ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Hungary
Q1 2021
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 1
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter 2021 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 511 employers in Hungary.
All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2021 as compared to the current quarter?”
Interviewing was carried out during the exceptional circumstances of the COVID-19 outbreak. The survey findings for the first quarter of 2021 are likely to reflect the impact of the global health emergency, and may be notably different to previous quarters.
Contents
Hungary Employment Outlook 1 Organization-Size Comparisons Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons
About the Survey 11
About ManpowerGroup® 12 Hungary Employment Outlook
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 2
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 Hungarian Employment Outlook
Net Employment Seasonally Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Outlook Adjusted %%%%%% Jan-Mar 2021 8882 203 Oct-Dec 2020 11 9773 23 July-Sep 2020 813736-5 -5 Apr-June 2020 11 3842 84 Jan-Mar 2020 5191 347
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
Hungarian employers report subdued hiring intentions Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal for the January to March period. With 8% of employers variation, the Outlook stands at +3% and is forecasting an increase in payrolls, 8% expecting a unchanged in comparison with the prior quarter. decrease and 82% anticipating no change, the When compared with this time one year ago, hiring resulting Net Employment Outlook is 0%. prospects weaken by 4 percentage points.
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 1
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 Organization-Size Comparisons Participating employers are categorized into one of four Large employers report an improvement of 4 percentage organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 points in comparison with the prior quarter, but the employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Outlook for Micro firms declines by 3 percentage points. Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and In the Small-size category, hiring intentions remain relatively Large businesses have 250 or more employees. stable, while Medium employers report no change.
Employers in both the Large- and Small-size categories Hiring prospects decline by 9 percentage points for expect to grow payrolls in the upcoming quarter, Medium employers when compared with this time reporting Net Employment Outlooks of +9% and +2%, one year ago, while Outlooks are 6 and 2 percentage respectively. Elsewhere, Medium employers report points weaker for Micro- and Large-size employers, uncertain hiring plans with an Outlook of -1%, while respectively. Meanwhile, hiring intentions remain Micro firms expect to trim payrolls, reporting an relatively stable for Small employers. Outlook of -4%.
Net Employment Seasonally Organization-Size Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Outlook Adjusted %%%%%%
Micro-Size less than 10 2690 2-4-4 Small-Size 10-49 10 7794 32 Medium-Size 50-249 811801-3 -1 Large-Size 250 or more 15 9 76 069
Micro-Size less than 10 Small-Size 10-49 Medium-Size 50-249 Large-Size 250 or more 40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data
2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 2
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 Regional Comparisons Employers in three of the eight regions expect to add Northern Hungary, Southern Great Plain and Western to payrolls during the upcoming quarter. The strongest Transdanubia – while the Central Hungary Outlook labor market is forecast for Central Hungary, where the increases by 2 percentage points. However, hiring Net Employment Outlook of +12% reflects respectable prospects weaken in three regions, most notably by hiring plans. Elsewhere, job gains are also anticipated 14 percentage points in Southern Transdanubia and in Central Transdanubia and Western Transdanubia, by 4 percentage points in Budapest. where Outlooks stand at +5% and +3%, respectively. When compared with this time one year ago, employers However, employers in four regions expect to trim in five of the eight regions report weaker hiring intentions. payrolls, most notably with Outlooks of -6% reported in A considerable decline of 10 percentage points is both Southern Great Plain and Southern Transdanubia. reported for Budapest, while Outlooks are 9 percentage Budapest employers report a muted Outlook of -4% points weaker in Northern Great Plain, Southern Great and the Outlook for Northern Hungary is -2%. In Plain and Southern Transdanubia. Meanwhile, hiring Northern Great Plain, employers forecast a flat labor plans strengthen in two regions, most notably by market with an Outlook of 0%. 5 percentage points in Central Hungary. Hiring sentiment strengthens in four of the eight regions in comparison with the prior quarter. Outlooks are 3 percentage points stronger in three regions –
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
-3 Budapest -4 11 Central Hungary 12 4 Central Transdanubia 5 -3 Northern Great Plain 0 -1 Northern Hungary -2 -6 Southern Great Plain -6 -6 Southern Transdanubia -6 3 Western Transdanubia 3 -10 -5 0 510 15
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 3
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 3
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 -3 (-4)% Budapest The weakest labor market in seven years is forecast for the coming quarter, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -4%. Hiring plans weaken by 4 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter and decline by 10 percentage points when compared with Quarter 1 2020.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
+11 (+12)% Central Hungary Job seekers can expect to benefit from the strongest hiring pace in two years during the next three months, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. Hiring intentions are 2 percentage points stronger quarter-over-quarter and improve by 5 percentage points when compared with this time one year ago.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
+4 (+5)% Central Transdanubia In the first quarter of 2021, employers continue to anticipate modest payroll gains, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5% for the second consecutive quarter. Hiring prospects are also unchanged in comparison with the same period in 2020.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 4
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 -3 (0)% Northern Great Plain With a Net Employment Outlook of 0%, employers forecast flat hiring activity during the January to March period. The Outlook declines by 2 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter and is 9 percentage points weaker when compared with the first quarter of 2020.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
-1 (-2)% Northern Hungary The labor market slump is expected to continue in Quarter 1 2021, with employers reporting a third consecutive negative Net Employment Outlook, standing at -2%. Hiring prospects improve by 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but are 3 percentage points weaker when compared with this time one year ago.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
-6 (-6)% Southern Great Plain Job seekers can expect the sluggish hiring pace to continue in the forthcoming quarter, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of -6%, the third consecutive negative forecast. Hiring plans improve by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but are 9 percentage points weaker year-over-year.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 5
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 5
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 -6 (-6)% Southern Transdanubia Employers anticipate a struggling labor market in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of -6%. Hiring sentiment declines by a considerable margin of 14 percentage points in comparison with the prior quarter and is 9 percentage points weaker when compared with the first quarter of 2020.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
+3 (+3)% Western Transdanubia Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +3%, employers forecast a slight increase in payrolls during the January to March period. Hiring plans improve by 3 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 2 percentage points in comparison with the same period last year.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
6 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 6
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 Sector Comparisons Employers expect to increase payrolls in five of the & Hotels sector. Meanwhile, Outlooks improve by seven industry sectors during the first quarter of 2021. 6 and 3 percentage points in the Finance & Business The strongest hiring prospects are reported by Services sector and the Manufacturing sector, Manufacturing sector employers with a Net Employment respectively. Outlook of +9%. Elsewhere, Outlooks of +5% are When compared with the same period in 2020, hiring reported in both the Construction sector and the sentiment strengthens in three of the seven industry Finance & Business Services sector, while Outlooks sectors, including increases of 3 percentage points in both the Other Production sector and the Wholesale reported in both the Finance & Business Services & Retail sector stand at +2%. However, Restaurants sector and the Manufacturing sector. However, hiring & Hotels sector employers anticipate a gloomy hiring plans also weaken in three sectors. Restaurants climate, reporting an Outlook of -13%, while the & Hotels sector employers report a considerable Outlook for the Other Services sector is -3%. decrease of 15 percentage points, while Outlooks Hiring prospects weaken in four of the seven industry are 7 and 5 percentage points weaker in the Other sectors when compared with the previous quarter, most Services sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade notably by 9 percentage points in the Construction sector, respectively. sector and by 6 percentage points in the Restaurants
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
2 Construction 5 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 7 & Business Services 5
Manufacturing 10 9
Other Production -2 2
Other Services -3 -3
Restaurants & Hotels -15 -13
Wholesale & Retail Trade 3 2
-20 -15 -10 -5 0510 15
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 7
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 7
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 +2 (+5)% Construction Employers expect modest workforce gains during the forthcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. Hiring plans are 9 percentage points weaker in comparison with the prior quarter, but remain relatively stable when compared with this time one year ago.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
+7 (+5)% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Job seekers can expect a mild hiring climate in the coming quarter, according to employers who report a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. The Outlook increases by 6 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and is 3 percentage points stronger year-over-year.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
+10 (+9)% Manufacturing With a Net Employment Outlook of +9%, employers report encouraging signs for the January to March period. Hiring sentiment strengthens by 3 percentage points in comparison with both the final quarter of 2020 and last year at this time.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
8 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 8
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 -2 (+2)% Other Production The soft labor market is forecast to continue during the next three months, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2% for the second consecutive quarter. Hiring intentions are also unchanged when compared with the first quarter of 2020.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
-3 (-3)% Other Services With a Net Employment Outlook of -3%, employers forecast muted hiring activity during Quarter 1 2021. While hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with the prior quarter, employers report a year-over-year decline of 7 percentage points.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
-15 (-13)% Restaurants & Hotels The labor market slump is expected to continue in the January to March period, with employers reporting a third consecutive negative Net Employment Outlook, standing at -13%. Hiring plans decline by 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are 15 percentage points weaker when compared with this time one year ago.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 9
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 9
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 +3 (+2)% Wholesale & Retail Trade Slow-paced job gains are anticipated in the next three months with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +2%. Hiring sentiment remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but is 5 percentage points weaker when compared with last year at this time.
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero
10 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 10
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is Methodology conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey increase or decrease the number of employees in their is conducted using a validated methodology, in workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s accordance with the highest standards in market comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has research. The survey has been structured to be been running for more than 55 years and is one of the representative of each national economy. The margin most trusted surveys of employment activity in the of error for almost all national, regional and global data world. Various factors underpin the success of the is not greater than +/- 5%. ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking and area of focus. the percentage of employers anticipating an increase Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment in hiring activity and subtracting from this the Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease employment survey in the world, asking employers to in employment at their location in the next quarter. forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, The result of this calculation is the Net Employment other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and to report on what occurred in the past. territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format Independent: The survey is conducted with a unless otherwise stated. representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for The survey participants are not derived from all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup’s customer base. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more Robust: For Quarter 1 2021, sample sizes are smaller historical data is compiled. than other quarters, reflecting the impact of the global health emergency so total number of interviews is significantly lower than normal in some countries. The survey is based on interviews with over 37,500 public and private employers across 43 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question:
For the Quarter 1 2021 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2021 as compared to the current quarter?”
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 11
SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 11
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20 About ManpowerGroup® ManpowerGroup® (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands – Manpower®, Experis® and Talent Solutions® – creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across more than 75 countries and territories and has done so for over 70 years. We are recognized consistently for our diversity – as a best place to work for Women, Inclusion, Equality and Disability and in 2020 ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the eleventh year – all confirming our position as the brand of choice for in-demand talent.
ManpowerGroup Hungary 76.Váci Road Budapest 1133 Tel: +36 1 411 1590 Fax: +36 1 411 1585 www.manpowergroup.hu
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SMART JOB NO: 60470 QUARTER 1 2021
CLIENT: MANPOWER
SUBJECT: MEOS Q121 – HUNGARY _ENGLISH – TWO COLOUR – A4
SIZE: A4
DOC NAME: 60470_Hungary_English_2Col_A4_Q121 PAGE: 12
ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 24.11.20