CITY OF VANCOUVER Downtown Grocery Evaluation
PREPARED BY LELAND CONSULTING GROUP
APRIL 2016 1 “Let There be Ralphs”
“Let There be Ralphs” South Park/Downtown LA
2 DOWNTOWN HOUSTON SURVEY: • “Residents and workers consider a grocery store to be the missing element of downtown.”
• Grocery shopping listed as the second most popular leisure activity, after listening to live music for residents over 40.
3 Heath-Related Community Characteristics
“America in 2015,” Urban Land Institute.
4 Museum Place - Safeway
5 Brewery Blocks - Whole Foods
6 Belmont Dairy - Zupans
7 • Fresh & Easy
Small Format Grocers • 13,000 sf (3,000 in UK)
• 100+ stores open in CA, AZ, NV
• Tesco, World’s fourth largest retailer
• Emphasis on gourmet, grab-and-go
• ½ to 1 mile trade area
• The Market, Safeway
• Marketside, Wal-Mart (!)
• Changes
• 46,000 items to 3,000
• Prepared, fresh foods, heat and serve
• Flowers, wine
8 The Urban Small Format Grocery: Size
7-11 Green Zebra New Seasons Safeway 2,600 sf Albertson’s 8,000 sf 25,000 sf 55,000 sf Plaid Pantry 3,300 sf Trader Joe’s Natural Grocer
15,000 sf Sprouts Metropolitan Market Whole Foods (smaller)
30,000 sf Downtown Grocery Challenges • Demonstrating market potential • Making the economics work • Site sizes and siting issues • Accommodating parking • Fitting into a smaller scale streetscape • Designing pedestrian-oriented signs • Controlling trash • Minimizing disruption • Protecting local businesses • Zoning for mixed uses
Better Models for Urban Supermarkets, National Trust for Historic Preservation, 2005.
11 Rooftops & Offices
12 Downtown Vancouver Demographics
1-mi 2-mi 3-mi Metro Region Vancouver- Portland Population (2015) 7,617 32,149 57,560
Households (2015) 3,704 14,756 24,021
Annual HH Growth Rate (2000- 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 15)
Median Household Income $32,811 $37,337 $38,896 $59,764 Median Income as Pct. Of 55% 62% 65% Portland Metro Pct. With Bachelor’s Degree 27% 24% 25% 22%
13 Leakage Analysis Trade Area Grocery Supply andsupply Householddemand Demand $150.0 $124.2 $112.0 $100.0 $93.7 $53.0
in Millionsin $50.0 $3.5 $12.6 $0.0 1-mi 2-mi 3-mi Demand From Daytime Office Worker
Est.Spending Count of Office Workers 8,046
Weekly Grocery/drug Spending per Office Worker $23
Weeks per year 52
Annual Spending $1,209 per Office Worker With approximately 2.2 Total Office Worker Grocery Support $12,207,438 million current square Est. sales/sf/yr (grocery average) $500 feet of office, this walking Est. Office-Supported Grocery Space 24,415 vicinity supports about 1 square foot of grocery store space for each 90 square feet of office space Grocery Site Comparisons
Population and Median Incomes- Downtown vs. Existing Store Sites $80,000
TJ $70,000
$60,000 NS
NS 1-mile $50,000 radius TJ median $40,000 NG incomes NG
$30,000 Downtown Vancouver (2015) $20,000
$10,000
$0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1-mile radius population
Downtown Vancouver compared to nearest Natural Grocers, Trader Joe’s & New Seasons locations
16 Grocery Site Comparisons
Population and Median Incomes- Subject vs. Existing Store Sites $80,000
TJ $70,000
$60,000 NS
NS 1-mile $50,000 radius TJ median $40,000 NG incomes NG
$30,000 Downtown Vancouver $20,000
$10,000
$0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1-mile radius population
Downtown Vancouver compared to nearest Natural Grocers, Trader Joe’s & New Seasons locations
17 Natural Grocer (Vitamin Metropolitan Market New Seasons Market Whole Foods 365 Green Zebra Whole Foods Market Trader Joe's PCC Natural Markets The Markets Sprouts Farmers Markets Cottage) (Food Markets NW)
Headquarters Portland Austin, TX Portland Austin, TX Denver, CO Monrovia, CA Seattle, WA Seattle, WA Bellingham, WA Phoenix, AZ
"ultimate neighborhood lower-priced natural foods smaller market, emphasis grocery" mission; concept from Whole newer independent on store brands, some fresh local organic grocer grocery chain with natural natural foods market with small format natural grocer organic co-op grocer; "progressive independent emphasis on regional, Foods aimed to compete Portland local market, natural/ organic offering, (ownership also has non- + affordable positioning -- Description higher prices, groceries with strong health-food & sustainable, local, fair grocer" with large catering friendly, natural, directly with Trader Joe's; natural/organic, affordable affordable, wine/spirits; organic, value-based emphasis on produce, and prepared foods vitamin focus trade, etc. operation sustainable; generally targeting "hipster" focus targets "overeducated and stores) bulk & vitamins higher pricing than TJs locations for early rollout underpaid"
primarily western U.S. Portland, Portland, Belleview, Santa nearly national (heavy WA (Seattle, Tacoma, Bellingham, WA (for Areas of Operation Portland national western U.S. (esp. CO) Seattle-area only (but not currently OR, Seattle Monica, L.A., Houston west coast) Kirkland, Sammamish) natural format) WA)
16 (2 in smaller/ natural Number of Stores, Total 19 5 (announced) 2 424 99 430 11 7 212 format)
4 (with 3 under Stores in Metro Portland 18 1 (announced) 2 8 8 0 0 0 0 construction)
Planned OR/WA expansion? yes likely likely likely yes yes yes (WA) yes (WA) yes (WA) not currently
Expansion stores in 2016 10 25 20 1 1 1 15
Minimum store size 25,000 25,000 5,500 30,000 5,000 8,000 20,000 30,000 14,000 27,000 Typical store size 25,000 30,000 8,200 45,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 30,000 Seeking urban locations yes yes yes yes will consider not preferred yes
120K pop (per ??), 50K Desired market density n/a n/a n/a 130K within 3 mi. 90K within 5 mi n/a n/a n/a traffic
mid (targeting hipster Household Income targets mid to high high (and college educ.) high havens) 18 Downtown Vancouver Site Characteristics Site Strength Notes 5-very strong 1-poor
Household Density 3 Somewhat constrained by river & airport area, but consistent with tenant minimum criteria Household Growth Rate 4 Especially for 1-mi primary trade area
Household Incomes 2 3-mi incomes are on par with Metro; 1-mi incomes are lower (but appear to be rising)
Office Employment 4 8,000+ employees
Existing Leakage 3 Especially for 1-mi primary trade area Parking 2 Cost of structured parking will be a challenge.
Access and Visibility 4 Varies depending on location
Traffic Volumes 3 Varies depending on location
Pedestrian Environment 5 Highly walkable. Surrounding Land Uses 3 Up & coming district, including mid-rise residential, quality ground-floor neighborhood retail & dining; office population is strong; park is major amenity
Future Potential and 4 Projected Growth “If you want to seed a place with activity, put out food.”
Source: William Whyte. 20
22 Tenant Comparisons