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The Population of Bristol August 2013 the Population of Bristol August 2013

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The Population of Bristol August 2013 the Population of Bristol August 2013 The Population of Bristol August 2013 The Population of Bristol August 2013 Key population trends in the Bristol Local Authority area • There has been a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol over the last decade. This followed a period of population decline in the post war years and a period of stabilisation in the 1990s. • Since 2001 the population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to have increased by 42,400 people (10.9%), this compares to an England and Wales increase of 8.0% over the same period. • Population growth in Bristol since 2001 has been the result of a significant increase in net-international migration, a significant increase in the numbers of births and a decrease in the number of deaths. • International in-migration peaked between 2004 and 2005, the result of the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004. • The increasing numbers of births is partly the result of rising fertility levels and increases in the number of women of child-bearing age. The decrease in deaths is partly a result of falling mortality rates. • The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some local communities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. • If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 44,800 people (10.5%) between 2011 and 2021 to reach a total population of 472,900 people in 2021. • The projections suggest continuing increases in the number of children, young people in their 20s and 30s, people in their 50s and older people in their 70s. 1 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 3 2. Current population ............................................................................................................. 4 Mid-2012 Population Estimates ......................................................................................... 4 Population by age ............................................................................................................... 5 Population by ward ............................................................................................................. 7 3. Recent population trends ................................................................................................... 8 Bristol trends ....................................................................................................................... 8 Population trends by age .................................................................................................... 9 Components of population change .................................................................................. 10 Small area population trends ........................................................................................... 14 4. Population projections...................................................................................................... 18 Population projections...................................................................................................... 18 Population projections by age .......................................................................................... 19 Projected components of population change .................................................................. 20 5. Population characteristics ................................................................................................ 22 A changing population profile .......................................................................................... 22 Ethnic group ...................................................................................................................... 22 Country of birth ................................................................................................................ 26 Migrants ............................................................................................................................ 27 Religion ............................................................................................................................. 29 Language ........................................................................................................................... 30 Students ............................................................................................................................ 31 2011 Census topics ........................................................................................................... 31 6. Policy implications of population change ......................................................................... 33 7. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 34 Useful links ............................................................................................................................... 35 Contacts ................................................................................................................................... 35 2 1. Introduction 1.1 The population of Bristol is estimated to be 432,500 people1. Bristol is the largest city in the South West and one of the eight ‘Core Cities’ in England. Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population stabilised in the 1990s and increased substantially during the 2000s. If recent trends continue, Bristol’s population is projected to increase by an additional 44,800 people (10.5%) in the 10 years between 2011 and 2021. 1.2 The 2011 Census shows that over the last decade Bristol has become increasingly diverse. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from 12% to 22% of the total population. The proportion of people living in Bristol who were not born in the UK has increased from 8% to 15% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living in Bristol. 1.3 Estimating and projecting the population of Bristol and areas within Bristol is important as it underpins local government finance, strategic planning and the provision of local facilities and services. The particular requirements and characteristics of different ethnic and cultural groups also need to be identified. 1.4 This report aims to build a picture of the population of Bristol now and in the future. The report brings together statistics on the current estimated population of Bristol, recent trends in population, future projections and looks at the key characteristics of the people living in Bristol. Bristol data in the report refers to the Bristol Local Authority area unless otherwise stated. 1 ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimate 3 2. Current population Mid-2012 Population Estimates 2.1 The mid-2012 population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to be 432,500. Mid- 2012 Population Estimates for local authorities were published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 26 June 2013. 2.2 Bristol is the 7th largest city in England outside of London and the 10th largest local authority in England. Bristol Local Authority accounts for almost 70% of the total population of the built-up area of the city, which is often referred to as ‘Greater Bristol’, or the ‘Bristol Urban Area’. The 2011 Census estimate of population for the Bristol Urban Area was 617,000. Figure 1. 2012 Population pyramid Source: ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. 80 - 84 70 - 74 Males Females 60 - 64 50 - 54 40 - 44 Age group 30 - 34 20 - 24 10 - 14 0 - 4 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 % of the population England Females England Males Bristol Females Bristol Males 2.3 The mid-2012 Population Estimates roll-forward the 2011 Census based mid-year estimates. Mid-year Population Estimates are produced for all local authorities and updated annually using a combination of registration, survey and administrative data to estimate the different components of population change. Persons included are those people usually resident2 in Bristol including students and school boarders at their term time address and long-term migrants (i.e. coming to UK for more than a year). 2 The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality. Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year. 4 2.4 Short-term residents3 are not included in ONS estimates of the resident population. Estimates of short-term migration are important in order to give a more complete picture of migration into and out of an area. The 2011 Census estimated that there were around 2,200 short-term migrants living in Bristol on Census Day. Population by age 2.5 Bristol has a relatively young age profile with more children aged 0-15 than people aged 65 and over. On Census Day the median age of people living in Bristol was 33.7 years old, this compares to the England and Wales median of 39 years. The profile of Bristol’s population by five year age band and sex is illustrated in Figure 1 and estimates for broad age bands and sex are shown in Table 1. Table 1. 2012 Population estimates by age and sex Source: ONS 2012 Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright. Males Females Total
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