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Adaptation Strategies for Drought Risk Reduction in Farmers' Livelihoods

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Adaptation Strategies for Drought Risk Reduction in Farmers' Livelihoods Adaptation Strategies for Drought Risk Reduction in Farmers’ Livelihoods: A Case Study of Kabul, Afghanistan by Roya Quraishi A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Climate Change and Sustainable Development Examination Committee: Dr. Indrajit Pal (Chairperson) Dr. Nicolas Faysse Dr. Sylvia Szabo Nationality: Afghan Previous Degree: Bachelor of Science in Hydrometeorology Kabul University Afghanistan Scholarship Donor: Ministry of Higher Education (MoHE), Afghanistan-AIT Fellowship Asian Institute of Technology School of Environment, Resources and Development Thailand December 2018 i Acknowledgments First of all, I would thank Allah (SWT) who is very kind and merciful and gave me the chance to finish my thesis successfully and obtain my master degree. The finishing of this thesis was not possible without the help, cooperation, and guidance of the people who expanded their contribution and valuable assistance for the preparation of this study one way or another. With this, I would like to express my respect and gratitude to them. Foremost, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Indrajit Pal who is an assistant professor at Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management (DPMM) program at Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand for the personal guidance, permanent encouragement, and his helpful criticism. He always has given me dynamism with continual energy and enthusiasm during the research. When I wanted to meet him for the solution of hardship or question about my writing or research, his office door always was open. He has consistently steered me in the right direction. I relate my master degree to his encouragement and effort and saying that this thesis would not have been completed without him. Every person can choose him as a better or friendlier supervisor. Once again, I would like to thank him for all of his invaluable guidance and support. I want to offer my sincere gratitude to my thesis committee members as well. One is Dr. Nicolas Faysse who is a visiting faculty at the Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate (DEEC), School of Environment Resources and Development (SEED), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand. He lectures in Climate Change and Sustainable Development program (CCSD), and another committee member is Dr. Silvia who is an assistant professor in the Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) School of Environment Resources and Development (SEED) from Regional and Rural Development Planning Field (RRDP) at Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand for the spending of their valuable time, warm comments, critical advice, and for helping me find my faults. They also encouraged me with questions which widened my research from various perspectives. Once again, many thanks for all their helpful guidance and comments. Also, I am grateful for the guidance of all my department members, my seniors, and friends at the AIT who have supported and encouraged me. I am highly beholden from my beloved family members especially for my respected husband that he kindly assisted me. This achievement cannot have been possible without the love, prayers, and their encouragement and moral support throughout my study at AIT. Also, I want to thank all my Geo Science faculty members of Kabul University of Afghanistan and their assistance. ii Abstract Among all of the natural hazards, drought is one of the significant risks for the people's livelihoods and socio-economic progress. It is most recently realized that drought is the most complex and a common climatic hazard which more effects on people particularly the farmers and their livelihoods than any other hazards. The first impact of the drought is on agriculture, and its threats both agriculture and non-agriculture sectors which are dependent on the drought-affected area. The two districts (Paghman and Deh Sabz) from Kabul province of Afghanistan which are chosen as the study area are the drought-prone area. The farmers have been suffering from drought during the recent years, and it is a long time that the farmers have experienced the drought and its negative consequences on their farming and livelihoods. They also have a good perception of drought and its impacts on their agro- based livelihood. Thus, they have applied some adaptation strategies to reduce the drought impacts on farming and livelihood at their area based on their previous experiences. This study has attempted to focus on farmers' adaptation strategies to drought in order to find out that which farmers' strategies or techniques can be adapted to reduce the impacts of drought on their agricultural productions and livelihoods. Furthermore, this study has assessed the farmers' perception and understanding against to the drought and its impacts on agriculture and farmer livelihoods. Thus, in the two districts (Paghman and Deh Sabz) from Kabul province of Afghanistan which are defined as the target area of this study, and also these are the drought-affected area. Therefore, the farmers have experienced and adapted some strategies to reduce the impacts of drought from their fields. Micro-level analysis has determined that farmers are well aware of the drought issues. The farmers' perception and their understanding of the drought belong to their experience. Besides, the rainfall is deficient due to drought and drop of the water resources levels which also has impacted on the agricultural productions in the study area. The agricultural productions such as crops, livestock, vegetables, and fruits have declined. Thus, the farmers have lost their agricultural productions due to impacts of drought, and their livelihoods (income, household consumptions, labor, and rural community) have been affected as well. The farmers' adaption strategies are the on-farm and off-farm adaptation strategies that they can reduce the impacts of drought upon their farming and livelihoods. The primary on-farm adaptation strategies are delaying of plantation date, changing the cropping system, using mulch, applying the dripping system of irrigation. On the other hand, the primary off-farm strategies are income diversification, business/trade, migration, non-agricultural labor, and selling assets. The findings and results of this study are consistent with existing literature on drought in Afghanistan and other regions and will be useful and useful for application of adaptation strategies into drought, understanding the drought impacts on agricultural productions, and farmer's livelihoods. Because of no done any researches about to drought in the study area, this thesis will assist the regional and rural planners, officials, rural related sectors, and other departments that they formulate the development plans, extending useful policies and services. Thus, the farmers can cope with drought with using the useful adaptation strategies and sustain their livelihoods. iii Table of Contents Chapter Title Page Title Page i Acknowledgements ii Abstract iii Table of Contents iv List of Tables vi List of Figures viii List of Abbreviations ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background of the Study 1 1.2 The Strategies for Drought Risk Management in 5 Afghanistan 1.3 The Rationale of the Study /Problem Statement 7 1.4 Research Objectives 9 1.5 Scope and Limitations 10 1.6 Conceptual Framework 10 2 Literature Review 12 2.1 Understanding Concept of Drought 12 2.2 Drought Characteristics and Types 13 2.3 Potential Impacts of Drought 15 2.4 The Trend of Drought in Afghanistan 16 2.5 Impact of Drought on Water Resources and Agricultural 18 Sectors in Afghanistan 2.6 Impact of Drought on Livelihood and Food Security in 20 Afghanistan 2.7 Drought Adaptation 21 2.8 Drought Adaptation in Afghanistan 24 2.9 Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Drought 26 2.10 Risk Transfer Mechanism for Drought Risk Mitigation 28 3 Research Methodology 36 3.1 Research Design 36 3.2 Province Outlook 37 3.3 The Study Area 43 3.4 Sampling Methods 48 3.5 Data Sources 49 3.6 Data Analysis 50 4 Results and Discussion 52 4.1 Socioeconomic Profile of Respondents 52 4.2 Farmers' Understanding, Experiences, and Interpretation 56 of Drought 4.3 Impacts of Drought 61 4.4 Farmers' Current Adaptation Strategies to Reduce the 70 Impacts of Drought in the Study Area iv 4.5 Farmers' Measures of Drought Risk Reduction 76 5 Conclusion and Recommendations 79 5.1 Summary 79 5.2 Conclusion 81 5.3 Recommendation 81 6 References 84 7 Appendices 90 v List of Tables Table Title Page 2.2 Benefits Amount of Insurance in the World in June 2017 34 General Demographic (Population, Sex, and Sex Ratio and Other 3.1 42 Important Information) of the Kabul Province' Districts. 2004 3.2 The distribution of land area in Paghman and Deh Sabz districts. 46 Annual agricultural tons incomes in USD $ by hectare of land in 3.3 46 2008 Farmers' products in kg in the study area (Paghman and Deh Sabz 3.4 47 districts) 3.5 Sample Size 49 4.1 Classification of Respondents by Age 52 Classification of Respondents by Years of Living in the Study 4.2 53 Area 4.3 Classification of Respondents (Household Heads) by Gender 53 4.4 Statistical Information of Number of Household Worker 54 Occupational Structure of Sample Respondents' Household 4.5 54 Members 4.6 Crops Annual Income in the Study Area 55 4.7 Livestock Annual Income in the Study Area 55 4.8 Education Background of Households’ Members 56 4.9 Understanding of Drought by Farmers in the Study Area 57 4.10 Years of Farmers Living in the Study Area 58 4.11 Experiences
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