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Western Cape's Election Hangover — Bob Mattes

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Western Cape's Election Hangover — Bob Mattes FREE SUPPLEMENT INSIDE: WOMEN'S RIGHTS & THE 94 ELECTION A ^Ek^ WIP96 • APRIL/MAY 19 Have they got what it 1A ikes to I erail OdemocracyR ? WIP 96 • Contents WORLD BRIEFS 4 PERSONALLY SPEAKING 6 Jay Naidoo ELECTION WATCH 8 The Western Cape's election hangover — Bob Mattes COVER STORY: THE SPOILERS 10 • When push comes to shove — Hein Marais 3 • The main manne — Jan Taljaard • The Inkatha factor — Gerry Mare & Georgina Hamilton THE BULLET • Who you gonna call? — John Seiler OR THE BALLOT? RECONSTRUCT SUPPLEMENT If the white right-wing doesn't get you, Inkatha Focus on regional government probably will... As South African voters sharpen their INTERNATIONAL 23 pencils, WIP's contributors probe the potential for Angola: Dances with wolves derailing democracy — David Coetzee The Spoilers — Pages 10 to 22 DOCUMENT 26 Thank you world — Albie Sachs JAY NAIDOO DEBATE 27 South Africa's goalkeeping trade unionist gives you an The ANC: Is there life after the election? inside look at what he's taking to parliament Personally Speaking LEFT ALIVE 31 — Pages 6 & 7 Unity of the Left: Taps before Trotsky — Jeremy Cronin DEBATE 34 CAPE Taking the gap — Fareed Abdullah OF DEBATE 36 Raking it in: Consultants in the transition STORMS — Daniel Nina It's time to professionalise The ANC's holding — Graham Bloch thumbs that it can take the Western LAND 41 Cape — but the Feeding the land-hungry polls show they — Estelle Randall don't have much hope LETTERS 43 Election Watch LEFT BEHIND 44 — Pages8&9 FHota one MUCH APRIL/MAY 1994 THE ELECTION HMSSSSSSHM Natal holds "In Natal, we may need an equally want to be left atone. high security presence. The alternative "A significant number of chiefs its breath is to have as many visible people as are not very enthusiastic about rebuild­ possible and a well-controlled rapid ing ihe IFP in their areas. This puts WHATEVER THE POLITICANS DECIDE. deployment force. Such a force would more pressure on warlords to go into Natal is in for a bumpy ride between have to act effectively and ruthlessly such areas to do the work. Chiefs arc in now and April 27. the first time violence arises." an invidious position and (he tribal Because the situation is both fluid chief structure is likely to collapse and violent, it is difficult to predict If people want to vote, they gradually. exactly what will happen — particular­ will "The third trend is the large ly as, at the time of writing, Inkatha Aitchison said there were useful lessons amounts of guns available — and, relat­ was still insisting it would not take part to be learned from Ihe recent elections ed to this, the increase in massacre in the election, and there were new rev­ in Pakistan and Kampuchea. "In Pak­ attacks. In 1988 and 1989, there was elations about state involvement in sup­ istan, the military anticipated trouble real shock when a family was mur­ plying it with weapons. spots and had forces ready lo go in. In dered. Traditionally, this wasn't done. IFP participation in the poll would Kampuchea, the lesson was that if peo­ nor were children the targets. definitely lift tension in the province. ple want to vote they will do so, regard­ "The reason for the change could For a starl, the electoral code would less." be a considerable breakdown in social force all panics in the province to exer­ Aitchison says he has identified norms, orchestrated attempts to sew cise tighter control over supporters who three main trends in the violence in the fear or groups of psyched-out killers. use violence to disrupt opposition cam­ Midlands. Possibly, it's happening became of ;i paigns. "The first trend, present over the mixture of all these", he said. But election-related violence is last five years, is one where the vio­ unlikely to disappear. In a province lence has rippled outwards from Pieter­ Send In the troops which has lived with extensive vio­ maritzburg. It first hit urban Pietermar­ But what options are there for contain­ lence for almost a decade, the Tight to itzburg, then moved into the city's ing the violence? ANC official John win votes is likely to be a bloody one. periphery, then rural towns, such as Jeffrey says his organisation is hoping Mooi River, Estcourt, Wembezi and the TEC subcouncil on law and order Protection Richmond. It then moved northwards will be of help. Voters going to the estimated 1 100 and is now hitting denser areas of rural "We want to use the TEC to force voting stations in Natal are going to KwaZulu — particularly tribal areas, the police to act — to ensure the elec­ need protection. In the Midlands, scene such as Ntambanana, Bcrgvillc, Swayi- tion is free and fair. of some of the worst violence, there manc and Applcbosch. "We also want the police to speed­ will be about 260 voting stations — "To some extent the violence has ily investigate cases of violence and, most of them outside Pietermaritzburg been suppressed in northern Natal -— where appropriate, oppose bail." city. The Independent Forum for Elec­ it's a repressive area historically. But A significant development in the tion Education's coordinator for the the violence has resurfaced in province could be Ihe establishment of region, Lynette Archer, said there Madadcni (an IFP stronghold). a regional inspectorate, with the power would be one monitor and three Osizwcni (more ANC), Ezakhcni and lo investigate and monitor all police observers at each voting station on Stcadville. agencies and liaise with them. election day. "A second trend is that when the The inspectorate is likely to con­ A key problem, however, will be IFP is pushed, it relics increasingly on sist of at least three people, one of the security forces' ability to deal with tribal figures to hold ground. In places whom would be a civilian, the others violence. such as Undcrberg. Mpcndle and Bulw- drawn from ihe police. The inspectorate The National Peacekeeping Force, er, Inkatha is trying to rebuild its sup­ would include an independent com­ for example, has insufficient staff to port structures. And it's going to chiefs plaints mechanism, under civilian con­ provide protection throughout the for this. trol, and be responsible for receiving province. As veteran peace monitor "But a lot of chiefs arc now wor­ and investigating complaints from the John Aitchcson points out: "In the ried about whether it's a gocxl idea to public about police misconduct. Gaza Strip, the Israelis work on (he align themselves with the IFP or any Jeffrey said the ANC would also principle of one soldier every 100m lo political party. They've seen the be using the IEC. It has already asked control the area. destructive effects of violence and they for an IEC investigation into the recent 2 * APRIL/MAY 1994 briefs THE ELECTION No room for losers THEME COULD BE A LOT OF SURPRISED — ind angry — people in the Western Cape once the election results arc announced. A poll by Marketing and Opinion Surveys (MOS) found a startling num­ ber of voters expect their respective parties to win elections for the province's regional assembly. The MOS survey, carried out in February, found unrcalistically high expectations — particularly among supporters of tiny parties, many of which have armed components. Some might choose to react violently to the news that their panics fared poorly. • NO-HOPERS: Polls show the National Party will take the Western The MOS poll shows, for Cape — but Its supporters aren't quite as optimistic instance, that 91% of Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC) supporters expect the Interestingly, Democratic Party more realistic expectations arc nurtured party to either win or do very well in and Conservative Party supporters in rapidly about election prospects, there the election. However, no poll to date the Western Cape seem most resigned arc going to be a lot of unhappy, frus­ lias shown PAC support levels higher to also-ran status. trated (and possibly dangerous) people than 13% in the province. A mere 34% of supporters of the on Ihe morning of May L • Fully 71% of ANC supporters National Parly — the front-runner in expect the party to triumph — an — Bob Mattes the Western Cape — expect the party to • There's more about the Western increasingly unlikely prospect if recent win. Cape's election outlook in Election surveys arc to be trusted. The lesson, though, is that unless Watch on pgges 8&9 The MOS poll asked supporters whether they think their party would: ANC NP DP CP IFP FA AWB PAC Wh Bl Col • Win the largest number of votes 71 34 13 0 0 14 39 SO 16 63 42 • Do very well and be one of the largest parties 21 47 23 44 28 57 31 41 48 25 27 Not be one of the largest parties but still win a good many votes 4 7 40 44 39 0 8 3 20 5 5 • Get few votes In the election 0 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 4 0 0 incidenl at Mpcndlc, when the ANC Accord structures is that they are volun­ But there's an additional problem, was prevented from organising a Peo­ tary. They depend on the individuals as John Aitcheson points out. ple's Forum. and parties they represent being com­ He says (here is genuine concern "The difference between the IEC mitted to peace." thai even if ihe IFP does take part in the and the Peace Accord is that the IEC Jeffrey referred to the recent arrest election, there will be violence when the has teeth", Jeffrey said.
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