CHAPTER 1 FROM CRISIS TO CONFIDENCE 1.1.0 The Setting 1.1.1 The first report of the NCF was presented to the Government in December 2004. We are indebted to the Government of India as well as to several State Governments for taking prompt action on some of our recommendations. The Union Planning Commission has made an in-depth appraisal of the progress made in agriculture and allied sectors as part of the Mid-term appraisal of Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007). The findings were discussed at the 51st meeting of the National Development Council (NDC) on 27-28 June, 2005. It will be appropriate to begin this second report of NCF with a few quotations from the points made by the Prime Minister, the Union Minister for Agriculture and the Deputy Chairman of the Union Planning Commission at the NDC meeting. 1.2.0 Points made at the NDC meeting Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister: 1.2.1 “A particularly disturbing aspect of our performance over the past several years is that agricultural growth has decelerated after the mid-1990’s. Agriculture had grown at 3.2% from 1980 to 1996. It decelerated to 2.1% during the Ninth Plan. The cornerstone of the Tenth Plan strategy was a reversal of the declining trend in the growth rate of agriculture and with a target for agricultural growth at 4%. Unfortunately, actual performance of agriculture appears to have deteriorated even further and will possibly not exceed 1.5% during the first 3 years of the Plan…… Correcting this must be accorded the highest priority…….. We must have the ambition to double our agricultural production in ten years.” 1.2.2 Shri. Sharad Pawar, Union Minister of Agriculture, Food & Civil Supplies, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution: “The tragic incidents of farmers’ suicides in some of the States have been a matter of serious concern…… crop losses, consecutive failure of monsoon, recurrent 1 droughts, mounting debts, monocropping, land tenancy, etc., seem to be some of the main causes…… 76% of the victims were dependant on rainfed agriculture and 78% were small and marginal farmers……. 76% and 82% of the victim households had borrowed from non-institutional sources in 2000-01 and 2002-03 respectively. The interest rates charged on such debts ranged from 24 to 36%, as compared to 9-12% on institutional credit.” 1.2.3 “The livestock sector is extremely important for providing supplemental income to the farmers. Studies have shown that farmers’ suicide is practically non-existent in areas where the farmers have opportunity to earn income by activities like dairying…… But the fact remains that our cattle productivity is one of the lowest in the world.” 1.2.4 “Agriculture sector is covered in the State List of the Seventh Schedule to the Constitution. Hence, it is the primary responsibility of the State Governments to develop and promote agriculture and increase its production and productivity….. The share of agriculture and allied activities in the total allocation of all State/ UTs taken together is a meagre 6.46% for the Tenth Five Year Plan and 5.62% for the Annual Plan of 2003-04.” 1.2.5 Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission: “Agricultural growth has decelerated from 3.2% in the period 1980-81 to 1995-96 to an average of below 2% subsequently….. Employment generation in the economy is not upto expectations. Organised sector employment has fallen in absolute terms in the last three years…… The situation regarding groundwater use is also very disturbing. There is excessive drawal of groundwater leading to an alarming lowering of the water table in many areas….. Rainfed areas account for two-thirds of the cultivable area at present and it is necessary to develop a coherent strategy for water conservation and management for these areas.” 1.2.6 Thus, our agriculture is in a state of crisis. The rate of growth in food production has fallen below population growth rate. To achieve a 4% growth rate in agriculture, we must aim at a 8% growth rate in horticulture and animal husbandry. How are we going to achieve these goals? This calls for a higher investment in irrigation, animal husbandry, fisheries, post-harvest technology, rural energy supply and communication. The investment in agriculture has stagnated at 1.3% of GNP during the last three Five Year Plans. 2 1.3.0 The Agrarian Crisis: Remedies 1.3.1 The Prime Minister and Minister for Agriculture and Food have both suggested several measures to overcome the agrarian crisis. The Prime Minister has emphasized the need for increasing investments in the entire chain of activities related to agriculture and for promoting water efficient technologies. He has called for a sharper focus on strategic research and extension for overcoming the current technology fatigue. 1.3.2 The Agriculture and Food Minister has advocated a greater focus on the development of marketing infrastructure and the introduction of marketing laws conducive to direct marketing and contract farming. He has also pleaded for making the National Horticulture Mission which has a Plan outlay of Rs. 2300 crores during the remaining part of the Tenth Plan period, a success. 1.3.3 The agricultural crisis should be viewed not just in terms of growth rates. If we place faces behind figures, over 400 million children, women and men belonging to families with small and marginal holdings, as well as landless labour families, are in deep distress. This explains why we are off-track in achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals in the areas of reducing poverty induced hunger or under-nutrition, infant and maternal mortality rates and control of major diseases (Table - 1). According to a survey carried out by NSSO, on behalf of the Ministry of Agriculture, 40% of the 51,770 farm households surveyed said that they would quit agriculture, given a chance. No wonder, the mass media have started focusing attention on hunger and farmers’ distress hotspots. For example, the July 4, 2005 issue of a national magazine (Outlook) contains a cover page article on “The death of the Indian Farmer”, to highlight the fact that “trapped in a vicous cycle of crop failure, high debt and penury, the Indian farmers’ future is an endless night.” 3 TABLE - 1 Progress towards achieving the MDGs in India Indicator Year Value On track MDG target Status Value value Proportion of 1999-2000 26.1 30 18.75 On track population below poverty line (%) Undernourished people 1999-2000 53 49.8 31.1 Off track as % of total population Proportion of under- 1998 47 46.1 27.4 Off track nourished children Literacy rate of 15-24 2001 73.3 N.A. None N.A years old Ratio of girls to boys 2000 0.77 0.83 1 Off track in primary education Ratio of girls to boys 2001 0.68 0.79 1 Off track in secondary education Under five mortality 2001 93 87 41 Off track rate (per 1000 live births) Infant mortality rate 2001 66 56.7 27 Off track (per 1000 live births) Maternal mortality 1998 407 332 129 Off track ratio (per 100,000 live births) Population with 2000 79 69 80.5 On track sustainable access to an improved water source, rural (%) Population with 2000 95 90 94 On track sustainable access to an improved water source, urban (%) Population with access 2000 61 55 72 On track to sanitation urban (%) Population with access 2001 21.91 39.3 72 Off track to sanitation rural (%) Source: Mid-term Appraisal of Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007), GoI, Planning Commission, June 2005 1.4.0 From Crisis to Confidence 1.4.1 How can we once again generate confidence in our agricultural capability? How can we convert despair into hope in farmers’ homes? Several solutions had been 4 offered in our first report and it may be appropriate to reiterate their importance and urgency, since they are yet to be implemented. We cannot afford to relax in the field of agriculture, since apart from its deep human and livelihood implications, agricultural decline will erode national sovereignty in the area of foreign policy. Accelerated agricultural progress will confer multiple benefits – nutritional, economic, ecological, social and political. 1.4.2 Under WTO regulations, extending essential and life-saving services to resource poor farmers will not be considered trade distorting. The following steps, recommended in our first report, need to be implemented without further delay: i) Water for Agriculture: Implement a Million Wells Recharge programme, make water harvesting mandatory and restore water bodies. ii) Soil Health Enhancement: Establish a Network of advanced soil testing laboratories capable of testing large numbers of soil samples for 16 macro and micronutrients and issue a Soil Health Card to every farm family. Remove the hidden hunger of soils by providing the necessary micro-nutrients. Micro-nutrient deficiencies are widespread in all our soil types and as a single step, the amelioration of soil hunger makes the largest contribution to productivity improvement. iii) Bridging the widening gap between scientific know-how and field level do-how: Establish without any further delay about 50,000 Farm Schools for the purpose of farmer-to-farmer learning. The Farm Schools should be established in the fields of farmer achievers who are actually enhancing productivity and profitability in their farms through scientific and sustainable agriculture. Priority may be given in the areas of horticulture, crop-livestock, mixed farming, organic farming, agro- forestry and aquaculture for establishing Farm Schools. The establishment of such Farm Schools will add the dimension of engagement with farm families, to extension.