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Weerdesteijn Rationality 12-12-2016 THE RATIONALITY OF DICTATORS A commercial edition of this dissertation will be published by Intersentia under ISBN 978-1-78068-443-7. THE RATIONALITY OF DICTATORS Towards a more effective implementation of the responsibility to protect Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan Tilburg University op gezag van de rector magnifi cus, prof. dr. E.H.L. Aarts, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van een door het college voor promoties aangewezen commissie in de aula van de Universiteit op maandag 12 december 2016 om 14.00 uur door Maartje Weerdesteijn geboren op 16 september 1984 te Veldhoven Promotiecommissie Promotores: Prof. dr. A.L. Smeulers Prof. mr. T. Kooijmans Overige leden van de promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. A.J. Bellamy Prof. mr. M.S. Groenhuijsen Prof. dr. S. Parmentier Prof. dr. N.M. Rajkovic Prof. dr. W.G. Werner ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Having the opportunity to write this book has been a privilege and I would like to express my appreciation to Tilburg Law School for making this research possible. Furthermore, I would like to thank my supervisors. Th ere have been many people who have infl uenced and inspired me academically, but none more so than Alette Smeulers. I feel fortunate to have had such a phenomenal researcher, gift ed lecturer and above all kind and compassionate person as my supervisor. You always believed in me, you allowed me to believe in myself and I cannot tell you how much this meant to me. Th ank you for only strengthening my love and enthusiasm for the fi eld, for your invaluable comments on my research and for all the advice you have given me throughout the years. Tijs Kooijmans once famously said in his inaugural lecture ‘Dit is mijn zaak’ (2011). Th ank you for making it your zaak, task at hand, to provide me with insights and guidance. Your involvement enhanced the quality of my PhD and opened my eyes repeatedly to a new perspective. I am very appreciative of the fact that you always made time for me, and thankful for all the questions you posed, and answers you gave. I looked forward to each and every day I worked at Tilburg University and this is also due to the lovely colleagues I have had the pleasure to work with. Th ank you for all the laughter and support. I would also like to thank my former colleagues at Griffi th University, Australia who graciously welcomed me in their midst as a visiting scholar. From the day I started there, I felt as though I was part of your team and am so grateful for all your comments and feedback on my work. Stephen, I cannot thank you enough for providing me with the opportunity to come to Australia and thoroughly enjoyed working with you on our article. In addition, I would like to thank everyone who has made the time to comment on my work, whether it be in a brainstorm session, by reading a chapter or through feedback when I presented my research. Of course, I would like to thank the reading committee in particular: professors Alex Bellamy, Marc Intersentia v Acknowledgements Groenhuijsen, Stephan Parmentier, Nikolas Raijkovic and Wouter Werner. Th e comments I received have truly enhanced the quality of the book. My dear paranimfen: thank you so much for everything. Barbora, you are an amazing scholar, and above all, a great friend. Th ank you for always being there for me and for all our discussions that stem from a love and passion for the fi eld that, considering its gruesome nature, not everyone can relate to. Marlijn, we have come a long way from our shared offi ce at the VU. Th is is what we always wanted, and now, here we are, published authors. Th roughout it all, I came to admire you for the beautiful person that you are and feel blessed for being able to share this journey with you. I would also like to thank my friends and family. Th ank you for all the faith you had in me, and all the love you gave me. Last but not least: Martijn thank you for always being supportive. For encouraging me to realize my dreams and to pursue my passion. I love you now and always. To the next generation, to Daniël who has my heart, may the world you grow up in be a safer and more peaceful one. Tilburg, September 2016 vi Intersentia CONTENTS Acknowledgements . v Chapter 1. Introduction . 1 1.1. Introduction and research question . 1 1.2. Th e rational dictator as a decision maker . 4 1.3. Methodology and scope of the research . 6 1.3.1. Ideal type typology based on the work of Max Weber . 7 1.3.2. Most similar case study design . 8 1.3.3. Generalizability . 10 1.4. Terminology . 11 1.5. Towards a more eff ective implementation of the responsibility to protect . 12 1.6. Conclusion: outline of the book . 12 PART I. THE THEORY Chapter 2. Th e World of the Dictator . 17 2.1. Introduction . 17 2.2. Terminology and types . 18 2.2.1. Conceptual confusion: dictators and dictatorships . 19 2.2.2. Typologies of dictatorships . 26 2.2.3. Typologies of dictators . 33 2.3. Th eir domestic policy: how they maintain power . 35 2.3.1. A façade of legitimacy . 37 2.3.2. Co-optation and buying loyalty . 39 2.3.3. Repression and violence . 41 2.4. Th eir foreign policy: dictators in the world . 43 2.4.1. Diplomacy . 44 2.4.2. Economic sanctions . 46 2.4.3. Military intervention and war . 48 2.4.4. Positive engagement . 49 Intersentia vii Contents 2.5. Pitfalls of policy . 51 2.6. Conclusion . 52 Chapter 3. Mass Atrocities and the Role of the Dictator . 55 3.1. Introduction . 55 3.2. Causes of mass atrocities . 56 3.2.1. A non-democratic system of government . 57 3.2.2. Cultural enemies: having a history of violence . 60 3.2.3. Diffi cult life conditions: economic or political crises and war . 61 3.3. Th e role of the dictator: manipulating the preconditions . 63 3.3.1. Transforming history: creating enemies . 64 3.3.2. Seizing the moment: diffi cult life conditions . 68 3.4. Th e role of the dictator: setting up the institutions . 69 3.4.1. Mass movements . 70 3.4.2. Creating specialized killing units . 71 3.5. Conclusion . 73 Chapter 4. Preventing and Stopping Mass Atrocities: the Responsibility to Protect . 75 4.1. Introduction . 75 4.2. Sovereignty . 77 4.3. Atrocity crimes and the United Nations . 83 4.4. Evolving duties to protect human rights . 86 4.5. Th e responsibility to protect . 89 4.5.1. Th e ICISS Report . 90 4.5.2. Development of R2P . 93 4.5.3. Legal status . 99 4.5.4. Challenges for implementation . 109 4.6. Conclusion . 113 Chapter 5. Th e Interaction between States and Heads of State: the Role of Rationality . 115 5.1. Introduction . 115 5.2. International relations and foreign policy analysis . 117 5.3. Rational choice . 121 5.4. Th e bounds and limitations of the rational unitary actor model . 126 5.4.1. Domestic factors and foreign policy . 126 5.4.2. Th e infl uence of organizations and groups on decision-making . 128 5.4.3. Simplifying a complex world . 129 viii Intersentia Contents 5.4.4. Perceptions of losses and gains . 133 5.4.5. Emotions and irrationality . 134 5.5. Th e dictator as a rational unitary actor? . 138 5.6. Leadership and personality of autocratic and democratic leaders . 141 5.7. Conclusion . 143 Chapter 6. Diff erent Kinds of Rationality: Th e Work of Max Weber . 145 6.1. Introduction . 145 6.2. Rationality in the work of Weber . 146 6.2.1. Rational social action: instrumental rationality and value rationality . 149 6.2.2. Weber and rational choice . 155 6.2.3. Non-rational and irrational social action: aff ective and traditional action . ..
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