AFRICA GROWTH INITIATIVE WORKING PAPER 12 | JUNE 2013 A GenerAl equilibrium model for AnAlyzinG AfricAn rurAl subsistence economies And An AfricAn Green revolution John W. McArthur and Jeffrey D. Sachs John W. McArthur is a senior fellow with the U.N. Foundation and the Fung Global Institute, and a nonresident senior fellow in Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution. Jeffrey D. Sachs is director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Abstract: How can foreign aid support economic growth in Africa? This paper presents a geographically indexed general equilibrium model that enables green revolution—focused macroeconomic analysis in low-income African settings. The model is flexible to parameterization and highlights the role of farmers’ constraints to self-financing of inputs alongside minimum subsistence consumption requirements. It includes particular attention to the challenge of soil productivity and to the effects of official development assistance (ODA) for agricultural inputs and road building. Uganda is used as an illustrative case. The economy’s labor force is predominantly still located in rural areas and remains overwhelmingly focused on staple food production. Under plausible economy-wide parameters, a foreign- financed green revolution package shows a clear anti-Dutch disease result, in which the temporary boost in tar- geted ODA yields permanent productivity and welfare effects at relatively low cost. Acknowledgements: The corresponding author is John W. McArthur who can be reached at
[email protected]. The authors thank Christopher Adam, Mwangi Kimenyi, Oliver Morrissey, John Page, Francis Teal, participants in the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative seminar, and participants in the Oxford Centre for the Study of African Economies annual conference for helpful comments and discussions during various stages of this research.