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Appendix K. Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Study (RPS 2017D)

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Appendix K. Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Study (RPS 2017D) Appendix K. Hydrocarbon spill modelling study (RPS 2017d) ConocoPhillips Barossa Project Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Prepared by: Prepared for: RPS CONOCOPHILLIPS AUSTRAL IA Suite E1, Level 4 Dr Brenton Chatfield 140 Bundall Rd 53 Ord Street Bundall, QLD 4217 West Perth WA 6005 T: +61 7 5574 1112 Mail: PO Box 1102 F: +61 8 9211 1122 West Perth WA 6872 E: [email protected] Client Manager: Dr Sasha Zigic T: +61 8 6363 2666 Report Number: MAQ0540J.000 E: [email protected] W: www.conocophillips.com.au Version / Date: Rev1/4 April 2017 apasa.com.au ConocoPhillips Barossa Project Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Document Status Version Purpose of Document Original Review Review Date Draft A Issued for client review Dr Ryan Dunn Dr Sasha Zigic 28/2/2017 Rev 0 Issued for client review Dr Ryan Dunn Dr Sasha Zigic 28/2/2017 Rev 1 Issued to client Dr Sasha Zigic 04/4/2017 Approval for Issue Name Signature Date Dr Sasha Zigic 30/3/2017 DISCLAIMER: This report has been issued to the client under the agreed schedule and budgetary requirements and contains confidential information that is intended only for use by the client and is not for public circulation, publication, nor any third party use without the approval of the client. Readers should understand that modelling is predictive in nature and while this report is based on information from sources that RPS considers reliable, the accuracy and completeness of said information cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, RPS, its directors, and employees accept no liability for the result of any action taken or not taken on the basis of the information given in this report, nor for any negligent misstatements, errors, and omissions. This report was compiled with consideration for the specified client's objectives, situation, and needs. Those acting upon such information without first consulting RPS, do so entirely at their own risk. MAQ0540J; Rev1/4 April 2017 Page ii ConocoPhillips Barossa Project Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Contents TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Project background ..................................................................................................................... 3 2. HYDROCARBON SPILL MODEL ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Development of regional current data ....................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Tidal currents .................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 Tidal conditions ............................................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 Ocean currents ............................................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 Surface currents in the Barossa offshore development area ....................................... 10 2.1.5 Tidal and current model validation ................................................................................ 12 2.2 Wind data .................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 Wind data validation ..................................................................................................... 22 2.3 Drifter Buoy Deployment ........................................................................................................... 24 2.3.1 Model comparisons and validation ............................................................................... 24 2.4 Ocean temperature and salinity................................................................................................ 29 2.5 Stochastic modelling ................................................................................................................. 29 2.6 Hydrocarbon properties ............................................................................................................ 31 2.7 Model settings and assumptions ............................................................................................. 43 2.8 Sea surface and sub-surface thresholds ................................................................................. 44 2.9 Receptors assessed .................................................................................................................. 46 3. MODELLING RESULTS ........................................................................................................................ 50 3.1 Scenario 1: Refuelling incident (10 m3 MDO) .......................................................................... 51 3.1.1 Single trajectory ............................................................................................................ 51 3.1.2 Stochastic modelling ..................................................................................................... 52 3.2 Scenario 2: Vessel collision leading to loss of a single FPSO facility (2,975 m3 MDO) ...... 57 3.2.1 Single trajectory ............................................................................................................ 57 3.2.2 Stochastic modelling ..................................................................................................... 59 3.3 Scenario 3: Vessel collision leading to loss of a single FPSO facility condensate storage tank (19,400 m3 Barossa condensate) ...................................................................................... 80 3.3.1 Single trajectory ............................................................................................................ 80 3.3.2 Stochastic modelling ..................................................................................................... 82 3.4 Scenario 4: Long-term well blowout (16,833 m3 Barossa condensate) .............................. 104 3.4.1 Single trajectory .......................................................................................................... 104 3.4.2 Stochastic modelling ................................................................................................... 106 3.5 Scenario 5: Vessel collision leading to loss of a single export tanker fuel tank (650 m3 HFO) ........................................................................................................................................... 139 3.5.1 Single trajectory .......................................................................................................... 139 3.5.2 Stochastic modelling ................................................................................................... 140 3.6 Scenario 6: Vessel collision leading to loss of a single pipelay vessel fuel tank (500 m3 MAQ0540J; Rev1/4 April 2017 Page iii ConocoPhillips Barossa Project Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling IFO-180) .....................................................................................................................................148 3.6.1 Single trajectory .......................................................................................................... 148 3.6.2 Stochastic modelling ................................................................................................... 149 4. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 160 MAQ0540J; Rev1/4 April 2017 Page iv ConocoPhillips Barossa Project Hydrocarbon Spill Modelling Tables Table 1 Barossa offshore development area and gas export pipeline corridor hydrocarbon spill modelling release locations ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Table 2 Predicted average and maximum surface current speeds adjacent to the Barossa offshore development area release location. Data derived by combining the HYCOM ocean data and HYDROMAP tidal data from 2010-2014 (inclusive). .............................................................................................................. 10 Table 3 Statistical evaluation between measured water levels and HYDROMAP predicted water levels at CP1 ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 4 Statistical evaluation between averaged measured currents and HYCOM ocean current and HYDROMAP tidal current at CP1, CP2 and CP3 at varying water depths (July 2014 to March 2015) ........... 18 Table 5 Predicted average and maximum winds for the closest station to the Barossa offshore development area ................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 6 Measured average and maximum wind speeds in the Barossa offshore development area.............. 22 Table 7 Statistical evaluation between the measured and predicted winds ..................................................... 24 Table 8 Drifter buoy identification number (ID), comparison duration and distance travelled buoy used as part of the drifter track model comparisons during
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