U.S. AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION The Sanctions Game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change By Anthony H. Cordesman, Bradley Bosserman, Jordan D’Amato, and Andrew C. Gagel October 06, 2011 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
[email protected] Chapter IV. The Sanctions Game October 06, 2011 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report finds that the US and Iran compete in three key civil areas—energy, arms control, and regime change. Both sides harbor both legitimate and exaggerated grievances that have reinforced a long, historic, and mutual distrust, which now affects every aspect of US-Iranian competition. While most of the competition in these areas plays out in political and diplomatic circles, mainly in the form of US-led efforts at imposing international sanctions and Iranian attempts to counter them, this competition cannot be separated from its military dynamics. In fact, Iran‘s search for nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, military buildup in the Gulf, overt threats towards Israel, and ties to Syria and extremists in the Levant are all key reasons for US efforts to counter with sanctions and to encourage regime change in Iran. These patterns of civil and military competition play out on a country-by-country basis and differ by sub-region. There are, however, broad patterns in civil competition between the US and Iran that helps shape what has become a much broader and constantly mutating game of three- dimensional chess. Sanctions and Diplomacy US and international sanctions and related diplomatic efforts have become key tools across the entire US- Iranian spectrum of competition.