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The Challenge of Providing Sufficient Grid Capacity for Electrification to Be a Key Factor in Achieving Climate Neutrality Until

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The Challenge of Providing Sufficient Grid Capacity for Electrification to Be a Key Factor in Achieving Climate Neutrality Until Linköping University | Department of Management and Engineering Master's thesis, 30 credits| System Tools for Sustainable Development Spring 2020| LIU-IEI-TEK-A--20/03816—SE The Challenge of Providing Sufficient Grid Capacity for Electrification to Be a Key Factor in Achieving Climate Neutrality Until 2045 - A national and regional demand analysis investigating the future electricity demand and the grid operators' perspectives on large- scale electrification in Sweden Hampus Ackebjer Turesson Jesper Werneskog Supervisor: Maria Johansson Examiner: Magnus Karlsson Linköping University SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden +46 013 28 10 00, www.liu.se Abstract The purpose of the thesis is to contribute to grid planning and public debate about how the electric power system can cope with electrification and decarbonisation. The thesis is based on the assumption that Sweden, in accordance with the climate goals, will achieve climate neutrality by 2045. Based on a literature review, an analysis is made of how different scenarios predict the future national electricity demand up until 2045 and identifies the underlying drivers for changes in electricity demand. A more detailed analysis based on results from a literature review and interviews with industry representatives is made for four chosen regions, Norrbotten, Västra Götaland, Stockholm and Skåne. For each region, estimates are made of how high the electrification potential is in the industrial, transport, residential and service sectors. The prerequisites for the electricity grid to handle the identified electrification potential, in terms of grid capacity, have been analysed in order to highlight what challenges there are for large-scale electrification to be a key factor in achieving the climate goals. The general belief in the studied scenarios is that the national electricity demand will increase until 2045. The investigated scenarios predict increases resulting in an annual national electricity demand of up to 207 TWh in 2045, corresponding to an increase of almost 60 %. The most significant increases are due to decarbonisation in the industry and transport sector. The regional analysis shows significant electrification potentials in the investigated regions. A few industries stand out with dramatic increases, Borealis AB in Västra Götaland shows an electrification potential of 8 TWh and 1 000 MW and SSAB in Norrbotten shows an electrification potential of 9 TWh and 900 MW. Significant electrification potentials in the transport, residential and service sectors have been identified in metropolitan areas, i.e. in the region of Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne. The grid analysis shows that it will be challenging to increase grid capacity at sufficient speed. It is concluded that there is currently insufficient grid capacity to meet large-scale electrification, and that the grids need to be reinforced. However, the concession process for grid reinforcements is considered too slow to meet the demands that arise, primarily in the industry sector. Three ways to address this challenge have been identified: - If the permission process for electricity grid expansion does not change and the industry is to choose the electrification route, this needs to be decided before 2030 in order for reinforcements in the electricity grid to be ensured before 2045. - Speed up the permit process to allow shorter lead times for power grid expansions. - The industry choose another route for decarbonisation than electrification. The overall conclusion is that new approaches for expanding the electricity grid will be required if large-scale electrification is to be a key factor in achieving the climate goals in 2045. Acknowledgement This thesis is written as a final degree project at Linköping University, leading to a master’s degree in the field of Energy, Environment and Management. The thesis work has been carried out externally in cooperation with Vattenfall AB. We would like to show our gratitude towards our supervisor Maria Johansson at the division of Energy Systems at Linköping University for guidance and always taking time in being helpful and supporting when questions about the research work have arisen. We would also like to thank our examiner Magnus Karlsson, also at the division of Energy Systems at Linköping University, for giving us feedback and guidance. We would also like to thank the people at Strategy and Business Development at Vattenfall AB, especially our supervisors Kajsa Kairento and Martin Vallstrand. We greatly appreciate the warm welcome from the department. We are thankful for the great interest that has been shown by the people at Vattenfall AB, both to develop the thesis work, but also in developing our skills regarding problem-solving and analysis, as well as presentation technique. Without this help and guidance, the project would not have been the same. We would also like to acknowledge our student reviewers, Malin Eklund and Jenny Karlsson, for valuable comments on our thesis and contributing with positive energy! Finally, we would like to show our gratitude to everyone else we have been in contact with during the work, those who were interviewed and those who contributed with inputs and guidance. 4th June 2020 Hampus Ackebjer Turesson Jesper Werneskog Table of contents 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.1.1 Aim and research questions .................................................................................................. 5 1.1.2 Scope and delimitations ........................................................................................................ 5 2. CLIMATE GOALS ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 CLIMATE GOALS IN EUROPEAN UNION ............................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 European Emissions Trading System ................................................................................... 6 2.2 CLIMATE GOALS IN SWEDEN ............................................................................................................. 7 3. THE ROLE OF ELECTRICITY IN THE SWEDISH ENERGY SYSTEM .............................................. 9 3.1 THE SWEDISH ELECTRICITY MARKET ............................................................................................... 10 3.1.1 Grid ...................................................................................................................................... 11 4. DECARBONISATION AND ELECTRIFICATION .............................................................................. 16 4.1 THE INDUSTRY SECTOR .................................................................................................................. 17 4.2 THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ............................................................................................................... 21 4.2.1 Road transports ................................................................................................................... 22 4.2.2 Rail traffic ............................................................................................................................ 25 4.2.3 Shipping .............................................................................................................................. 25 4.2.4 Aviation ................................................................................................................................ 26 4.3 THE RESIDENTIAL AND SERVICE SECTOR ......................................................................................... 27 4.4 TECHNOLOGIES FOR DECARBONISATION ......................................................................................... 29 4.4.1 Carbon Capture technologies ............................................................................................. 29 4.4.2 Hydrogen production technologies...................................................................................... 30 4.4.3 Heat treatment technologies ............................................................................................... 30 5. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................ 31 5.1 LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................................................... 33 5.2 QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTION ..................................................................................................... 34 5.3 PHASE 1 – NATIONAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................... 34 5.4 PHASE 2 – REGIONAL DEMAND ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 36 5.4.1 Choice of regions ................................................................................................................ 36 5.4.2 Regional analysis of electricity demand .............................................................................. 36 5.5 PHASE 3 – REGIONAL GRID ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 41 6. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ..............................................................................................................
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