Systemic Risk and Portugal’s Forest Fire Defense Strategy An Assessment of Wildfire Management and Response Capability A Report Submitted to Grupo PortucelSoporcel September 2009 Mark Beighley & A. C. Hyde Beighley Consulting LLC. Table of Contents Executive Summary Report Overview I Assessing Wildfire Risk Wildfire Risk under Asymmetric Fire Conditions Factors Contributing to Increasing Fire Risk Climate Change and Effects on Fire Occurrence, Severity and Burned Area Structural Fire Risk Factors: Fuels and Vegetation Condition Human Factors in Fire Occurrence Summary – A Fire Risk Table for Portugal’s Next Decade II Examining Fire Protection System Capability Previous Assessments of System Functionality Institutional Reforms Recent Improvements to System Capability Limits to Forest Fire Combat Capability Structural Prevention Requirements Summary – A Scorecard of Current National Fire Management Capacity III Evaluating Operational Effectiveness Fire Management System Staffing and Functionality Incident Command and Control Systems - Communication Systems Operations Coordination and Aerial Means Coordination Initial Attack Suppression Response Surveillance, Detection and First Alert First Intervention/Initial Attack Longer Term Suppression Extended and Amplified Combat Mop-up and Rekindles Summary of Review Observations & Findings IV Concluding Recommendations Appendices Beighley Consulting LLC. 2 List of Tables and Figures Figure 1 – Annual Wildfire Burned Area in Portugal: 1980-2008 Table 1 - Evolution of the number of fires, with areas larger than one hectare, by burned area class Figure 2 - Portugal Fires over 1 ha - 2001-2008 Figure 3 - Fire Density in the EU – 2008 Figure 4 - Fire Risk Table for Portugal’s Next Decade Table 2 - Portugal Fire Fighting Assets Figure 5 - Large Fires and Fire Frequency – Select Months Figure 6 - Fire Management Scorecard Appendix A— Risk under Asymmetric Fire Conditions Appendix B—List of Interviews Appendix C—References Appendix D—Report Authors Beighley Consulting LLC. 3 Executive Summary Between 30 July and 3 August 2003, 80 fires burned more than 220,000 hectares in mainland Portugal. Within that same period on 2 August, 2003, 36 fires burned more than 90,000 hectares in a single day! Prior to 2003, that was the average burned area for an entire year. A record heat wave had a grip on most of Europe. At the time, this rare situation was considered a weather anomaly, something that might only happen once in a century. Then in 2005, it happened again. A record high number of ignitions during a summer plagued by insistent drought resulted in an excessively large burned area. Twice in three years is not an anomaly. In fact, many meteorologists and climate researchers are now looking at the most recent decade as a new normal; a new baseline of weather and climate statistics from which to view the future. Could it happen again, and if so - more importantly, when? This review, commission by Grupo PortucelSoporcel, examines future levels of systemic risk in Portugal’s forest fire defense and management capability by assessing first the potential for future extreme fire years or worse per what occurred in 2003 and 2005. Fire researchers in Portugal have been studying this problem assessing fire activity and its severity extensively from a number of perspectives. The general consensus is that Portugal is experiencing much greater total forest fire activity and a greater frequency of larger wildfires. This review reaffirms three main conclusions about future wildfire risk that can be derived from the analysis and studies conducted in Portugal in this decade: 1. The risk of an extreme fire year (over 250,000 ha. i.e. 2003 & 2005) continues to increase. 2. The incidence of large fires (>100 ha) is increasing for summers with average to severe burning conditions. 3. The frequency of concurrent multiple large fires and high numbers of fire occurrences is likely to increase in even normal fire years and certainly be a major issue for extreme fire years. A second part of the review looks at the changes made in Portugal’s fire defense framework and resource levels following major system changes made as a result of the 2003 & 2005 fire years. While structural fuel treatment planning and implementation skills have improved and the core of a viable structural defense program has been established, fuels continue to be added much faster than they’re being removed. Extensive burned areas from 2003 and 2005 are now ready to burn again with little management of forests outside of pulp company control. Although legal mechanisms have been put in place to organize small landowners to take effective, collective DFCI action, most ZIFs are still in planning stages and not yet functioning as needed. A coordinated structural prevention effort over large landscapes by multiple small plot landowners continues to be rare. This review also confirms that great improvements have been made in operational readiness, National and District level interagency coordination, and fire incident command and control. However, the continued toleration of more than one commander for a fire and the lack of tactical airspace coordination when using multiple types of aircraft on fires, both increase the potential for system failure. Beighley Consulting LLC. 4 The jury is still out on the effectiveness of the new SIRESP communications system until fully deployed in 2010. The final part of the review called for a review of system performance effectiveness through on- site field visits during the peak fire season this year. While fire activity was not high and did not tax the system dramatically, this report offers some comments on functionality and operating efficiency. Surveillance, first intervention and initial attack are aggressive and highly effective when fires are quickly detected and accurate locations are reported. However, major deficiencies still exist in the detection system, particularly in management of the RVPV towers. Slow detection and imprecise reporting of fire location significantly reduces initial attack success. Fire cause and criminal evidence is often disturbed by the first arriving fire brigades resulting in a low probability of accurate cause determination, identifying motives and the apprehension of suspects. The system has greatly increased aerial capability for continued assault on extended attack fires. However, this can far exceed the capability of firefighters on the ground to make effective use of the water drops. The construction of firelines, other than by using existing roads, is still relatively rare. This deficiency contributes to an unacceptably high percentage of rekindles. System improvements are evident but may not be of sufficient significance to alter the burned area outcome when above average to extreme burning conditions exist. The result is that in 1 out of every 4 years on average, Portugal will be at risk of suffering significant forest fire losses. Portugal’s forest fire defence system needs to ensure that it has adequate strategic planning and risk management processes in place to be able to handle the increasing probability of extreme and ultra-extreme fire years. To accomplish this, the report concludes, Portugal must focus additional attention and investment on the system areas below. More Strategic Fire System Planning and Risk Management Enhanced Fire Prevention – both in the Reduction of Occurrences and Increased Structural Fuel Treatments Stronger Tactical Fire Suppression - Coordination and Accountability Enhanced Training & Development Investments New Investments in Evaluation and Research Specific recommendations for each area will be found in the 4th section of the Report. In conclusion, this report urges that there is no room for complacency. As far as the system has come since the catastrophic fire years of 2003 & 2005, there is still further to go. Portugal must especially use whatever calm fire years it experiences to best advantage in moving forward. Beighley Consulting LLC. 5 Report Overview This report seeks to analyze the current state of Portugal’s national wild fire protection system in light of increased resource levels and improvements made since 2005. The review aims to compare emerging levels of wildfire risk dues to changing climate and land conditions with Portugal’s fire protection system capability and to assess how the system has operated to date. The report is divided into three parts. Part I analyzes the fire history in Portugal with an emphasis on the current decade. It evaluates three significant characteristics of Portugal’s Fire experience: High inter-annual variability between fire years and how this ―non-pattern‖ resembles asymmetric fire conditions, Rising incidence of large fires (over 100 ha) and probability of large fires occurring on multiple fronts in different geographic areas, Impact of multiple large fires and fire occurrence frequency resulting in concurrent demand for fire response Completing these assessments is a two-fold examination of driving forces and contributing factors that are impacting fire risk and a look into recent fire research work on climate change and how it is altering Portugal’s forests and landscapes. A summary risk table portrays future scenarios ranging from a very benign fire year with under 75,000 hectares impacted to more extreme fire years of over 250,000 ha or a climate change induced worst case scenario of a fire year of over 500,000 ha and weighs historical and future probabilities and impacts. Part II