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Review 2014 - Outlook 2015 DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET Review 2014 - Outlook 2015 www.valustrat.com Dubai Real Estate Market Review 2014 - A Year of Two Halves The Dubai real estate market of 2014 was nesses being setup in addition to enlargement Furthermore, speculative investment in a much as 50%, was of concern to some inves- shaped by events from before the year had by existing firms. Major retail malls continued buoyant off plan market was curbed with some tors. According to industry experts, the UAE’s even started - namely the doubling of property to witness increased footfall resulting in many developers imposing self-regulations by not al- economy is broadly diversified and the non-oil registration fees at the Dubai Land Department, expansion projects being announced. The hotel lowing investors to sell on, ‘flip’, a property until sectors play a large role in GDP, the country also introduction of lower Loan To Value (LTV) ratios and tourism markets also grew on the back of they had paid 40 to 50 per cent of the property has sizable petroleum reserves, nevertheless by the UAE Central Bank, and the announce- continued confidence – Further encouraged value. Cityscape 2014 witnessed record par- many real estate investors became more cau- ment of Dubai’s win to host Expo 2020. Prior to by new incentives for developers of three and ticipation and attendances when compared tious with a focus on longer term investments. this, from H2 2012, Dubai’s real estate market four-star hotels that included waiving of Dubai to earlier years, new off-plan projects were 2014 closed with a calmer real estate market, had broadly been recovering from its collapse Municipality’s one percent zoning fee, in addi- launched, mega residential, entertainment and possibly saving itself from potential overheat- in 2008/2009 when property prices fell by up to tion to a two-year waiver on municipal fees if retail projects announced, with many previously ing - Particularly in the residential market 60% from its previous peak. the new hotel is opened before 2017. on-hold projects being restarted. where some areas started to witness sales price corrections. In comparison, residential rentals 2014 started with resurgent confidence follow- However, by the third quarter of 2014 the real As an oil producing country, the record level of seemed to continue to rise resulting in higher ing Dubai’s win to host the third largest inter- estate market seemed to be slowing down. oil price decline in the fourth quarter, down as yields being achieved by investors. national event after the FIFA World Cup and the Whilst this deceleration was partly attributed Olympic Games. This positive sentiment from to the desired effects of the mortgage cap LTV • 2014 started with a huge boost in market • Record participation at Cityscape 2014 investors and developers alike grew in the first restrictions and the doubling of DLD fees begin- confidence after the Expo 2020 win • Oil prices fall to record lows during H2 few months resulting in record appetite for ning to show their results, it was mainly due to • Residential property prices saw double • Dubai’s maturing market continued to investments in real estate and announcements a cooling off in the positive sentiment that im- digit growth during H1 hold a safe haven status as a preferred of mega projects. The office market benefited mediately followed the Expo 2020 win. • Office prices leaped by 45% during Q2 location for foreign investment inflow of from this economic growth with many new busi- capital 1 | ValuStrat - Review 2014 , Outlook 2015 www.valustrat.com | 2 MACRO-ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT DUBAI GDP GROWTH RATE AT CONSTANT PRICES • Dubai’s Economic recovery demon- Residential strated by 4.6% GDP growth in 2013. • The construction sector contributed 7.89% to Dubai’s AED 170.7 billion GDP in the first half of 2014 RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY DUBAI RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY 2012 - 2014 • There were an estimated 450,000 resi- dential units in stock at the beginning of 2014 DUBAI POPULATION • 1,159 villas and townhouses were built • Dubai’s population grew by 5% to in 2014 2.3 million • Out of the 20,000 apartments scheduled • Average household size is esti- to complete in 2014, 16,000 were actually mated at 4.4 persons. handed over in 2014, rolling over approx. 4,000 units for a 2015 completion • The vast majority of units completed were located in Dubai Land, Dubai Sports City, Jumeirah Village and Dubai • Inflation rate in Dubai amounted to Silicon Oasis 3.37% compared to 2013, the hous- • More than 50 off-plan projects were ing & DEWA expenditure group alone launched adding more than 10,000 units increased by 5.63% to supply in next 3 years DUBAI CONSUMER PRICE INDEX INFLATION • On average 43.7% of a household’s RATE VS HOUSING CPI 2014 RESIDENTIAL SALES income is spent towards housing, and utilities • In the fourth quarter average residential 2014 DUBAI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL PRICE • 69.9 million passengers passed PERFORMANCE prices rose by 8% when compared to through the gates of Dubai Airport the previous year (DXB) making it the busiest airport in • When compared to the previous quar- the world for international passengers - ter, average residential prices fell by 4% Surpassing London Heathrow • Average apartment prices peaked dur- • Oil prices fell to under $50 a barrel ing the second quarter to AED 15,340 during the second half of the year per sq m (AED 1,425 per sq ft) • 5,590 business licenses were issued • Average villa prices also peaked during in Dubai during the first 3 months of Q2 to reach AED 14,757 per sq m (AED 2014, followed by 6,023 and 4,845 during 1,371 per sq ft) Q2 and Q3 respectively which is a 5.1% increase when compared to the same period in 2013 3 | ValuStrat - Review 2014 , Outlook 2015 www.valustrat.com | 4 OFFICE SALES 2014 DUBAI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ASKING RENTS PERFORMANCE RESIDENTIAL RENTS • An overall positive price performance with growth slowing down • The first two quarters witnessed asking • Office prices peaked during the sec- 2014 DUBAI AVERAGE OFFICE PRICE rents jump by 25% and 23% Year-on- ond quarter with 45% YoY increase PERFORMANCE Year (YoY) respectively. The second half • Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) price per- of 2014 saw single digit growth formance saw modest growth during • Overall residential asking rents growth the second half of 2014 rate slowed to -3% in the fourth quarter • Grade A office space in DIFC and when compared Q3, and 1% YoY Downtown Dubai drew the highest prices, ranging from AED 21,500 - 32,300 per sq m (AED 2,000 – 3,000 per sq ft) Office OFFICE RENTS OFFICE SUPPLY • YoY asking rent performance saw DUBAI OFFICE SUPPLY 2012 - 2014 • At the beginning of 2014, office gross 2014 DUBAI AVERAGE OFFICE ASKING double digit increases peaking at 18% leasable area stock was estimated RENTS PERFORMANCE during the third quarter of 2014 to have been 7.53 million sq m (81 • Office asking rents continued to rise million sq ft). An additional 260,000 sq by 2%-6% QoQ during 2014 m (2.8 million sq ft) were completed • Business Bay, TECOM C, DIFC and during the year Jumeirah Lake Towers rentals saw • Business Bay was most active in continued growth terms of construction activity fol- • Average asking rents in DIFC peaked lowed by Dubai Silicon Oasis, Sheikh at AED 2,200 per sq m (AED 204 per Zayed Road and DIFC sq ft) in Q4 5 | ValuStrat - Review 2014 , Outlook 2015 www.valustrat.com | 6 Retail Hotel DUBAI HOTEL ROOMS SUPPLY 2012 - 2014 HOTEL SUPPLY DUBAI RETAIL MALLS RETAIL SUPPLY BY GLA 2014 • There were 83,000 hotel and serviced • In 2014, Dubai had a stock of 93 malls apartment rooms in 2013 and shopping centres with a total GLA of • An estimated 10,000 rooms were added 3 million square meters (33 million sq ft) during 2014 • New retail mall supply amounted to • Key additions included the Four Sea- 28,000 sq m (300,000 sq ft) in 2014 sons, Double Tree and Pullman • Key retail mall launches included the Mall of The World, City Centre Me’aisem in IMPZ, Arena Mall, Dubai Pearl, Agora Mall and Nakheel Mall HOTEL PERFORMANCE RETAIL RENTS • Average hotel occupancy during the year stood at 78.85%. February occupancy peaked at 88.6%, • Average prime mall rents ranged AED 5,750 – 6,250 per sq m (AED 535 – 580 per sq ft) while July recorded 45.4% • Average prime mall rents increased by 2% during Q4 quarter compared to Q3 • The number of Russian tourists, who represent 20% of nationalities visiting Dubai, had halved as the Ruble fell • Generally Dubai hotel demand couldn’t catch up with the new additional supply in 2014 DUBAI HOTEL PERFORMANCE 2014 7 | ValuStrat - Review 2014 , Outlook 2015 www.valustrat.com | 8 Dubai Real Estate Market Outlook 2015 - A Year of Moderation Last year Dubai’s real estate market moved from The residential sector is expected to witness Office rents in Downtown Dubai are expected to More hotel rooms and hotel apartments will a heightening boom to a modest correction. further pressure on capital values for high-end continue to witness reductions in asking rents open this year and visitor numbers are expected General sentiment was influenced by major an- properties, whilst properties in mid-affordable until the 2nd quarter of 2015. Landlords in DIFC to increase. However, there is a high probability nouncements, new regulations and economic locations are forecast to see capital values ap- may continue to seek higher rents during the 1st that supply will outpace demand during the year.
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