Quick viewing(Text Mode)

Unconventional Oil and Gas -Current Status and Issues

Unconventional Oil and Gas -Current Status and Issues

IEEJ: January 2011

Unconventional Oil and Gas -Current Status and Issues-

Japan-China Joint Symposium on Asian Oil & Gas -The 4th IEEJ/CNPC Research Meeting-

December 10th, 2010 Yuji Morita The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan 2 ） 2008 4,349 3,336 4,101 （ Production MillionTOE End 2008 ） 179,744 181,742 500,483 （ means of conventional wells means of conventional / Production t to market in an ） onventional if it is R/P Reserves 77.5 54.4 435.9 213.2 127.8 Years 4,718 7,879 15,426 135,634 107,617 － Re-injected Conventional and Unconventional and Unconventional Conventional 3 ） 598 916 underground reservoirs by 5,225 6,739 82,120 29,974 2008 that the Resource is C （ Production Thousand B/D Million BBL chnology and can be brough chnology Gross Production Gross （ Survey of Energy Resources 2010 Re-injected Flared Shrinkage 、 Total Gross Production ft Billion Production Net er at an affordable cost WEC l if it is produced from ： ） Proved Source 404,762 260,789 195,387 860,938 Reserves End 2008 6,549,159 1,238,834 41.2 （ Recoverable efinition of the difference between R/P for = ） current or foreseeable te 3 ) Note （ Conventional Energy Resources Lignite ： Oil is considered conventiona nthracite A ×Billion ft ×Billion Natural Gas Natural ×Million BBL Sub-bituminous Oil (incl. NGL) Bituminous (incl. Bituminous ） IEA 2011 ×Million Total Coal ×Million Tons ×Million Total Coal

obtainable using Resources. However, it is generally considered considered it is generally However, Resources. environmentally acceptable mann environmentally There is no distinct d （ Note January IEEJ: 3 BBL 7 10 × Oil are estimated at 4.8 Source ; The Developers Group, Canada R/P rld in the years ahead. rld in the years SourceU.S.; Department State, of Global Gas Initiative × t substances ( bitumen) and B/D Thousand Production End 2008 ） （ Conventional Oil Conventional oduce today than because of the the of Shale Oil because than today oduce Reserves 0 994 2,566 >100 35 31 1,526 5.5 l world resources of Shale In-place Oil Shale resources energy needs of the wo energy Reserves oil is cheaper to pr is cheaper to oil Production Cumulative situ. Though tota Extra-Heavy Oil Extra-Heavy ators must apply heat to conver ators must apply Survey of Energy Resources 2010 、 In-place d heating. Because of these hi gher costs, oil shale presents resources ） WEC s ： Reserve 0 0 119 10 1 0 286 151 12 2 3,682 937 14,748 17.4 0 0 21,1150 147 579 0 0 0 0 382 7,521 26,389 77.9 0 0 21,136 148 580 824 1,198 6,515 50.3 0 0 26 2 0 37,068 284 6,734 11.5 0 424 177 9 9 4,161 737 10,806 18.7 0 284 2 0 0 2,479 790 9,886 21.8 0 18 5 0 1 1,592 1,365 10,355 36.0 Source Natural Bitumen Production Cumulative （ 0 0 0 535 643 3,489 3,468 Non-Conventional Oil Resources 24,342 64 1,704 0 0 0 152 218 3,201 18.6 33,286 65 2,432 21,499 171 591 47,861 12,388 82,120 41.2 Oilsand In-place resources 2011 Oceania 4,268 ・ January Total World Total trillion barrels, based crude based petroleum barrels, trillion an of costs additional some of the opportunities for supplying into oil, either above ground or in ground oil, either above into To obtain oil from Oil Shale, oper Russia KingdomUnited 0 Venezuela U.S.A. Canada Middle East Middle Asia Europe Africa North AmericaNorth 24,886 America Latin 64 1,704 30 2 0 37,221 629 13,307 12.9 IEEJ: 4 ） R/P Tcf Years May 1996 （ May

2008 ） （ n Productio ） Conventional Gas End 2008 Reserves （ 2010 ） WEC （ Gas from Fractured Gas from 1996 ） （ ources: Focus on Tight Formation IIASA IIASA “An Assessment of WorldResources” Assessment “An 0 823 2,547 1,305 2,969 19 128.8 、 39 1,293 2,116 37339 274 784 7 27439 30.8 1,017 744 220 313 1,307 2 74.6 341 10 32.9 Unconventional Natural Gas 157118 353 509 78 559 39 559 143470 705 10 13 2,312 13.7 745 1 15.4 32 2 15.3 3,017 1,371 3,840 4,4713,957 307 901 26 6271,215 10.8 5,402 353 2,134 3,5269,051 372 28 7,405 16,103 71.7 16,110 117 6,549 3 108 39.5 54.4 Coalbed Methane TotalWorld Hans-Holger Rogner 2010 Res of Energy Survey Survey of Energy Resources 2010 Survey 、 、 、 NORTHAMERICA LATINAMERICA ＆ THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL & EASTERNEUROPE FORMERSOVIET UNION & EAST MIDDLE NORTHAFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA CENTRAL PLANNED CHINA & ASIA PACIFIC OECD SOUTHASIA& ASIA OTHER PACIFIC Non-Conventional Gas Resources IIASA WEC WEC ： 2011 January Source IEEJ: 5 Coalbed methane does not migrate but is shale, from generated during the transformation of organic material to coal. is the source until now, has Gas-rich shale Gas-rich for many natural gas resources, but, not been a focus for production. Horizontal drilling and have made shale gas an economically viable alternative to conventional gas resources. DOE/EIA ： Source non- accumulates accumulates an overlying grates from gas ion, and then does not Associated gas Schematic Geology of Natural Gas 2011 associated gas in conjunction with oil, while accumulate with oil. Conventional gas accumulations occur when gas mi into an overlying rich shale sandstone format becomes trapped by impermeable formation, called the seal . January IEEJ: 6 ） B/D 390,000 880,000 520,000 450,000 （ ine oil sands field in the 1,057,000 3,297,000 Alberta Department of Energy of Department Alberta from Synenco In Inc. Energy ： am Project in Alberta. am Japan Canada Oil Sands Ltd. Bitumen Production Capacity Source to sell its 9.03 percent interest in interest to sell its 9.03 percent lion for a 40% interest in the Kai Kos Kos Kai in the interest 40% lion for a NLP will now owned venture be a 50:50 basca Oil Sands Corp. (AOSC)’s Corp. Oil Sands basca MacKay Oil Sands Mining Projects Total Total a 100% stake in the Blackgold a 100% M In Operation Project Status Construction Under Approval With Regulatory Review Regulatory Under Announced/Disclosed the Joslyn Oil Sands Upstre hern Lights Partnership (NLP) (NLP) Partnership Lights hern current 7,000 to 8,000 b/d the end by of 2014. ） B/D 833,500 217,300 825,500 906,455 （ 2,439,000 5,221,755 entered into agreements with announced to pay Norway’s Statoil $2.2 bil $2.2 Statoil Norway’s to pay announced Bitumen Production Capacity Oil-Sands Projects acquired a 10% interest in interest acquired a 10% announced to buy 60% of stakes in Atha of stakes 60% announced to buy PTT has announced that the company's Canadian subsidiary, Canadian subsidiary, has announced that the company's has signed an agreement to buy INPEX bought a 40% interest in the Nort in the interest 40% bought a The Oil Sands Developers Group, Canada ： PetroChina JAPEX Total Total KNOC Oil Sands In-situ Projects In-situ Oil Sands Sinopec Source In Operation Project Status Construction Under Approval With Regulatory Review Regulatory Under Announced/Disclosed 2011 In Sept. 2009, River and Dover oil-sands projects for a US$1.7-billion. In April 2010, ConocoPhillips has Syncrude for $4.65 billion. In Nov. 2010, Thailand’s (JACOS) seeks to upgrade to 35,000 b/d from % stake from Total. The shareholding stake from Sinopec inApr. 2009, bought a 10 % Total and Sinopec. by In July 2006, Cold region of Alberta. In November 2007, Dehseh project in Alberta. In Nov. 2010, In 2005, January        IEEJ: 7 ） Cost Supply C$/BBL 2007Price （ Cost Price at Plant Gate Operating 61.7 2061.7 36-37 19 34-35 ～ ～ CO2 ts, have been rais ed as critical Emissions KgCO2/BBL $15 per tonne for excess emissions 1.1 51.4 1.1 51.4 of Bitumen ～ ～ n.a. 51.4 23 72 tcf/BBL 1.0 1.0 Natural Gas . Consumption ） xious to adopt technology to address these to address these technology adopt to xious ～ ～ 48,000 35,000 35,000 C$/BBL 30,000 30,000 + 46,000 +

Investment

Survey of Energy Resources 2010 、 equires 1.15 barrels WEC gas consumed and generation of CO2 involved in the thermal B/D 30,000 30,000 ： 100,000 48,000100,000 0.5 26.7 13 36-37 th availability of water and diluen th availability Production ssumes CO2 compliance cost of ） of taxes and cost Source SCO Sythetic Product Bitumen Bitumen （ Crude Oil Production Cost of Oil Sand ） ） WEC, Survey of Energy Resources 2010 of Energy WEC, Survey ） Method （ Production 2011 Note SCO Production （ 1US$ = 0.95 C$ Operating Cost exclusive Supply Cost at Plant Gate a over 100,000 tonnes /Year Upgrading assumes 1 barrel SCO r SAGD Mining/ExtractionMining/Extraction/ Bitumen Upgrading （ Cyclic Steam Cyclic (Cold Lake Concerns about the volumes of the volumes of Concerns about recovery processes, along wi an appears industry The issues. environmental issues January IEEJ: 8 2.71.3 3.3 2.2 3.92.7 2.9 4.3 1.3 3.2 3.5 2.1 3.2 2.1 3.0 2.1 2009 2015 2020 2025 ） ） Mining In-Situ （ （ June 2010 Million B/D Oilsand Oilsand Canada Atlantic NGL Conventional Heavy Conventional Light& Medium Growth Case Production Oil Total Oilsand Production Construction In & Operating Production Oil Total Oilsand Production 875 2,975 1,032 1,068 1,079 1,068 3,202 3,160 1,020 1,051 2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook 、 、 657 690 2,722 CAPP Forecast of Oil Sand Production ： 2011 439 534 Source 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2,489 0 500 January ×1000 B/D 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 IEEJ: 9 ） June 2010 、 ） ） 2013, 700,000 B/D （ ion 525,000 B/D ） 2015 B/D 400,000 （ 2015 80,000 B/D ）（ 2016 320,000 B/D ） May, 2010 Applicat （ （ April, 2010 450,000 B/D ） （ July, 2010 435,000 B/D July, （ Oil Sand Pipeline 2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook 、 CAPP ： Alberta Clipper TransCanada Keystone XL & Keystone TransCanada Louisiana Access options TransCanada Keystone TransCanada Enbridge Northern Gateway Kinder Morgan TMX2, TMX3 Kinder Morgan Northern Leg Expansion Leg Morgan Northern Kinder Source ① ③ ② ④ ⑤ ⑥ 2011 January IEEJ: 10 179 108 1,703 2,112 177 113 1,723 1,316 PDVSA ： 582 175 994 Source 460 174 873 incorporation of 39.9 billion barrels 384 175 125 123 119 e Orinoco heavy oil belt and traditional Venezuela's Ministry of Energy and 387 177 125 806 800 tical Bulletin 2009 published in 2010, 2009 stood at 211.2 billion barrels. 352 176 123 771 2.3 Bil. bbls 172.3 atBil. end 2008, bbls at end 2009 11°) 354 174 125 772 30°) ＜ 21°) ～ ～ 30°) 356 173 129 778 ＞ 357 172 128 777 Extra Heavy (API (API Extra Heavy 11° (API Heavy Middle 21° (API Light (API Condensate enezuela Petroleum Reserves 357 169 122 769 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 V BBL 0 8 500 ×10 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010: 17 2010: ofReview WorldBP Statistical Energy BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009: 99.4 Bil. bbls 99.4 2009: of World Energy Review Statistical BP 2008 end at 2011 ： → According to OPEC's Annual Statis Venezuela's proven in This is the same figure announced by Petroleum this year to take into account the new certified proven oil reserves from th areas during 2009. Note January   IEEJ: 11 ％ 70.0 ％ ％ (Hamaca) Ayacucho PDVSA 30.0 ％ Chevron 30.0 ConocoPhillips 40.0% PDVSA 30.0 Chevron ％ ％ ％ ％ 8.5 8.7 38.0 47.0 ％ 15.0 60.00 ％ 30.32 9.68 ～

(Sincor) Boyacá TOTAL Statoil PDVSA TOTAL Statoil PDVSA ％ 83.33 ％ 16.67

％ ％ Carabobo

(Cerro Negro) PDVSA 41.67 ％ ExxonMobil 41.67 BP 16.66 BP PDVSA In Feb. 2007, Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez has signed a decree ordering the conversion of existing contracts for extra-heavy oil production to mixed companies, in which the state oil company PDVSA will have at least a 60% stake ％  25 16 32 26 100 hillips ～

Junin 120,000104,000 120,000 105,000 200,000 180,000 200,000 190,000 ％ (Petrozuata) PDVSA 49.9 ％ ConocoP 51.1 PDVSA Wt% 2.5 3.3 0.2 1.2

） Project Name (Original Name) API GravityAPI GravityAPI Sulphur 9.3 19 8.5 8.0 Original Partner shares % shares Partner （ Extra Heavy Oil Heavy Extra Production B/D Synthetic Oil Production B/D Startup % shares Partner 1998 August 1999 November 2000 December 2001 November

2011 January Heavy Oil Upgrading Projects in Venezuela IEEJ: 12 PDVSA ： Source Development of Orinoco Resources 2011 January IEEJ: 13 16,590 15.1 30,000 27.2 December 2008 nce of mining, it e and a danger in the in the e and a danger ercial CBM production CBM Resources at more efficiently. more efficiently. it methane that discovered was CBM ResourcesEconomic Demonstrated Resources PJSub-economic Demonstrated Resources tcf Inferred Resources 122,020Total 111.0 168,610 153.0 rbon dioxide. by regulations and comm by rs could produce coal Geoscience Australia ： Source potential as ca to the atmosphere until when ound if CBM extraction was conducted in adva of the gas, and mine CBM Resources in Australia 2011 January Coal miners were encouraged to capture CBM to encouraged were Coal miners has 20 times the global warming warming global has 20 times the improves the quality has begun. Also, coal miners f Also, coal has begun. past. Therefore, it was vented in s considered as a nuisanc CBM wa s considered rich methane operations, mining In coal IEEJ: 14 ） A$500 Capital Million A$ Million （ Expenditure Tallinga) as at October 2009 Capacity wells from (PJ /Year) significantly in the significantly 44 (includes covering CBM became Geoscience Australia ： Source gas production increasing from 2 % gas production increasing from 2 in % Location Start up Australia has increased improved technology, re improved technology, Dalby, QldDalby, North of Roma, Qld 2007 2009 10 A$119 Roma, QldRoma, QldRoma, Qld 2006 2007 na 2007 7.4 A$52 15 A$100 A$114 of total Australian Company rrow Energy/ rrow A Beach Petroleum/ Australian Pipeline Trust APLNG (Origin/ ConocoPhillips) Queensland Gas Company Queensland Gas Company Queensland Gas Company CBM Projects Recently Completed Project 2011 With higher gas prices, tax incentives and and prices, tax incentives gas With higher attractive economically. Production of CBM attractive economically. in with its share past seven years 2002 to 9 % in 2008. 2002 to 9 % January Darling Downs development Argyle Spring CSM Gully project (phase 4) Tipton West CSM project Berwyndale South CSM IEEJ: 15 Capital cost $A7.7 1 train) (inc $A8 $A35 4 trains) (inc na LNG Capacity LNG (mtpa) 3.5 initially ultimately 10 7.4 initially ultimately 12 7–8 initially, ultimately 14–16 created a 50:50 joint ound Roma, Queensland. LNG)—a joint venture between Targeted start-up joint (50:50) acquisition of talks to buy a 15% stake in a 15% buy talks to APPEA ) to develop Queensland's CBM. Queensland's develop ) to ： BG Group 's Queensland Curtis oA) to sell 1.2 million t/year of sell 1.2 million t/year oA) to ConocoPhillips Source Targeted FID Late 2010Late 2014 2010Late 2014–15 2011 2014 16 2010 2014 tons/year of CBM-LNG from QCLNG of tons/year and and Energy. 16 is proposing Arrow million t/year stralia for 20 years from 2015. from stralia for 20 years n and Surat ar basins 2010) —gained approvals for government declared that it is in declared that Gladstone on Aust ralia's east coast. Origin Energy Location Gladstone Gladstone L completed the A$3.5 billion year Gladstone LNG project (G year ear plant) for 20 years from 2015 20 years for ear plant) TOTA 、 to supply CBM to UK gas major CBM to UK gas major to supply called Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG has signed a heads of agreement (H of agreement a heads signed has PetroChina Total (joined in Sept. Note: FID, Final Investment Decision signed a deal to buy 3.6 million to buy a deal signed and and CBM Projects Planned from its Curtis Project in Au Participants , and , and Santos, BG Group BG Origin, ConocoPhillips Gladstone PetroChinaShell, Gladstone Korea Gas Corp. (Kogas) Shell CNOOC Tokyo Gas Tokyo , Petronas 2011 Australian domestic energy company company Australian domestic energy venture in October 2008 Australia-based coal seam gas company Arrow company coal seam gas Australia-based LNG project at Fisherman's Landing in In Feb. 2010, APLNG agreed In Aug. 2010, LNG (QCLNG) project. 2009, In May project (two-train, 8.5 million t/y In Mar 2010, BG Group LNG to Gladstone LNG project. In October 2010, the 7.2 million t/ Santos In October 2010, development of CBM resources in the Bowe Project Gladstone LNG Gladstone Curtis LNG Australia PacificLNG CS CSG       January IEEJ: 16 , have India and China cal Service to evaluate data on their e’s Coordinator for International Energy ty and climate security around the world. perience and help selected countries conference under the Global Shale Gas nt's initiative, two countries, National Energy Board, Canada Energy National ： attended the conference. The conference aimed to provide Source 2011 Seventeen countries an opportunity to share regulatory ex In August 2010, the US Department of Stat Affairs hosted the first multilateral Initiative to promote global energy securi their shale gas potential and the related government responsibilities. understand As part of the State Departme signed agreements allowing the US Geologi potential shale plays to determine if their rock formations have recoverable gas.    January Shale Gas Resouces in the US and Canada IEEJ: 17 2,116 3,110 34,428 60,644 Total U.S. 5 . Illinois （ 4.5 160 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 19.2 15-30 40-80 ） 112,700 ） Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky Basin Atlas Energy, Atlas Baseline Oil and Gas, EnergyRex , ） ） Chevron ） 60 . 76 20 2.2 132 122 21-67 2,894 2,499 ） 31,100 Michigan Basin Michigan Michigan （ Atlas EnergyAtlas （ Whiting Petroleum, Breitburn Energy Reliance-Atlas Energy Reliance-Atlas ） ） ） 30 . 23 0.7 ） 11.4 249 168 37-67 3,845 6,389 28,500 ExxonMobil （ , Arcoma, Anadarko, Arcoma, BP ） Oklahoma, Texas Oklahoma, （ Basin Ardmore , Devon Corp., Apache EnergyChesapeake （ Continental Resources Continental XTO Oil, Marathon Woodford Shale e, South Texas ） , ） ） ） ） -Gastar Chevron ） 40 . 2 76 262 102 42.5 6 States 1,500 15-60 4,478 ExxonMobil （ Korea 220-2,590 1,830-3,350 180-670 150-610 （ （ 246,000 Eagle Ford Shale, South Texas Marcellus Woodford Antrim New Albany Appalachian BasinAppalachian New York, Pennsylvania, others （ EOG Resources, EXCO Cos., Williams Resources, Resources, Range Energy, Chesapeake Seneca, Atlas Energy （ General Pennsylvania Energy BG-EXCO Resources Mitsui-Anadarko Energy Reliance-Atlas & Oil Reliance-Carrizo Gas Statoil-Chesapeake Resources Shell-East Atinum Sumitomo-REX Energy Niobrara Oil Shale, Niobrara （ 17 . 25 Eagle Ford Shal 717 251 321 20.3 60-90 1,031 （ 23,300 Eagle Ford Shale, South Texas 10,468 Bossier ） Haynesville/ North Louisiana Salt North ExxonMobil) Louisiana, Texas （ Basin Chesapeake Energy, Chesapeake Encana, Energy, Petrohawk EXCO Resources, EOG Resources, Mainland Resources, Ellora Energy （ BG-EXCO Resources BG-EXCO Shell-Encana Eagle Ford Shale, South Texas , ） ） （ 27 . 52 1.5 41.6 Eagle Ford Shale, South Texas 6-60 279 527 3,833 9,070 23,300 （ ExxonMobil , Southwestern （ ） Arkoma Basin Arkoma BP Arkansas, Oklahoma （ Petrohawk Energy, Petrohawk Storm Energy Cat Chesapeake Energy Chesapeake （ Energy, XTO , ） 21 . 44 9.3 327 1 1,501 1,745 30-180 12,950 22,492 26,493 Barnett Fayetteville 300-350 60-220 100-330 60-100 200-300 40-100 ExxonMobil （ 1,980-2,590 300-2,130 3,200-4,120 1, Fort Worth Worth BasinFort ） Texas （ Pioneer Resources, Pioneer ResourcesRAM Chesapeake Energy, Chesapeake Energy, Devon Resources, EOG XTO TOTAL-Chesapeake Energy 2 / 3 Km m m ft TCM tcf TCM tcf 2008 2009 2008 2009 CNOOC-Chesapeake （ Natural Resources Reliance-Pioneer TOTAL-Chesapeake Energy Statoil & Talisman Energy （ Energy Statoil & Talisman BP-Lewis Energy Itochu-MDU Resources Group Foreign Gas Shale Basins in Other Companies Participating       (bcf) (bcf) Estimated Area Basin States Depth Net Thickness Content Gas Original Gas- In- Place Technically Recoverable Resources Reserves Production Companies （Domestic) Companies （Foreign) 2011 January Current Producing and Prospective Gas Shales in the US IEEJ: 18 3) ｍ ( 10,220 14,010 11,210 14,690 Water per well Total Volumes of Volumes Total 3) ｍ ( 8,710 Volume of Volume and/or water-based or oil- Fracturing ” Water per well “ mist Agency (EPA) to conduct a Agency ) 230 *300 * 10,980 14,390 l Government, a one-person 3 d a four-person household 25.1 1,510 3,790 10,220 cess which involves hazardous ｍ ( ant shale gas deposits exist raised Water per well per Water Volume of Drilling of Volume DOE, ModernDOE, in Shale Gas the United Development ： Shale GasPlay Estimated Water Needs for Drilling and Estimated Water Needs Fracturing Wells in Selected Shale Gas Plays Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Fayetteville Haynesville Shale Shale Marcellus * Drilling performed with an air performed * Drilling based muds for deep horizontal well completions. Source April 2009 A Primer, States: ities where signific U.S. Environmental Protection e drinking water supplies. water e drinking the hydraulic fracturing pro the hydraulic e process an impact on dr inking water and the public has onducted by the Tokyo Municipa the Tokyo onducted by m3 of drinking water a month an National Energy Board, Canada Energy National ： environmental concern about chemicals that can contaminat that chemicals In 2009, Congress directed the study to determinestudy whether th health of residents. nearby household consumed 7.7 m3 a month in 2009 According to the survey c According to the survey Some states and municipal author 2011    Source January Shale Gas Production （ Water Fracturing ） IEEJ: 19 Marcellus Fayetteville Eagle Ford Haynesville Woodford Barnett ates for total technically recoverable as of January 1, 2008 at 2,119 Tcf. an estimate of 347 Tcf for unproved inferred reserves, and undiscovered Kendell, October 19, 2010 October 19, Kendell, Woodford Ford Eagle Fayetteville Marcellus Source: DOE/EIA, James M. James Source: DOE/EIA, Production of Shale Gas Barnett Haynesville 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2011 DOE/EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2010 estim This estimate includes proved reserves, natural gas resources in the United States technically recoverable resources. The Annual Energy Outlook 2010 includes technically recoverable shale gas. Proved reserves of natural gas have grown significantly over the past several years, further indicating an expanding resource base. Billion Cubic Feet Billion January     IEEJ: 20 Conventional & Tight Conventional Methane Coalbed Shale Gas 8.5% 13.8% 3,110 1,914 22,537 17,513 ） BCF 9.9% 9.2% （ 2,116 1,966 17,333 21,415 8.6% 6.4% Production 2007 2008 2009 tural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves Gas tural 1,293 1,753 20,318 17,272 and the Barnett and Haynesville/Bossier 0 cent of total net additions U.S. gative revisions to existing (conventional) gative revisions to existing (conventional) 5,000 25,000 BCF 20,000 15,000 10,000 ming from 6 major shale areas. These are Haynesville (Louisiana), the Woodford Haynesville Conventional & Tight Conventional Coalbed Methane Shale Gas 6.5% 21.4% 18,578 60,644 204,657 283,879 U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Na 、 ） 8.2% 13.5% BCF （ DOE/EIA 20,798 34,428 ： 199,809 8.8% 9.4% Source Reserves 2007 2008 2009 21,874 23,304 247,789 255,035 202,611 2011 Natural gas from shale represented 21 % of U.S. gas reserves and 14% of U.S. gas production in 2009, with the majority co the the Fayetteville Shale (Arkansas), (Oklahoma), the Marcellus (Pennsylvania), (Texas). Shale gas accounted for more than 90 per recoverable reserves. The 11 percent increase in U.S. proved natural gas reserves took place during a low-price environment that resulted in ne reserves. 0 January    50,000 300,000 BCF 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Natural Gas Proved Reserves and Production, 2007-2009 IEEJ: 21 5.9% 7.6% 7.8% 8.2% 24.3% 13.5% 32.8% United States, up from 6 % United States, up from 6 in 2008 % 2008 to 23.3 tcf 2035. in Gas Shale Associated Gas (on/ offshore) Associated Conventional Non-Associated Gas Shale Non-Associated Conventional Gas Conventional Non-Associated supplied in the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Outlook Energy Annual 、 54.1% 12.5% DOE/EIA duction grows from 20.6 tcfduction in ： 24 % 24 of the natural gas % Source Net Imports Offshore Non-Associated Coalbed Methane Alaska 1990 1995 2000 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1990-2035 5 0 30 Tcf 25 20 15 10 2011 Total domestic natural gas pro In 2035, shale gas provides January   IEEJ: 22 AEO2010 AEO2010 AEO2009 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2006 1.46 AEO2006 AEO2007 AEO2009 AEO2008 2025 2030 2035 e U.S. reliance on imported natural gas tal U.S. natural gas supply, down from Annual Energy Outlook Outlook Energy Annual 、 DOE/EIA DOE/EIA ： Source 2.95 U.S. Natural Gas Imports Production Net Imports 2005 2010 2015 2020 5 0 25 20 15 10 Tcf 2011 A few years ago, significant increase of th was forecasted and investments were being made in re-gasification facilities for imports of (LNG). In 2035, net imports make up 5.9 % of to 12.5% in 2008 January   IEEJ: 23 ） Frontier Shale Coalbed Methane Tight Associated Non Solution 446.6 183.4 120.3 179.0 152.8 421.6 2009 、 401.1 138.1 192.4 Cordova Embayment Shale Gas, British Columbia Shale Gas, British Embayment Cordova （ ） 140.8 248.3 460.7 National Energy Board Energy National ： 130.1 289.1 482.2 Source British Columbia （ Canada Natural Gas Supply /D 3 81.8 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 330.3 473.4 0 2011 600 500 400 300 200 100 Milllion m KOGAS-EnCana Trust Mitsubishi-Penn West Energy Foreign Companies Participating in Gas Shale Projects   January IEEJ: 24 USA JAPAN Japan and these the form of lower LNG import ntials between EU Natural Gas Information Natural 、 IEA ： Source onomic crisis after 2008 came in opean countries. Price differe NYMEX NYMEX -1 US Import LNG EU Import LNG Japan Import LNG 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

8 6 4 2 0

16 14 12 10 US$/MMBtu 2011 LNG Prices in the US, EU, Japan Import prices in the U.S. and Eur The impact of the global ec countries are expanding in these years. years. in these are expanding countries January IEEJ: 25 Import Price

LNG at relatively high level, japan’s LNG Energy Databank Energy 、 Crude Oil Import Price EDMC ： Source Import Price

Crude Oil Import Price LNG LNG Import Prices in Japan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

/1000Kcal 10 US ￠ 2011 To date, Japanese LNG importers have to use oil-indexed pricing based on the (JCC) oil basket price. Because the crude oil prices are hovering import prices are also kept higher than foreign importers. January   IEEJ: 26 in ） NBP （ 4,339 5,092 5,988 8,011 12,457 12,570 12,746 66,354 54,157 and Alberta, the U.S. companies om Sakhalin Island in 2009. Canadian linked cost of LNG is too expensive and pot traded LNG prices and an element of 輸入量の推移 where the shale gas boom intensifies ract pricing formula with suppliers. export their unconventional gas as LNG. om the National Balancing Point 36,077 LNG 16,965 Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan 2011 (Draft) 2011 Japan in Statistics Economic & of Energy Handbook 、 日本の Others Russia Guinea Equatrial Nigeria Oman UAE Brunei Qatar Australia Malaysia Indonesia USA EDMC ： 182 1969 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 09 - ×1000 Ton 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source 2011 West Coast states such as British Columbia are also investigating opportunity to Japan has begun importing Russian LNG fr the United Kingdom. Japan’s LNG importers states that the oil- Their idea include a partial linkage to s are seeking to re-negotiate their cont Hub in the U.S. pricing from the Henry downward pressure on prices, and fr January    IEEJ: 27 value and high ） ange the natural gas y challenges, water tra-heavy Oil can make liquid . hose countries where coal Total Acid Number （ nd and likely to ch draulic fracturing. An effort to eliminate fuel option and its contribution to ensuring to play an important role in shaping North il are characterised their by extremely high concerns, technolog M producers with their abundant coal basins, astructure. The technology and experience e long-term flow of are concerned about possible threats to local transportation, and refining than conventional rable emissions relative to oil and coal acturing water, chemicals in the fracture fluid will be Conclusions xygen, sulphur, and heavy metals. the developing countries. can be readily applied to t 2011 availability, and land issues. In particular, regulators and policy makers water supplies and public health as a result of hy and recycling of fr toxic chemicals necessary. Abundant supply and favo should help to attract favorable regulation. viscosity, high density (low API gravity), high TAN Oil Sand (Natural bitumen) and Extra-heavy O an important contribution to provide a reliabl resources are abundant such as Indonesia, China, and India. The generation of emissions reduction credits c an provide potential for CDM projects and act as an economic driver in markets and pricing mechanism significantly. Shale Gas is also important as a lower-carbon energy security and economic development. However, there are many underlying uncertainties including growing environmental concentrations of nitrogen, o oil. However, large in-place resource volu mes of Oil Sand and Ex These result in higher costs for extraction, The US and Australia are currently major CB The potential volumes of Shale Gas are though t to be enormous and long-term growth in Shale Gas production in the world is expected thick coal seams and existence of dense infr acquired in these countries American, European and Asian natural gas dema January        IEEJ: 28 Contact: [email protected] time your 谢谢 Thank you for 2011 January IEEJ:

Top View