Climate Change
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PLAN ON NI TI NG A T G P U I A D D E A CLIMATE CHANGE C A © AIRFOXPHOTOGRAPHYLLC H E E R Q A UA Y MEGON BA SPRING 2019 AUTHORS Robin Kemkes Meghan Salmon-Tumas Faculty Research Associate Faculty Research Associate Center for Rural Communities Center for Rural Communities Robin Kemkes is an ecological economist whose Meghan Salmon-Tumas is a geographer specializing in work focuses on livelihoods and well-being in rural large-scale observation of human-environment interactions. places. For this report, she collected community input For this report, she evaluated climate change impacts in the across the Chequamegon Bay Area on quality of Chequamegon Bay Area, determined the current scientific life impacts, household preparedness, and planning confidence in these impacts, and intersected these impacts priorities, and she incorporated existing information on with the topics and goals of the area's comprehensive populations of concern. She also helped identified the planning documents. She also contributed ideas and editing Priority Areas for Coordinated Action and put forward to the Priority Areas for Coordinated Action. implementation goals and supporting resources. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was developed by the Center for Rural Communities (CRC) at Northland College. Funding was provided by Wisconsin Sea Grant. We would like to thank our colleagues at the Mary Griggs Burke Center for Freshwater Innovation at Northland College, the Lake Superior National Estuarine Research Reserve, and the Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission for valuable input and feedback. Thank you to the community members and stakeholders who participated in the mail survey and interviews for the Chequamegon Bay Area community study. We also acknowledge the work of the student research assistants at the Northland College Center for Rural Communities who entered survey data and transcribed interviews. PREPARED BY FUNDED BY Report design and layout by Jill O'Neill, Director of Digital Marketing at Northland College TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................ 1 Planning Topics ..................................................................... 46 Housing ..................................................................................47 Introduction ............................................................................... 2 Flooding Damages ........................................................... 47 Who should use this guide .............................................. 3 Fouling of Wells .................................................................48 Waterfront Home Vulnerabilities .............................49 How to navigate this guide ............................................. 4 Cooling Needs ....................................................................50 Climate Change in the Chequamegon Bay Area ......6 Transportation ....................................................................52 Damage to Roadways ..................................................... 52 Climate Change Projections ........................................... 6 Reduced Ice Cover ...........................................................54 Community Input ............................................................... 13 Lake Depth Changes ...................................................... 55 Quality of Life Impacts from Vehicle Emissions ............................................................. 55 Climate Change Hazards ............................................ 14 Highly Valued Features of Place .............................. 14 Utilities and Community Facilities .............................56 Community Planning Priorities ................................ 16 Increased Runoff & Flooding Damages ................ 56 Drinking Water Stresses ................................................57 Vulnerable Populations ....................................................17 Stresses to Human Health ...........................................58 Populations of Concern ...............................................17 Increased Emergency Response Demands ......... 59 Household Preparedness ...........................................20 Agricultural, Natural, & Cultural Resources .........60 Priority Areas for Coordinated Action ..................... 23 Natural Ecosystems ........................................................ 60 Livestock & Crops (Food/Forage) ...........................64 Protect Drinking Water Quality ................................. 26 Recreation ............................................................................66 Prevent Washouts & Mitigate Economic Development ................................................ 68 Flood Hazards .....................................................................32 Affected Industries ...........................................................68 Prepare for Variable Recreation Development Opportunities .......................................69 & Tourism Conditions .....................................................40 Land Use .................................................................................71 Wetland Changes ............................................................71 Floodplain Changes ......................................................72 Green Infrastructure .....................................................73 Waterfront & Coastal Resources ..............................74 Stresses to Beaches/Waterfront Access .............74 Shoreline Changes.........................................................76 An Adaptive Planning Guide for: Ports, Harbors, & Marinas ...........................................76 Coastal Wetlands ...........................................................77 • City/county/tribal staff, planning commissions, and councils Implementation of Adaptation ......................................78 • Developers and businesses Appendix A ..............................................................................80 • Property owners and residents Temperature .......................................................................80 • Natural resource managers Precipitation ....................................................................... 82 Combined Effects ............................................................. 83 Lake Superior Water Level ............................................83 Algal Blooms ................................................................... 84 iii INTRODUCTION It's estimated that over 70 percent of adults in Bayfield and Ashland counties believe that global warming is happening.* * Howe, Peter D., Matto Mildenberger, Jennifer R. Marlon, and Anthony Leiserowitz (2015). “Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA.” Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2583 iv INTRODUCTION Executive Summary B PRIORITY AREAS Priority Areas for Coordinated Action KEY FINDINGS highlights three potential climate change adaptation arenas of particular concern to The effects of climate change can already be the CBA: observed and experienced in the Chequamegon Bay Area (CBA), and further changes are • Protect Drinking Water Quality expected to impact across all municipal, • Prevent Washouts and Mitigate Flood county, and tribal planning and development Hazards topics. Adaptation work is underway in many regards, ranging from addressing undersized • Prepare for Variable Recreation and infrastructure to assessing the vulnerability Tourism Conditions of north woods species. The purpose of this These priority areas were selected based on guide is to focus attention on priority areas the following criteria: for adaptation, which span multiple planning topics and will therefore require collaboration and cooperation amongst planners and across CRITERIA SYMBOL communities. It also serves as a resource for current climate change science and ✔ High confidence of climate potential impacts to valued community assets change effects and vulnerable populations specific to the Highly valued CBA community Chequamegon Bay Area. The findings and ✔ asset may be affected recommendations offered herein are meant to be One or more vulnerable starting points for discussion toward coordinated ✔ populations may be affected implementation of climate change adaptation. Adaptation can be incorporated into individual ✔ Community priority planning plans, and collaboration will help align resources topics are involved and efforts across planning topics, organizations, Non-climate stressors could and jurisdictions. ✔ exacerbate impacts The guide is broken down into the following four Vulnerability of assets to be sections. determined by communities A CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change in the Chequamegon Bay Area describes climate change trends C PLANNING TOPICS and projections, CBA community values and priorities, vulnerable populations, Planning Topics provides a description of and household preparedness. The high projected climate change effects relevant to confidence projected climate change effects common objectives for planning topics. in the Chequamegon Bay Area are: • Rising annual average air temperatures • More heavy rain events • Warmer water in Lake Superior D IMPLEMENTATION • Less ice cover Implementation of Adaptation offers • More microbial activity recommendations for how to move forward under uncertainty. 1 INTRODUCTION Introduction The Center for Rural Communities at Northland both counties. College has prepared this guide to help municipal,