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Indonesian Banks and Multifinance Companies Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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Indonesian Banks and Multifinance Companies Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report Industry Focus Indonesian Banks and Multifinance Companies Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 9 Jan 2015 Size does matter JCI : 5,207.12 Big banks to perform better in a tough environment Analyst LIM Sue Lin +65 6682 3711 Another challenging year [email protected] Growth to remain muted Christopher Daniel Wijaya +62 21 3003 4935 BMRI is our new top pick [email protected] OJK is likely to Indonesian banks coverage Big banks to stay in the limelight. Performance (%) target slow loan growth in 2015, leading us to expect Price Mkt Cap Target deposit growth to outpace loan growth, which would Rp US$m Price Rp 3 mth 12 mth Rating ease liquidity conditions. Bigger banks with a stronger Bank Central Asia 13,125 25,520 12,500 5.0 40.4 HOLD deposit franchise will have a competitive edge and be Bank Mandiri 10,850 19,966 12,200 14.2 41.8 BUY able to defend NIM. OJK and BI’s stance to promote Bank Tabungan Negara 1,205 1,004 940 11.1 42.6 FV branchless banking will support transaction banking for Bank Rakyat Indonesia 11,775 22,908 12,600 16.6 67.6 HOLD larger banks. Smaller banks may continue to face Bank Negara Indonesia 6,075 8,935 6,400 15.2 65.1 HOLD funding cost pressure and sporadic asset quality issues. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan 3,990 1,838 4,600 (10.3 (9.3) HOLD Panin Bank 1,070 2,033 1,230 10.9 74.0 HOLD Growth to remain muted. We forecast 15.5% loan growth in 2015 (2014: 15.1%) and loan-to-deposit ratio Indonesian multifinance coverage will ease to 86% level for banks within our coverage BFI Finance Ind 2,400 293 3,100 14.3 (1.6) BUY (industry: 88%). Asset quality may experience a Clipan Finance 430 135 490 (2.1) 6.2 HOLD temporary deterioration, particularly SME loans in the trade industry. Banks will likely continue to book high Source: DBS Bank, DBS Vickers provisions. We are expecting NIM to stay flat in 2015. We trimmed FY15F sector earnings by 3.5%. All in, we Indonesian Banks: Earnings growth trends forecast 15% earnings growth for 2015 (2014:9.5%). Multifinance companies are expected to register c.10% 120% 42.6% 45% 100% 40% earnings growth in 2015 (2014: 13%). 33.3% 80% 35% The fuel subsidy cut is a 27.5% 30% Another challenging year. 60% positive sign of sustainable long-term growth, albeit it 20.9% 25% 40% 18.9% will hurt the economy in the near-term. In response, the 17.8% 20% 20% 15.0% 15% central bank raised the BI rate by 25bps to 7.75% in 9.5% Nov 14, which may pressure banks’ funding costs and 0% 10% ‐20% consequently, earnings growth. A Fed rate hike could 5% ‐40% 0% also push up the BI rate, over and above inflationary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F pressure. Bigger banks would be in a better position to BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI BBTN withstand these headwinds. The Indonesian Banks BTPN PNBN BDMN Average masterplan which might be released soon will discuss Source: DBS Bank; DBS Vickers matters such as consolidation and reciprocal agreements with neighbouring countries. Indonesian Banks: loan growth trends It would be wiser to stick to Top pick for 2015: BMRI. 60% 30% the resilient big banks as investment options for 2015 50% 25% 23.8% because they should perform better in an anticipated 22.6% 23.5% 21.2% 40% 20% tough operating environment. We switch our top pick to 17.8% BMRI (from BBRI) for 2015. BMRI had lagged its large 30% 15.1% 15.5% 15% cap peers in 2014. The key catalysts would be 20% 10% recovering NPLs at its Syariah unit and accelerated 10% 5% mortgage growth. BBRI is downgraded to a HOLD due 0% 0% to the risk of deteriorating quality in its special 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F BBCA BMRI BBRI mentioned loans. Smaller banks such as BBTN and PNBN BBNI BBTN BTPN may still be hot for M&A news. PNBN BDMN Industry loan growth Average loan growth Source: DBS Bank; DBS Vickers www.dbsvickers.com ed-SGC / sa- MA Industry Focus Indonesian Banks and Multifinance Companies Indonesian banks: Going into another challenging year Recent developments on fuel subsidy. As of 1 January 2015, Fuel subsidy cut and BI rate hike. The Indonesian government the Indonesian government has cut fuel prices to Rp7,600/liter raised the price of subsidised fuel by Rp2,000/liter effective 18 from the previous Rp8,500/liter in November. The most Nov 2014. The increment was within our and consensus’ important news announced is the decision on the fuel subsidy expectations. However, the recent drop in the oil price to policy for 2015. The government will continue to subsidise below USD85 per barrel has prompted the government to re- diesel and kerosene but gasoline will no longer be subsidized. think the magnitude of the cut, which was at the low end of Instead, the government will only cover the distribution cost consensus estimates of Rp2,000-Rp3,000. In our previous for gasoline outside of Java and Bali, which means that prices report “Indonesian Banks: A matter of time” dated 20 can fluctuate depending on oil prices, currency movements October 2014, we highlighted that the impact of an increase and local tax. The government also plans to further reduce the in the price of subsidised fuel of this magnitude on CPI fuel price at the end of this month due to global oil prices inflation is likely to be manageable. However, Bank Indonesia falling below $48. This brings an end to the fuel subsidy (BI) took a cautious stance by raising reference rates by 25bps overhang and the politics which goes along with it. Indonesia to 7.75%, mainly to safeguard against the ripple effects of is just one step away from completely removing fuel subsidies inflationary pressures. There is little indication of further rates altogether. hikes and DBSV economist forecasts the BI rate will be stable until 3Q15. The willingness to cut fuel subsidies is a positive BI rate, lending facility rate and FASBI rate signal for sustainable long term growth, albeit it will hurt the 14% economy in the near term. Generally, banks’ earnings growth 12% tend to decline when fuel subsidies are cut (or fuel price rises), 10% because there is a strong correlation between fuel price hikes 8% and a rise in BI rates, and a slowdown in the overall economy. 6% Subsidised fuel price, inflation and BI rate 4% 2% 9,000 20.0% 8,000 18.0% 0% 08 09 10 11 12 13 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 16.0% 14 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 7,000 ‐ Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 14.0% Jul Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 6,000 Nov Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 12.0% Mar 5,000 10.0% BI Rate Lending facility rate FASBI rate 4,000 8.0% 3,000 6.0% Source: DBS Bank , DBS Vickers, Bank Indonesia 2,000 4.0% 1,000 2.0% ‐ 0.0% Fuel subsidy elimination will rein in banking sector growth. 03 03 05 05 07 07 09 09 11 11 13 13 04 06 08 10 12 14 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Loan and deposit growth are historically affected by the fuel Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep May May May May May May subsidy cut, due to a slowdown in overall consumption and Susidized fuel price Inflation y‐o‐y BI Rate economy. However, the recent drop in oil prices may soften Source: DBS Bank; DBS Vickers, BI the impact of fuel price increases in the economy. The subsequent 25bps increment in the BI rate would also slow GDP growth. However, BI remains optimistic and believes the BI also raised lending facility rate, but FASBI is stable. The slowdown would be temporary. BI is confident of achieving central bank also raised its lending facility rate by 50bps to 5.4-5.8% GDP growth in 2015. Meanwhile, DBSV economist 8%, while the deposit facility rate is kept at 5.75%. By doing maintains GDP growth forecast at 5.0% for 2014 and 5.5% this, BI is not pushing to absorb more liquidity from the for 2015, the lower end of BI’s estimates. Loan growth is financial system, while at the same time, it safeguards against generally more sensitive to hikes in the fuel price and BI rate the risk of excessive money supply growth. than deposits because of strong growth in the past. Going forward, as liquidity tightens compared to previous years, loan and deposit growth will be more in line. Page 2 Fed rate,BIrateandGDPgrowth BI rate. correlation (80%, R-squaredof 64%)withanincrease inthe 0.5% in4Q15. Historically, theFed ratehikehadstrong Our economist forecast Fed ratestoincrease by 25bpsto predicts thatthe Fedratewillincreaseto1.375% thisyear. economy. Former Indonesia’s Finance Minister ChatibBasri the back ofastrengtheninglikely toraiseratesthisyearon US The Fed hasended itsquantitative easing program, andis increase inthe BI rateoverandaboveinflationarypressures. Strong possibility Fed will hike rate. growth deposit and pricevsloan fuel Subsidised Source: DBS Bank; DBSVickers, Bank Indonesia Source: DBS Bank; DBS Vicker 10% 12% 14% 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% ‐ Jul‐05 Jan‐03 Jan‐06 Sep‐03 Jul‐06 Susidized May‐04 Jan‐07 Jan‐05 Jul‐07 fuel BI Sep‐05 Rate Jan‐08 price Jul‐08 May‐06 Jan‐07 s, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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