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The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative: Towards and Beyond the 2015 NPT Review Conference by Tom Sauer the NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative

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The NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative: Towards and Beyond the 2015 NPT Review Conference by Tom Sauer the NPT and the Humanitarian Initiative Deep Cuts Working Paper No. 5, April 2015 THE NPT AND THE HUMANITARIAN INITIATIVE: TOWARDS AND BEYOND THE 2015 NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE by Tom Sauer THE NPT AND THE HUMANITARIAN INITIATIVE Introduction The existing nuclear non-proliferation and weapon states, at least for the time being, as disarmament regime, which was designed in they already carried out a nuclear explosion the 1960s and 1970s, has certainly its merits. before 1967. There is a general consensus that The lack of serious engagement on behalf of the NPT has raised the bar against further the nuclear weapon states (NWS) to elimi- proliferation, together with other non-prolif- nate their nuclear weapons, as required by eration mechanisms such as coercion by the the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), superpowers, the International Atomic Energy however, is more and more being criticized Agency (IAEA), informal rules, and norms.2 by the non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS). Their patience is running out of steam, and, The NPT, however, has also limits. If a crucially, they have found leverage in the country is really determined to go nuclear, it If a country is really de- form of the so-called humanitarian initiative, can build nuclear weapons in secret and at a termined to go nuclear, including the prospect of banning nuclear certain point in time announce its withdrawal it can build nuclear weapons. The upcoming five-yearly NPT from the treaty, just as North Korea did in weapons in secret and Review Conference - from 27 April to 22 2003. If this example is followed by other at a certain point in May 2015 in New York - will be a test of states (e.g. Iran), it will undoubtedly jeopar- time announce its with- the strength of the humanitarian initiative as dize the treaty. Another flaw in the treaty is drawal from the NPT, well as an indication whether the NWS have that the acquisition of large civilian nuclear just as North Korea did understood the message. (including enrichment and reprocessing) in 2003. facilities is in principle allowed, but once a This paper wants to find out to what extent country has acquired such facilities building the NPT and the humanitarian initiative are the bomb is relatively easy. complimentary, and aims to assess this new narrative in view of the upcoming Most significantly, the NPT is discriminatory NPT Review Conference. as it makes a distinction between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states. The last group The Nuclear Non-Proliferation only agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons on Treaty anno 2015 two conditions: one, that they would not be blocked from acquiring civilian nuclear facili- The spread of nuclear weapons to more and ties and could get support in this regard (Art. more states (let alone non-state actors) is 4); and secondly, that the nuclear weapon generally regarded as a threat to international states promised to get rid of nuclear weapons peace and security. The NPT entered into (Art. 6). Without this deal, there would not force in 1970 after Ireland had taken the have been a treaty. Article 6 reads: initiative in 1958, later on supported by the former superpowers. ‘Each of the parties to the treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective The NPT aims to prevent the further spread measures relating to cessation of the nuclear of nuclear weapons to more countries, and arms race at an early date and to nuclear is still the cornerstone of the overall nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and non-proliferation regime. In terms of mem- complete disarmament under strict and effec- bership, it is one of the most successful treaties tive control.’ ever. All states in the world, except Israel, Paki- stan and India, signed up in the end.1 That is Arguably the biggest lacuna in the text is the remarkable because they had to promise never lack of a deadline with respect to nuclear to build nuclear weapons. Only the United disarmament. Article 6 requires the parties States, the USSR, the United Kingdom, to start up two nuclear disarmament negotia- France, and China were recognized as nuclear tions: one to stop the nuclear arms race and Page 2 THE NPT AND THE HUMANITARIAN INITIATIVE Vienna Hofburg Palace where the third conference on the humaniatrian impact of nuclear weapons took place in 2014. Copyright: Tomas 1111. another to eliminate nuclear weapons. Quan- ously. Many NNWS feel deeply disrespected titatively speaking, the arms race has been in this regard. This frustration is reaching halted. But the remaining ones - still 18,000 a point where the issue is seen in terms of on earth - are constantly being modernized. injustice.3 The United States alone is planning to mod- ernize its nuclear weapons arsenal for $1,000 These grievances are regularly uttered by the billion over the next 30 years. Whether the NNWS, for instance at the five-yearly NPT first part of Article 6 is fulfilled is therefore Review Conferences. The NNWS succeeded in debatable. A similar evaluation applies to the convincing the NWS to adopt ‘13 steps’ at the second part: the NWS claim that nuclear Review Conference in 2000 as well as an action The nuclear weapon negotiations with respect to nuclear disar- plan including 22 disarmament actions ten years states have neither mament have been held. That is correct to later. These steps or actions, however, are not initiated multilateral 4 the extent that there have been bilateral arms implemented, or only to a very limited extent. negotiations with the reduction negotiations between the United Sometimes, like in 2005, the Review Confer- aim of eliminating all States and the USSR (and later on Russia). ence completely fails due to a lack of consensus nuclear weapons, and However, these negotiations had not elimi- between the NNWS and the NWS, predomi- they are still unwilling. nation as its immediate focus, while that is nantly on the issue of nuclear disarmament. required by the treaty. The NWS have nei- ther initiated multilateral negotiations with The current nuclear disarmament crisis, however, the aim of eliminating all nuclear weapons, runs even deeper. Also other multilateral arms and they are still unwilling. control institutions seem to have grinded to a halt. Take for instance the UN Conference on The bottom-line is that a very large group Disarmament (CD) that in the past succeeded of parties under the treaty believe that the in negotiating the Chemical Weapons Conven- NWS are not fulfilling their nuclear disar- tion (1993) and the CTBT (1996). Since the mament obligations under the treaty, while end of the 1990s, however, the CD has not been at the same time they themselves do fulfil able to discuss substantial matters as the parties their obligations. They claim that the nuclear were not even able to agree on an agenda. In arms reductions have been far too little and short, nuclear disarmament is at an impasse, and far too late, that the NWS keep hanging on as a result the overall nuclear non-proliferation to their nuclear weapons and that they do regime is in crisis.5 The humanitarian initiative is not take the goal of nuclear elimination seri- a direct answer to this impasse. Page 3 THE NPT AND THE HUMANITARIAN INITIATIVE Hiroshima ground zero. Between 70,000 and 80,000 inhabitants of the city died immediately because of the bombing. Copyright: Neale Cousland. 6 The humanitarian initiative was basically neglected during the Cold War. Nuclear weapons are not supposed to be used Crises are challenges. New ideas come up, the (if the rules of the nuclear deterrence game are best are picked up and gain support. The idea followed) but that does not mean that they will of a nuclear weapons ban, as part of the larger not be used. As former Secretary of Defence humanitarian initiative, is such a promising Robert McNamara warned: ‚The indefinite idea. The Austrian delegation warned already combination of nuclear weapons and human at the NPT Review Conference in 2010: ‚If fallibility will lead to the destruction of na- there is no clear progress towards “global zero”, tions‘.9 we will discuss with parties the feasibility of a global instrument to ban these weapons. The The humanitarian initiative therefore asks the NPT remains the cornerstone of the interna- fundamental question what will be the conse- tional nuclear nonproliferation regime. But a quences if these weapons will be used again, be static regime that has lost its vision may ben- it in an authorized, unauthorized or accidental Characteristic of the 7 efit from fresh ideas.‘ Alexander Kmentt, the way. Recent studies reveal that the nuclear humanitarian initiative Austrian official in charge of nuclear disarma- winter theories of the past were not incorrect. is that it focuses on the ment, repeated later on: ‚the tactics of playing For instance, the use by India and Pakistan of question whether and for time [by the NWS]...will not work for 50 nuclear weapons each, which is only a frac- how societies can cope 8 much longer‘. The alternative that is proposed tion of the existing arsenals worldwide, would with the consequences is the humanitarian initiative. lower the temperatures on earth to the extent of the use of nuclear that hundreds of millions (up to 1 to 2 billion weapons, a question Characteristic of the humanitarian initiative people) could die of starvation as less food that was basically 10 is that it focuses on the question whether and (like rice) would be available. Even the use of neglected during the how societies can cope with the consequences just one modern nuclear weapon would have Cold War.
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