The Population of Bristol August 2013 the Population of Bristol August 2013

The Population of Bristol August 2013 The Population of Bristol August 2013

Key population trends in the Bristol Local Authority area

• There has been a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol over the last decade. This followed a period of population decline in the post war years and a period of stabilisation in the 1990s.

• Since 2001 the population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to have increased by 42,400 people (10.9%), this compares to an England and Wales increase of 8.0% over the same period.

• Population growth in Bristol since 2001 has been the result of a significant increase in net-international migration, a significant increase in the numbers of births and a decrease in the number of deaths.

• International in-migration peaked between 2004 and 2005, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004.

• The increasing numbers of births is partly the result of rising fertility levels and increases in the number of women of child-bearing age. The decrease in deaths is partly a result of falling mortality rates.

• The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol.

• If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 44,800 people (10.5%) between 2011 and 2021 to reach a total population of 472,900 people in 2021.

• The projections suggest continuing increases in the number of children, young people in their 20s and 30s, people in their 50s and older people in their 70s.

Contents

1. Introduction ...... 3 2. Current population ...... 4 Mid-2012 Population Estimates ...... 4 Population by age ...... 5 Population by ward ...... 7 3. Recent population trends ...... 8 Bristol trends ...... 8 Population trends by age ...... 9 Components of population change ...... 10 Small area population trends ...... 14 4. Population projections...... 18 Population projections...... 18 Population projections by age ...... 19 Projected components of population change ...... 20 5. Population characteristics ...... 22 A changing population profile ...... 22 Ethnic group ...... 22 Country of birth ...... 26 Migrants ...... 27 Religion ...... 29 Language ...... 30 Students ...... 31 2011 Census topics ...... 31 6. Policy implications of population change ...... 33 7. Conclusion ...... 34 Useful links ...... 35 Contacts ...... 35

1. Introduction

1.1 The population of Bristol is estimated to be 432,500 people1. Bristol is the largest city in the South West and one of the eight ‘Core Cities’ in England. Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population stabilised in the 1990s and increased substantially during the 2000s. If recent trends continue, Bristol’s population is projected to increase by an additional 44,800 people (10.5%) in the 10 years between 2011 and 2021.

1.2 The 2011 Census shows that over the last decade Bristol has become increasingly diverse. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. The proportion of people living in Bristol who were not born in the UK has increased from 8% to 15% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol.

1.3 Estimating and projecting the population of Bristol and areas within Bristol is important as it underpins local government finance, strategic planning and the provision of local facilities and services. The particular requirements and characteristics of different ethnic and cultural groups also need to be identified.

1.4 This report aims to build a picture of the population of Bristol now and in the future. The report brings together statistics on the current estimated population of Bristol, recent trends in population, future projections and looks at the key characteristics of the people living in Bristol. Bristol data in the report refers to the Bristol Local Authority area unless otherwise stated.

1 ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimate

2. Current population

Mid-2012 Population Estimates

2.1 The mid-2012 population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to be 432,500. Mid- 2012 Population Estimates for local authorities were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 June 2013.

2.2 Bristol is the 7th largest city in England outside of London and the 10th largest local authority in England. Bristol Local Authority accounts for almost 70% of the total population of the built-up area of the city, which is often referred to as ‘Greater Bristol’, or the ‘Bristol Urban Area’. The 2011 Census estimate of population for the Bristol Urban Area was 617,000.

Figure 1. 2012 Population pyramid Source: ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.

80 - 84

70 - 74 Males Females 60 - 64

50 - 54

40 - 44

Age group 30 - 34

20 - 24

10 - 14

0 - 4 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 % of the population

England Females England Males Bristol Females Bristol Males

2.3 The mid-2012 Population Estimates roll-forward the 2011 Census based mid-year estimates. Mid-year Population Estimates are produced for all local authorities and updated annually using a combination of registration, survey and administrative data to estimate the different components of population change. Persons included are those people usually resident2 in Bristol including students and school boarders at their term time address and long-term migrants (i.e. coming to UK for more than a year).

2 The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality. Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year. 4

2.4 Short-term residents3 are not included in ONS estimates of the resident population. Estimates of short-term migration are important in order to give a more complete picture of migration into and out of an area. The 2011 Census estimated that there were around 2,200 short-term migrants living in Bristol on Census Day.

Population by age

2.5 Bristol has a relatively young age profile with more children aged 0-15 than people aged 65 and over. On Census Day the median age of people living in Bristol was 33.7 years old, this compares to the England and Wales median of 39 years. The profile of Bristol’s population by five year age band and sex is illustrated in Figure 1 and estimates for broad age bands and sex are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. 2012 Population estimates by age and sex Source: ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. Males Females Total Age number % number % number % 0-15 41,000 19.0 39,700 18.3 80,700 18.6 16-24 33,300 15.4 33,500 15.5 66,800 15.5 25-49 84,200 39.0 79,700 36.8 163,900 37.9 50-64 32,100 14.9 31,800 14.7 63,900 14.8 65 and over 25,200 11.7 32,000 14.7 57,200 13.2 All ages 215,800 100.0 216,600 100.0 432,500 100.0

Children 2.6 Overall, there are more children living in Bristol than people aged 65 and over. Bristol’s 80,700 children make up almost 19% of the total population, i.e. 1 in every five people living in Bristol is aged under 16.

Working age 2.7 Bristol has a much higher proportion of working age (16-64 year old) people than nationally - 68% of the total population in Bristol is of working age compared to 64% in England and Wales. The highest proportions are of people are amongst the 20-39 year olds which make up more than a third (36%) of Bristol’s total population compared to just over a quarter (27%) nationally.

Older people 2.8 Bristol’s 57,200 older people make up 13% of the total population, i.e. 1 in every seven people living in Bristol is aged 65 or over. The proportion of older people is lower than in England and Wales as a whole where 17% of the population are aged 65 and over. There are more than 9,000 people living in Bristol aged 85 and over.

3 Short term residents are anyone born outside of the UK who has stayed, or intends to stay, in the UK for a period of three months or more but less than twelve months.

Figure 2. 2011 Ward population estimates by broad age band Source: ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Lawrence Hill 4,600 12,800 1,500

Ashley 3,100 12,300 900

Cabot 1,000 14,200 700

Bishopston 2,600 10,300 1,000

Easton 3,000 9,300 1,200

Hillfields 3,100 8,700 1,700

Windmill Hill 2,400 9,700 1,100

Horfield 2,200 9,000 1,700

Cotham 1,100 10,700 800

Avonmouth 2,500 8,000 2,000

Eastville 2,500 8,600 1,400

Southville 1,700 9,300 1,500

Bedminster 1,800 8,800 1,900

Filwood 3,300 7,500 1,500

St George East 2,300 8,100 1,900

Lockleaze 2,700 7,800 1,600

St George West 2,400 7,900 1,700

Southmead 2,800 7,300 1,800

Redland 2,100 8,600 1,000

Hengrove 2,200 7,200 2,300

Bishopsworth 2,400 7,100 2,100

Brislington East 2,200 7,700 1,700

Frome Vale 1,900 7,600 2,200

Hartcliffe 2,600 6,800 2,000

Brislington West 2,100 7,700 1,500

Clifton 1,100 9,000 1,200

Knowle 2,300 7,300 1,600

Stockwood 1,900 6,500 2,300

Whitchurch Park 2,300 6,700 1,800

Henbury 2,200 6,700 1,800

Westbury-on-Trym 2,000 6,100 2,500

Clifton East 700 9,200 700

Henleaze 2,100 6,200 2,100

Kingsweston 2,300 6,400 1,700

Stoke Bishop 1,200 6,200 1,800

Children Working age Pensioners

Population by ward

2.9 The latest population estimates by ward are for mid-2011. The estimates show that the total population varies significantly between wards. Figure 2 shows the total population within each ward together with a breakdown by broad age group.

2.10 The largest ward in Bristol is Lawrence Hill with an estimated usually resident population of 18,900 people, the second largest ward is Ashley with 16,200 people and the third largest ward is Cabot with 15,900 people. Lawrence Hill has more than twice as many residents as Stoke Bishop which is the smallest ward with 9,300 people.

2.11 The age profile within each ward also varies significantly. The highest numbers of children are found in the wards with high levels of social renting including Lawrence Hill (4,600 children), Filwood (3,300), Ashley (3,100), Hillfields (3,100) and Easton (3,000). These wards, with the exception of Filwood, also have relatively large Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) populations.

2.12 The wards with the lowest numbers of children are all in areas in the inner west of Bristol including Clifton East (736), Cabot (1,000), Cotham (1,100) and Clifton (1,100). These wards have the highest proportions of people of working age (16-64 years), including a large number of students, as well as low proportions of people aged 65 and over.

2.13 The highest numbers of people aged 65 and over are in Westbury-on-Trym (2,500), Stockwood (2,300) and Hengrove (2,300). More than a fifth of the total population in these wards is aged 65 and over.

3. Recent population trends

Bristol trends

3.1 Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population of Bristol stabilised in the 1990s which was then followed by a period of unprecedented population growth through the 2000s. Since 2001 the population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to have increased by 42,400 people (10.9%), this compares to an England and Wales increase of 8.0% over the same period. The growth in population includes an additional 10,000 students living in Bristol during term time.

3.2 High levels of population increase have also been experienced in other Core Cities including Manchester (20.8%), Nottingham (14.8%) and Birmingham (10.2%) (see Table 2).

Table 2. Population estimates 2001-2012 West of England and Core Cities Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.

2001 2012 2001-12 % Bath and North East Somerset 169,200 177,600 8,500 5.0 Bristol 390,000 432,500 42,400 10.9 North Somerset 188,800 204,400 15,500 8.2 South Gloucestershire 246,000 266,100 20,200 8.2 West of England 994,000 1,080,600 86,600 8.7 Core Cities Birmingham 984,600 1,085,400 100,800 10.2 Leeds 715,600 757,700 42,000 5.9 Liverpool 441,900 469,700 27,800 6.3 Manchester 422,900 510,800 87,900 20.8 Newcastle upon Tyne 266,200 282,400 16,200 6.1 Nottingham 268,900 308,700 39,800 14.8 Sheffield 513,100 557,400 44,300 8.6 England and Wales 52,360,000 56,567,800 4,207,800 8.0

3.3 In Bristol, annual increases in population have been at unprecedented levels since the year 2002. Figure 3 illustrates annual population change in Bristol since 1951. Most years between 1951 and 1990 saw Bristol’s population decrease. Through the 1990s some years saw an increase and some years a decrease in population. In the 2000s however, Bristol experienced significant annual population increases, particularly in 2004/5 when the A8 Accession countries joined the European Union.

Figure 3. Bristol annual population change 1951 to 2011 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 12,000

10,000 9,700

8,000 6,100

6,000 5,100 4,400 4,200 4,200 4,000

4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 2,900 2,900 2,300 1,800 1,600 2,000 1,400 700 700 400 300 300 300 200 Persons 0 0 0 200 300 300 400 - - - 600 600 600 - 800 800 - - - 900 900 900

-2,000 - - - - - 1,000 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 - 1,300 - - - - - 1,600 - 1,900 2,000 2,100 - 2,200 - 2,300 - -

-4,000 - 2,700 2,900 - 3,000 - - 3,300 3,400 - - 4,100 - -6,000 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,600 - - - - 4,900 - 5,500 -8,000 - 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Year

Population trends by age

3.4 Figure 4 shows the estimated changes in Bristol’s age structure since 2001. In particular there have been significant increases in young children and young adults.

Figure 4. Bristol population change by single year of age 2001 to 2012 Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 3,000

2,500

2,000 0 to 15: 16 to 64: 65 and over: +7,100 +35,900 -600 1,500

1,000 Persons

500

-500

-1,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age

Children 3.5 Between 2001 and 2012 the number of children (aged 0-15) living in Bristol is estimated to have increased by 7,100 (9.7%). This increase has been amongst the 0-8 year olds only (an increase of 23%), with a decline in the 9 to 15 year olds living in Bristol (a decline of 7%). This reflects the substantial increase in numbers of births in Bristol in recent years (see section on Components of Population Change for more information).

Working age 3.6 The working age population in Bristol has increased by 35,900 people (14%) since 2001 compared to an increase of 8% in England and Wales as a whole. The greatest increase was in the 21-33 year olds which increased by 24% between 2001 and 2012. This age group alone accounted for 59% of the total increase in the working age population in Bristol during this period. Many of these people are likely to be international migrants (see section on Components of Population Change for more information).

Older people 3.7 The Bristol population continues to age gradually. The over 85 age group has increased by 1,700 people (22.3%) between 2001 and 2012. Overall however, the number of older people aged 65 and over in Bristol has decreased slightly since 2001.

Components of population change

3.8 The estimated components of population change in Bristol are shown in Figure 5 and Table 3. These show that population growth in Bristol since 2001 has been generated by international in-migration, increasing numbers of births and decreasing numbers of deaths. There was a notable spike in international in-migration between 2004 and 2005, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004.

Figure 5. Components of population change in Bristol 2001-12 Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 12,000

International Migration Net 10,000 Internal Migration Net

8,000 Natural Change Other 6,000 8,828

4,132 1,913 5,389 949 534 4,000 1,544 204 1,928 252 Persons 2,282 1,113 3,270 2,000 3,591 3,100 3,256 1,566 2,653 2,615 1,945 2,323 1,326 1,726 701 1,019 0 -79 -140 -453 -1,008 -1,941 -2,062 -1,770 -2,000 -2,380

-4,000 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Year

Table 3. Components of change in Bristol 2001-12 Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Births 4,600 4,900 5,200 5,400 5,400 5,800 6,200 6,100 6,400 6,600 6,900 Deaths 3,900 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,300 3,300 3,300 Natural 700 1,000 1,300 1,700 1,900 2,300 2,700 2,600 3,100 3,300 3,600 Change Internal 21,800 22,900 23,400 24,300 25,300 24,800 24,700 25,700 25,400 25,200 27,300 Migration In Internal 23,800 25,000 25,200 24,500 25,700 27,200 25,700 24,600 25,500 24,900 27,100 Migration Out Internal -1,900 -2,100 -1,800 -100 -500 -2,400 -1,000 1,100 -100 300 200 Migration Net International 5,000 7,200 8,800 11,600 6,200 6,400 6,500 5,100 5,100 5,900 5,100 Migration In International 3,500 3,900 3,400 2,800 3,900 2,300 4,500 4,200 3,600 4,000 4,600 Migration Out International 1,600 3,300 5,400 8,800 2,300 4,100 1,900 900 1,500 1,900 500 Migration Net Other -600 -500 -700 -800 -800 -600 -700 -500 -500 -400 0 changes Migration & -1,000 700 3,000 7,900 1,100 1,200 300 1,600 1,000 1,800 800 Other

Births and deaths 3.9 In Bristol, live births are increasing and deaths are decreasing resulting in an increase in the population due to natural change (i.e. live births minus deaths). Since 2001, the population of Bristol has increased by 20,700 people due to natural change alone, accounting for 54% of all population change in Bristol over that time period (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. Components of natural change (births minus deaths) in Bristol 2001-11 Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 10,000 Births 9,000 Deaths 8,000 Natural Change 7,000

6,000

5,000 Persons 4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Year

3.10 Nationally, in 2010 the Total Fertility Rate4 (TFR) was at its highest since 1973. Possible causes of the rise in fertility may include:

• more women currently in their twenties having children • more women at older ages (born in the 1960s and 1970s) are having children that had previously postponed having them • increases in the numbers of women born outside the UK who tend to have higher fertility rates than UK-born women • government policy and the economic climate indirectly influencing individuals' decisions around childbearing

3.11 Increasing fertility rates over the past decade have been reflected in Bristol with an increase in births in the city rising from 4,600 live births per annum in 2001/2 to 6,900 births per annum in 2011/12.

3.12 Changes in total fertility rate are driven mainly by women born in the UK as they make up the majority of the population of childbearing age (see Figure 7). However, non-UK born women made up an increasing share of the population, which also acted to push fertility rates upwards between 2001 and 2011. The percentage of births in Bristol to foreign born-mothers has increased from 13% in 2001 to 26% in 2011. In 2011, the Total Fertility Rate for non-UK born women in England and Wales was estimated to be 2.29 children per woman, compared to 1.90 for women born in the UK.

Figure 7. Live births by mother's country of birth Bristol 2001-11 Source: ONS Annual District Birth data

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000 Number of of births Number 2,000

1,000

- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Births to UK born mothers Births to non-UK born mothers Total births

4 The TFR is the average number of live children that a group of women would have if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing lives. The TFR provides an up-to-date measure of the current intensity of childbearing. 12

3.13 Statistics are also available on the country of birth of the mother. Figure 8 shows trends in numbers of live births since 1995 in Bristol of the top five countries not including UK born mothers.

Figure 8. Number of live births to non-UK born mothers Five most common countries of birth of mother - Bristol 1995-2011 Source: ONS Annual District Birth data

400 Somalia 350 Poland

300 Pakistan India 250 Germany

200

150 Number of births Number 100

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year

3.14 Since 2000, the number of births to Somalia-born mothers has increased substantially, although has remained fairly constant since 2006. In 2011, out of a total of 6,718 live births in Bristol, 298 (4.4%) were to a Somalia-born mother. The increase in the number of births to Polish mothers is also a relatively new phenomenon (since the expansion of the EU in 2004) and accounted for 226 births in Bristol in 2011. The next highest numbers of births were to Pakistani-born mothers (105) and India-born mothers (89).

Migration 3.15 Since 2001, the population of Bristol has increased by 17,400 people due to net migration and other changes, accounting for 46% of all population change in Bristol over that time period. During the 1990s net migration resulted in the loss of residents from Bristol. This trend turned around from 2001/02 when net migration resulted in more people coming into Bristol than leaving.

3.16 Net international migration in Bristol increased substantially in the early part of the decade with a notable spike in international in-migration between 2004 and 2005, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004. Since 2007/8 net international migration started to fall.

3.17 Net internal migration5 has resulted in an overall loss of 8,500 people from Bristol between 2001 and 2012. However, since 2008/09 more people have been moving into Bristol from other parts of the country than leaving.

5 Internal migration includes migration within England & Wales, plus cross-border migration flows to and from Scotland and Northern Ireland. 13

3.18 It is important to note that the numbers of people moving in and out of Bristol to other parts of the UK (population flows) are much larger than the numbers of international migrants. For example, in 2011/12 27,300 people moved into Bristol from other areas of UK and 27,100 moved out of Bristol to other areas of UK. In contrast, 5,100 people moved into Bristol from outside the UK and 4,600 people moved out of Bristol to go abroad.

3.19 Estimates of migration are subject to higher levels of uncertainty than numbers of births and deaths. In particular, estimates of international migration rely, to a substantial extent, on the International Passenger Survey

3.20 To summarise: the large increase in the population of Bristol between 2001 and 2012 can be attributed to the significant increase in net-international migration, the significant increase births and a decrease in the number of deaths. Net international migration has however reduced in significance since 2007 and population change between 2011 and 2012 was mainly due to the increase in births.

Small area population trends

3.21 The Office for National Statistics publish annual population estimates for small areas including wards and Lower Layer Super Output Areas6 (LSOAs). Figure 9 and Table 4 show population change between 2001 and 2011 by ward. The areas of highest population growth have been in central areas of Bristol.

3.22 Whilst there have been significant estimated increases in population across many wards in Bristol between 2001 and 2011, there has been exceptional increases in Cabot of 6,100 (62.2%) people and Lawrence Hill of 5,700 (43.2%) people. In fact, over the decade, almost a third (31%) of the total increase in population in Bristol took place in Cabot and Lawrence Hill wards alone.

3.23 Other wards which have experienced large increases in population since 2001 are Ashley 2,800 (20.9%), Southville 2,200 (21.5%), Bedminster 1,700 (15.7%), Bishopston 1,700 (13.8%) and Cotham 1,600 (15.1%). At the same time there has also been decreasing populations in Henleaze, Stockwood, Whitchurch Park, Stoke Bishop and Kingsweston wards.

6 Lower Layer Super Output Areas form a geographic hierarchy designed to improve the reporting of small area statistics in England and Wales. They have a population of between 1,000 and 3,000 persons and are designed to have social homogeneity. 14

Figure 9. Population change 2001 to 2011 by ward Source: ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright

Table 4. Population estimates 2001-2011 by ward Source: ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright

Change % Change Ward 2001 2011 2001-11 2001-11 Ashley 13,400 16,200 2,800 20.9 Avonmouth 12,200 12,500 300 2.7 Bedminster 10,800 12,400 1,700 15.7 Bishopston 12,200 13,900 1,700 13.8 Bishopsworth 11,400 11,600 200 2.0 Brislington East 11,500 11,600 100 0.9 Brislington West 10,600 11,400 700 6.9 Cabot 9,800 16,000 6,100 62.2 Clifton 10,500 11,300 700 7.0 Clifton East 9,600 10,600 1,000 10.3 Cotham 10,900 12,600 1,600 15.1 Easton 12,200 13,500 1,300 10.6 Eastville 11,000 12,500 1,500 13.4 Filwood 11,600 12,300 600 5.4 Frome Vale 10,800 11,600 800 7.7 Hartcliffe 11,200 11,500 200 2.1 Henbury 9,500 10,700 1,200 12.3 Hengrove 11,300 11,700 400 3.4 Henleaze 10,500 10,400 -100 -1.1 Hillfields 12,400 13,500 1,100 9.3 Horfield 11,400 12,800 1,500 12.8 Kingsweston 10,900 10,400 -600 -5.1 Knowle 11,000 11,300 300 2.9 Lawrence Hill 13,200 18,900 5,700 43.2 Lockleaze 11,200 12,100 900 7.9 Redland 10,900 11,800 900 8.3 St George East 11,400 12,200 800 7.1 St George West 10,900 11,900 1,000 9.0 Southmead 11,100 11,900 800 7.3 Southville 10,300 12,500 2,200 21.5 Stockwood 10,900 10,800 -200 -1.5 Stoke Bishop 9,700 9,300 -400 -4.4 Westbury-on-Trym 10,300 10,700 400 3.5 Whitchurch Park 11,100 10,800 -200 -2.1 Windmill Hill 12,300 13,200 900 7.0 Bristol 390,000 428,100 38,000 9.7

3.24 The characteristics of population change vary from ward to ward across Bristol. Figure 10 illustrates what the most likely generators of population change at a ward level have been over the past decade. The births and deaths data are shown along with an estimate of migration and other changes which have been calculated by subtracting natural change from overall population change. This analysis shows that whilst there has been significant levels of births across many wards over the decade, the population of a number of wards, notably Cabot and Lawrence Hill, appears to been subject to large increases in net- migration.

Figure 10. Estimates components of population change 2001 to 2011 by ward Source: Strategic Planning based on ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright 8,000 Estimated migration and other changes 2001-11 7,000 Deaths 2002-11 6,000 Births 2002-11 5,000

4,000

3,000

Persons 2,000

1,000

-1,000

-2,000

-3,000

Ward

3.25 Cabot and Lawrence Hill are examples of the differences in the characteristics of population change between wards. Analysis of changes in age structure between 2001 and 2011 show that population growth in Cabot was focused in the early 20s age group, mainly thought to be students. Data on housing development indicates that there has been a large increase in student accommodation in the city centre.

3.26 In contrast, Lawrence Hill ward showed population growth particularly in children and young adults. The large increase in international migration over the decade has contributed to the increase in population in Lawrence Hill ward. The majority of new migrants to Bristol live in the inner city areas of Bristol which are characterised by a high proportion of BME residents, a high proportion of rented accommodation, a high proportion of non-family households and higher than average levels of unemployment.

4. Population projections

Population projections

4.1 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 44,800 people over a 10 year period (2011-2021) to reach a total population of 472,900 people by 2021. This is a projected increase of 10.5% which is higher than the projection for England of 8.6%.

4.2 Population projections are usually published every two years by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Sub-national population projections provide estimates of the future population of English regions, local authorities and primary care organisations, assuming a continuation of recent local trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The projections do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances, local development policy, the capacity of an area to accommodate population or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

4.3 Interim 2011-based subnational population projections were published on 28th September 2012. Bristol has concerns about these projections as they do not fully take account of the 2011 Census and the intercensal trends. The next set of 2012-based subnational population projections are due to be published by ONS in May 2014.

Figure 11. Population trend 1981 to 2021 Source: Mid Year Estimates of Population and Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

500000

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000 Persons 200000

150000

100000 ONS 2011-based population projections 50000 ONS Mid year population estimates

0 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Year

Figure 12. Annual population change 1981-2035 Source: 2010-based and Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 12,000

ONS Mid year population estimates

10,000 9,700 ONS 2011-based population projections ONS 2010-based population projections 8,000

6,000 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,800 4,500 4,400 4,400 4,200 4,200 4,100 4,000 4,000 3,800 3,600 4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 2,900 2,900 1,800 1,600

2,000 1,400 Persons 400 300 200 0 0 0 200 300 - 400 - - 600 600 -2,000 - - 1,100 1,100 - - 1,600 - 2,100 -4,000 - 3,400 - -6,000 4,900 - 5,500 - -8,000 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2034-35 Year 4.4 Figure 12 shows levels of annual population change between 1981 and 2011 together with projected levels of annual population change up to 2021 (based on the Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections) and up to 2035 (based on the 2010-based Sub-national Population Projections).

Population projections by age

Table 5. Population projections by broad age band for Bristol 2011-2021 Source: Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics Change 2011-2021 Age 2011 2016 2021 number % 0-15 78,700 81,900 86,900 8,200 10.4 16-24 66,000 71,200 68,100 2,100 3.2 25-49 163,300 173,700 185,000 21,700 13.3 50-64 64,000 66,500 70,100 6,200 9.7 65-74 27,900 31,500 32,300 4,400 15.7 75 and over 28,200 28,200 30,500 2,300 8.0 All ages 428,100 453,000 472,900 44,800 10.5

4.5 Within Bristol, between 2011 and 2021 all age bands are projected to increase. Table 5 shows the projected change in population by broad age band. Figure 13 shows the projected change in the number of people within each five year age band.

Children 4.6 The number of children in Bristol is projected to continue to increase between 2011 and 2021. In total there is projected to be an additional 8,200 children by 2021, an increase 19

of 10.4%. Within this age group, the number of 4-12 year olds are projected to increase the most. Children as a proportion of the total population is likely to stay the same at around 18% in spite of the increased number of children living in Bristol.

Working age 4.7 There is projected to be an increase in the number of working age people (aged 16- 64) living in Bristol over the 10 year period 2011-2021. In total there is projected to be an additional 30,000 working age people by 2021, an increase of 10%. Within this age group, the number of 20-39 year olds are projected to increase the most. The working age population as a proportion of the total population is likely to stay the same at around 68%.

Older people 4.8 By 2021 there is likely to be 62,700 people aged 65 and over living in Bristol. In total there is projected to be an additional 6,600 older people, an increase of 12%. Older people as a proportion of the total population is likely to stay the same at around 13%.

Figure 13. Projected change in population by single year of age Bristol 2011-2021 Source: Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 2,500 0 to 15: 16 to 64: 65 and over: 2,000 +8,200 +30,000 +6,600

1,500

1,000

Persons 500

-500

-1,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age

Projected components of population change

4.9 The projected components of population change, shown in Figure 14, illustrate continuing high levels of births in Bristol over the next decade, falling levels of net international migration, gains from which will be offset by more people leaving Bristol to live in other parts of the UK than moving to Bristol from other parts of the UK.

Births and deaths 4.10 Births are projected to continue to contribute significantly to population change in Bristol over the next decade. Whilst the number of births is expected to reach 6,900 per annum, the numbers of deaths per annum is expected to fall to 3,000 per annum by 2021. As a result natural change (births minus deaths) is expected to account for more than 4/5 of the total population increase in Bristol over the next decade (see Figure 14). 20

4.11 One reason for the high level of natural change is that Bristol has a relatively young age structure. Nearly half (47%) of people in 2012 were estimated to be aged between 16 and 44 years, the main childbearing ages, compared to the England average of 39%.

Migration 4.12 Change due to net migration is projected to continue to decrease over the decade. Of the total increase in population between 2011 and 2021, less than one fifth is expected to be due to net migration with the remainder of the increase due to natural change.

Figure 14. Projected components of population change for Bristol 2011-2021 Source: Interim 2011-based Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

International Migration Net Internal Migration Net Deaths Births 10,000

8,000 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 800 400 0 6,000

4,000 6,400 6,600 6,700 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,900 6,900 6,900 2,000 Persons 0

-3,200 -3,200 -3,100 -3,100 -3,100 -3,100 -3,000 -3,000 -2,000 -3,300 -3,300 -300 -200 -600 -700 -1,000 -4,000 -1,300 -1,500

-6,000 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Year

4.13 The significant increase in international migration into Bristol since 2004 is projected to decrease substantially in the next few years, although the projections still show more international migrants coming into Bristol than leaving but in much lower numbers. In terms of internal migration, by 2014/15 the projections indicate that there will be more people leaving Bristol to live in other parts of the UK than people moving in from other parts of the UK (see Figure 14).

5. Population characteristics

A changing population profile

5.1 As outlined in earlier sections of this report, since 2001 there has been a large increase in the total number of people living in Bristol which has resulted in a changing population profile. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol.

5.2 Although all parts of the city have experienced changes in the people living in their area since 2001, in terms of changes to population characteristics these have been concentrated in the inner city and inner east areas of the city, in particular in the wards of Lawrence Hill, Ashley, Easton and Eastville. Cabot has also experienced a large growth in population but this is mainly attributable to a large increase in the number of students since 2001, in particular international students.

5.3 The remainder of this section will map the main characteristics of Bristol’s population (excluding age which has been covered earlier) using the 2011 Census results and look at how these characteristics have changed since 2001. The following characteristics are included:

• Ethnic group • Country of birth • Migrants • Religion • Language • Students

Ethnic group 5.4 The Black or Minority Ethnic group (BME) population (all groups with the exception of all the White groups) make up 16% of the total population in Bristol. This is an increase from 8.2% of all people in 2001.

5.5 An alternative definition of the population that can be used is the non-‘White British’ population (all groups with the exception of White British) which includes the Eastern European population. The non-‘White British’ population make up 22% of the total population in Bristol - this is an increase from 12% of all people in 2001.

Pakistani 6,863 Caribbean Black Other 6,727 6,922 Indian 6,547 Other Asian 4,255 African 12,085

Chinese 3,886 White British Non-'White British' 333,432 94,802 Irish 3,851 Any other Mixed, 15,438 ethnic group 2,543 Bangladeshi 2,104 Arab 1,272 Other White 21,950 Gypsy or Irish Traveller 359

Somali population estimate

The Somali population are not identified as a separate ethnic group in the 2011 Census but are included in both the Black African and Black Other groups, depending on which tick box people chose on the Census questionnaire.

The best estimate we can make of the number of Somalis living in Bristol is to take the number of Black Africans and Black Others who identified themselves as Muslims and to then subtract those Muslims born in parts of Africa outside Eastern Africa. This gives us a Somali population estimate of 8,100.

Local knowledge suggests that it is likely that some Somalis, in particular men living in informal accommodation, may have been under estimated by the 2011 Census. Taking this into consideration, the likely number of Somalis living in Bristol in 2011 could be around 10,000.

5.6 The age profile of the BME population is much younger than the age profile of the Bristol population as a whole. The proportion of children (aged 0-15) who belong to a BME group is 28%, the proportion of people of working age (aged 16-64) who belong to a BME group is 15% and the proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) who belong to a BME group is just 5%.

5.7 Table 6 shows how different ethnic groups have changed since 2001. The largest increases by ethnic group since 2001 have been in Other White, Black African, Black Other and Multiple/mixed ethnic groups. These changes reflect the large growth in the Somali and the Polish populations in Bristol, as well as an increase in international students and the increasingly mixed child population. The Somali population estimate text box has more information about the number of Somalis living in Bristol.

Table 6. Population by ethnic group 2001 and 2011 Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis] Note: the 2001 Census undercounts the population in Bristol by around 10,000 2001 Census 2011 Census Ethnic group number % number % White British 335,085 88.0 333,432 77.9 White Irish 4,321 1.1 3,851 0.9 White Gypsy or Irish Traveller n/a n/a 359 0.1 White Other 10,124 2.7 21,950 5.1 Mixed ethnic group 7,934 2.1 15,438 3.6 Indian 4,595 1.2 6,547 1.5 Pakistani 4,050 1.1 6,863 1.6 Bangladeshi 1,230 0.3 2,104 0.5 Chinese 2,149 0.6 3,886 0.9 Other Asian 984 0.3 4,255 1.0 Black African 2,310 0.6 12,085 2.8 Black Caribbean 5,585 1.5 6,727 1.6 Black Other 936 0.2 6,922 1.6 Arab n/a n/a 1,272 0.3 Any other ethnic group 1,312 0.3 2,543 0.6 Total White 349,530 91.8 359,592 84.0 Total BME 31,085 8.2 68,642 16.0 All people 380,615 100.0 428,234 100.0 Total non-‘White British’ 45,530 12.0 94,802 22.1

5.8 The BME population varies significantly across the city - in Lawrence Hill ward 55% of all people belong to a BME group compared to 4% in Whitchurch Park. This difference is emphasised even more when looking at areas smaller than wards (see Figure 17) – in ‘St Pauls Grosvenor Road’ 80% of all people belong to a BME group whilst just 1.4% are BME in ‘The Coots’ in Stockwood.

5.9 Since 2001, the distribution of the BME population of Bristol has changed considerably (Figure 17). Whilst in 2001 the BME population largely lived in the inner city wards of Ashley, Easton, Lawrence Hill and Eastville, with all other wards having a BME population of below 14%, in 2011 the distribution of the BME population had extended out to the north east of the city. Now wards with a BME population of above 14% include Lawrence Hill, Easton, Ashley, Eastville, Lockleaze, Cabot, Hillfields, St George West, Frome Vale, Horfield and Southmead.

Country of birth 5.10 In 2011, 15% people living in Bristol were born outside the UK, this is an increase since 2001 when the proportion of people born outside the UK was 8%. Of the 15% born outside the UK, 19,686 (4.6%) were born in other EU countries (including 10,520 in Accession countries) and 40,540 (9.5%) were born in countries outside of the EU.

Poland 6,415 Somalia 4,947 India 3,809 Jamaica 3,279 Other EU accession countries 3,025 Ireland 2,900 Pakistan 2,770 Other EU member countries (March 2001) 2,478 Germany 2,329

5.11 There are at least 50 countries represented in Bristol. Figure 18 lists the ten most popular countries of birth of Bristol residents. On Census Day, Poland was the most popular country of birth with 6,415 Polish-born residents, followed by 4,947 people who were born in Somalia – the latter is the 4th highest number of Somali-born of all local authorities after Birmingham (7,765), Brent (6,855) and Ealing (6,468).

5.12 Lawrence Hill ward has the highest proportion of people not born in the UK at 37% of the total population. Cabot ward has the second highest proportion of people not born in the UK making up 30.5% of all residents in the ward. Many of these are students.

Migrants 5.13 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a series of questions about migration, including questions about when people migrated to the UK and what age they were when they arrived.

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000 Number of of Number people 10,000

5,000

0 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2011

Year of arrival in UK Year of arrival in UK

Born in the UK 365,108 Arrived 1981-1990 4,021 Arrived before 1941 301 Arrived 1991-2000 8,885 Arrived 1941-1950 952 Arrived 2001-2003 7,947 Arrived 1951-1960 2,594 Arrived 2004-2006 12,183 Arrived 1961-1970 4,274 Arrived 2007-2009 12,207 Arrived 1971-1980 3,451 Arrived 2010-2011 6,311

5.14 Figure 19 shows the year of arrival of people living in Bristol who were born outside of the UK. Of the people living in Bristol not born in the UK, the majority (60%) have been resident in the UK for less than 10 years. The greatest number of migrants arrived between the years 2004 and 2009, when more than 24,000 people came to live in Bristol from outside of the UK. Of the people not born in the UK, 69% arrived in the UK when they were of working age and 30% arrived as children.

5.15 Figure 20 shows where recent migrants now live in Bristol. New migrants tend to live in inner city areas of Bristol in particular in Cabot and Lawrence Hill wards.

Religion 5.16 There are at least 45 religions represented in Bristol. However, Bristol is ranked 7th in England and Wales for the proportion of people stating that they have no religion - 37% of the population state they have no religion, up from 25% in 2001.

5.17 The largest religion in Bristol is Christian (47%), although following national trends the proportion of people stating that they are Christian has fallen from 62% in 2001. Since 2001 the religion with the biggest increase in Bristol has been Islam which increased from 2% of all people in Bristol in 2001 to 5% of all people in 2011.

Religion not stated, 34,782

Christian, 200,254 No religion, 160,218

Other religion, Buddhist, 2,549 2,793 Sikh, 2,133 Hindu, Muslim, 22,016 Jewish, 777 2,712

Language 5.18 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a question about main language spoken and proficiency in English. This found that there are at least 91 main languages spoken in Bristol.

5.19 The main languages spoken other than English are illustrated in Figure 22 whereby the size of the text represents the number of people who speak that language as their main language. English is the main language spoken in Bristol followed by Polish and Somali. Overall 9% of people do not speak English as their main language.

4.0 3.7 3.4 3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5 1.3

1.0 % of people aged 3 and over and 3 aged people % of 0.5 0.2 0.0 Can speak English Can speak English Cannot speak Cannot speak very well well English well English

5.20 Proficiency in English is categorised into people who can speak English very well, those who can speak English well, those who cannot speak English well and those who cannot speak English. Overall in Bristol 1.5% of people cannot speak English or cannot speak English very well (see Figure 23).

5.21 Interestingly, although there is a high proportion of people whose main language is not English living in Cabot ward (19.3%), there is a very low proportion of those who do not speak English or do not speak it well (1.5%). This reflects the high proportion of foreign students living in the ward who speak English well.

Students 5.22 The number of full time students aged 18 and over living in Bristol during term time has increased by just over 10,000 from 25,573 to 35,638. Students now make up 8.3% of the total population of Bristol.

5.23 In Bristol, students tend to be concentrated in particular areas of the city including Cabot, Clifton East, Cotham and Clifton with concentrations also in Stoke Bishop (University of Bristol student accommodation) and Fishponds (University of the West of England accommodation) (see Figure 24).

5.24 Students make up more than half of residents in four Lower Layer Super Output Areas - Woodland Road, St James Barton and University in Cabot ward and University Halls in Stoke Bishop.

2011 Census topics The 2011 Census covers a wide range of topics in addition to those about the characteristics of the population. Other topics covered include:

• living arrangements • mode of travel to work • marital status • accommodation type (i.e. • general health houses/flats) • disability • tenure • qualifications • household size and overcrowding • economic activity • car availability • hours worked • type of central heating • socio-economic classification • family composition • industry • commuting patterns • occupation

More data about Bristol is available from the useful links at the end of this report including summary tables, topic reports and area profiles.

6. Policy implications of population change

6.1 Understanding the size and characteristics of the population and how it is changing is important to our understanding of society and the economy. Population estimates and projections are used for planning, resource allocation, business decisions and a broad range of public policy purposes. They provide key contextual information for research and analysis and in calculating rates for key demographic measures, performance targets and economic indicators such as employment rates.

6.2 Below are some policy implications of the changing population of Bristol:

• The increase in population has service delivery implications. Concentration of this growth on particular population groups in certain areas of the city, such as Somalis in Lawrence Hill, Ashley and Easton, will have localised implications on the delivery of these services.

• New communities bring both advantages and new challenges around cohesion and integration. The Community Cohesion Strategy sets out how we will foster good relations between equalities communities and the wider community.

• Increasing numbers of new dwellings to accommodate additional households is likely to have an impact on a wide range of environmental, social and economic issues.

• The rise in Bristol’s birth rate will have implications for health and education provision in the city. The projected growth in the school age population has significant implications for education provision.

• Large numbers of young people move into and out of the city each year. Provision of student and key worker accommodation can help successfully accommodate future increases in student numbers without adding to demand on the private housing stock. Over concentrations of people living in multi-occupied households, including students, can lead to particular localised amenity issues. The student population has seasonal impacts throughout the year and also provide a considerable support to local economies.

• Bristol has an ageing population, although the future changes in the age structure of the population are not as acute as other local authorities in the South West. An ageing population will have implications for primary and secondary health care services and social care provision. A range of health issues, including disabilities and limiting long-term illnesses, may be more prevalent in a more elderly population.

• Population growth in Bristol and the wider sub-region can help support a growing economy through increasing demand for goods and services and moderate the impacts of an ageing labour supply. The relative economic growth of Bristol together with new housing provision will, to some extent, generate additional migration into the area. However a range of other factors will influence migration patterns both into and out of the area, including education, retirement, lifestyle, etc.

7. Conclusion

7.1 Over the last decade, there has been a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol. Population growth since 2001 has been the result of a significant increase in net- international migration, a significant increase in the numbers of births and a decrease in the number of deaths.

7.2 The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol.

7.3 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 44,800 people (10.5%) between 2011 and 2021 to reach a total population of 472,900 people in 2021. The projections suggest continuing increases in the number of children, young people in their 20s and 30s, people in their 50s and older people in their 70s.

7.4 In future there are expected to be changes to the ways in which population is measured. The Office for National Statistics is currently taking a fresh look at options for the production of population and small area socio-demographic statistics for England and Wales via their Beyond 2011 programme of research. The Census is currently the main source of population statistics.

Useful links

Bristol City Council population pages http://www.bristol.gov.uk/population

Bristol City Council census pages including 2011 Census Profiles for wards and other areas and more detailed Topic Reports http://www.bristol.gov.uk/census

Office for National Statistics main population pages with further links to estimates, projections, quality reports and frequently asked questions http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Population+Estimates

Office for National Statistics migration statistics quarterly report http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/february- 2012/msqr.html

Contacts

Jayne Mills, Strategic Planning / Consultation Research and Intelligence E: [email protected] T: 0117 90 36873

Michael Legg, Strategic Planning E: [email protected] T: 0117 90 36872

Bristol City Council August 2013