while 60.6% of them were affected in the year 2016 and 90% were affected in 2017. As data from tables 4.12 and 4.13 show only difference between in two districts regarding drought years is that Paghman district was affected by drought during 2011 while in Deh Sabz district there was no drought in that year.

Data from households’ survey with the situation of current drought and evaluating of its intensity from the tables 4.12 and 4.13 has revealed that all respondents are suffering from drought. Most of the respondents (66%) rated that the intensity of the current 2017 drought is very high to compare to the previous droughts. Only 34% of the respondents rated that the drought intensity with "high level" in 2017 compares to the previous droughts. Also, the information from the critical informant as well as the household survey revealed that drought intensity has increased in comparison to the previous droughts.

Table 4.13 Drought Years and Its Frequency in the Study Area (Deh Sabz) Target Area (Deh Sabz) Total Intensity Level of Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Drought Years the Drought (%) (%) 2009 No drought 0 0 0 0 2010 No drought 0 0 0 0 2011 No drought 0 0 2 2.0 2012 No drought 0 0 0 0 2013 No drought 0 0 0 0 2014 No drought 0 0 0 0 2015 High 19 100 19 19.1 2016 High 19 100 30 30.3 2017 High 19 100 70 70.2 2018 No drought 0 0 6 5.0 All of Years No drought 0 0 3 3.8 No Drought No drought 0 0 9 11.6 Total Sample 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Furthermore, as the data from a household survey in tables 4.12 and 4.13 show, there were not many significant differences between the drought intensity among Paghman district and Deh Sabz. The secondary data from this section which was about drought situation also confirm that the result of a household survey about drought intensity in the study area. Therefore, Fig 4.2 which shows the comparison of monthly precipitation in 2017 with average precipitation in Kabul region from 2007 to 2017. It illustrates that during the months of Jun to September the total precipitation amount is zero in Paghman in 2017, and it is less than the amount of annual average precipitation in Kabul (2007-2017). Also graph shows that the annual average precipitation in Paghman is less than the annual average precipitation in Kabul. Therefore, according to the drought definition can say drought has taken place in Paghman in 2017.

Total Precipitation in (mm) 350

300

250

200

150

100 PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION (MM) 50

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual MONTHS Paghman in 2017 Average in Kabul (2007-2017)

Figure 4.2 Total Precipitation in (mm) Monthly in Paghman in 2017, and Average in Kabul Region (2007-2017) Source: Data Modified from the Ministry of Power and Water Resources of Afghanistan, 2018 Comparison of Annual Average Precipitation Between 2008 and 2017, and Year 2017 (Jan-Dec) in Paghman 324

322

320

318

316

Precipitation (mm) Precipitation 314 Annual Average (2008-2017) Annual Average in 2017 (Jan-Dec)

Figure 4.3 Comparison of Annual Average Precipitation between 2008 and 2017, and Year 2017 (Jan-Dec) in Paghman Source: Data Modified from the Ministry of Power and Water Resources of Afghanistan, For2018 more examination, there is another comparison of annual average precipitation between

2008 and 2017, and year 2017 (Jan-Dec) in Paghman which is shown in figure 4.3. The graph shows that the annual average of precipitation in 2017 is less than the annual average precipitation between 2008 and 2017. Therefore, according to the concept of meteorological drought, there is drought occurrence in 2017 in Paghman district.

4.3 Impacts of Drought

Data from the household survey showed that there are many drought problems which farmers had experienced in the study area (Table 4.14). As the data from the household survey is showing, most farmers (76%) have droughts' problem experience with drying water

resources, about 14% of the farmers have experience which drought has to make their surrounding area dry, 7% of them have experienced the drought with crops failure, and only 1% of the farmers have experienced the drought with increasing food price. Therefore, in the light of farmers' experience, the big problems of the drought in the study area are that water resources become drier to compare the previous years. There are data from the household survey that shows the impacts of drought on agricultural products, such as crop production, livestock production, pasture, and agricultural lands, irrigation sources, etcetera.

Table 4.14 Experience of Drought Problems in the Study Area Problems of Target Area Total Drought Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Drying Water 62 77.5 14 73.7 76 76.8 Resources Makes 10 12.5 3 15.7 13 13.1 Surrounding Drier Famine 2 2.5 0 0 2 2.0 Crop Failure 6 7.5 1 5.3 7 7.1 Increase Food 0 0 1 5.3 1 1.0 Price Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

4.3.1 Impacts of Drought on Crop Production

The drought impacts firstly lie on agricultural productions especially on crops yield and the crop production will be decreased because of the low water or lack of water accessibility. When the drought is happening, the impacts will occur on the field of water capacity and plants will be faced with a dry soil environ. Then, the plants will not be able to absorb the nutrient elements from the soil and faced with some other physiological (inside system) problems. This dry situation immediately impacts on the crop yield. There is a direct relation between the water stress duration and yield rate of a crop and the growth stage that plant faces water stress. According to the water stress duration, the crop yield will decrease, and if this water stresses continuous, it will come to the end point of water, and in that time the plant will be died due to water stress.

Concerning drought affection, the agricultural production rate for each crop's yield has decreased in the study area. This production decrease impacted on farmers' livelihood and economic situation in different ways. According to the survey and the key informant interview with the respondents, and based on their respond (Fig 4.4 and 4.5) there are many loss of crop production such as wheat, barley, maize, potato, onion, etc., fruits and vegetables due to drought in the two districts.

The pictures show the impact of drought concerning crops in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. Therefore, potato and wheat crop production lost 19%, onion and barley lost about 17%, maize lost 12%, 10% fruit, and 7% vegetables lost in Paghman area. Also, onion 44%, potato 34%, and fruit 22% lost in the Deh Sabz area. The household survey found out that drought has been affected on the agricultural land in the study area and reduced it, and also

the agricultural lands' soil conditions have changed by this affection. It said that by mean during the drought situation in the Paghman area agricultural lands between 0-13 jerib are not cultivated, and it is showing that every family has lost about 1.3 jerib lands by cause of drought, and water shortages. Therefore, those lands have remained without cultivating. Similarly, between 0-2 jerib agricultural lands lost in the Deh Sabz area, and they not cultivated during the drought period. That means that every family in the Deh Sabz district cannot use 0.7% of their lands for cultivating.

Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in Paghman Area, and Comparing to Before Drought Condition 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Potato Onion Wheat Barley Maize Fruit Vegetables

Before drought After drought

Figure 4.4 Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in Paghman District Comparing to before Drought Condition Source: Household Survey, 2018

Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in Deh Sabz Area, and Comparing to Before Drought Condition 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Potato Onion Fruit Before drought After drought

Figure 4.5 Percentage of Crops Production Loss Due to Drought in Deh Sabz District Comparing to before Drought Condition Source: Household Survey, 2018

4.3.2 Impacts of Drought on Livestock Production

According to the data from the household survey and the key informant interview with the shepherd and farmers revealed that the drought had affected the livestock productions in the study area. The significant difference between the two areas is in the number of livestock. Most of the family in the Deh Sabz district does not have livestock compared to the Paghman district. People who are living in Paghman area have some livestock such as sheep, goat, cow, chicken, and donkey. The most livestock production is chicken, sheep, and cow (more than 80%), and the amount of goat and donkey is less (less than 20%). Also, the survey shows that there was a decreasing number of livestock after the drought in Paghman district. The farmers cannot cultivate and store forage and grains as much as enough to feed their animals in drought time.

The data from a household survey in the study area is showing that the number of people who are having satisfied from getting livestock during the drought year is less, and it is about (1%) one percent. The number of people in the study area whose has very less percentage from self-sufficiency of the getting of livestock during in drought period is more, and it is about 46.5% and shows that the influence of drought on livestock productions is occurring. Less sufficiency is 22.2%, medium sufficiency is 27.3%, and high sufficiency is 3.0% (Table 4.15). According to the responding of the people about the most problem of drought in livestock production is that the most problem is water and pasture shortage during the drought period compare to the average years in the study area. About the impacts of drought on livestock, people in the Paghman area replied that livestock before the drought situation was good, but during the drought, most of the livestock were died and limited.

Table 4.15 Sufficiency of Getting Livestock in a Drought Year in the Study Area Sufficiency Target Area Total of Getting Paghman Deh Sabz Livestock in Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Drought (%) (%) (%) Year Less 14 17.4 8 42.1 22 22.2 Very less 35 43.8 11 57.9 46 46.5 Medium 27 33.7 0 0 27 27.3 High 3 3.8 0 0 3 3.0 Very high 1 1.3 0 0 1 1.0 Total Sample 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Pasture land is also would be affected by drought, but the productions of natural pastures have been less vulnerable than crop productions. The low rainfall caused poor growth of pasture, and it may be lead to decline the fodder supply of crop residues. The less level of fodder around the villages where the livestock's are dependent on pasture could be lead to low weight and increasing of deaths among of stocks. According to the information of the people from the interview, there were drought impacts on pasture land in the study area. They responded that the pasture land lost due to drought.

4.3.3 Impacts of Drought on Irrigation Sources

The study area is an agricultural and mostly irrigated area, therefore, its agricultural productions largely depend on natural water resources, such as surface water (rain, river, streams, canal, and karez) resources, and groundwater (springs and wells) resources. The details of the traditional farming and irrigation practices, and the difference between the karez, streams, and wells are explained in the parts of literature review in chapter two. The importance of the Kabul River from the economic and environmental point of view for the development, and supply of water is extremely important. Unfortunately, surface water and groundwater resources has been severely impacted by the over-utilization, excessive population growth, climate change, drought periods, melting of permanent snow, changing the type of rainfall, reducing rainfall, and even dry land in both quantitative and qualitative terms, and has led to the lower water levels.

Also the key informant interview with the farmers revealed that the collective management of surface irrigation is changed comparing to the previous situation. That means in the past, the farmers could be receive their required farming water through the regional organization which was built by the people, and by someone who called "Mirab". Now, they can dig the wells in their farm lands and irrigate into an individual or personal form, but in some places it was still continue as the previous situation. The data from the household survey which is showing in table 4.16 also prove that most irrigation source of the household in the Paghman district are karez which is showing about 52.5% of the people from the study area are using that source of water.

Table 4.16 Irrigation Source in the Study Area Irrigation Target Area Total Source Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Rain 3 3.7 0 0 3 3.0 Karez 51 63.8 1 5.3 52 52.5 Well 13 16.3 3 15.8 16 16.2 River 3 3.7 0 0 3 3.0 Streams 6 7.5 9 47.3 15 15.2 Springs 3 3.7 0 0 3 3.0 Canal 1 1.3 0 0 1 1.0 Well and 0 0 6 31.6 6 6.1 Streams Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Wells have the second rank which is about 16.2%. Therefore, it can say that groundwater resources are the main irrigation source for the study area. Streams have the third rank between these sources. Wells and streams together are the other irrigation source in there with 6.1 percentage. Also, river and rain with 3% of irrigation source are the next, and canal with 1% of the irrigation source is the last of them. Thus, the result shows that there is less usage of surface water resources than the groundwater resources in the study area, and the groundwater resources are the primary source of irrigation which is all agricultural productions are related to it. If drought and water shortages occur, the amount of water in

the reservoirs become less, and the peoples' requirements about the irrigation cannot, and they will be unsatisfied.

The data from the household survey (Table 4.17) shows that most of the household (83.8%) are not satisfied with the water supply in the study area. Only a few of them are satisfied with the water supply. That means, there are drought impacts which have been happened and could create many problems for the people who are living in the affected area. All irrigation system in the study area faced with some difficulties, and according of these affliction the levels of groundwater have dropped down, some of the karezes be dried, and the surface of water level also has decreased. Thus, one of the evidence issue has illustrated in Fig 4.6.

Table 4.17 Satisfaction from the Water Supply in the Study Area Satisfaction Target Area Total from Water Paghman Deh Sabz Supply Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Yes 16 20.0 0 0 16 16.2 No 64 80.0 19 100.0 83 83.8 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Groundwater Level Difference Between 2007 and 2017 in Paghman Area 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Water Level Wells of Level Water 35 well 1 well 2 well 3 well 4 well 5 well 6 well 7 Investigated Weels

2007 2017

Figure 4.6 Groundwater Level Difference between 2007 and 2017 in Paghman Area Source: Data Modified from the Ministry of Power and Water Resources of Afghanistan, 2018

In the graph (4.6), the observed changes in groundwater level in the Paghman aquifer wells are estimated from 2007 to 2017 which is calculated as an average of 8 m decreasing at groundwater level in this area. The most respondents and the key informant interview, such as farmers and agricultural officers of the villages had complained from the decreasing of irrigation sources, and lack of rainfall due to impacts of climate change and drought. On the other hand, they also had complained that drought has caused to decrease the water level in all of irrigation canals and wells in the study area.

The significant changes are due to different reasons: the main reason being the enormous increase in the population in the low area, transfer of underground waters, climate change including the recent droughts, the type of area classes as well as the distance from the main source of groundwater. Seasonal variations in rainfall, the occasional drought, and drilling spontaneous wells affect the "height" of the underground water levels. Withdrawing the water from a well causes the water levels around the well to lower. If other wells be drilled near a well, the water level in mentioned' well will be lowered and its water will recede. When water levels drop below the levels of the pump intakes they will "go dry." Inadequate water supplies and lack of water frequently had been the famers’ main problem. Some irrigation structures have been damaged and maintenance has been neglected. Destruction of natural forest has reduced the infiltration of rainfall, and leading to flash flooding, and has disrupted the irrigation water intakes, and other irrigations' structures.

4.3.4 Socio-economic Impacts of Drought The first impact of the drought is staying on the agricultural sector that can directly affect the economic situation of the farmers. The economic impacts of drought are the decreasing of farming income which can influence the market prices and other economic activities of the farmers' households.

Table 4.18 Livelihood Threatened in Study Area Livelihood Target Area Total Threatened Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Decreasing 27 33.8 9 47.4 36 36.4 Household Income Rising the 15 18.8 1 5.3 16 16.2 Food Prices Rely on Non- 4 5.0 5 26.3 9 9.0 farm Income Low Income 34 42.4 4 21.0 38 38.4 and Rising Costs Limitation of 0 0 0 0 0 0 the Household Consumption Food Scarcity 0 0 0 0 0 0 and Malnutrition Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The impacts of drought on economic livelihood of farmers is decreasing income, rising costs, Limitation of households consumption, relying farmers upon non-farm income, and cause poverty. According to the result of data from a household survey in table 4.18, 38.4% of respondents stated that their income decreased and costs raised due to drought impacts on their farm productions in the study area. 36.4% of respondents faced only to low income. 16.2% of respondents faced only to rising costs in the markets. 9.0% of them has faced dependency to non-farm income due to drought impacts. There is no response to the

limitation of the household food menu and push into poverty. That means, the people from the study area did not feel any of the drought impacts on this two options. The finding from 91% respondents of the study area is that low income and the rise in costs caused by droughts' impacts in the recent years 2017 and 2018 (Table 4.18).

4.3.4.1 Impacts of Drought on Agricultural Income

Firstly, drought impacts on agricultural productions, such as crops, livestock's, etcetera. Then it can directly effect on farmers' income, and reduce their income. Even the highly severe and prolonged droughts can destroy all production in a region. All of the respondents in the study area replied that drought had affected on their annual agriculture income. According to the household survey (Table 4.19), there found out that the farmers' income has reduced in a range of 10%-60% in the study area. Most of the households (33.3%) due to drought impacts on their farming productions had a 21%-30% decreasing income. The other 19.2% of respondents had stated that their income had decreased in a range of 31%- 40% when they compared their income before the drought. 17.2% of respondents have stated that their income had decreased very highly in a range of 51%-60%. 14.1% of respondents have reported that their income had decreased in a range of 10%-20%. 8.1% of the respondents' income had decreased within a range of 41%-50% due to the drought impacts which is showing a significant amount, and another 8.1% of respondents had replied that there is no impact of drought.

Table 4.19 Decreasing Farming Income by Impacts of Drought in Study Area Decreasing Target Area Total Income Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) 10-20% 14 17.4 0 0 14 14.1 21-30% 19 23.7 14 73.6 33 33.3 31-40% 16 20.0 3 15.8 19 19.2 41-50% 7 8.8 1 5.3 8 8.1 51-60% 17 21.3 0 0 17 17.2 No impact of 7 8.8 1 5.3 8 8.1 drought Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Table 4.20 Sufficiency from Agricultural Income in Study Area Sufficiency Target Area Total from Paghman Deh Sabz Agricultural Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Income (%) (%) (%) Yes 7 8.7 0 0 7 7.1 No 73 91.3 19 100.0 92 92.9 Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The result of data from the household survey and critical informant survey revealed that the impacts of drought on farmers' income in Paghman district are more than the Deh Sabz districts' farmers' income. The decreasing of agricultural income in Deh Sabz district have seen in a range of 21-30% because agricultural income in this area is depended on fruits especially grapes, and the Paghman district agricultural income which seen in a range of 21- 30% depended on the different agricultural productions, such as crops, fruits, livestock, vegetables, etcetera. That means fruits are more vulnerable against of drought impacts than crops. Therefore, farmers in the study area have been reduced the agricultural investment because of the drought constraints, and lack of water.

4.3.4.2 Impacts of Drought on Household Assets

Due to drought and its impacts, most of the households in the study area have sold their assets, such as lands, instruments of the house, jewelry, and etcetera (Table 4.21). According to the household survey, 22.2% of respondents in the study area had sold their assets for paying their loan, for children's' education, for health care, and for affording their household consumption. From this 22.2%, some of them (4%) have sold out some parts of their land, 4% of them have sold out home instruments and jewelry, and other 14.2% of them have sold out their livestock (Table 4.21). The significant result of the survey from the study area is that the 77.8% of the respondents of the household have replied they were not sold their assets during the drought period. That means, in these two districts not more impact of drought on farmer's assets.

Table 4.21 Drought Impacts on farmers Assets in Study Area Drought Target Area Total Impacts on Paghman Deh Sabz Farmers Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Assets (%) (%) (%) No Sale 60 75.0 17 89.5 77 77.8 Land Sale 2 2.5 2 10.5 4 4.0 Livestock Sale 14 17.5 0 0 14 14.2 Home 4 5.0 0 0 4 4.0 Instruments and Jewelry Sale Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Also, data from table 4.22 shows that many people in the study area are engaged in the agriculture sector. Therefore, the drought has affected the farming activities and labor of them. Because of the cultivation season, labor demand in the agriculture sector, such as mainstream crops including wheat, barley, and maize, and seasonal jobs including planting seasonal fruits, such as grapes apple in the study area is too high around the March–Jun. According to the household key informant survey, the recent drought has made significant constraints for agricultural labor, because there is no farming in the dry season. The data from the household survey revealed that many laborers prefer to work in non-farm labor because the agricultural labor wage is meager in comparison to another sector, and young generation is not interested in the farming activity. However, data from table 4.22 shows that

most of the household (49.5%) in the study area still have agricultural activities. 38.4% of them are busy non-agriculture labor. Only 12.1% of them are as busy as workers.

Table 4.22 Household Labor in Study Area Household Target Area Total Labor Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Peasant 47 58.7 2 10.5 49 49.5 Shopkeeper 6 7.5 6 31.6 12 12.1 Official 16 20.0 3 15.8 19 19.2 Worker 2 2.5 8 42.1 10 10.1 Non- 2 2.5 0 0 2 2.0 employment Non- 7 8.8 0 0 7 7.1 agriculture Total Sample 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

4.4 Farmers' Current Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Impacts of Drought in Study Area

In order to identify the farmers' adaptation strategies, the results based on farmers' household survey, key informant survey, and live observation from the study area. The concept of adaptation to drought is the reducing impacts of drought in the study area. In this regard, there is a discussion about the on-farm strategies and off-farm strategies which are currently practicing via the farmers.

The farmers in the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz districts) have been used adaptation strategies in order to reduce the negative impacts of drought on their agriculture. These strategies based on their experience and perception of drought. The farmers' adaptation strategies to drought in the study area categorized into two category on-farm strategies and off-farm strategies. Each of them consists of some different methods via the farmer's available resources in the study area. According to the results of the data and critical informant survey (respondents), some of the households were able to adopt drought by using at least one of the adaptive strategies for reducing the impacts of drought in the study area, but most of them weren't able to adopt drought, and did not have the ability to cope with adverse impacts of drought (Table 4.23).

As the table 4.23 shows most of the households cannot adapt drought event and less than 50% of them can adapt the drought event. One of the reason of the lack farmer's adaptive ability is the less educated farmers which they cannot know the adaptation practices, and don't know how should build them. Another reason is that some of households don't have enough money which they can invest against the drought to reduce its impacts because adaptation practices to disaster events need long term of scheduling. On the other hand, they cannot get loan money from the any organizations or banks because they cannot payed it then again. In return, a number of households who are capable of coping, have all these possibilities, and can reduce the negative effects of drought.

Table 4.23 Farmer's Adaptive Ability to Reduce the Negative Impacts of Drought in the Study Area Ability to Target Area Total Adapt with Paghman Deh Sabz Drought Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Unable to 53 66.3 14 73.7 67 67.7 Adapt with Drought Able to Adapt 27 33.7 5 26.3 32 32.3 with Drought Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

All farmers' adaptation strategies (on-farm strategies and off-farm strategies) against drought usually used by farmers who presented in tables 4.24 and 4.28. On-farm strategies referred to all those adaptation strategies that are applied by farmers and dealing with farming practices and their impacts are directly on the agricultural activities. The off-farm strategies referred to all non-farming or non-agricultural activities which are applied by farmers to have supplementary income at drought time and reduce the drought impacts from farmers' livelihood.

Table 4.24 Supporting from Impacts of Drought in Study Area Supporting Target Area Total from Paghman Deh Sabz Impacts of Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage the Drought (%) (%) (%) Yes 11 13.8 2 10.5 13 13.1 No 62 77.5 17 89.5 79 79.8 Not enough 7 8.7 0 0 7 7.1 Total 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Sample Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Simultaneously, according to households’ survey data (table 4.24), there are not any government strategies which can support the formers in the study area during drought situation. As the table 4.24 shows, 79.8% of the responders replied that they did not get any support from the government during the drought event, but 13.1% of them replied that they had gotten the government support when the drought is happening. Only 7.1% of the responders in the study area have replied that they have gotten the government support, but it is not enough. According to the key informant survey interview, the farmers and agricultural officers, some seeds supply during the drought time in the study area is imported by the Government, FAO project, and other donors, and farmers were assorted the fertilizer usage.

4.4.1 On-farm Adaptation Strategies of Farmers

These strategies are shown in table 4.25, most on-farm strategies were adopted by farmers in study area, and they are "delaying of plantation date", and "change the cropping system ". 46.5% of the respondents have used "delaying of plantation date", and 37.3% of them have

used "change the cropping system" as an adaptation strategy to drought. Also, there are other on-farm farmers' strategies (16.2%) in the study area which presented in table 4.25.

The on-farm strategies which were adopted and practiced by farmers to reduce the drought impacts on their farming are using by different methods and different available resources in different ways. Those strategies are agro-practice strategies, such as "delaying of plantation date, "change the cropping system." The strategy which is called "Agro Tool," and dealing by using agro tools or other technology such as "plastic mulch," etcetera. The strategies which are called "Irrigation Techniques Strategies," and are dealing with irrigation issues such as "using dripping or spraying," "deep wells," "using ponds," etcetera. Also, another on-farm strategy which is called "Resistance Variety" such as "drought-resistant crop varieties which can grow with less water," etcetera. According to the household survey data, the time for the recent droughts (2017-2018) in the study area was between Jun, July, August, September, and October which already mentioned in the table 4.12. Therefore, most of the farmers (83.8%) have chosen and managed the "Delaying of Plantation Date" and "Change the Cropping System" as the strategies based on their experience. On the other hand, the analysis from the mean temperature and rainfall amount in Kabul province shows that the dry and hot season (summer) start from June to August. The rainy season (spring) start from March to May, the cold dried season (fall) starts from September to November, and the cool snowing season (winter) starts from December to February (Table 4.26 and Fig 4.7).

Table 4.25 Drought On-farm Adaptive Strategies in Study Area Drought Target Area Total adaptive Paghman Deh Sabz strategies Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Delaying of 42 52.5 4 21.1 46 46.5 Plantation Date Change the 30 37.5 7 36.8 37 37.3 Cropping System Dripping 6 7.5 3 15.7 9 9.1 System of Irrigation Techniques Plastic Mulch 0 0 1 5.3 1 1.0 Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 Resistant Crop Varieties Nothing 2 2.5 4 21.1 6 6.1 Total Sample 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Also, interview to the farmers and survey data in the study area has shown that there are some agricultural products, such as cereals, potato, barley, maize, trees (fruitful and unfruitful), saffron/crocus and poppy, etcetera. Are the crops which have more resistance to drought? Most of the farmers (40.0%) in the Paghman district replied that the cereals are the crops that have more resistance with drought, and most farmers (94.7%) in the Deh Sabz district replied that the maize and the fruitful trees are the crops which have more resistance to the drought (Table 4.28). Therefore, usage of the plantation date for major crops in the

study area is necessary that farmers can cultivate the crops by the considering of it, and be beneficial for them and they can get more yield from them. Matching to the usual plantation date for major crops in the study area which shows in the table 4.31, the first strategy ("Delaying of Plantation Date") mostly adapted by wheat, onion, potato, and some fruits farmers (Table 4.28).

Table 4.26 Seasonal Pattern in the Study Area Season MAR APR MAY JUN Spring Season JUN JUL AUG SEP Summer Season SEP OCT NOV DEC Autumn Season DEC JAN FEB MAR Winter

Spring (rainy season) Summer (hot and dry season) Autumn or Fall (cold and dry season) Winter (very cold, and snow precipitation season) Source: Key Informant Survey and Ministry of Agriculture in Afghanistan, 2018

Figure 4.7 Time Spent in Various Temperature Bands and the Growing Season in Kabul Province The black line is the percentage chance that a given day is within the growing season. Source: Key Informant Survey and Ministry of Agriculture in Afghanistan, 2018

The beneficial of cropping system for the second on-farm strategy ("Change the Cropping System") which are more used by the farmers in the study area considered. The cropping system is the sequence of growing crops on a given land over a period. Therefore, cropping systems have to have cropping pattern and good management practices that compare with yield potential, inputs, soil fertility, and the range of climate variability in each area. The different crops planted about their purpose, tolerance of the maximum temperatures, weather

extremes, and economic return. Thus, the farmers modify cropping systems to response the climate change or drought impacts upon their farming production as an adaptation strategy. Matching to the data from the household survey in table 4.24, 37.3% of the respondents in the study area have adapted to change the cropping system in order to reduce the drought impacts on their farms. As the observation and interview to the farmers showed, farmers have changed the cropping system of the wheat, potato, and some vegetable (i.e., Strawberry, Tomatoes, and Cucumbers). For wheat and potato, the farmers have practiced crop rotation that this caused to increase productivity, maintaining, and moisture and reduce unwanted conditions. For the vegetable, mostly they have adapted two crops (Cucumbers and Strawberry) or three crops (Tomato, Strawberry, and Cucumbers) under the greenhouse at the same land and the same time.

Table 4.27 Drought Resistant Crops in the Study Area Drought Target Area Total Resistant Paghman Deh Sabz Crops Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Cereals 32 40.0 0 0 32 32.4 Potato 2 2.5 0 0 2 2.0 Barley 0 0 1 5.3 1 1.0 Maize 12 15.0 10 52.6 22 22.2 Fruitful trees 17 21.2 8 42.1 25 25.2 Unfruitful 10 12.5 0 0 10 10.1 trees Saffron/Croc 7 8.8 0 0 7 7.1 us and Poppy Total Sample 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Table 4.28 Usual Plantation Date and Growth Stages of Major Crops in the Study Area

Source: Key Informant Survey and Ministry of Agriculture in Afghanistan, 2018

According to the data from table 4.28, (9.1%) of respondents have applied "dripping system of irrigation techniques" as one of adaptation practice to reduce the impacts of drought from farms in study area. This system is useful because farmers can efficiently use their stored water for a long time. The primary constraint of this system is the high cost of it, and another barrier of this system is that sometimes water could not flow well into its pipe. Data from (Table 4.24) and households' survey reveals which only (1%) of respondents have adapted "mulch" as an adaptation strategy to reduce the impacts of drought in study area. "Plastic mulch" is more effective than organic mulch and other kinds of mulch, but its cost too high. 74

Therefore, small farmers could not afford to buy that, and (6.1%) farmers have not done anything to reduce the impacts of drought.

4.4.2 Off-farm Adaptation Strategies of Farmers

Off-farm strategy is mention to all non-agricultural activities and farmers apply them to obtain additional income during drought time. The off-farm methods such as, "income diversification," "business/ trade," "industrial labor," "migration," and "selling assets" adapted as a strategies to reduce impacts of drought on farmers livelihoods in the area. According to data from households' survey in table (4.32), farmers have used off-farm adaptation strategies to reduce negative impacts of drought on livelihoods and fulfill households’ needs in study area. According to data from households’ survey, (55.6%) of farmers are busy to diversify their income. (20.2%) From household are migrated to receive more income, (13.1%) of the respondents are engaged to business and trade activities inside and outside of their area, some of the household member (7.1%) engaged in industrial labor, and (4.0%) of the respondents are forced to sell their assets for fulfilling their needs. There is nobody of the respondents was adapted to create and supply handicrafts. However, some off-farm methods (selling assets and migration) are not good options, sometimes farmers choose them as a last choice for obtaining income and fulfilling livelihoods and household consumptions. The reality is that when the farmers' area and their livelihoods suffered from the negative impacts of severe drought, these above off-farm methods are as the strategies that can survive them.

Table 4.29 The Off-farm Farmers' Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the Impacts of Drought upon Livelihoods in the Study Area Off form Target Area Total strategies Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Income 42 52.4 13 68.4 55 55.6 Diversification Handicrafts 0 0 0 0 0 0 Business/ 13 16.7 0 0 13 13.1 Trade Non- 3 3.6 4 21.1 7 7.1 agriculture Labor Migration 18 22.3 2 10.5 20 20.2 Selling Assets 4 5.0 0 0 4 4.0 (livestock, machinery, land etc.) Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

The term of farmers income diversification in study area is that when only farm income is not able to complete farmers' economic needs, then farmers should be combined their both farm and non-farm incomes to fulfill household needs. Therefore, farmers engaged with additional jobs, such as labor on other farms of the other farmers, industrial labor inside their area, governmental employee, officer, shopkeeper, etcetera. (20.2%) from household are

migrated to receive more income. According to Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Martyrs and Disabled (MLSAMD), migration in Kabul province (study area) is mostly distinguished into two international and internal migration. In general, in term of temporary internal migration in Kabul province, the population is growing around one quarter due to entering of people. The key informant interview found out that compared to male's adults and females, most of the migrants are young males. Young members are migrated to support their family incomes' at the drought time, and they have not more interest to return into agricultural activities.

The respondents stated that some households from Kabul province are in the international permanent migration, and they have found more and better job opportunities in abroad. Therefore, they can get remittances, and support their family about education and household consumption. Afghans have been migrating primarily to the neighboring countries, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan, and they have also traveled further afield including to North America, European countries and Australia recently. The reason for migration is strongly related to unemployment and insecurity, environmental disaster, and lack of economic and educational opportunities.

Data from households’ survey revealed that 13.1% of farmers engaged in business or trade activities inside and outside of the area. They have mostly started the business in the local markets in the district, and they want to sell their some of agricultural and non- agricultural goods, and items in their shop. Therefore, they are busy as a businessman person or as a shopkeeper, and this method is one of the off-farm adaptive strategies to drought. It found out that 7.1% of respondents are engaged to industrial labor. They worked in industrial companies, such as the brick kiln, carpentry, welding, and etcetera. In own area or neighbored districts. 4.0% of the respondents are forced to sell their assets for fulfilling their needs. The data from the household survey (table 4.29) shows that 33% of the farmers have sold some item of their assets in the drought situation. Their assets which they have sold was a part of the land and some livestock. Because of drought, they forced to sell their assets to pay back their debts, and their children education.

4.5 Measures of Farmers for Drought Risk Reduction

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a normative action to recognize, specify and reduce the risks of disaster. It aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards through an order of prevention as well as the treatment against the environmental and other hazards that trigger them. For the understanding drought risk rate in the study area, there were some questions which through the answering of them by farmers' family can get the drought risk situation, assess the study area as well as by considering the solutions can reduce the drought disaster. Relevant to the literature review, there are two mechanisms for drought risk reduction. One is the livelihood diversification which shows the change of livelihood income. Another is crop insurance which a well-known kind of drought risk transfer. Livelihood diversification is the first mechanism for drought risk mitigation which already has discussed above, and crop insurance which is the second method of the drought risk reduction that discussed the following.

Table 4.30 Crop Insurance Awareness in Study Area Crop Target Area Total Insurance Paghman Deh Sabz Awareness Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentag (%) (%) e (%) Yes 8 10.0 1 5.3 9 9.1 No 72 90.0 18 94.7 90 90.9 Total Sample 80 100.0 19 100.0 99 100.0 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

According to households’ survey from table 4.30 is showing that (90.9%) of the responders have replied they do not know about the crop insurance, and (9.1%) of them be aware about the crop insurance, but until now is not used in the study area. Further, from the key informant interview are found out that all of the farmers want to adopt this method of the drought risk reduction to cope with drought risk, and they have said that the policy should regarding of drought risk reduction preparedness practiced. According to households’ survey and informant’s interviews, farmers and officers of agriculture suggested some solution options to the government that the government should apply them and reduce the drought risk. As the respondents stated, the suggestions are: (1) cleaning the karezs, (2) saving of water, (3) applying dripping irrigation system of, and (4) cultivating of drought resistance variety. The detail of the suggestions' options are in table 4.30 and it shows that (15.2%) of the responders want to clean the karez, 31.3% of them want to save the water, (41.1%) of the responders want to apply dripping system of irrigation, and (12.1%) of them want to cultivate the drought resistance variety.

Table 4.31 Solution Options against the Impacts of Drought in the Study Area Solution Target Area Total Options Paghman Deh Sabz Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage (%) (%) (%) Cleaning the 15 18.8 0 0 15 15.2 Karez Water Saving 12 15.0 19 100.0 31 31.3 Cultivating of 41 51.2 0 0 41 41.4 Drought Resistance Variety Applying 12 15.0 0 0 12 12.1 Dripping System of Irrigation Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Also, there are some other strategies against to drought in the study area that farmers' household have recommended them, and they are: (1) Educational programs on drought; (2) Development of public drought warning levels; and (3) Drought management plans. The detail of the other recommendations for drought risk reduction is in table 4.31, and it shows that 65.6% of the responders have recommended the educational programs on drought risk

mitigation, (20.2%) of them have recommended that the levels of public drought warning for risk reduction developed, and (14.2%) of responders have recommended that the government should create the drought risk mitigation management.

Table 4.32 Recommended Strategies against Drought in Study Area Recommended Target Area Total Strategies Paghman Deh Sabz against Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Frequency Percentage Drought (%) (%) (%) Educational 58 72.5 7 36.8 65 65.6 Programs on Drought Development 13 16.3 7 36.8 20 20.2 of Public Drought Warning Levels Drought 9 11.2 5 26.4 14 14.2 Management Plans Total Sample 80 100 19 100 99 100 Size Source: Household Survey, 2018

Chapter 5 Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Summary

Paghman and Deh Sabz districts of Kabul province are the drought-prone area and severely have been affected by drought in two last years (2017 and 2018). The majority of their population (80% percent) are engaged in agricultural activities, and their livelihood is related to the agricultural productivity. This thesis assessed the farmers' perception and understanding by addressing the farmers’ previous insight and experiences about drought. This thesis examines impacts of drought on agricultural products and farmers livelihoods. Then, identifies current adaptation strategies of farmers to reduce negative impacts of drought. Finally, relevant recommendation suggests in order to assist farmers to create sustainable livelihoods against to drought in future. This thesis based on sources of primary and secondary data. Primary data in structured questionnaire survey has collected by 99 households which are available in appendices. Micro-level analysis were done in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts that are chosen as the study area in Kabul province.

First target of this thesis is farmers' understanding, experiences, and interpretation about drought in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. Results from micro-level analysis is indicated that farmers are aware about drought issues, such as causes, occurrence of time, duration, impacts and its consequences. The results of households' survey and informants’ interviews indicates that farmers' perception (knowing climatic and environmental factors such as, weather, increasing of temperature, decreasing precipitation, changing seasons, etcetera) about drought is same results from secondary information. It found out which there were not significant differences between farmers' perception in two districts. Only farmers from Paghman area have experienced about drought in year of 2011, while farmers from Deh Sabz district have not experienced on drought in year of 2011.

Second objective of this research is focused to examine impacts of drought on agricultural products and farmers livelihoods in study area. The results of data from households' survey and informants interviews indicates that severe drought in years of 2017-2018 has affected farming productions and farmers’ livelihoods in study area. Results from farms have revealed that lack of precipitation and irrigation water shortage during the drought time were major problem which farmers faced by it. Therefore, can be said drought had affected on all crops in the Paghman district. (19%) of wheat and potato lost, about (17%) onion and barely lost, (12%) maize damaged, (10%) fruits harmed, and (7%) of vegetables harmed.

In Deh Sabz area crops, such as onion (44%), potato (34%), and fruits (22%) harmed. The household survey indicated that the drought was decreased number of livestock in Paghman district because the farmers cannot cultivate and store the forages for graining enough to feed the animals in the drought time. However, in Deh Sabz district farmers do not have livestock. Due to losses in agricultural productions, most of the farmers (21%-30%) of their income lost due to impacts of drought in study area. Farmers’ economic livelihoods have mostly influenced by losses of the agricultural income due to drought. To fulfill their household income and needs, (38.4%) of the respondents revealed that they are busy with non-agriculture labor. Most of the young males (20.2%) from the households are migrated to other places (international and internal migration) to receive more income and support their supplemental family income during the drought time. They have not more interest to return to agricultural activities.

Third goal of this thesis is about identifying farmers' current adaptation strategies for reducing the impacts of drought in the area. The results and findings indicate that farmers have shown their attention in order to adapt impacts of drought on agricultural practices at recent non-normal periods in study area. They have applied many adaptation strategies by using domestic techniques and resources availability under local conditions for reducing the impacts of drought. On-farm adaptation strategies such as, delay of plantation date and changing cropping system which are very famous have widely adapted by farmers in study area.

Regarding the on-farm adaptation strategies, the (46.5%) of the respondents have used "delaying of plantation date," (37.3%) of them have been chosen the "change the cropping system" as the adaptation strategy against drought. The other on-farm strategies such as "planting drought resistance crop variety," "using plastic mulch," and "dripping irrigation systems techniques" have chosen by (16.2%) of respondents to reduce impacts of drought from livelihoods in study area. In order to reduce impacts of drought on livelihood in study area, some off-farm strategies (income diversification, business/ trade, industrial labor, assets depletion, and migration) also have done by farmers. In this case, people can receive more income and can complete the households’ needs.

Furthermore, found out there were not significant differences between two study areas in term of adaptation strategies for reducing the impacts of drought on the farming. Also, the other aim of this study is some recommendations for managing impacts of drought, and measuring of drought risk reduction. In order to manage impacts of drought in study area, from all informants and household respondents about the recommendation and suggestion of them some questions were asked.

In order to save water and its usage on the drought time, changing crops into alternative and drought resistance crops which need less water, improving non-agricultural sectors in the study area for diversify farmers' income source by the government and other related organizations, the respondents are giving these following recommendations. As the respondents stated the suggestions were: (1) cleaning the karezs, (2) saving of water, (3) applying dripping irrigation system, and (4) cultivation of drought resistance crop variety. There are some differences between the two study areas (Paghman and Deh Sabz) in this research: (1) The farmers in Paghman district have an experience to drought by 2011, while the farmers from Deh Sabz district does not have the experience to the drought by 2011. (2) The duration of the drought in the Paghman district (June, July, and August) was higher than the Deh Sabz district (September to October). (3) Production loss in Paghman district was higher than the Deh Sabz district. (4) The loss of farming income in Paghman district was higher than the Deh Sabz district. (5) Livestock production in the Paghman district was higher than Deh Sabz district. (6) The water distribution conflict was higher in Paghman district than the Deh Sabz district at drought time. (7) Number of farmers who have adapted dripping irrigation system in Paghman district is higher than Deh Sabz district. (8) The number of pond users and well-rooted users were higher in Deh Sabz district. (9) May-April to July was higher in Paghman district than the Deh Sabz district. (10) May-April to August and September were higher in Deh Sabz district than the Paghman district. Finally, it is terminated by a brief recommendation and suggestion of some effective adaptation strategies against drought in order to manage impacts of drought in future.

5.2 Conclusion

Farmers have good experience and understanding about drought and its consequences, but they are not able to predict drought in the area. Same results also were indicated by secondary sources. The drought in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts in Kabul province has significant impacts on agricultural productions, and current drought happened at the seasons which is hit by time of plantation and harvesting of some crops in the study area.

Therefore, deficiency of precipitation over last years (2009-2018) has resulted decline in production of significant crops and vegetables. However, farmers applied some different adaptation strategies to reduce impacts of drought on agricultural activities and livelihood, but level of ability of them is inadequate, and some of farmers cannot done these practices. Concerning of some on-farm adaptation strategies such as, digging deep wells, dripping irrigation system, mulch and etc. that are need high cost to establish and practice. Therefore, adapting abilities of farmers highly depend on socio-economic characteristics. Many off- farm strategies also have been adapted to reduce impacts of drought on livelihood by farmers, but some of strategies such selling assets and migration cannot permanently help income of farmers. The negative consequences of these strategies are very considerable on households' future. For instance, if the younger family members migrate to find supplementary income in order to support households. Therefore, women and elderly members of family should care for the children and another duties then the elderly members, women and children faced by problems.

This thesis has finished literature about drought field, and findings of this study are consistent according to the exist literature about drought in Afghanistan and other regions. Because of there is a little study or no study has been done in field of drought in study area, the findings and results of this study about adaptation strategies against drought, understanding of impacts of drought on agricultural productions and farmers livelihoods for study area and even country can be useful and practical. In addition, this thesis assists regional and rural planners, agricultural officials that they can formulate development plans, policies, and extend useful and practical services now and the future by most effective adaptation strategies in order to farmers contain sustained livelihoods against to drought.

5.3 Recommendation The recommendation is the managing to present the impacts of the drought in this study. What was found out from the informant survey and discussion with farmers? This study provide recommendations for managing the impacts of the drought based on discussion, analysis, and findings. For example, there is a question in the questionnaire that "What strategies do you recommend that should be done to adapt for reducing the future drought impacts?" Moreover, they should react based on their experiences of drought. Then, with this question can be found some useful and effective strategies to manage impacts of drought in future.

According to the result of households’ survey and reporters’ interview, farmers and agricultural officers had suggested some subsequent solution options. If that suggestion is applied, the impacts of drought reduced. The recommendations in this regard were: (1) cleaning the karezs, (2) saving of water, (3) applying irrigation dripping system, and (4) cultivation of variety drought resistant. According to observation data, study area has lots of irrigation karezs. The karezs and canals have blind and closed. If they are not rebuild, it

would be not possible to solve problems of irrigation system at drought time. Also, informants stated it need to create water distributor in study area that it can help diffusion more water in the area. They also stated that farmers should change the crops into alternative crops which are drought resistant and need less water. Therefore, related organizations should improve non-agricultural sectors to diversify sources of income for farmers in study area. Also, some other recommended strategies by farmers' household against to drought in the study area are: (1) Educational programs on drought; (2) Development of public drought warning levels; and (3) Drought management plans.

This study shows which drought has impacted on agricultural productions and livelihoods. According to farmers understanding about drought and its consequences, some adaptation strategies have been already adapted by farmers in study area. As some of these strategies were very effective and some of them were less adapted. Because of some constraints of the farmers, such as lack of enough budget, and lack of skill, some strategies adapted less. In order to reduce impacts of drought by farmers, making current more effective strategies, and find other effective methods or ideas, this study through interview with farmers and key informants has considered some recommendations for managing the impacts of drought in future. The following recommendations can be help farmers, beneficiary governmental and NGOs organizations to improve drought adaptation strategies. Then, they can made plans by using some methods to deal with drought: (1) Awareness about drought and its time which farmers can manage their agricultural activities by that. Hence, they will be able to find out an additional income sources, and before their livelihoods be influenced to the impacts of drought, they can save them. (2) Because of high cost adaptation strategies which require more money, and poor farmers cannot supply them. Thus, government and other non- government organization should support these kind of adaptation strategies, such as dripping irrigation system, digging of deep wells, plastic mulch, cleaning karezs, and etc. (3) Farmers should diversify their cropping, or it would be good if they engage in integrated farming. (4) One of significant impacts of drought is soil erosion because rain is no during drought period. Then, in the end of drought time will be heavy and suddenly rain. As a result soil erosion be occur. Therefore, the farmers should delay their farms in order to save them from the soil erosion by the heavy rains in the first stage. (5) According to households' survey result in this study, resistance crops and less affected by drought reported. Thus, farmers should extend these kind of short period crops (cereals, fruitful trees, saffron, potato, and maize etc.). (6) Because of 80% population of study area are engaged in agricultural activities, they may not be able to supply their livelihoods and needs. Therefore, government should diversify economy in the study area that farmers' source of income against to climate shocks will be keep. (7) Farmers should lift livestock resources in both areas, and the government has to support technically and financially them. (8) As it found, one of the most successful adaptation strategies was "income diversification" that have been mostly done by some farmers to reduce impacts of drought on livelihoods in study area. Thus, recommended to be more improve, and farmers can get them and diversify their income sources. (9) Also community has to assess national and international markets to sell the products. (10) Community must prepare the crop insurance or other financial support for farmers who have sold their assets due to drought. In this way, they can to pay their debts. (11) Community must support the farmers' income generating activities and rehabilitation of some essential farm to the market roads. (12) The government should focus on conservation about natural resources such as, pasture lands, resources of water etcetera. Moreover, also has to start the planting of trees in study area because it would be beneficial for reducing the impacts of the drought, and it can support the climate and the ecosystem as well. (13) Organization of the karez system requires the setup of common of people and government work together.

Government should support rehabilitation of irrigation networks and drainage, and agricultural land. (14) Construction for all private wells should be done based on the establishing the right location, correctly sizing of the system and choosing the proper techniques. Only professional water contractors should install wells.

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Appendices Appendix 1 Questionnaire

Part 1 General Information

1. Gender: ( ) 1. Male ( ) 2. Female

2. Age: ………… Years

3. Education: ( ) 1. Illiterate ( ) 2. Primary ( ) 3. Secondary ( ) 4. Diploma ( ) 5. Graduate ( ) 6. Others …………………………………………………………………………………..

4. Marital Status: ( ) 1. Single ( ) 2. Married ( ) 3. Separate ( ) 4. Divorced ( ) 5. Widow

5. Main Occupation: ( ) 1. Farmer ( ) 2. Non-agricultural worker ( ) 3. Business/Trade ( ) 4. Official ( ) 5. Others (specify) ………………………………………………………….

6. Please fill in the following table with needed information No Household Gender Age in Years Marital Education Occupation Member Status Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Note: The table information should cover these issues:

 Gender: Male or Female  Education Level: Illiterate, Primary, Secondary, Diploma, Graduate, High school, College, or Others  Marital Status: Single, Married, Separate, Divorced, or Widow  Household Member: Head of household, father, mother, spouse, son, daughter, or Other  Occupation: Farmer, Non-agricultural worker, Business/Trade, Official, or Others

7. How much is your annual income? ……………………………………… Afghani Rupee

8. How many is your annual income from agriculture ……..…...... and how many is from non-agriculture? ……………………………………………………………..

9. Does the agricultural production meet your household requirement in a year? ( ) Yes ( ) No

10. How many people are working in your family? Number ………………………………...

11. What is your household labor? ……......

12. How long have you been living in this area? ...... Years

13. How many years’ experience of farming do you have? ...... Years

14. What is the type of water available for irrigation in your farmland? ( ) 1. Rain ( ) 2. Karez ( ) 3. Well ( ) 4. Springs ( ) 5. Canal ( ) 6. River ( ) 7. Streams

15. Is the irrigation source and water supply sufficient and working well for your land condition? ( ) Yes ( ) No

Part 2 Farmers’ Perception and Experience about Drought

16. What is your understanding from the drought? ( ) 1. Lack or late of rainfall ( ) 2. Lack of irrigation and water supply ( ) 3. No pasture for grazing ( ) 4. Dry soil ( ) 5. Dusty ( )

17. Please fill in the following table about the drought in your area. No. Year the Drought Duration of the Intensity: 1. Very low, 2. Low, 3. Happening drought (months) Moderate, 4.High, 5.Very high 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

18. During the drought time, what has happened on your household and what are the problems that you have faced because of drought? You can select more than one. ( ) 1. Drying water resources ( ) 2. Makes surrounding drier ( ) 3. Famine ( ) 4. Crop failure ( ) 5. Loss of livestock ( ) 6. Poor health of humans/malnutrition ( ) 7. Poor health of livestock ( ) 8. Increase food price ( ) 9. Decline in livestock price

Part 3 Impacts of Drought on Crops and Livestock (Livelihood)

19. How much land holding do you have? ………….. (Jerib)

20. How much the average sowing per year is? …………. (Jerib) Average sowing during the drought year? ……………. (Jerib)

21. Please fill in the following table about your crops and production. Before Drought Time During Drought Time Area Yield Area Yield No Crop Crop (jerib) (Kg per jerib) (jerib) (Kg per jerib) 1 Wheat Wheat 2 Potato Potato 3 Barley Barely 4 Onion Onion 5 Maize Maize Others, (specify) Others, (specify) 6 ………………… …………………

22. Which crops are affected by drought? Please write the crop name and percentage of its production loss for each crop in your area in ranked order. (1) ………………………..with ………..% of production loss (2) ………………………..with ………..% of production loss (3) …………………………with ………% of production loss (4) …………………………with ………% of production loss (5) …………………………with ………% of production loss

23. Which crops do you think are affected less by drought? Please specify (1)……………………………………………….. …………………………………………... (2)……………………………………………………………………………………………. (3)…………………………………………………………………………………………….

24. How much was the approximately gross farm of your income in the normal average year? In Afghani Rupees...... , and how much was the gross farm of your income in the drought year? In Afghani Rupees ......

25. How drought affects in your livestock production? Number of Head Number of Head Number of Death Head No Livestock (before drought) (after drought) (because of drought) 1 Sheep 2 Cow 3 Goat 4 Donkey 5 Chicken Others (specify) 6 …….…………

26. Problem related to livestock Problems Less Water and pasture Livestock Lack of marker production shortage disease Normal year Drought year

27. Do livestock get sufficient water in drought year? ( ) 1.Less ( ) 2.Very less ( ) 3.Medium ( ) 4.High ( ) 5.Very high

28. Gross income from livestock. Normal year……...Afghani, Drought year……….Afghani

29. Has drought influenced your yearly farming income? ( ) 1. Yes ( ) 2. No If yes, how much is the percentage of your farming income loss due to drought? ...... %

30. What are the socio-economic impacts of drought on you and your household? You can select more than one. ( ) 1. Decreasing household income ( ) 2. Rising the food prices ( ) 3. Limitation of the household consumption ( ) 4. Food scarcity and malnutrition ( ) 5. Dependency to non-farm income ( ) 6. High rate of crime ( ) 7. Others (specify)…. ……………………………………………………………………..

31. Have you sold out any part of your assets due to drought? If yes please define which part of your assets were sold? ………………………………………………………………...

32. How is livelihood threatened by drought? You can select more than one. ( ) 1. Low income ( ) 2. Rising costs ( ) 3. Limit the household food menu ( ) 4. Rely on non-farm income ( ) 5. Food Scarcity and Malnutrition ( ) 6. Others, (specify)…….…………………………………………………………………..

Part 4 Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Drought

33. What kind of adaptive strategy you followed during drought? You can select more than one. ( ) 1. Delaying of plantation date ( ) 2. Change the cropping system ( ) 3. Plastic mulch ( ) 4. Using dripping or spraying irrigation techniques ( ) 5. Drought resistance crop varieties which can grow with less water ( ) 6. Others (specify)……………. …………………………………………………………..

34. What are the off-farm strategies during drought time that you or your neighbors proceed your livelihood and fulfill your household needs and consumptions? Please specify, and you can select more than one. ( ) 1. Handicrafts ( ) 2. Income diversification ( ) 3. Business ( ) 4. Industrial worker ( ) 5. Migration ( ) 6. Assets sale (livestock, machinery, land etc.) ( ) 7. Other, (specify) …….…. …………......

35. Have you adopted any measures to solve water stress from drought impacts? ……………………………………………………………………………………………….

36. Are there any governmental and non-governmental policies to support you and your agricultural production from the drought impacts? ………………………………………

37. What strategies do you recommend that should be done to adapt for reducing the future drought impacts in your area? ……………………………………………………………

Part 5 Measures of drought risk reduction

38. Do you know about the crop insurance? ( ) 1. Yes ( ) 2. No

39. Does insurance help to reduce the drought risk today? ( ) 1.Yes ( ) 2. No If yes how? ……………………………………………………………………………….

40. What is the most important challenge facing the crop insurance? ……………………………………………………………………………………………......

41. Are there any measures of drought risk reduction that you would consider? ......

42. What would you consider the best option to inform you on drought? ( ) 1. Educational programs on drought ( ) 2. Development of public drought warning levels ( ) 3. Drought Management Plans ……………………………………………………………………….

43. Is there should be a policy regarding of drought risk reduction preparedness? ......

Thank you for spending the time and complete this questionnaire

Appendix 2 Checklist for the key informant interviews (expert’s people, elders and farmers)

Name: ………………..

Position: ………………

Organization: …………….

Date of interview ………….

1. What are the problems in here when drought is happening?

2. Could you explain the factors that can cause drought in this area?

3. Is there any water resource committee in your village, if yes, what are its main roles?

4. Is there any proper mechanism to reduce the water resources degradation and drought?

5. What is your perspective about the current role and regulation of water resource? Is it efficient?

6. What do you think what kind of strategies are suitable for coping water resources degradation and drought?

7. Do the farmers have capacity to respond the drought?

8. What is the major impact of drought on agricultural production?

9. What action you have done to prevent drought impacts and water loss?

10. What action you have done to reduce drought impacts on livelihood?

11. What is the repercussion of governmental and NGOs regarding the drought impacts?

12. What do you expect from the governmental and non-governmental institution?

13. Do you have any suggestion and recommendation to enhance impact of water resource degradation on agricultural land and agriculture productivity?

14. What plans do you have for dealing with drought?

15. If the droughts continue, what is your survival strategies and solutions?