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Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007

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Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Officers of the World Energy Council Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary André Caillé World Energy Council 2007 Chair, World Energy Council Majid Al-Moneef Copyright © 2007 World Energy Council Vice Chair, Special Responsibility for Gulf States & Central Asia Francisco Barnés de Castro All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or Vice Chair, North America reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Asger Bundgaard-Jensen Council, London, www.worldenergy.org Vice Chair, Finance Published 2007 by: Alioune Fall Vice Chair, Africa World Energy Council Regency House 1-4 Warwick Street Norberto Franco de Medeiros London W1B 5LT United Kingdom Vice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean ISBN: 0 946121 29 X C.P. Jain Chair, Studies Committee Younghoon David Kim The full report is available on the World Energy Council website Vice Chair, Asia Pacific & South Asia at www.worldenergy.org. Marie-José Nadeau Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee Chicco Testa Chair, Rome Congress 2007 Johannes Teyssen Vice Chair, Europe Elias Velasco Garcia Chair, Special Responsibility for Investment in Infrastructure Ron Wood Chair, Programme Committee Zhang Guobao Vice Chair, Asia Gerald Doucet Secretary General Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 1 Contents Contents 1 Introduction 2 Toward a new global energy regime 4 Dynamics of global energy markets 8 Achieving a sustainable energy future 10 WEC policy recommendations 12 Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 2 Introduction To meet the energy demand of all households worldwide, energy supplies must double by 2050. This is the most important finding of WEC’s Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050. It is a myth that the task of meeting the world’s This may sound like a tall order, but there are enough energy resources around the energy needs while addressing climate change world to satisfy the energy demand over the is simply too expensive and too daunting. With next forty-plus years. greater cooperation, greater investment, and clear rules for energy trade, together we can The challenge will be how to get these build a sustainable energy future. resources and energy services from where they are produced to the places that have the greatest need for them. Turning the traditional The second most important finding is that while modelling approach upside fossil fuels will continue to account for the down largest proportion of primary energy requirements through the next four decades, we To provide insight on the rapidly changing can not only double world energy supplies and environment in which the energy sector improve access but also effectively manage operates, beginning with Energy for Tomorrow’s greenhouse gas emissions and address climate World published in 1993, WEC has updated or change. built new energy scenarios. In 1998 Global Energy Perspectives, published with the The main driver to address this dual challenge International Institute for Applied Sciences will be higher energy prices. Higher prices will (IIASA) in Vienna, became a reference in the propel the developed world towards greater energy sector. energy efficiency and attract much higher levels of capital investment in infrastructure. But Starting in 2000, WEC went a step beyond, massive new levels of public and private providing a list of actions linked to these investment in research, development and scenarios, including three sustainability goals deployment of clean and more efficient which have now become widely understood technologies are also urgently needed. within and outside the energy sector, as the Governments must do their part by establishing 3 A’s: to meet global energy demand, future global rules of energy trade and setting a stable energy supplies must fulfill three criteria: price for carbon that is clearly understood by accessible, affordable modern energy for all; markets and investors. Government available energy, that is, reliable and secure engagement in these and other areas must be delivery; and acceptable - meeting social and encouraged while much deeper cooperation and environmental goals. integration within and among regions of the world, and between the public and private In this year’s Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050, sectors is essential. The private sector must be we decided to take a new approach to correspondingly engaged. scenarios, moving away from strictly statistical Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 3 It is a myth that the task of meeting the world’s energy needs while addressing climate change is simply too expensive and too daunting. modelling to an approach that would take us into degree from country to country and region to the field for a bottom-up regional view of our region. energy future focusing on policies to ensure energy sustainability. These four approaches are represented by: f The lion, a highly skilled, social animal A series of 20 workshops were conducted from that launches its forays after careful July 2005 to April 2007 in various regions of the planning and in a highly cooperative world. Over 400 principals from industry, effort, exercising great control and government, academia, NGOs and trade groups discipline, represents strong government gave their views of how to meet the need for engagement, together with close energy that is accessible, available, and cooperation and deep integration of the acceptable by 2020, 2035 and 2050. These public and private sectors, domestically experts came from the five global regions, and internationally. Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the f The giraffe, a highly adaptable and Caribbean and North America, and from all independent creature that thrives in an facets of energy planning: energy production, unstructured environment and sees finance, academia, civil society, and opportunity at great distances, describes government. These qualitative views of how market-driven actions made with minimal policies can address future challenges to the government involvement but a high delivery of clean energy services in all regions of degree of cooperation and integration of the world were checked for consistency against the public and private domains, a mathematical model of the energy sector. In domestically and cross borders. addition, seven specialist groups provided f The elephant, a social animal with good current data on everything from climate change memory that relies mostly on its own well- to power generation, energy price drivers and structured family unit with little electricity consumption patterns, transport and cooperation between families, finance. characterizes government deeply engaged in policymaking, but with little cooperation between nations or Introducing our global integration of the public and private policymaking framework spheres. f The leopard, a solitary creature who is Using the metaphors of four well-known animals, swift to act in isolation, and represents the work of the WEC Scenarios group delineates energy responses with little government four possible approaches by decision makers to involvement and little cooperation and the challenges of delivering future energy in a integration of the public and private sustainable and secure way. These will vary by sectors. Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 Executive Summary World Energy Council 2007 4 Toward a new global energy regime While each region has different priorities for Lion: strong global economy, developing its energy supply and services, the achievement of WEC’s 3 A’s depends in all global pacts on emissions, and regions on closer cooperation and integration. on dealing with energy poverty As fresh talks get underway during the UN Framework for Climate Change (UNFCC) Overall, the lion scenario, with high levels of meetings about the post 2012 period, a major government involvement and high levels of finding of the WEC Scenarios should be kept in cooperation and integration, proved broadly the mind: regions of the world, with their varying best strategy for achieving WEC’s 3 A’s in all rates of economic and social development, do regions in the developed and developing world. not have the same policy priorities. Of the four scenarios this approach produces Africa, the least developed region, is principally the best estimates for maintaining a strong concerned with increasing access to energy. On global economy while reducing energy intensity, the other end of the spectrum, Europe, with a tackling climate change, and improving access mature and well-developed regional economy, to modern energy sources and services. places more emphasis on energy acceptability in Governments and the private sector share their its policymaking. expertise and experience, bolstering regional energy integration. After intense negotiations, For the less developed regions, including Asia, international agreements are struck to curb Africa and Latin America, WEC regional findings greenhouse gas emissions and eradicate energy show that greater cooperation and integration poverty, although tensions persist. offers the best
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