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Hungarian-Romanian Relations: Assessing Prospects for Cooperation and Conflict

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Hungarian-Romanian Relations: Assessing Prospects for Cooperation and Conflict Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1994-12 Hungarian-Romanian relations: assessing prospects for cooperation and conflict Rodgers, Joel E. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/42858 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA f)FrfiC ELECTEt MAY 0 2 1995 F THESIS HUNGARIAN-ROMANIAN RELATIONS: ASSESSING PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION AND CONFLICT By Joel E. Rodgers December 1994 Thesis Advisor: DavidS. Yost Approv.ed for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19950501 022 - ----------------------------------- Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704.0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, inducting the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, inducting suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washingon headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Sutte 1204, Ar1ington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704 0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave ,2.REPORT DATE ,3.REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED blank) December 1994 Master's Thesis 4.TITLE AND SUBTITLE HUNGARIAN-ROMANIAN RELATIONS: ASSESSING S.FUNDING NUMBERS PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION AND CONFLICT 6.AUTHOR(S) Joel E. Rodgers ?.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) &.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey CA 93943-5000 9.SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 1 O.SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11.SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13.ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis investigates to what extent antagonism between Hungary and Romania may affect their future relations. The antagonistic elements in their relations are rooted in each nation's history and strategic culture. However, since strategic culture is only one of a large array of factors determining state behavior, structural realism and other pertinent theories are also considered in this examination of contemporary political interactions. Western options to deal with the problem are also assessed, in order to evaluate the degree to which external powers may be able to constructively influence Hungarian-Romanian relations. This thesis concludes that Hungarian-Romanian relations will probably improve as these states become more deeply integrated into the Western community of nations. This improvement may not mean friendship, but it may entail a better working relationship necessitated by a common need to become integrated with the West. However, the problems between the two countries may be too deeply entrenched to be solved in a generation. Conflict in the form of diplomatic posturing and verbal jousting may continue as before, but the threat of armed combat has subsided with the increase of Western influence in the region. D1.1C QUAlJ'A'"'i I1~llPECTED a 14. SUBJECT TERMS Hungary, Romania, NATO expansion. 15.NUMBER OF PAGES 124 16.PRICE CODE 7. SECURITY B. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 9.SECURITY CLASSIFICATION ~O.LIMITATION OF LASSIFICATION OF REPORT pFTHIS PAGE pFABSTRACT f'.BSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. HUNGARIAN-ROMANIAN RELATIONS: ASSESSING PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION AND CONFLICT by Joel E. Rodgers Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University of Florida, 1988 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December~y Author: Approved by: Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs 111 IV ABSTRACT This thesis investigates to what extent antagonism between Hungary and Romania may affect their future relations. The antagonistic elements in their relations are rooted in each nation's history and strategic culture. However, since strategic culture is only one of a large array of factors determining state behavior, structural realism and other pertinent theories are also considered in this examination of contemporary political interactions. Western options to deal with the problem are also assessed, in order to evaluate the degree to which external powers may be able to constructively influence Hungarian-Romanian relations. This thesis concludes that Hungarian-Romanian relations will probably improve as these states become more deeply integrated into the Western community of nations. This improvement may not mean friendship between the two states, but it may entail a better working relationship necessitated by a common need to become integrated with the West. However, the problems between the two countries may be too deeply entrenched to be solved in a generation. Conflict in the form of diplomatic posturing and verbal jousting may continue as before, but the threat of armed combat has subsided with the increase of Western influence in the region. Accesion 'for 1 NTIS CRA&I ~ OTIC TAB 0 Unannounced 0 Justifica.tion ~--------··---------- ------------- ----.~-- By ______________________________ ., _______________ Distribution I ----- Avail3biliiy Codes _,_. _______ Avail a;:cJ for Dist Special v A-1 I VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ..................................... 1 A. THESIS GOALS .................................... 1 B. METHODOLOGY ....................................2 C. ORGANIZATION OF ARGUMENT ........................2 II. STRATEGIC CULTURE .................................. 5 A. HUNGARY ....................................... 5 1. An Overview of Hungary's History ....................... 5 2. Hungarian Culture and Society ........................... 17 3. Hungarian Strategic Culture .............................21 a. Belief that they are a Western European nation ...............21 b. Calvinist religion a distinguishing factor ...................22 c. Hungary is surrounded by antagonistic states and nations .........22 d. Pessimistic attitude toward the intentions and capabilities of government . 23 e. Belief that they are generally non-discriminatory. .. 24 f. Tradition of foreign powers influencing domestic politics .........25 g. Belief in a strong bond between Magyars at home and abroad ......25 h. The importance of the village ..........................26 B. ROMANIA .........................................26 1. An Overview of Romania's History ........................26 2. Romanian Culture and Society . 34 a. Germans .......................................39 b. Gypsies .......................................40 c. Jews .........................................42 3. Romanian Strategic Culture . .43 a. Intolerant nationalism based upon an inferiority complex .........44 b. Multi-ethnic state characterized by strong ethnic allegiances ........44 c. Traditions of public conformity, passivity and deference to authority ..45 d. Winner take all attitude toward domestic politics ............. .45 e. Traditionally an agricultural nation in which modem industry came relatively late . 46 f. Fear of external states and great power relations . .46 g. Questioning of the inviolability of borders ..................47 Vll III. CONTEMPORARY DOMESTIC POLITICS ...................... .49 A. HUNGARY ........................................49 1. Hungarian Political Parties ............................ 50 2. HSP-AFD Governance ................................52 3. Assessment ...................................... 55 B. ROMANIA ........................................57 1. Romanian Political Parties ..............................58 2. Extreme Nationalism in Romania ..........................61 3. Romanian Politics in Action ............................64 4. Assessment. .66 IV. CURRENT ISSUES ......................................69 A. BILATERAL TREATY NEGOTIATIONS .....................69 B. ECONOMICS .......................................74 1. Hungary ........................................74 2. Romania ........................................75 C. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION MEMBERSHIP .............76 1. NATO ..........................................77 2. PFP ...........................................79 3. CSCE ..........................................80 4. WEU ..........................................81 V. CONCLUSIONS .......................................83 A. ASSESSMENT OF PAST TRENDS .........................83 1. Hungary . 83 2. Romania . 85 3. Hungarian-Romanian Relations ...........................86 B. PATHS FOR WESTERN INFLUENCE .......................87 1. The United States and NATO ............................89 2. Western Europe ....................................91 3. Germany . .. 92 4. Russia ..........................................93 C. PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE COOPERATION ...................94 D. PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE CONFLICT .....................97 Vlll BIBLIOGRAPHY ...........................................99 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ................................. 109
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