Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation

ClatsopRegional and Tillamook Framework Counties for Climate Adaptation Jeffrey A. Weber Oregon Coastal ClatsopManagement Program and Tillamook Counties

February 2015 Project Management Team Jeffrey Weber, Climate Change Specialist and Coastal Conservation Coordinator, Oregon Coastal Management Program, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development

Joe Cone, Assistant Director and Communications Leader, Oregon Sea Grant

Project Researchers, Assistants, and Facilitators Oregon Sea Grant: Patrick Corcoran, Monty Johnson, Miriah Kelly, and Kirsten Winters Climate Impacts Research Consortium and Oregon Sea Grant: John Stevenson

Acknowledgments This regional framework could not have materialized without the assistance, support, and expertise of the project assistants and facilitators at Oregon Sea Grant and the Climate Impacts Research Consortium.

Several people reviewed preliminary versions of material originally developed in the work groups and provided detailed suggestions for important revisions. The framework has been improved considerably by assistance from Alyssa Mucken, Rachel Lovellford, Dave Jepsen, Dave Fox, Geoff Crook, Kevin Cupples, Rosemary Johnson, Brendon Haggerty, Emily York, Margaret Matter, Judith Callens, Steve Lucker, and Laren Woolley.

Principal author: Jeffrey A. Weber, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development; with contributions from Miriah RKelly, John Stevenson, and Joe Cone.

Contributing editor: Joe Cone, Oregon Sea Grant.

Copyediting, design, and layout: Rick Cooper, Oregon Sea Grant.

Development of Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation for Clatsop and Tillamook Counties was supported in part with funding to the Oregon Coastal Management Program from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office for Coastal Management, under the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, adminis- tered by NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management.

The participation of Oregon Sea Grant was enabled under award number NA10OAR4170059 (project number A/CC-18) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Sea Grant College Program, U.S. Department of Commerce, and by appropriations made by the Oregon State Legislature.

The participation of the Climate Impacts Research Consortium was enabled under award number NA10OAR4310218 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program, U.S. Department of Commerce, and Oregon State University Extension Service. The state- ments, findings, conclusions, and recommendations herein do not necessarily reflect the views of these funders.

Cover photograph of the Necanicum Estuary by J. Weber.

A digital version of this publication is available at www.climateadaptationplanning.net Participating organizations This Regional Framework was developed with the expertise, support, and assistance of participants from numerous federal and state agencies, local governments, and non-governmental organizations:

Local governments Astoria Nehalem Tillamook County Cannon Beach Tillamook Clatsop County Seaside CREST Non-governmental organizations The Nature Conservancy Columbia Land Trust Wild Salmon Center Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Tillamook Bay Community College Lower Nehalem Trust Oregon state agencies Land Conservation and Development Geology and Mineral Industries Governor’s Natural Resources Office Oregon Health Authority Agriculture Parks and Recreation Fish and Wildlife Transportation Forestry Water Resources State Lands Environmental Quality Federal agencies NOAA Fisheries U.S. Geological Survey National Weather Service National Park Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Bureau of Land Management Natural Resources Conservation Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Environmental Protection Agency Federal Emergency Management Agency Universities and institutes Oregon Sea Grant Conservation Biology Institute Oregon Climate Change Research Institute Institute for Natural Resources Climate Impacts Research Consortium Oregon State University

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 3 Contents

Executive Summary...... 5 Synopsis: How to Use This Framework...... 7 Starting Point: Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework...... 9 Effects of Climate Change in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties...... 11 Priority Climate Risks in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties...... 13 Management Objectives for Adaptation...... 14 Implementing the Management Objectives...... 18 Implementing the Infrastructure Management Objectives...... 19 Implementing the Public Health and Safety Management Objectives...... 22 Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives...... 25 Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives...... 31 Follow Through: Endorsement and Implementation...... 36

Appendices

Appendix I...... 43 A. Why Develop a Regional Framework for Adaptation?...... 44 B. Framework Process: From Climate Risks to Adaptation Actions...... 46 C. Possible Consequences of Future Climate Conditions ...... 48 1. In the watersheds: Coupling stress and fire to project forest change...... 48 2. Rivers and streams: Effects of climate change on aquatic systems in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties...... 49 3. Ocean and coastal systems: Erosion and flood hazards on the north coast due to changing climate ...... 50 D. Presentations and Materials Used in Developing the Regional Framework...... 54 References...... 56 Appendix II (Under separate cover and available online at http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/OCMP/pages/publications.aspx) Summary of Climate Adaptation Work Agencies and Organizations Working in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

4 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

Executive Summary

Climate change is a landscape-scale agencies, local governments, and objective for each management problem that calls for landscape-scale non-governmental organizations to regime is solutions. This regional framework a series of three meetings to identify Infrastructure: Manage risks is a proof-of-concept to implement priority climate risks for the region, to infrastructure from flooding, Ca risk-based and landscape-scale management objectives to address wildfire, and changes in stream approach to planning for changes in those risks, and mechanisms and ac- hydrology and ocean water levels Oregon’s climate and the effects of tions to implement the management to ensure safe, reliable services those changes on resources, assets, objectives. Most of the framework Public health and safety: Reduce and communities in Clatsop and was developed by four work groups, risks of illness, injury, death, and Tillamook Counties on the north which were organized around man- property damage from flooding, coast of Oregon. agement regimes for infrastructure, wildfire, and heat events. public health and safety, natural This regional framework is designed systems, and working lands. Natural systems: Develop and to help communities, land managers, implement coordinated man- and people in Clatsop and Tillamook agement strategies that enhance, Counties identify and revise policies, Climate change is a landscape- protect, and restore high-quality standards, criteria, and management scale problem that calls for and important habitats to mitigate practices that may underestimate landscape-scale solutions. the effects of higher temperatures, risks to people, property, resources, changes in hydrology, and changes and infrastructure from future in ocean chemistry and water climate conditions. Underestimating Priority climate risks and manage- levels. risk can result in unanticipated costs ment objectives to address those Working lands: Manage the use to individuals and communities. risks are at the center of the frame- of working lands to sustain pro- work. Priority climate risks identified This framework builds on Oregon’s duction of food and fiber (forest, for Clatsop and Tillamook Counties state-level Climate Change farm, and fishing activities) with are: Adaptation Framework. It is based on projected changes in average an overview of downscaled climate • Sea-level rise and coastal erosion temperatures, precipitation, and projections specific to the region and • Increased flooding stream hydrology. expert presentations about the effects • Changes in hydrology Each of these overarching objectives of projected changes on natural is expanded upon with a set of systems in Clatsop and Tillamook • Increased forest fires more-detailed objectives. In all, Counties. By emphasizing the climate • Increased average temperatures the framework contains almost science that applies to the region, the After identifying the priority risks fifty management objectives for framework will help communities for the region, the work groups adaptation, and implementation focus on real risks. developed a set of management mechanisms and suggested actions To develop the regional framework, objectives for adaptation to address to achieve each objective. the Oregon Coastal Management the anticipated effects of the priority The next phase in developing and Program (OCMP) and Oregon Sea risks within each management re- implementing the framework will Grant (OSG) invited federal and state gime. The overarching management

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 5 rely on endorsement and support by to identify key actions and lead actors or “low-hanging fruit,” among the the agencies and communities that for each of the adaptation objectives. suggested actions, and to identify have management responsibilities champions or lead entities for prior- The management objectives state in northwest Oregon. These are the ity management objectives. what needs to be done, and the same entities that developed the implementation mechanisms suggest This regional framework is not a framework. At the practical level, the how the objectives can be achieved; plan. A plan would contain detailed next step is to continue regional-level but no entity has continuing commitments and clear mechanisms collaboration to resolve conflicts, oversight or dedicated resources to for their implementation. The if possible, between some of the ensure the objectives actually get im- regional framework is a starting adaptation objectives. Development plemented. A mechanism is needed point. In time, the experience of of this framework highlights a at the regional level to foster overall implementing the framework, and gap in our current structures for implementation of the framework. refining, updating, and adapting it governance for addressing import- An important action in implement- as warranted, would lead to distinct ant—some would say critically ing the framework will be to consider public benefits in collectively important—landscape-scale issues establishing a regional ad-hoc body preparing for and responding to the such as climate change. Finally, to or intergovernmental mechanism to effects of a changing climate on the continue the momentum behind this oversee its implementation. The first north Oregon coast. That would be a framework, an important task will be task that the team should take on success worth striving for. would be to identify priority actions,

6 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Synopsis: How to Use this Framework

This regional framework represents and consequences of future climate Climate change associated with an ambitious proof-of-concept conditions. increases in global surface tempera- designed to provide an efficient, tures is forcing communities and This framework was developed to practical, landscape- and risk-based managers to review assumptions that inform decisions. It is intended to Tapproach to local climate change underlie a broad suite of climate-sen- provide a new and useful context for adaptation planning. It is the out- sitive decisions. The purpose of decisions that will affect how people, come of an approach to adaptation this framework is to help identify communities, and organizations planning that is distinctly different climate-sensitive decisions so they respond to future climate conditions. from an approach based on climate can be revised as necessary to reduce More specifically, it is intended to change “vulnerability assessments.” the consequences and costs of future help reorient policies, standards, It represents a bottom-up, collabo- climate risks. criteria, and management prac- rative, objective-driven approach to tices—referred to collectively in this The basic challenge of adapting to adaptation planning that ultimately framework as decisions—that reflect climate change is that climate-sen- focuses on decisions that affect com- assumptions about future climate sitive decisions may not accurately munities and natural systems. This reflect likely future conditions. They project arose in discussions with may underestimate the risks to Oregon Sea Grant, whose survey re- “Climate-sensitive” decisions people, property, resources, and search in 2008 and 2012 (An Analysis infrastructure from climate-related of a Survey of Oregon Coast are decisions that reflect conditions and events such as floods, Decision Makers Regarding Climate assumptions about future drought, wildfire, and ocean water Change and Working Group climate conditions. levels. Underestimating risk can re- Considers Effects of a Changing sult in unanticipated costs to individ- Climate: A Report to the Port Orford uals and communities. Ultimately, Community, respectively) revealed conditions. In this framework, such well-considered adaptation will save that for a range of reasons, adapta- decisions are called climate-sensitive communities money. tion planning has been slow to gain decisions. Climate-sensitive decisions momentum in Oregon’s coastal are decisions about the management The framework consists of three 1 communities. It was designed in and use of land and other resources elements: part to address some of the factors that incorporate information or • Priority climate risks for Clatsop that contribute to putting off local reflect assumptions about future and Tillamook Counties action to address climate change. climate conditions. Climate sensi- And development of the proof-of- tivity occurs within a broad range • Management objectives for climate concept has been tracked in research of decisions that affect communities adaptation undertaken by Sea Grant, described and the use of land and resources, • Actions to achieve the adaptation in a companion report. from the development of policies and objectives regulations to conducting activities The overarching purpose of this on the land. Assumptions about The most important element in the framework is to improve the ability climate are incorporated throughout framework consists of a set of man- of communities, land managers, and the laws, policies, plans, customs, agement objectives for climate adap- people in Clatsop and Tillamook practices, standards, and criteria tation. These management objectives Counties to take actions and make that influence how land and natural indicate what should or can be done decisions that will reduce the risks resources are used. Implicitly or to reduce the costs and consequences explicitly, climate is a basic factor in of priority climate risks in Clatsop 1 See Appendix A, “Why Develop a Re- and Tillamook Counties. Objectives gional Framework for Adaptation?” countless decisions.

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 7 are laid out for infrastructure, This framework provides only a Team involves several state agencies public health and safety, natural starting point. It will be important to that have a stake in the management systems, and working lands. They maintain momentum and continue objectives for adaptation. are designed to inform the review collaboration as discussed below. Finally, the framework should of various management plans and There may be a unique opportunity be continually revised as climate other mechanisms and criteria for to use Oregon’s Regional Solutions projections and information about decisions. Such mechanisms include framework for community prob- landscape responses to future climate land use plans, transportation plans, lem-solving to implement some of conditions become available. watershed restoration plans, natural the objectives in this framework. hazard management plans, and so The North Coast Regional Solutions on.

8 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Starting Point: Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework

The first task in adaptation planning • In 2010, the Oregon Climate of climate change on natural systems is to get a clear idea of what scientific Change Research Institute in northwest Oregon. information is relevant to the area published the Oregon Climate In conjunction with the release of the under consideration, since infor- Assessment Report (OCAR),4 Oregon Climate Assessment Report, Tmation about climate change that is which summarized (1) the scien- Oregon released the Oregon Climate readily available may not accurately tific knowledge available at the Change Adaptation Framework,5 reflect conditions in a particular time about changes in climate that which provides a foundation for place. Much of the climate informa- are likely to affect Oregon, and adaptation at the regional and local tion available online, for instance, (2) the effects of those changes on levels in Oregon. Among other describes change and consequences different resources and systems in things, the framework lays out a at a very broad scale; some of it may the coming decades. not be detailed enough to use for series of eleven “climate risks” that planning in a specific place. are expected to affect the state in the The first task in adaptation next few decades. These risks, listed Four of the most valuable sources of planning is to get a clear idea in Table 1 below, represent changes information on climate change: in climate and natural system condi- of what scientific information • The Intergovernmental Panel on tions that Oregon agencies, commu- is relevant to the area under Climate Change (IPCC) publishes nities, organizations, businesses, and climate assessment reports that consideration. citizens likely will have to address in are the best information available the coming decades. about change at the global scale. As powerful and informative as these The eleven climate risks outlined in The most recent assessment, the resources are, they provide only a Oregon’s Adaptation Framework pro- Fifth Assessment Report, was pub- broad context for local planning vide a starting point for regional and lished in 2013 and 2014.2 for climate change. Planning at the local climate adaptation planning. • The United States’ National scale of a hydrologic unit, watershed, Since Oregon is such a large and Climate Assessment provides region, county, or community geologically, climatologically, and information about change at the requires more-detailed information. ecologically diverse state, different national and regional scales, and The next section contains a summary regions will experience these risks— for various sectors in the United of information about climate change or not—in varying degrees. That is, States. The Assessment released in and the effects of climate change in northwest Oregon will experience 2014 contains a chapter on climate Clatsop and Tillamook Counties that the eleven risks in a somewhat differ- change in the Northwest. was used as the foundation for this ent mix and degree from other areas • The material compiled for Regional Framework. Appendix I of the state. For some of the risks, the Northwest chapter for the contains more detail about the effects the differences may be dramatic. National Climate Assessment pro- For example, changes in stream hydrology will be more pronounced vided the basis for a more in-depth and Communities. Washington D.C.: http://occri.net/wp-content/ assessment published in 2013, Island Press. in watersheds where the hydrology uploads/2013/11/ClimateChangeInThe- Climate Change in the Northwest, Northwest.pdf 5 Oregon Department of Land Conser- Implications for Our Landscapes, 4 Oregon Climate Change Research Insti- vation and Development (2010), Oregon Waters, and Communities3 tute (2010). Oregon Climate Assessment Climate Change Adaptation Framework. Report. K. D. Dello and P. W. Mote (eds). Department of Land Conservation and 2 See http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sci- Development, Salem, OR. Available http://www.oregon.gov/energy/ 3 Dalton, M., P. Mote, and A. Snover (eds). ences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, at http://www.occri.net/ GBLWRM/docs/Framework_Final_DLCD. 2013. Climate Change in the Northwest, OR. Available at reports pdf Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters,

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 9 is dominated by spring snowmelt Table 1. Climate risks in the Oregon Climate Adaptation than in coastal watersheds, where Framework snowfall is not normally a significant Increase in average annual air temperatures, and likelihood of extreme hydrologic factor. Ultimately, the 1. heat events (HEAT) state-level Framework is not suffi- Changes in hydrology and water supply; reduced snowpack and water ciently detailed for local adaptation 2. availability in some basins; changes in water quality and timing of water planning. It provides context, but in availability (HYDRO) order to make progress in adaptation 3. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensity (FIRE) planning, the state framework needs Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes in ocean to be scaled down to the regional, 4. watershed, or local level. chemistry and increased ocean acidification (OCEAN) 5. Increased incidence of drought (DROUGHT) One of the basic ideas behind this Increased coastal erosion and risk of inundation from increasing sea lev- proof-of-concept is to focus local 6. els and increasing wave heights and storm surges (SLR) adaptation planning on the reliable Changes in the abundance and geographical distributions of plant spe- science that applies specifically to 7. cies and habitats for aquatic and terrestrial wildlife (HAB) the planning area. The intention is Increase in diseases, invasive species, and insect, animal, and plant pests to rely on the applicable science to 8. (ILL) identify which of the eleven risks in the state framework are priority 9. Loss of wetland ecosystems and services (WET) risks for Clatsop and Tillamook Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and incidence and 10. Counties. The next section provides magnitude of damaging floods (FLOOD) a summary of the available scientific 11. Increased incidence of landslides (SLIDE) knowledge about future climate con- ditions and their effects on natural systems in northwest Oregon.

10 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Effects of Climate Change in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

Most of the risks outlined in the state Projections of likely climate and extreme precipitation events framework might at some point af- climate-related landscape changes (more than 2 inches per day), but fect Clatsop and Tillamook Counties, include: decrease in summer (Sharp et al. but it is very likely that only a few of • Yearly average temperature is 2013, Mantua et al. 2010). Mthem represent the greatest threat expected to increase between 3 and • Fire disturbance is expected to Effects of Climate Change of damage or loss to the region. This 4.5°F by mid-century and between increase regionally, but it is less regional framework is based asin muchClatsop 4 and 7.5°F byand late-century Tillamook in understoodCounties how this may change as possible on downscaled climate Tillamook County (see Figure 1). in Oregon’s more-temperate Most of the risks outlinedprojections specific in the to thestate region framework and (Sharp might et al. 2013). at some point affectcoastal forests, Clatsop where andfire has been expert presentations about the effects Tillamook Counties, but it is very likely that •only Yearly a average few precipitationof them mayrepresent rare the (Dalton greatest et al. 2013). threat of projected changes on natural increase between 1 and 5 percent • Sea surface temperatures are of damage or loss tosystems the in region. Clatsop and This Tillamook regional framework is based as much as possible on above historical average (ibid.) expected to increase between 2 Counties. Outlines of the presen- downscaled climate projections specific to the regionand thisand increase expert is likely presentations to occur and 3°Fabout by mid-century the effects (Mote and tations are included in Appendix I, predominantly during winter Salathe 2010). of projected changesand the on complete natural presentations systems are in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. Outlines of the months, while summer months presentations are includedavailable online in.6 Appendix I, and the complete presentations• Ocean are pH available is expected to decline 6 will be drier than average (Sharp et to approximately 7.8, a 150 percent Climate projections and assessments online. al. 2013). change from pre-industrial levels are readily available at the global, • Stream flows may increase during (Tillman and Siemann 2011; Feely Climate projectionscontinental, and and regional scales, winter with more-frequent et al. 2009). assessments are readilybut they available generally are notat detailed enough to provide a reliable founda- the global, continental,tion for andplanning regional at the local level. scales, but they generallyTo provide arethe foundation not for this regional framework, the Oregon detailed enough toClimate provide Change a Research Institute reliable foundation(OCCRI) for planning provided an atoverview the local level. To provideof projected changes the in climate in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties, foundation for thisbased regional in part on projections de- framework, the Oregonveloped roughly Climate for the Tillamook Bay watersheds (Sharp et al. 2013). Change Research InstituteThe Climate Impacts Research (OCCRI) providedConsortium an overview (CIRC) provided of a projected changes summaryin climate of climate in changes and landscape responses, drawing on Clatsop and Tillamookseveral otherCounties, research reports, listed based in part on projectionsbelow. developed roughly for the Tillamook Bay watersheds6 http://www.climateadaptationplanning. (Sharp Figure 1. Projected change in mean temperature in west Tillamook County (from et al. 2013). The Climatenet/alignment/ Impacts FigureOCCRI presentation).1. Projected change in mean temperature in west Research Consortium (CIRC) provided a Tillamook County (from OCCRI presentation). summary of climate changes and landscape responses, drawing on several other research reports, listed below.Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 11 Projections of likely climate and climate-related landscape changes include: • Yearly average temperature is expected to increase between 3 and 4.5°F by mid- century and between 4 and 7.5°F by late-century in Tillamook County (see Figure 1). (Sharp et al. 2013). • Yearly average precipitation may increase between 1 and 5 percent above historical average (ibid.) and this increase is likely to occur predominantly during winter months, while summer months will be drier than average (Sharp et al. 2013). • Stream flows may increase during winter with more-frequent extreme precipitation events (more than 2 inches per day), but decrease in summer (Sharp et al. 2013, Mantua et al. 2010). • Fire disturbance is expected to increase regionally, but it is less understood how this may change in Oregon’s more-temperate coastal forests, where fire has been rare (Dalton et al. 2013).

6 http://www.climateadaptationplanning.net/alignment/

5 • Sea levels on the central Oregon Communities. Washington, D.C.: Mote P., and E. Salathé. 2010. Future coast may increase by up to 19 Island Press. climate in the Pacific Northwest. inches by mid-century (Reeder et Feely, R., S. Doney, and S. Cooley. Climatic Change 102(1):29–50. al. 2013). Increasing wave heights 2009. Ocean acidification: present Reeder, S., P. Ruggiero, S. Shaffer, and local tectonics will also conditions and futures changes in A. Snover, L. Houston, P. Glick, influence local water levels on the a high CO2 world. Oceanography J. Newton, and S. Capalbo. north coast (Méndez et al. 2010). 22(4):36–47. 2013. Coasts: Complex Changes • Coastal wetlands will experience Glick, P., J. Clough, and B. Nunley. Affecting the Northwest’s Diverse increasing salinity in estuarine 2007. Sea-level rise and coastal Shorelines. In Climate Change systems and push existing coastal habitats in the Pacific Northwest. in the Northwest, Implications plant and animal communities National Wildlife Federation, for Our Landscapes, Waters, and inland (Tillman and Sieman Seattle, WA. Communities. Washington, D.C.: 2011).7 Island Press. Hickey, B., and N. Banas. 2003. • Human health risk will increase Oceanography of the U.S. Pacific Scavia, D., J. Field, D. Boesch, from extreme climate-related Northwest coastal ocean and es- R. Buddemeier, V. Burkett, D. hazards such as winter flooding, tuaries with application of coastal Cayan, M. Fogarty, M Harwell, R. and erosion events (Dalton et al. ecology. Estuaries 26(4):1010–1031. Howarth, C. Mason, D. Reed, T. 2013). Higher ocean and estuarine Royer, A. Sallenger, and J. Titus. temperatures may also increase Littell, J., E. O’Neil, D. McKenzie, J. 2002. Climate change impacts on the number of Vibrio parahaemo- Hicke, J. Lutz, R. Norheim, and U.S. coastal and marine ecosys- lyticus infections from eating raw M. Elsner. 2010. Forest ecosys- tems. Estuaries 25(2):149–164. tems, disturbance, and climatic oysters or other shellfish (Bethal et Sharp, D., K. Dello, D. Rupp, P. Mote, al. 2013). change in Washington state, USA. Climatic Change 102:129–158. and R. Calmer. 2013. Climate • The coastal economy will be change in the Tillamook Bay wa- affected as climate impacts ecosys- Littell, J., M. Elsner, G. Mauger, tershed. Oregon Climate Change tem services that support indus- E. Lutz, A. Hamlet, and E. Research Institute, Corvallis, OR. tries such as fisheries and tourism. Salathé. 2011. Regional Climate Available at http://www.tbnep. Sea levels will also impact seaport, and Hydrologic Change in the org/reports-publications/cli- municipal and private coastal in- Northern US Rockies and Pacific mate-change-in-tillamook-bay-wa- Northwest: Internally Consistent frastructure, with limited options tershed-769.pdf [last accessed 26 Projection of Future Climate for alternative transportation March 2015]. (Dalton et al. 2013). for Resource Management. Project Report for USFS JVA Tillman, P., and D. Siemann. 2011. 09-11015600-039. Climate change effects and adap- References for Summary tation approaches in freshwater Méndez, F. J., C. Izaguirre, M. of Climate Projections aquatic and riparian ecosystems Menéndez, B. G. Regeuro, and I. J. Bethel, J., S. Ranzoni, and S. of the North Pacific Landscape Losada. 2010. Is the extreme wave Capalbo. 2013. Human Health: Conservation Cooperative climate in the NE Pacific increas- Impacts and Adaptation. In region: A compilation of scientific ing? Proceedings from Oceans Climate Change in the Northwest, literature. Final Report. National 2010, MTS/IEEE, Seattle, WA. Implications for Our Landscapes, Wildlife Federation, Pacific Waters, and Communities. Mantua, N., I. Tohver, and A. Region. Seattle, WA. Available Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Hamlet. 2009. Climate change at: http://www.nwf.org/~/media/ Dalton, M., P. Mote, and A. Snover impacts on streamflow extremes PDFs/Global-Warming/2014/ (eds.). 2013. Climate Change in and summertime stream tem- Freshwater-Report/NPLCC_ the Northwest, Implications for perature and their possible con- Freshwater_Climate-Effects_Final. Our Landscapes, Waters, and sequences for freshwater habitat pdf [last accessed 26 March 2015]. in Washington State. Climatic 7 Verbatim, or nearly so. Change 102(1):187–223.

12 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Priority Climate Risks in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

After reviewing the available science about climate change and the effects Table 2. Priority climate risks for Clatsop and Tillamook Counties of projected changes on the region, - the next step in developing the re- gional framework was to identify the Climate risks ture

A lands safety

priority risks—the climate risks that Natural systems Working Working Health and are likely to account for the majority Infra-struc of potential damage and risk to Sea-level rise and increased coastal ero- X X people, property, infrastructure, and sion (SLR) resources in Clatsop and Tillamook Increased storm water; increased flooding; Counties. changes in flood intensity and frequency; X X X Most of the collaborative effort to increased erosion and sedimentation (FLOOD) develop this framework was done by four work groups, organized accord- Decline in late-season streamflow; drier conditions; reduced rainfall; changes in ing to different management regimes. hydrology, including decreased summer X X X Management regimes represent precipitation, reduced base flows, broad categories of public policy con- increased seasonal extremes of rivers cern, and thus encompass numerous (HYDRO) laws, priorities, and programs. The Increased forest fires, including an management regimes were for infra- increase in air-quality and associated X X X structure, public health and safety, health problems; safety (FIRE) natural systems, and working lands. Each work group was comprised state framework will not affect The list of priority risks does not of experts, professional staff, and northwest Oregon. The priority risks represent any kind of ranking. They agency officials who work in that are primarily intended to clarify are all important. And clearly, pri- particular management regime. where agencies, communities, and ority risks will change over time and people should focus their initial from place to place. Sea-level rise, for The work groups identified which of efforts to prepare for future climate example, will be a priority risk for the eleven risks in the state frame- conditions. Most of the risks laid out an oceanfront city, whereas habitat work are the highest priority for their in the state framework that weren’t change or wildfire might be a prior- management regime in Clatsop and identified as priorities in northwest ity for a watershed council or state Tillamook Counties. The results of Oregon—habitat changes, wetland agency working in the same area. the work groups’ collaboration to losses, landslides, and so on—will identify priority risks are shown in affect the region. Those risks still Ultimately, the priority risks pro- Table 2. need to be addressed by agencies and vided the foundation for developing communities. management objectives for adapta- The selection of priority risks does tion and preparation. not mean that other risks in the

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 13 Management Objectives for Adaptation

Once the work groups identified all entities of a similar kind—that decisions. Implementation mecha- priority climate risks, the next is, to all water supply districts, not nisms and actions for these objectives task was to develop management just water district x; to all local land are listed in the following section. objectives for adaptation, which are use plans, not just city y’s land use Note that because of time and resource also referred to as adaptation objec- plan. In other words, the adaptation O limitations, these objectives have not tives. These adaptation objectives objectives are intended to apply at a been reviewed as a whole; at this point, are intended to be landscape-scale broader landscape scale than to any they remain distinct sets. In a subse- objectives that can be implemented single specific location or entity. quent phase of developing the regional largely through mechanisms that The adaptation objectives for each framework, all the objectives should are already in place, like land use management regime are listed below. be reviewed together to identify con- planning, forest management plans, These objectives are the central flicting and complementary objectives, habitat restoration plans, capital element of the framework. They are and then adjusted where possible to improvement plans, and the like. intended to inform the review of prior- produce a comprehensive, integrated These management objectives for ities, criteria, standards, and outcomes set of climate change adaptation objec- adaptation are intended to apply to of a broad range of climate-sensitive tives for the region.

Infrastructure management objectives for adaptation IN-1. Manage risks to infrastructure from flooding, wildfire, and changes in stream hydrology and ocean water levels to ensure safe, reliable services IN-2. Identify areas subject to flooding, sea-level rise, and wildfire IN-3. Assess risks to infrastructure assets in areas subject to flooding, sea-level rise, and wildfire under likely future climate conditions or scenarios IN-4. Protect, modify, replace, move, or abandon existing infrastructure at risk of damage from climate-related hazard events IN-5. Guide future infrastructure development away from areas of risk IN-6. Revise standards and practices for infrastructure planning, design, construction, and maintenance to reflect likely future climate conditions IN-7. Develop and implement watershed and water system management strategies and practices that can ensure sufficient year-round water supply IN-8. Ensure that water system management practices designed to mitigate the effects of changes in temperature and hydrology do not adversely impact natural systems IN-9. Collaborate across management regimes to identify and implement management objectives, practices, and projects for infrastructure that also support management objectives for health and safety, natural systems, and working lands

14 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Public health and safety management objectives for adaptation HS-1. Reduce risks of illness, injury, death, and property damage from flooding, wildfire, and heat events HS-2. Identify infrastructure needed for access to food, water, and health care, and protect against climate-related conditions HS-3. Reduce risk of illness, injury, death, and property damage from floods, wildfire, coastal erosion, and climate-related ocean inundation HS-4. Identify, support, and coordinate public health and emergency services necessary to respond to climate-related hazard events HS-5. Improve the efficiency and management of water supply systems to reduce demand and increase supplies in periods of low streamflows HS-6. Revise standards for stormwater infrastructure to reflect projected precipitation extremes through the end of the expected service life of facilities HS-7. Foster improved public understanding of climate-related health and safety risks HS-8. Ensure that natural hazards mitigation plans and public health and emergency services plans address the needs of underserved and disadvantaged community members HS-9. Identify adaptation objectives, practices, and projects for health and safety that also support objectives for infrastructure, natural systems, and working lands HS-10. Improve the capacity of local health offices to respond to climate-related health risks

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 15 Natural systems management objectives for adaptation NS-1. Develop and implement coordinated management strategies that enhance, protect, and restore high-quality and important habitats, to mitigate the effects of higher temperatures, changes in hydrology, and changes in ocean chemistry and water levels Aquatic habitats NS-2. Implement watershed management projects and practices to improve streamflows in periods of low rainfall NS-3. Identify, prioritize, and protect instream flows in key watersheds and cold water streams to sustain viable native fish populations. NS-4. Manage watershed resources, features, and uses to reduce surface water temperatures, especially in periods of low flow NS-5. Ensure that water system management practices designed to mitigate the effects of low streamflows and changes in hydrology do not adversely impact natural systems NS-6. Implement sediment management measures where needed to mitigate the effects of forest fires and forest management practices Habitat fragmentation and loss NS-7. Protect and restore large areas of high-quality, less-fragmented habitats for fish and wildlife, to mitigate the effects of changes in hydrology, temperature, and ocean water levels on habitats NS-8. Restore natural sediment regimes and other stream temperature controls in Coast Range watersheds NS-9. Restore the functional connectivity between aquatic systems and floodplains and riparian areas Estuarine and marine resources NS-10. Restore carefully selected former tidelands to estuarine influence by active removal of dikes, levees, and tidegates (or create setback levees) to provide greater flood storage capacity and other ecosystem services NS-11. Manage shorelands to provide for changes in the location of coastal shorelines and shorelands in response to rising ocean water levels NS-12. Manage estuarine and coastal shoreland habitats and natural systems to mitigate the effects of higher temperatures, changes in hydrology, and changing ocean water levels NS-13. Decrease stressors on fish stocks by improving water quality and adjusting harvests NS-14. Protect marine and estuarine functions and features (such as eelgrass beds) that mitigate changes in ocean pH NS-15. Collaborate across management regimes to identify natural system functions and services that support management objectives for infrastructure, health and safety, and working lands

16 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Working lands management objectives for adaptation WL-1. Manage the use of working lands to sustain production of food and fiber (forest, farm, and fishing activities) with projected changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and stream hydrology Erosion, sedimentation, and water temperatures WL-2. Protect and restore watershed resources and functions that regulate sedimentation and stream temperatures WL-3. Implement management practices for working lands that sustain ecosystem services and watershed functions necessary to recover from disturbances WL-4. Revise logging practices on steep slopes to reduce the effects of logging on landslides WL-5. Minimize erosion and sedimentation from construction sites WL-6. Minimize soil loss through erosion from agricultural lands Increased risk of wildfires WL-7. Assess the effects of Coast Range forest and land management practices on future fire risk, and evaluate whether changes are needed to reduce future fire risk WL-8. Improve the resilience of forested watershed communities to fire by increasing the diversity of forest species used in reforestation WL-9. Implement practices to reduce wildfire risk from development adjacent to forested working lands Changes in hydrology: Reduced base flows, increased seasonal extremes of rivers WL-10. Develop and implement watershed and water system management strategies and practices to mitigate the effects of higher temperatures and lower summer flows on water supplies and aquatic habitats WL-11. Maintain anadromous fish migration and spawning habitats under likely future hydrologic regimes WL-12. Minimize the effects of urbanization on water quality and hydrologic patterns WL-13. Engage and provide information to working land managers about climate variability to improve their understanding of and ability to implement adaptation actions WL-14. Identify adaptation objectives, practices, and projects for working lands that also support objectives for infrastructure, public health and safety, and natural systems

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 17 Implementing the Management Objectives

Four tables on the following pages each management objective, several The lists of Implementation present a compilation of ideas on implementation mechanisms and Mechanisms in these tables are how to achieve the management implementation actions are listed. not exhaustive. Implementation objectives for adaptation in Clatsop Implementation mechanisms are a mechanisms are any processes that Fand Tillamook Counties. They reflect critical element of this framework. involve climate-sensitive policies, the collaboration of the four work They are any planning, management, standards, criteria, and practices. groups representing different man- Implementation mechanisms are the agement regimes. Each management way by which the adaptation objec- regime represents an area of expertise The most important next tives can be translated into conditions and responsibility within which the step for implementing the on the ground. effects of climate change will need framework will be to undertake The possible implementation actions to be addressed and managed: infra- are a preliminary set of possible tasks, structure, public health and safety, a review of the objectives. projects, initiatives, or steps that can natural systems, and working lands. be taken to achieve the objectives. The The tables contain the following or decision framework at the local, actions listed for each objective vary elements: state, or federal level that can be used in scope and detail, and, like the im- Management Objectives for to implement or achieve an objective. plementation mechanisms, the listed Adaptation. Each table contains Examples of implementation mecha- actions in these tables is not meant to a set of objectives for adapting to nisms include: be exhaustive. climate variability and change for a • Federal and state natural resource The contents of these tables will particular management regime. The management plans and programs evolve over time, especially if the pro- work groups were encouraged to • Infrastructure system master fessional community that developed focus on climate-related issues at the plans, operations, and maintenance the framework continues to collabo- landscape scale—that is, to identify practices rate across management regimes. As desired conditions to be achieved noted earlier, the most important next across the region, rather than in a • Special district management plans step for implementing the framework specific location. and operations will be to undertake a review of the • Comprehensive land use plans While the objectives are referred to objectives for all four management as “management objectives for adap- • Zoning ordinances regimes, to identify similarities—so- tation” and “adaptation objectives,” • Forest management plans called co-benefits—and objectives they are properly understood as ob- that may represent challenges to the • Stormwater management programs jectives for the management regime mission or objectives for another in addressing the effects of climate • Estuary and wetland restoration management regime. variability and change in Clatsop and plans The first objective in each table is an Tillamook Counties. • Land division ordinances overarching management objective Note that the boundaries between • Building codes for that management regime. These management regimes are not hard • Transportation plans overarching objectives establish and fast. This is reflected by a handful the overall context for, and would • Natural hazard mitigation plans of similar objectives across the tables. be achieved through, the rest of the • Watershed restoration and man- objectives in each table, so they do Implementation Mechanisms agement plans not have implementation mechanisms and Implementation Actions. For and actions.

18 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Infrastructure Management Objectives Implementing the Infrastructure Management Objectives Infrastructure Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives IN-1. Manage risks to infrastructure from flooding, wildfire, and changes in stream hydrology and ocean water levels to ensure safe, reliable services IN-2. Identify areas . Natural Hazard Mitigation Plans (to . Collaborate with climate and other subject to flooding, help identify location and magnitude specialists to generate scenarios of sea-level rise, and of future climate-related risks) likely future conditions related to flood, wildfire . Natural hazard elements in local sea levels, and wildfire comprehensive land use plans . Use GIS to display and distribute data . Statewide Planning Goal 7 for Natural and information on the location and Hazards, Goal 17 for Coastal extent of areas subject to climate- Shorelands, and Goal 18 for Beaches related risks and Dunes IN-3. Assess risks to . Capital improvement plans and . Develop data, information, and other infrastructure assets system master plans for managing technical assistance to support risk in areas subject to infrastructure assessments for transportation and flooding, sea-level . Infrastructure vulnerability other infrastructure systems rise, and wildfire assessments . Develop methodologies to evaluate under likely future . Local natural hazard mitigation plans climate risks to infrastructure assets climate conditions or . Transportation improvement plans . Inventory infrastructure exposure to scenarios flooding, wildfire, and ocean water levels . Review existing capital-improvement plans, master plans for infrastructure systems, and information on infrastructure vulnerability, and revise plans to factor in climate change where appropriate . Assess the risks from flooding, wildfire, and ocean water levels on current and planned infrastructure investments . Identify infrastructure assets subject to damage from flooding, sea-level rise, and wildfire . Establish best practices for monitoring risks based on asset types IN-4. Protect, . Capital improvement plans and . Develop a decision matrix to lay out modify, replace, system master plans for managing management options under specific move, or abandon infrastructure scenarios or thresholds (e.g., protect existing . Local natural hazard mitigation plans and maintain asset, increase infrastructure at risk . Detour planning redundancy, relocate asset, etc.) of damage from . Adopt interagency agreements to . Prioritize infrastructure assets at risk climate-related formalize detour route status, from climate-related conditions to hazard events function, and agency roles during protect, modify, move, or abandon hazard events . Identify where system redundancies . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and and risk transfer (i.e., insurance) may be economical and prudent strategies to

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 19 Implementing the Infrastructure Management Objectives continued

Infrastructure Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives implementation funds maintain system functions . Identify funding for local infrastructure improvements to reduce risk of damage or loss . Convene a regional task force to identify funding options for regionally important infrastructure improvements to address climate risks . Identify beneficial infrastructure redundancies . Assess vulnerability of infrastructure assets . Designate detour routes in vulnerable corridors where needed IN-5. Guide future . Land use planning and zoning . Clearly identify areas at risk from infrastructure . Buildable lands inventories climate-related hazards in inventories development away . Urban Growth Management plans and maps used for land use planning and managing infrastructure systems from areas of risk . Local natural hazard mitigation plans . Consider restricting development in . Conservation easements areas of known climate risk . Property acquisition and relocation . Incorporate information about future climate risks into infrastructure master plans . Prohibit redevelopment of areas at risk from climate-related hazards as infrastructure relocation occurs . Provide the best available scientific information on climate-related impacts to the public, businesses, local governments, and others to support informed decisions about development in identified areas of climate risk IN-6. Revise . State and local natural hazards . Identify climate-related factors, standards and management plans standards, and criteria in asset practices for . Local land use plans, zoning planning, design, construction, and infrastructure ordinances and land division maintenance decisions, and revise as planning, design, ordinances necessary construction, and . Infrastructure design standards . Support continued improvement in the maintenance to . Best practices manuals and planning accuracy of “downscaled” climate reflect likely future guidelines projections, which are more appropriate for local adaptation climate conditions . Integrated asset-management tools planning than projections from Global (data and mapping systems) Circulation Models . Compile and utilize credible information about future climate- related conditions at the appropriate (regional) scale

20 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Infrastructure Management Objectives continued

Infrastructure Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives . Acquire data on design events based on regional-scale climate projections . Support continued improvement in the ability to translate climate projections into descriptions of likely watershed and landscape conditions (floods, sea- level rise, fire, hydrologic changes) IN-7. Develop and . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and . Compile and utilize credible implement implementation funds information about future climate- watershed and . Domestic water-supply-system related conditions at the appropriate water-system master plans (regional) scale management . Water-supply-system maintenance . Promote management practices that strategies and . Watershed restoration plans enhance water retention in watersheds practices that can . Water conservation plans . Promote water conservation and ensure sufficient reduced use to avoid unnecessary year-round water waste and consumption supply IN-8. Ensure that . A Regional Adaptation Agreement, . Establish a regional mechanism to water-system Charter, or other mechanism to consult across management regimes on management implement this framework (see IN-9) major infrastructure projects practices designed to . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and mitigate the effects implementation funds of changes in . Stewardship plans, forest temperature and management plans, forest land- hydrology do not management certifications adversely impact . Habitat restoration projects natural systems IN-9. Collaborate . A Regional Adaptation Agreement, . Solicit support from regional leaders across management Charter, or other mechanism to and convene a regional leadership regimes to identify implement this framework team to oversee implementation of the and implement regional framework management . Develop a mechanism for continued objectives, practices, expert consultation across and projects for management regimes on priority infrastructure that climate risks also support management objectives for health and safety, natural systems, and working lands

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 21 Implementing the Public Health and Safety Management ObjectivesImplementing the Public Health and Safety Management Objectives Health and safety Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives HS-1. Reduce risks of illness, injury, death, and property damage from flooding, wildfire, and heat events HS-2. Identify . Local natural hazard management . Ensure that infrastructure needed to infrastructure plans protect public health and safety is needed for access to . Local emergency management plans addressed in the adaptation objectives food, water, and . Transportation system master plans for infrastructure health care, and . Incorporate information about change protect against in climate-related events into climate-related emergency management plans conditions . Establish regional emergency management framework and oversight group HS-3. Reduce risk of . Local comprehensive land use plans . Inventory and map developed and illness, injury, death, and implementing ordinances developable areas that are subject to and property . Local flood hazard zone and floods, wildfire, coastal erosion, and damage from floods, development standards for flood climate-related ocean inundation wildfire, coastal hazard areas . Integrate information about future erosion, and climate- . Local coastal erosion overlay zone climate conditions into local natural related ocean and development standards for hazard mitigation plans inundation erosion areas . Align flood hazard mitigation planning . Local emergency evacuation plans activities with emerging FEMA . Emergency management plans guidance to require consideration of climate impacts in mitigation planning . Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) . Implement Statewide Planning Goal 7 for all climate-related natural hazards . State and local natural hazard mitigation plans . Integrate DOGAMI coastal erosion risk zone maps into local comprehensive . Statewide Planning Goals 7 for Areas plans and implementing measures for Subject to Natural Hazards and 18 for coastal erosion Beaches and Dunes . Update local natural hazard mitigation . FEMA’s RiskMAP, Community Rating plans to address future climate-related System, and National Flood Insurance risks Programs . Integrate updated natural hazard . State building codes mitigation strategies into local land use . Model ordinances for natural hazards plans and regulations . Conservation easements . Prohibit or restrict development in . Property acquisition and relocation areas subject to future climate risks . Review building and zoning codes to determine whether they should be revised to reflect risks from climate- related hazards . Encourage local adoption of building code requirements that exceed the National Flood Insurance Program standards

22 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Public Health and Safety Management Objectives continued

Health and safety Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives . Retrofit existing buildings to reduce exposure to floods HS-4. Identify, . Local emergency management plans . Review emergency management plans support, and . Regional emergency services plan to identify gaps and overlaps in services coordinate public . Mutual support agreements needed to respond to climate-related health and hazards emergency services . Develop a regional plan for necessary to respond coordinating emergency services to climate-related . Ensure continuity of care following hazard events hazard events . Ensure stable funding for local emergency management services and public health departments to address climate risks . Identify potential funding sources for emergency management services such as tax, percentage of court fines, grants, etc. HS-5. Improve the . Water Management and . Adopt water conservation measures to efficiency and Conservation Plans (WMCPs) address constrained summer stream management of . Water-supply-system maintenance flows water-supply practices . Promote water conservation systems to reduce . Watershed restoration plans . Reduce water losses through system demand and increase . Forest management plans leakage supplies in periods of . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and . Factor projected changes in low streamflows implementation funds temperature and precipitation into water-supply plans . Encourage landscaping with drought- tolerant plants HS-6. Revise . Local land use and land division . Develop reliable, regional-scale standards for regulations projections of precipitation extremes stormwater . Stormwater management plans and . Incorporate projections for extreme infrastructure to design standards events into local stormwater system reflect projected . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and design standards and erosion control precipitation implementation funds measures extremes through . Encourage the integration of the end of the ecosystem services and “green expected service life infrastructure” into infrastructure of facilities management plans HS-7. Foster . Public health outreach and education . Develop guidance for health care improved public programs providers regarding climate-related understanding of . Public Service Announcements health concerns climate-related . CDC and Oregon Health Authority . Develop and distribute information and health and safety communication toolkits educational materials about climate risks . Curriculum development risks and how individuals can be better prepared for climate-related events and . Triennial reviews of Environmental conditions

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 23 Implementing the Public Health and Safety Management Objectives continued

Health and safety Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives Health and Communicable Diseases . Find funding to communicate about programs risks associated with climate change . State Public Health Communications Unit operations HS-8. Ensure that . Local natural hazard mitigation plans . Collaborate with vulnerable natural hazards . Community social vulnerability populations to understand their needs mitigation plans and assessments . Partner with disadvantaged public health and populations and include them in emergency services decision-making plans address the needs of underserved and disadvantaged community members HS-9. Identify . A Regional Adaptation Agreement, . Establish a regional network to share adaptation Charter, or other mechanism to adaptation-related ideas, information, objectives, practices, implement this framework and resources, promote policies, and and projects for . Regional Solutions Plan and project initiate pilot projects health and safety review . Establish a mechanism for continued that also support expert consultation on priority climate objectives for risks across management regimes infrastructure, natural systems, and working lands HS-10. Improve the . Participate in Oregon’s syndromic . Assess local health department capacity of local surveillance system (ESSENCE) to capacity to detect, report, and assess health offices to capture data on emerging health vector-borne diseases respond to climate- concerns in real time . Identify local susceptibility to likely related health risks . CDC’s Building Resilience Against vector-borne diseases and other public Climate Effects (BRACE) program health impacts of changing climate conditions . Access and use tools from the state Climate and Health Program . Identify potential vector-borne diseases and carriers; assess change in risk related to climate change . Research ways to reduce carriers and/or counteract potential diseases . Implement existing disease outbreak response protocols at state and local health departments . Monitor incidence of heat-related illness . Monitor mental health impacts

24 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives NS-1. Develop coordinated management strategies that enhance, protect, and restore high-quality and important habitats to mitigate the effects of higher temperatures, changes in hydrology, and changes in ocean chemistry and water levels Aquatic Habitats NS-2. Implement Protection mechanisms . Develop an appropriately scaled policy watershed . DSL Removal/Fill review process and funding framework for watershed- management . Forest management plans scale planning to use natural processes and functions to mitigate projected projects and practices . TMDL development and implementa- changes in climate to improve tion under the Clean Water Act streamflows in §303(d) . Reestablish large wood production and periods of low rainfall recruitment to restore watershed . OWRD Instream Transfers and Lease functions such as floodplain Program connectivity, sediment regulation, Enhancement and incentive groundwater recharge, and hyporheic mechanisms flow . Watershed, wetland, riparian, and . Review the need for increased riparian floodplain restoration plans areas on public lands . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and . Institute water conservation measures implementation funds and practices . Water transactions/banking program . Identify, implement, and incentivize . Oregon Conservation Strategy instream voluntary water-rights . Water quality management plans and transfers and leases programs . Develop credits for larger, more- . Species recovery plans effective wetland mitigation projects . Wetland mitigation banking . Prioritize and protect instream flows for fish in key watersheds (see NS-3) NS-3. Identify, . DEQ water quality management . Develop a coordinated regulatory prioritize, and programs framework to protect cold water protect instream . Oregon’s Integrated Water Resource streams that will serve as thermal flows in key Strategy refugia watersheds and cold- . OWRD Water Rights instream transfer . Develop incentives and funding for water streams to . Watershed assessments and projects that explicitly increase riparian sustain viable native restoration plans and floodplain connectivity fish populations . USGS basin studies . Inventory and map cold water refugia . Forest management plans . Identify key cold water input streams in major coho population basins . Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds; Streamflow Restoration . Determine instream flows required to Priority Areas (ODFW/OWRD) sustain viable native fish . Install stream gauges and monitor stream flows, temperatures, and fish . Protect riparian areas . Identify problem areas and restore riparian buffers . Replace culverts that are inadequate to

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 25 Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives continued

Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives pass anticipated peak streamflows . Re-meander and reconnect streams . Identify streams and reaches that are either major nurseries or food sources for mainstem rivers and streams, and assess the need for protection under the Clean Water Act (303(d)) NS-4. Manage . Watershed assessments and . Establish comprehensive and watershed resources, restoration plans continuous riparian area protections features, and uses to . DEQ water quality management across all land uses reduce surface water programs . Restore riparian structure and function temperatures, . Water transactions/banking program to degraded streamside areas especially in periods . Forest management plans of low flow . Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds . IWRS water planning, feasibility, and implementation funds NS-5. Ensure that . Oregon’s Integrated Water Resources . Develop technical information for water system Strategy water system managers that describes management . Oregon Scenic Waterway Program the intrinsically dynamic role of practices designed to hydrology on habitat formation, flood mitigate the effects buffering, and species diversity of low streamflows . Designate instream water rights where and changes in not already established hydrology do not . Consider the effects of new water adversely impact appropriations on freshwater natural systems ecosystems . Propose new scenic waterways where needed to protect recreation, fish, and wildlife uses . Assess the effects of saltwater intrusion on habitats and other ecosystem services and develop mitigation plans as necessary NS-6. Implement . Watershed action plans . Research sediment budgets of basins sediment . Forest Practices Act susceptible to forest fire, estimate likely management . Riparian management rules geomorphic impact, and estimate likely measures where impacts on habitat needed to mitigate . Construct and test sediment dams in the effects of forest rivers with lost nick points, to retain fires and forest sediment important to habitat management formation within the river system practices Habitat fragmentation and loss NS-7. Protect and . ODFW Conservation Strategy . Develop a mechanism to protect large, restore large areas of . Forest management plans contiguous areas that currently have

26 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives continued

Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives high-quality, less- . Watershed restoration plans high-quality habitats for fish and fragmented habitats . Conservation land acquisitions and wildlife for fish and wildlife, easements . Develop incentives and funding for to mitigate the . County land use plans projects that enhance connectivity effects of changes in . Estuary and coastal shoreland between existing high-quality habitats, hydrology, management plans (Statewide or habitats that could be feasibly temperature, and Planning Goals 16 and 17) enhanced and connected ocean water levels on . Identify areas of connected, less- habitats fragmented habitats suitable for long- term protection . Map isolated habitat units and increase spatial density of good-quality habitat . Identify and map large and ecologically significant areas . Assess the need to revise common watershed management practices to mitigate the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on fish and wildlife habitats . Assess the need for buffer areas around ecologically significant areas . Protect sensitive estuarine habitats (eelgrass beds and tidal wetlands) from adverse impacts . Manage estuarine shorelands to allow for the migration of shorelines and habitats in response to sea-level rise . Modify forest harvest methods to increase the use of selective cutting . Restore former tidelands to estuarine influence and function . Identify and protect connectivity between significant habitat types and areas . Monitor habitat utilization in protected areas to ensure the “right” places are protected NS-8. Restore natural . Forest management plans . Adopt management practices to sediment regimes . Forest Practices Act restore natural sediment regimes (e.g., and other stream . Watershed Action Plans woody debris) and stream temperature controls temperature controls . Riparian and wetland conservation in Coast Range easements . Enhance forested buffers along streams watersheds and drainages . Identify areas likely to become prone to erosion or landslides under future extreme precipitation events . Decrease logging in slide-prone areas

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 27 Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives continued

Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives . Disconnect roads from stream channels (e.g., cross drains) . Investigate the use of alternative forest- harvesting techniques (e.g., thinning; reintroduction of fire for fuel reduction) to restore natural sediment regimes . Provide financial incentives (credits) to forest managers to restore sediment regimes, and assess effects . Consider wider range of genotypes in reforestation . Conduct research to determine empirical relationships between forest practices (reforestation, road building, maintenance, timber harvest, fire suppression, etc.) and sediment delivery dynamics in north coast basins NS-9. Restore the . Oregon Conservation Strategy . Map changes in flooding from functional . Watershed assessments, including projected future precipitation extremes connectivity between culvert inventories and riparian . Consider measures to protect areas aquatic systems and assessments subject to future flooding floodplains and . Forest management plans . Reconnect streams to their floodplains riparian areas . Transportation improvement plans . Identify and remove unnecessary roads . Natural hazard mitigation plans . Replace culverts and resize for . Land use plans projected future extreme flows . Restore riparian structure and function Estuarine and Marine Resources NS-10. Restore . Comprehensive land use plans, . Complete the inventory of tidegates, carefully selected especially under Goals 16 and 17 for dikes, and levees, including elevations former tidelands to Estuarine Resources and Coastal and associated former tidelands estuarine influence Shorelands . Identify dikes and levees that are through active . Natural Hazard Mitigation Plans obsolete, unnecessary, or otherwise not removal of dikes, . Watershed assessments and action necessary to protect life and property levees, and tidegates plans . Identify estuary and floodplain (or create setback . Estuary and wetland restoration plans restoration opportunities levees), to provide . Conservation land acquisitions . Develop funding mechanism for greater flood-storage restoration projects capacity and other ecosystem services NS-11. Manage . Land use plans . Identify areas likely to be inundated shorelands to . Estuary and shoreland management due to sea-level rise and total water provide for changes plans levels in the location of . Protect coastal shoreland areas to allow coastal shorelines for estuarine shoreline migration in and shorelands in response to increased frequency of response to rising ocean inundation and changing sea ocean water levels

28 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives continued

Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives levels . Identify and remove barriers (e.g., roads, dikes) to migration of estuarine shorelands and tidal wetlands NS-12. Manage . Estuary and Coastal Shoreland . Update estuary inventories and habitat estuarine and coastal management planning under assessments shoreland habitats Statewide Planning Goals 16 and 17 . Identify and protect future subtidal and and natural systems, . DSL rules for Removal/Fill and intertidal habitat (eelgrass, tidal to mitigate the waterway leasing marshes) effects of higher . Protect eelgrass beds and tidal temperatures, wetlands from adverse impacts changes in . Identify and conserve existing high- hydrology, and quality intertidal habitat, eelgrass beds, changing ocean and tidal marshes water levels . Implement practices to improve carbon sequestration by estuarine wetlands (“Blue Carbon”) . Restore former tidelands to estuarine influence by removing dikes, levees, and tidegates or creating setback levees . Develop protective measures at state level to protect current and future tidally influenced areas NS-13. Decrease . Fishery catch monitoring and fishery- . Monitor harvested fish and shellfish stressors on fish independent monitoring programs stocks to detect changes in populations stocks by improving (note: these are most useful when that might signal climate-related water quality and done on a statewide or West Coast- impacts. Use the currently established adjusting harvests wide scale) fishery-management processes to determine if/when harvest adjustments are needed to address changes in populations . Implement watershed and estuary protection and restoration measures identified in management objectives for Natural Systems enumerated above NS-14. Protect . Estuary management plans . Protect eelgrass beds and tidal marine and estuarine . Removal-Fill rules wetlands from adverse impacts functions and . Waterway leasing . Restore eelgrass beds features (such as . Restore tidal wetlands eelgrass beds) that . Establish buffers around important mitigate changes in estuarine resources, features, and ocean pH habitats

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 29 Implementing the Natural Systems Management Objectives continued

Natural systems Possible management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions objectives NS-15. Collaborate . A Regional Adaptation Agreement, . Establish a regional network to share across management Charter, or other mechanism to ideas, information, and resources, regimes to identify implement this framework promote policies, and initiate pilot natural system projects functions and . Establish a mechanism for continued services that support expert consultation across management management regimes on priority objectives for climate risks infrastructure, health and safety, and working lands

30 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives Working Lands Possible Management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions Objectives WL-1. Manage the use of working lands to sustain production of food and fiber (forest, farm, and fishing activities) with projected changes in average temperatures, precipitation, and stream hydrology Erosion, sedimentation, and water temperatures WL-2.Protect and . Agricultural Water Quality . Adopt watershed and land restore watershed Management Act (AWQMA), basin management practices to reduce resources and plans and area rules sediment delivery to streams and lower functions that . ODA strategic implementation areas surface water temperatures regulate that work toward compliance with . Protect, enhance, and restore riparian sedimentation and AWQM plans and area rules areas to reduce sediment delivery to stream temperatures . Watershed action plans streams and lower surface water . Forest management plans temperatures . Forest Practices Act . Identify other measures needed to minimize sediment delivery to streams . Oregon Plan for Salmon and and to lower surface water Watersheds temperatures . ODFW riparian lands tax incentive . Adopt a comprehensive state riparian program management policy to apply across all . Comprehensive Conservation and land uses Management Plans (CCMPs) for . Improve riparian area protections Lower Columbia and Tillamook across all land uses and management Estuaries regimes . Conservation Reserve Enhancement . Restore and enhance riparian areas Program (CREP) across all land use types and . Environmental Quality Incentives management regimes Program (EQIP) for agricultural . Provide technical assistance to activities landowners . TMDLs under the Clean Water Act . Implement and enforce existing . ODFW western Oregon stream riparian protection rules across all restoration program enforcement authorities . Local land use plans and zoning . Move from complaint-driven codes enforcement to systemic monitoring . Implement Statewide Planning Goal and enforcement using distributed 5 requirements for riparian areas and sampling protocols wetlands . Provide adequate funding capacity for monitoring and enforcement WL-3.Implement . Oregon Forest Practices Act . Implement agricultural land- and management . Agricultural Water Quality water-management practices to adapt practices for working Management Act basin plans and to increased temperatures and altered lands that sustain area rules stream flows ecosystem services . ODA Strategic Implementation Areas . Implement land management practices and watershed . Environmental Quality Incentives to reduce water demand in periods of functions necessary Program (EQIP) low streamflow to recover from . Regional Conservation Partnership . Provide technical assistance to

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 31 Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives continued

Working Lands Possible Management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions Objectives disturbances Program RCPP landowners about BMPs to achieve . TMDLs under the Clean Water Act Working Land objectives

WL-4.Revise logging . Oregon Forest Practices Act . Maintain full funding of ODF programs practices on steep . Forest management plans for implementing and monitoring OAR slopes to reduce the . Environmental Quality Incentives Divisions 623, 625, 630, 640; 527.676, effects of logging on Program (EQIP) for forest and 527.710 of the FPA. landslides management activities . Ensure full implementation of OAR . Interagency research collaborations Divisions 623, 625, 630, 640, 527.676, and 527.710 of the Forest Practices Act . Collaborate to develop a plan that involves education and incentives to adopt new practices for forest owners, managers, loggers, and consultants . Include new logging practices in EQIP- funded forest management plans . Support research that evaluates the sustainability of Coast Range forests in a changing climate . Support research to simulate landscape responses to future precipitation levels that reflect the IPCC’s full range of Representative Concentration Pathways WL-5.Minimize . Local land use plans, zoning codes, . Implement nonpoint pollution control erosion and and development regulations measures and practices to reduce sedimentation from . Coastal Nonpoint Pollution Control erosion and sedimentation associated construction sites Program (CNPCP) with construction sites . TMDLs . Provide education and technical assistance on construction-site erosion control . Adopt measures to protect water quality from development on rural and urban lands . Develop or revise local erosion-control and stormwater-management measures that integrate regional-scale climate change impacts WL-6.Minimize soil . Agricultural Water Quality . Implement agricultural land loss through erosion Management Act, basin plans, and management practices that minimize from agricultural area rules soil loss through erosion lands . Coastal Nonpoint Pollution Control . Provide education and technical Program (CNPCP) assistance on minimizing soil loss from

32 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives continued

Working Lands Possible Management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions Objectives . TMDLs under the Clean Water Act agricultural lands . Environmental Quality Incentives . Develop EQIP Conservation Program (EQIP) for forest Implementation Strategy (CIS) that management activities focuses on annual crops grown on highly erodible soils Increased risk of wildfires WL-7.Assess the . State and federal forest management . Integrate results of large wildfire effects of Coast planning processes modeling and future climate normals Range forest and land . Updates to the Westwide Wildfire (Yang et al. in prep) management Risk Assessment . Continue to validate and update large practices on future wildfire and future ignition models with fire risk, and evaluate new fire-occurrence data whether changes are . Determine how fuel characteristics needed to reduce under Coast Range and alternative future fire risk forest management regimes influence probability models of future large wildfires . Support research on forest management regimes that maximize carbon sequestration . Utilize future fire probability predictions based on RCP emissions scenarios in Fire Risk Assessments WL-8.Improve the . Environmental Quality Incentives . Implement the existing EQIP resilience of forested Program (EQIP) for forest Conservation Implementation Strategy watershed management activities (CIS) in selected parts of Clatsop communities to fire . State and federal forest management County; assess this CIS and adapt it as by increasing the planning processes needed, and extend it to priority diversity of forest . Forest Practices Act watersheds species used in . Define resilience and identify the range reforestation of desired future conditions among Coast Range forest landowners in light of future fire modeling research . Support systematic review of scientific literature related to the relationship between species composition, forest structure, and risk of wildfire in the Coast Range . Model future probability of wildfire and evaluate predictive contribution of species composition; utilize results in modeling changes in geographical distributions of forest species and habitats WL-9.Implement . Local natural hazard mitigation plans . Provide information to rural practices to reduce . Local comprehensive land use plans landowners and residents on site wildfire risk from and implementing ordinances management practices to reduce

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 33 Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives continued

Working Lands Possible Management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions Objectives development . Community Wildfire Protection Plans wildfire risk adjacent to forested . Site-development guidelines for . Conduct research that includes input working lands residential development in the and guidance from forest land Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) managers on simulating realistic/viable forest management strategies, in light of predicted changes in fire regimes Changes in hydrology: Reduced base flows, increased seasonal extremes of rivers WL-10. Develop and . Integrated Water Resources Strategy . Protect and restore wetlands and implement watershed . Forest management plans floodplains to improve watershed and water-system . Watershed Action Plans functions and soil water retention management . OWRD Water Rights instream transfer . Restore floodplains and upper strategies and watershed functions to maximize . Wetland reserve easements practices to mitigate natural soil water retention . EQIP for irrigation water efficiency the effects of higher . Identify opportunities and practices for temperatures and . TMDLs under the Clean Water Act water storage that can support habitat lower summer flows management objectives on water supplies and . Increase irrigation water efficiency and aquatic habitats allocate conserved water to instream flows . Identify practices that simultaneously increase base flows and water supplies in periods of low flow . Use water pricing and other economic incentives to reduce water use in periods of low flow . Investigate the potential effects of regionalizing water supply systems to increase water supplies during periods of low flow . Increase water storage where technically, environmentally, and financially feasible WL-11. Maintain . Watershed restoration plans . Revise standards for fish passage to anadromous fish . Oregon Plan for Salmon and maintain salmon migration under likely migration and Watersheds future hydrologic regimes spawning habitats . Identify changes in anadromous fish under likely future migration patterns and spawning hydrologic regimes habitats as they respond to changes in temperature and stream hydrology WL-12. Minimize the . Coastal Nonpoint Pollution Control . Implement urban stormwater effects of Program management standards and practices urbanization on . Stormwater design standards that reflect future precipitation regimes water quality and . City and county land division codes . Incorporate green infrastructure values hydrologic patterns and features into stormwater design standards . Reduce impervious surface areas . Utilize stormwater system designs and

34 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Implementing the Working Lands Management Objectives continued

Working Lands Possible Management Implementation mechanisms implementation actions Objectives materials that increase stormwater infiltration WL-13. Engage and . Agricultural Water Quality . Conduct outreach and provide provide information Management Act, basin plans, and technical assistance to working land to working land area rules managers about the effects of climate managers about . Soil and Water Conservation District variability and change on working climate variability, to Program for technical assistance to lands and natural systems improve their landowners . Utilize existing information resources understanding of and . ODA Water Quality website about climate variability and change ability to implement . Agricultural organizations . Work with forest land managers to adaptation actions educational outreach programs integrate contemporary fire modeling . Forest Practices Act research and analyses and to identify alternative or improved forest . Interagency research collaborations management strategies WL-14. Identify . A Regional Adaptation Agreement, . Establish a regional network to share adaptation Charter, or other mechanism to adaptation-related ideas, information, objectives, practices, implement this framework and resources, promote policies, and and projects for . Regional Solutions Plan and project initiate pilot projects working lands that review . Establish a mechanism for continued also support expert consultation on priority climate objectives for risks across management regimes infrastructure, public health and safety, and natural systems

Myriadized_tables.pdf

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 35 Follow-Through: Endorsement and Implementation

Two important initial purposes of For the framework to succeed in framework requires the approval of this proof-of-concept were for the changing conditions on the ground, those in positions of authority and participants—who were from local, it needs to be actively endorsed, responsibility within the relevant state, federal, and nongovernmental implemented, and updated as new agencies, organizations, and com- Torganizations—to learn and work information becomes available. munities. To obtain that approval, together and to co-develop a frame- These overarching considerations the participants in developing the work to align their adaptation efforts. surfaced at several points in the framework have been asked to With completion of the regional three meetings, especially as the communicate their support of the framework, continuing goals of this process was wrapping up. framework to their executives. The effort are (1) to have actions taken by idea is for agency executives to ac- appropriate parties put the frame- Strategy for tively endorse the framework in such work into practice; and (2) ultimately, Implementation a way that their commitment to it is to have such actions yield beneficial To accomplish all the goals of this communicated and the framework results on the ground for the people effort requires what can be thought objectives and actions are imple- of Oregon. of as a multi-level and multi-phase mented in concert with other agen- cies and interested parties. Agency In looking forward to implementa- implementation and communication endorsement will establish a mutual tion, it is important to stress that this strategy. It is not the intent here to support network for adaptation in regional framework is not a plan. A present all the elements or all the Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. plan would contain clear commit- detailed tactics of such a strategy, but rather to present an overall ments and mechanisms for their im- At the same time, endorsement of outline. plementation. Rather, the framework this approach to align adaptation is a springboard for revising current efforts at the regional level, based plans to achieve the adaptation It’s important to stress that this on and deriving from the risk-based objectives. The objectives need to adaptation approach laid out in regional framework is not a be integrated into a wide range of the state-level Climate Change climate-sensitive decisions that stem plan. Adaptation Framework, will prepare from plans and mechanisms that agencies to replicate the approach are already in place for managing elsewhere. This would manifest the The first level and phase come resources and assets in Clatsop and needed leadership and progress in to fruition with this report. Tillamook Counties. Most of those addressing future climate conditions Knowledgeable professionals in mechanisms are called out in the in Oregon. In the absence of any various roles and with various previous section. This emphasis other model or initiative at the fed- responsibilities for governance in on climate-sensitive decisions and eral, state, or local level, the project Clatsop and Tillamook Counties existing mechanisms deeply reflects team anticipates that this approach, have been brought together, have the idea that adapting to climate either in whole or in what others participated in, and have indicated change doesn’t automatically mean consider its most valuable parts, will their acceptance of the Regional doing new things. Rather, much be used in other parts of Oregon. Framework for Adaptation. adaptation will mean generally doing Implementation. At the practical what we’re already doing, only doing Endorsement. At the strategic level, the next step is to continue those things differently. It means, level, the next step in moving the collaboration across the two-county basically, using different criteria and framework forward is to engage region to resolve conflicts, if possible, assumptions for decisions. decision-makers to actively endorse between some of the adaptation the framework. Implementing the

36 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Key themes in the World Café The last meeting for developing the framework of mutually beneficial outcomes. Many participants involved an activity over a working lunch loosely felt that by working together, they could get people based on a “World Café” process.8 Participants more interested in climate adaptation, which could were given about an hour to write down and lead to heightened awareness among decision mak- discuss with one another needs, challenges, and ers, who in turn will eventually support funding for opportunities they saw for implementing the necessary adaptation measures. adaptation objectives in each of the management regimes. To foster cross-discipline interaction, Many participants brought up the need for public participants were encouraged to circulate through engagement in ways that suggest that engaging all four management regimes. A synthesis of the members of the public in two-way information and information collected in the World Café highlights education processes about the effects of climate key themes. change on their communities and interests would be an important element in any successful approach Funding. The challenge noted most often was to adaptation. Public engagement often requires lack of identified funding sources to implement reliable information about physical sciences, which adaptation measures. Some participants noted in some areas is lacking and must be obtained. The that there are existing conditions in the region likelihood of success can also be improved by using that are already being affected by climate drivers, sound social science to understand the perceptions, and thus already in need of funding to address. needs, and resistance to action that individuals and For example, some participants talked about the communities have in approaching climate issues need to protect existing infrastructure assets even that are relevant to them. before addressing future climate-related risks to infrastructure. Follow-Through. Several participants noted the need for and a desire to maintain momentum on Resolve. In some cases, participants felt that the adaptation in the region. Looking ahead, they political will to take on climate change preparation stressed the need to align disparate objectives and adaptation at the local level is lacking. Climate and interests represented in the four management change remains a sensitive topic in many com- regimes. While acknowledging that the regional munities, and that sensitivity can be the pretext framework is an important first step, they said that for taking little or no action. This lack of resolve more work needs to be done to resolve conflicting affects funding for adaptation. Many participants objectives between different management regimes. felt that when political will is lacking, there is little Not surprisingly, there are different opinions about they can do on their own. A lack of resolve at the what needs to be done to adapt to climate risks. state and federal levels was also noted. The willing- Several people expressed concerns about potential ness or capacity to participate in this project varied conflicts between infrastructure and natural system across state and federal agencies that have respon- adaptation objectives. For example, there are po- sibilities in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. tential conflicts between developing water storage to support current human needs and maintaining Engagement. Stakeholders for the regional frame- aquatic species and habitats and functioning hydro- work should be engaged in continued collaborative logic systems. discussion that allows for meaningful dialogue about their differences and fosters the development

8 “A ‘World Café’ is a structured conversational process intended to facilitate open and intimate discussion and link ideas within a larger group to access the ‘collective intelligence’ or collective wisdom in the room. Participants move between a series of tables where they continue the discussion in response to a set of questions, which are predetermined and focused on…specific goals. …” —Wikipedia, accessed 1/12/15

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 37 objectives, and to identify key actions regimes together to identify those continuing oversight or dedicated and lead actors for each adaptation that support, or that work at resources to ensure the objectives objective. It has been suggested that cross-purposes to, the objectives of a actually get implemented. This is a the North Coast Regional Solutions different management regime. distinctly different task from other Team could host this regional-level tasks oriented to changing conditions collaboration. Finally, this Regional Framework for on the ground. An important action Adaptation implicitly raises an issue in implementing the framework will The tables in the previous section that is likely to grow in importance: be to consider establishing some represent the collaboration of work Currently, there is no governance regional ad-hoc body or intergov- groups for four different management mechanism, framework, or forum ernmental mechanism to oversee regimes. The contents of these tables that can sustain a comprehensive its implementation. As noted above, will evolve over time, especially if landscape-scale, multi-party effort Oregon’s Regional Solutions process the professional community that to address the effects of climate and the North Coast Regional developed the framework continues change. While a proof-of-concept Solutions Team might provide an op- to collaborate, in particular across involving coordination and collab- portunity to host or undertake some management regimes. While the oration produced this framework, a of the cross-regime collaboration that management objectives and imple- mechanism is needed at the regional will be important for implementing mentation mechanisms reflect collab- level to continue to foster its overall the Regional Framework. oration across jurisdictions, agencies, implementation. Implementation nongovernmental organizations, requires more than just coordina- Outreach. This framework has the and levels of government, there is tion. The management objectives potential to affect people, communi- need for further collaboration across state what needs to be done, and ties, and quality of life in Clatsop and management regimes. Such cross-re- the implementation mechanisms Tillamook Counties in the coming gime collaboration should review the suggest how they can be achieved. decades. The intent, of course, is for objectives for all four management But no entity has responsibility for those effects to be beneficial. If the

38 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties framework does result in different the framework. A preliminary list of Federal Programs decisions, then it has the potential potential funding sources includes • USDA-NRCS (2014 Farm Bill to generate resistance to needed the following sources: Conservation Programs) change. At the same time, interested • EPA and affected stakeholders certainly Oregon’s Infrastructure Finance have ideas, interests, and values that Authority (IFA) Funding Pro- • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ may not be fully reflected in the grams Planning Assistance Grants • Clean Water Revolving Loan Fund adaptation objectives. The need to In the end, the current opportunistic • Seismic Rehabilitation Grants engage stakeholders was a common and ad-hoc approach to funding and persistent theme that surfaced • Drinking Water Source Protection adaptation will probably never be in the four management-regime Fund adequate. This framework can’t solve work groups. Some of the adaptation • Community Development Block that problem, but a commitment to objectives and actions directly reflect Grants the framework may help agencies those discussions. Ultimately, the and communities get access to what- • Special Public Works Fund outreach and two-way learning need ever funding becomes available. to be reflected in strategies, actions, Oregon Water Resources Depart- plans, and budgets to implement the Next Steps framework. ment Funds • Place-based planning grants (pos- On February 10, 2015, the OCMP The regional framework is a starting sibly in 2015–17) conducted a conference call pri- point. In time, the experience of • Feasibility Study Grants marily to determine whether there were issues in the draft Regional implementing the framework, and • Implementation Grants/Loans for Framework that needed to be refining, updating, and adapting it Instream or Out-of-Stream Water resolved or changes that needed as warranted, would lead to distinct Projects public benefits in collectively to be made before the framework preparing for and responding to the Oregon Office of Emergency is finalized and distributed. No effects of a changing climate on the Management (FEMA funds) substantive issues were brought up north Oregon coast. That would be a • Natural hazard mitigation plan in the call. Much of the discussion success worth striving for. development centered on possible next steps. It was concluded in the conference call • Pre-disaster mitigation grants Funding. As noted above, the lack of that it would be useful to summarize funding for climate adaptation is a DEQ Nonpoint source pollution suggested next steps to include in dominant issue. Even though many control program this section of the framework. The of the implementation mechanisms material below provides that sum- Oregon Watershed Enhancement involve making changes to current mary. Several suggestions highlight practices and decision criteria, as Board Grants • Technical assistance implementation mechanisms and opposed to taking on entirely new actions under some of the adapta- • Monitoring responsibilities, revising plans and tion objectives. Repetition in the criteria for decisions still requires • Restoration (on-the-ground summary reflects repetition in the work effort and, therefore, funding. projects) discussion. Resources are available from various • Focused Investment Priorities sources; for example, many of the It should be emphasized that (upcoming in 2015) implementation mechanisms may there is a difference between a have funding available for local Department of Land Conserva- framework and other planning adaptation actions. An appendix tion and Development efforts; implementing a framework compiled early in the project identi- • Oregon Coastal Management is different from implementing a fies agency programs and activities Program Grants plan. A framework functions at a different level from most plans; it is related to climate change, many of • Planning Assistance grants which may represent opportunities an umbrella. Implementing elements for funding local implementation of of the framework will occur in many

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 39 different ways, according to manage- and initiate a process to review agencies; outline expectations that ment regime, adaptation objective, objectives across all four manage- are associated with endorsement and agency or actor. As noted at the ment regimes • Identify lead actors or teams for outset, this framework is intended • Convene a work group to continue each adaptation objective and designed to inform a broad the cross-agency, cross-regime, • Consider turning over responsibil- suite of other, more sector-specific cross-jurisdiction collaboration, ity for governance—for maintain- planning efforts. Implementation on and ing and continuing the regional the ground will occur by incorpo- identify priority management collaboration—to the Northwest rating the adaptation objectives into o objectives for adaptation Regional Solutions Team existing planning and management activities. o identify priorities from each • Identify a regional body such agency as the Regional Solutions Team Overall, suggested next steps fell into to provide oversight (expand its o identify quick-win projects a few categories. scope) and to help coordinate identify where mainstreaming efforts, since much of the work Governance adaptation objectives can occur needs to be done regionally and • Convene a regional team to foster with minimal financial cost to not just on an individual commu- implementation of the regional existing programs framework and to maintain a nity basis. capacity for landscape-scale and o identify cross-sector op- Outreach region-wide consultation and portunities that maximize co-benefits • Develop a short presentation collaboration on climate change about climate adaptation, and adaptation • Foster endorsement of the provide the presentation and the • Convene a regional ad-hoc Framework by executives in the Regional Framework document Adaptation Work Group; solicit participating communities and to local planning commissions, representation and champions; city councils and boards of

40 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties county commissioners, and state- Planning Goals and local compre- in amending their comprehensive agency governing boards and hensive plans—to implement the plans and development codes to commissions Regional Framework. For example: address climate change • Prepare a presentation to give o Consider rule-making to • Provide links in the website on an overview of climate change incorporate climate change climate change adaptation to issues relevant for Tillamook and adaptation into OAR Chapter various state and federal websites Clatsop Counties; explain what 660 and other adaptation resources the Regional Framework is and o Begin the process of incor- • Review and coordinate actions how to use it porating climate change between management objectives to • Engage with communities in adaptation language into com- address overlap and/or conflicts Clatsop and Tillamook Counties prehensive plans and zoning • Consider prioritizing action items to use the Regional Framework ordinances based on immediate likely results, to develop a “Climate Change • Identify objectives that can be cost effectiveness of implementing Action Agenda” to reduce the risks incorporated into local natural the action, and feasibility of com- and potential impacts of climate hazards mitigation plans pleting actions change • Begin the process of incorporating Other issues Implementation on the ground adaptation to climate change into • Consult with the Oregon Climate • Identify priority near-term tasks state forest management plans, Change Research Institute to bet- key lead or actions, actors for those state highway improvement plans, ter understand the way ecosystems tasks, and a timeframe for com- and other relevant state agency may change over the medium- and pleting priority tasks to achieve planning/policy documents long-term, and how such projected management objectives in the • Make existing maps and data changes should be integrated into Framework. available to communities conservation, protection, and • Use Oregon’s Statewide Planning • Develop technical assistance restoration initiatives Program—both the Statewide material for use by communities

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 41

Appendix I Contents of the Appendices

Appendix I A. Why Develop a Regional Framework for Adaptation?

B. Framework Process: From Climate Risks to Adaptation Actions

C. Possible Consequences of Future Climate Conditions 1. In the Watersheds: Coupling stress and fire to project forest change 2. Rivers and streams: Effects of climate change on aquatic systems in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 3. Ocean and coastal systems: Erosion and flood hazards on the north coast due to changing climate

D. Presentations and Materials Used in Developing the Regional Framework

References

Appendix II (Under separate cover and available online at http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/OCMP/pages/publications.aspx)

Summary of Climate Adaptation Work Agencies and Organizations Working in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 43 Appendix A. Why Develop a Regional Framework for Adaptation?

Research Background adapt to the effects of climate change, only a couple of In coastal Oregon, climate adaptation planning by these entities have a comprehensive climate adaptation local governments has been slow to take hold, as con- plan that includes policies, objectives, and implemen- firmed by a 2012 survey of 140 coastal management tation resources. In other words, the flood of scientific professionals. Competing community priorities, information and planning guidance hasn’t resulted in unclear direction, limited access to information, and broad-scale resolve to address climate change. Indeed, lack of urgency are among the causes of delay. The ma- the two major “hurdles” to adaptation planning that jority of respondents, including both elected and other the professionals surveyed in 2012 described were officials, believe that a combination of government and “lack of agreement over the importance of climate other organizations is the preferred way to initiate a change effects” and “lack of urgency regarding climate community’s response to planning for climate change. effects.” At the same time, most respondents believe However, such planning is not happening that way. their “professional actions to plan for the effects of Adaptation planning is occurring opportunistically climate change could benefit [their] community.” and in piecemeal fashion, and has generally been The fragmentary approach to climate adaptation by fostered by availability of outside funding. Managers different governments, agencies, communities, indi- who seek to be adaptive are working more or less viduals, and organizations contradicts the integrated independently, rendering adaptive decisions piece- nature of the climate system and the effects—negative meal. They are generally working without reference and otherwise—that changing climate will have on to landscape-scale adaptation priorities or objectives, human and natural systems. since such priorities and objectives had yet to be devel- oped. While such actions are no doubt helpful, their opportunistic, isolated, or independent nature belies Project Purpose the need: Climate change is fundamentally a land- The overarching purpose in developing a regional scape-scale problem that warrants a landscape-scale adaptation framework is to build capacity to address response. climate change at the community and regional levels. The mechanism for building capacity is to compile Climate adaptation tends to occur along institutional and organize information to relate to the landscapes or sectoral lines—by jurisdiction, agency, NGO, in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. There is an profession, and so on. Under the prevailing model overwhelming amount of information available about for adaptation, every actor, agency, or governmental climate change and climate adaptation. Unfortunately, unit is an independent agent. Again, while most what is readily available has varying degrees of appli- actions are likely to be beneficial, climate change is a cability or relevance to any particular place. The best landscape-scale challenge. This project establishes a first step in building capacity is to select and organize landscape-scale foundation for adaptation planning in reliable information that pertains to the place under Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. consideration—in this case, the north coast counties in Oregon. Every state and federal agency, county, Native American tribal community, and city in Oregon The intent of this framework is to clarify how climate currently has the option to develop an independent change is likely to affect landscapes and communities climate adaptation plan. Despite the staggering in- in northwest Oregon, and to align the resources and crease in both climate science and adaptation “tools” expertise in cities, counties, agencies, and organiza- and guidance designed to be used by communities to tions to address priority climate risks.

44 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties This effort began as a proof-of-concept, whose pur- Climate change is a landscape-scale problem that poses as stated at the outset were to calls for a landscape-scale response.

• build partnerships to support adaptation to climate But what does it mean to have a landscape-scale change in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties response to climate change? • align federal, state, and local efforts, where possible, • It means getting all the various parties affecting to address climate change activities in a manageable-sized landscape to more • build support for developing state- and local-level or less agree on the problems likely to result in this adaptation measures place due to changing climate conditions. • get Oregon’s risk-based Climate Change Adaptation • It means providing the opportunity for those parties Framework on the ground to lay out ways to address those problems. • develop a landscape- and risk-based approach to • It means aligning programs and measures to more climate change adaptation effectively and efficiently address climate risks in this place. This proof-of-concept grew from an observation that the current laissez-faire approach to climate change • Finally, it means fostering partnerships—across or- adaptation is insufficient to address the breadth ganizations, across sectors, and across management and scope of the challenge. An implicit but telling regimes—to implement adaptation actions. assumption in the prevailing approach is that each Adaptation will remain an abstraction until we define community is an independent agent that will take on what it means in this place. adaptation on its own. However, no community should be expected to address climate adaptation on its own.

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 45 Appendix B. Framework Process: From Climate Risks to Adaptation Actions

At the beginning of the effort to develop this regional It then focused on the landscape or natural system re- framework, the Oregon Coastal Management Program sponses to those projected changes. The causal pathway and Oregon Sea Grant committed to a “low overhead” laid out in Figure 2—from climate drivers to natural process. The intent was to maximize participation by system responses to management regime responses—is agencies, communities, and organizations that have situated right in the center of the four arrows in Figure responsibilities that affect the use and management 1. In practice, the step from priority risks to objectives of lands, infrastructure, communities, or natural necessitated some understanding of the landscape resources in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties, and to responses to changes in the priority climate drivers. maintain their involvement through the end of the effort. This focus on the landscape responses to priority risks emphasizes the idea that most planning for climate Most of the framework was developed in work change does not rely directly on climate information groups organized by “management regimes” for per se. Rather, planning needs to deal with the effects Infrastructure; Public Health and Safety; Natural of climate drivers on landscape resources, functions, Systems; and Working Lands. and conditions. The idea is to shift the focus away from climate change per se, to focus on how climate drives The information flow used to develop the framework is changes in the landscape. In other words, for the most shown in Figure 1 below. part, resource managers and community planners The first step was to lay out the known science on don’t need direct access to climate projections. Rather, climate change and its effects on the north coast land- they have a greater need for information on how the scape. Based on this summary of the current scientific projected future climate conditions will affect the understanding of changes in climate that are likely landscape—the natural system responses in Figure 2. to affect the area, the work groups identified priority InAppendix order to develop B.appropriate Framework adaptation responses, Process: climate risks for each management regime. ThenFrom the Climateinfrastructure, Risks land use, to and Adaptation natural resource manag Actions- work groups developed management objectives for At the beginning of the effort to develop thisers regional need information framework, about the howOregon climate Coastal will affect Management the adaptation (also called adaptation objectives) to ad- Program and Oregon Sea Grant committed tosystems a “low they overhead manage.” process. The intent was to dress the likely effects of those risks. Finally, the work maximize participation by agencies, communities, and organizations that have responsibilities that Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:36 AM groups identified mechanisms and actions to achieve The process of developing the regional framework affect the use and management of lands, infrastructure, communities, or natural resources in Clatsop Deleted: ‘ the objectives. began with a review of current available downscaled and Tillamook Counties, and to maintain their involvement through the end of the effort. Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:36 AM climate projections and a general survey of likely Deleted: overhead’ Figure 2 onMost the ofnext th pagee framework shows a different was developed conceptual in work groups organized by “management regimes” for effects of those climate changes on the landscape. In Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:36 AM overview Infrastructure;used to develop thePublic regional Health framework. and Safety; The Natural the secondSystems; meeting, and Working a panel of Lands scientists. provided a process started with an overview of likely changes in Deleted: ; The information flow used to develop the frameworkmore detailed is shown look at in the Figure effects 1 below.of the projected con- climate that drive landscape processes and functions. Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:36 AM ditions on the landscapes and resources in the north Deleted: ‘

Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:36 AM Deleted: regimes’ Identify Identify Develop actions and Review priority objectives to regional mechanisms risks for address climate risks to achieve the the region priority risks objectives

Figure 1. Information flow used to develop the regional climate-adaptation framework. Figure 1. Information flow used to develop the regional climate-adaptation framework. Coast Range mountains. Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:55 AM Deleted: 46 The first step was to lay out the known scienceRegional on Framework climate for changeClimate Adaptation: and its Clatsopeffects and on Tillamook the north Counties coast Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:55 AM landscape. Based on this summary of the current scientific understanding of changes in climate that Deleted: climate are likely to affect the area, the work groups identified priority climate risks for each management regime. Then the work groups developed management objectives for adaptation (also called adaptation objectives) to address the likely effects of those risks. Finally, the work groups identified mechanisms and actions to achieve the objectives. Figure 2 on the next page shows a different conceptual overview used to develop the regional framework. The process started with an overview of likely changes in climate that drive landscape processes and functions. It then focused on the landscape or natural system responses to those projected changes. The causal pathway laid out in Figure 2—from climate drivers to natural system responses to management regime responses—is situated right in the center of the four arrows in Figure 1. In practice, the step from priority risks to objectives necessitated some understanding of the landscape responses to changes in the priority climate drivers. This focus on the landscape responses to priority risks emphasizes the idea that most planning for climate change does not rely directly on climate information per se. Rather, planning needs to deal with the effects of climate drivers on landscape resources, functions, and conditions. The idea is to shift the focus away from climate change per se, to focus on how climate drives changes in the landscape. In other words, for the most part, resource managers and community planners don’t need direct access to climate projections. Rather, they have a greater need for information on how the projected future climate conditions will affect the landscape—the natural system responses in Figure 2. In order to develop appropriate adaptation responses, infrastructure, land use, and natural resource managers need information about how Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:57 AM climate will affect the systems they manage. Deleted: I The process of developing the regional Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:57 AM Deleted: in order to develop appropriate adaptation framework began with a review of current responses. available downscaled climate projections and a general survey of likely effects of those climate changes on the landscape. In the second meeting, a panel of scientists provided a more detailed look at the effects of the projected conditions on the landscapes and resources in the north Coast Range mountains. These presentations provided the scientific basis for work groups to identify Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 10:59 AM priority climate risks, adaptation objectives, and Deleted: Mountains actions to achieve those objectives in the second and third meeting. The next section contains outlines of these presentations, and links to the presentations are provided in the “Presentations Figure 2. Regional framework development process. Figure 2. Regional framework development process. and Materials Used in the Meetings” section later in this appendix. These presentations provided the scientific basis for work groups to identify priority climate risks, adapta- tion objectives, and actions to achieve those objectives in the second and third meeting. The next section contains outlines of these presentations, and links to the presentations are provided in the “Presentations and Materials Used in the Meetings” section later in this appendix.

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 47 Appendix C. Possible Consequences of Future Climate

1. In the Watersheds: Coupling stress and fire to (wildlife habitat). Its diversity of species and age project forest change gives it some insurance against destruction by disturbance. Dominique Bachelet, Ph.D., senior climate change scientist at the Conservation Biology Institute and b. Insect outbreaks are likely: Endemic insects and/ associate professor at Oregon State University or pathogens could profit from changes in cli- 1. Climate projections from the latest IPCC (5th mate and cause havoc just like they did in British Assessment Report, 2013) show consistent trend Columbia. Some scientists have been looking at upward for all seasonal temperatures the pathogen for Swiss needle cast as a potential problem in the making. Reality check: Since the 1930s, when summer temperatures were the lowest of the 20th century in The perfect storm - forest condition due to land Astoria, the trend has been upward. use and changes in climate (direct and indirect effects i.e., drought stress on trees as well as Social/Economic Response to Observed Change: drying of fuels or enhancement of reproductive Seed zone in western Oregon has changed. cycle of insects for ex - can create changes that 2. Projected forest response: are extensive and abrupt. Do not expect chronic a. Large scale model (based on process) shows linear predictable changes. Prepare now and decrease in the dominance of evergreens, switch monitor closely. to a mixed type forest, expansion of subtropical 4. Projections of precipitation are uncertain because types (common in coastal California) northward. 1) it is difficult to measure (sometimes it is snow, b. Species distribution models (based on cor- sometimes it is drizzle or fog that does not ac- relations) show increased habitat restrictions, cumulate and thus cannot be measured yet has possibility of maladaptation of existing species. large effect on plants, sometimes the wind makes 3. Despite the fact existing trees are expected to have a it hard to measure also) so there are few reliable long term legacy, disturbance can make the changes datasets available to calibrate the models (also not occur sooner rather than later. all met stations have instruments yet all measure temperature; technology has also evolved so long a. Fire is such disturbance: large scale model sim- term records need reconciling are prone to error); 2) ulating potential vegetation response to changes natural climate variability (El Nino, Pacific decadal in climate project more frequent fire occurrence oscillation) affect the amount of precipitation over mostly in the second half of the 21st century (not (multi)decadal periods yet the cause in shifts for ex. if, but when). between La Nina and El Nino years is not known - BUT it could happen earlier because of forest sea surface temperature changes can be measured condition. The coast range includes private lands and projected for the short term but what causes with even age monospecific forests prone to the shift in sea surface temperatures is the object of allow fire spread (remember the Tillamook). Old research. growth enclaves on federal land will be at risk Reality check: Less precipitation observed in the due to their proximity. last decade. Note: Old growth provides many ecosystem Projections of extremes: while uncertainty is large, services - cultural (tribal and local history), more intense fall and winter events have always esthetic and touristic, but also ensuring long been projected by several climate models. term carbon sequestration (climate regulation), decoupling from regional heat in the understory Reality check: We have seen such extremes occur- ring in the last decade.

48 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties These are important for the hydrological cycle of federal, state) to optimize land use is important. forested areas. Soil erosion, landslides (another Scenario planning for large scale disturbance disturbance allowing for shifts during recovery (ex. large fire followed by extreme rainfall) in the period), affect stream network and water quality for region would help coordinate efforts and raise communities downstream. the level of preparedness. 5. Riparian areas are important components of PNW • Riparian habitats are at risk from a variety of forests. disturbance and this will affect fish habitat, They provide fish/wildlife habitat, recreation venues, water quality and provision to municipalities. water quality and provision. Protecting critical areas of watersheds should allow for resilience to change. Municipal watersheds provide water to coastal cities through stream network. • Current wildlife will be affected by changes but new or less common species may form new Projections: most common species (alder) may assemblages taking advantage of dead snags, become less adapted to warmer drier conditions if abundance of beetles, etc. (natural or human) disturbance causes loss of water- shed integrity. Look for southern riparian species to 2. Rivers and Streams: Effects of climate change start moving in. on aquatic systems in Clatsop and Tillamook 6. Remember that human activities may mask but also Counties exacerbate climate change effects: pollution, intro- duction of invasive exotics, fragmentation affecting Jennifer McAdoo, hydrographer, Oregon Water naturally moist cool microclimate, more sources of Resources Department fire ignition due to more recreation as population David Jepsen, research project leader, Oregon De- centers along the coast (and in the whole state) ex- partment of Fish and Wildlife pand, increasing demand from coastal populations This talk will outline the ways in which climate change for resources -including water. could affect water resources in Tillamook and Clatsop 7. In summary: Counties. Specific water resource characteristics dis- cussed in the talk include: minimum summer flows, • While timber production in the southeast part of groundwater, peak flows, storage, sedimentation, and the United States will be at risk from sea level rise water quality. and drought, the demand on forest land in the Pacific Northwest will likely increase. However, Emphasis will be placed on understanding the natural climate may affect productivity directly through water system, how climate variables interact with it, species sensitivity to increased temperatures and and how other components of the water system could evaporative demand causing some maladaptation mediate or exacerbate climate-driven change to water problems, as well as indirectly through the resources. Projected changes to the climate will be increased likelihood of large scale disturbance taken from the OCCRI report for Tillamook and (fires, pest outbreaks). Solutions are being dis- Clatsop Counties. cussed by foresters, including the use of adapted Published findings, which include Tillamook and genotypes (new seed sources), introduction of Clatsop counties, project: new species, longer rotations, increased species diversity, thinning/less dense plantations. • Decreased spring and summer stream flow due to projected decreases in spring and summer precip- • Large disturbances will affect carbon sequestra- itation and possible decreases to snow in the upper tion potential (climate regulation), water capture elevations and retention (more runoff and less ground water recharge). They will also affect recreation and • Slightly increased and earlier winter stream flow cultural values especially from the few remnant due to projected increase in fall and winter precipita- old growth patches in a patchwork of tree farms. tion and possible decrease to snow pack in the upper Coordination between landowners (private, elevations

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 49 Preliminary local findings suggest possible: o The combination of higher air temps, lower sum- • Slight increase or increased variability in peak mer precipitation, and vegetative response will flows, due to increased winter precipitation, possible lead to higher water temperatures, potentially decrease in snow pack, and possible, periodic vege- impacting cold-water adapted animals tation loss due to increased chance of forest fire Given the above set of watershed-level responses, the The following changes are possible, but they are not presentation will use coastal salmon species to outline included in peer-reviewed, local analyses: some scenarios of aquatic habitat and biotic responses that we may need to plan for: • Saltwater intrusion into groundwater resource in low elevation areas, due to possible increased • Reduced stream flows and water depth in spring/ groundwater pumping and sea level rise summer/fall increases water temperatures, which changes habitat availability/distribution, and leads • Periodic increase in erosion in steeper areas, corre- to greater habitat fragmentation, and potentially to sponding to possible increased sediment deposition greater continuous exposure to conditions affecting in flatter areas due to possible increases in forest fire adult salmon mortality and peak flows • Increased storm intensity leads to greater channel • Increased inundation in highly localized areas, due scour, more stochastic spring flows, and warmer to possible peak flow increases, possible sediment spring water temperatures, which in turn subjects deposition in flatter areas, and sea-level rise in juvenile life stages to greater occurrence of dis- estuaries creet mortality events • Increase or increased variability in water tempera- • Increase in summer air temperatures leads to late ture due to increases in forest fire, decreases in snow summer/early fall flow declines, and more severe pack in high elevations, and possible changes in and frequent drought events. This leads to greater groundwater level in the low areas probability of juvenile salmonid mortality. Projected watershed conditions (scenarios) given • Flow declines in combination with other factors lead current understanding of change in climate drivers to increase water temperatures, decrease dissolved (air temperature, precipitation), and the probable wa- oxygen, and less habitat and altered timing for tershed responses that we need to plan for include: juveniles transitioning to salt water • Changes in precipitation patterns will lead to changes in stream hydrology and sediment regimes 3. Ocean and coastal systems: Erosion and flood hazards on the north coast due to changing o More frequent and protracted low flow con- climate ditions in summer might affect municipal and rural water availability Jonathan Allan, coastal geomorphologist, Oregon o More intense storm events (peak flows) might Department of Geology and Mineral Industries lead to greater frequency and magnitude of The Oregon coast is 366 miles long from the Columbia flooding River to the California border. The coastal geomor- phology of this landscape reflects a myriad of geo- o More intense storm events (peak flows) might morphic features (Figure 1) that range from plunging lead to greater stream scour and more frequent cliffs (in regions 1, 4, & 5), rocky shorelines and shore debris flows platforms (regions 1, 3, 5, & 6), wide and narrow sandy • Increases in air temperature will lead to several beaches backed by both dunes (regions 2, 5 & 6) and watershed-level responses, including: cliffs (regions 3 & 4), gravel and cobble beaches backed o Drier soils, greater evapotranspiration, and more by cliffs (regions 1, 5 & 6), barrier spits (regions 2, 4 & frequent and intense fire regimes, leading to 5), and estuaries (regions 1-6). Cliffed or bluff-backed changes in forests composition (see Dominique shorelines make up the bulk of the coast accounting Bachelet’s presentation) for 58 percent of the coastline, the remainder being dune-backed. Geomorphically, the coast can be broken

50 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 2. Ocean and Coastal Systems: Erosion and Flood Hazards on the North Coast due to Changing Climate Jonathan Allan, coastal geomorphologist, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 1:12 PM Deleted: Coastal The Oregon coast is 366 miles long from the Columbia River to the California border. The coastal Rick Cooper 3/5/2015 1:12 PM geomorphology of this landscape reflects a myriad of geomorphic features (Figure 1) that range Deleted: Geomorphologist from plunging cliffs (in regions 1, 4, & 5), rocky shorelines and shore platforms (regions 1, 3, 5, & 6), wide and narrow sandy beaches backed by both dunes (regions 2, 5 & 6) and cliffs (regions 3 & 4), gravel and cobble beaches backed by cliffs (regions 1, 5 & 6), barrier spits (regions 2, 4 & 5), and estuaries (regions 1-6). Cliffed or bluff-backed shorelines make up the bulk of the coast accounting for 58 percent of the coastline, the remainder being dune-backed. Geomorphically, the coast can be broken up into a series of “pocket beach” littoral cells (Figure 1) that reflect resistant headlands (chiefly basalt) interspersed with short to long stretches of beaches backed by both less resistant cliffs and dunes (e.g. Lincoln and Tillamook Countiesa mixture of (regions rocky cliffs 3 &(including 5 in Figure headlands) 1). The and headlands shores. Of the 18 littoral cells on the Oregon coast, effectivelythe largest is theprevent Coos cell, the which exchange extends of from sand Cape between adjacentArago in the littoral south tocells. Heceta Sediment Head in the inputs north, aresome considered to62.6 be miles negligible in length. such that the littoral cells have a finite volume of sand. Some beaches form barrier Along the Oregon coast, coastal communities are in- spits,creasingly creating under threatestuaries from ora variety bays ofbehind natural themhaz- (e.g. Nestuccaards, including and coastal Netarts (wave-induced) Spits). About erosion 75.6 (both percent of theshort coastline and long-term) consists and flooding, of beaches sand comprisedinundation, of sand orand gravel potentially backed catastrophic by either tsunamis dunes generated or bluffs, by the while the remainingCascadia subduction 24.4 percent zone. Over of time,the coast these hazardsis comprised of aare mixture gradually of being rocky compounded, cliffs (including in part due headlands) to the and degree of development that has evolved along the shores.Oregon coast Of thein recent 18 littoral decades. cells A particular on the concern Oregon coast, theis that largest the local is geologythe Coos and cell,geomorphology which extends of the from Cape Aragoregion have in the restricted south development to Heceta to Head low-lying in theareas, north, somechiefly 62.6 along miles dunes, inbarrier length. spits, or along coastal bluffs present along the open coast that are subject to Alongvarying therates Oregon of erosion, coast, and to coastallow-lying communities areas adja- are increasinglycent to the numerous under estuaries threat thatfrom make a variety up the coast of natural hazards,(Allan and including others, 2009). coastal All of these (wave sites-induced) are highly erosion (bothsusceptible short to increasedand long impacts-term) as and erosion flooding, processes sand inandundation, flood hazards and intensify, potentially driven catastrophic by rising sea level tsunamis generatedand increased by storminess. the Cascadia subduction zone. Over time,Beaches these and dunes hazards are particularly are gradually susceptible being to compounded, the inoccurrence part due of tolarge the storms degree coupled of development with high ocean that has FigureFigure 1. 1: The The coastal coastal geomorphology geomorphology of the ofOregon the Oregoncoast, evolvedwater levels. along Along the the OregonTillamook coast County in coast, recent decades. A coast,including including a breakdown a breakdown of Oregon littoral of Oregon cells. Bold littoral black cells. particcoastalular erosion concern hazards is have that been the especially local geology acute and Boldlines denoteblack the lines locations denote of thecliffs locations and rocky ofshores. cliffs Numbersand over the past 15 years due to the occurrence of several indicate regional coastal geomorphic features: plunging cliffs rocky shores. Numbers indicate regional coastal geomorphologymajor storms, coupled of with the theregion occurrence have ofrestricted the (1, 4 & 5), rocky shorelines and shore platforms (1, 3, 5 & 6), geomorphic features: plunging cliffs (1, 4 & 5), rocky development to low-lying areas, chiefly along dunes, wide and narrow sandy beaches backed by both dunes (2, 5 & 1997-98 El Niño. Collectively such events have resulted shorelines and shore platforms (1, 3, 5 & 6), wide 6) and cliffs (3 & 4), gravel and cobble beaches backed by cliffs barrierin extensive spits, erosion or along in several coastal communities bluffs (e.g.present along and narrow sandy beaches backed by both dunes (1, 5 & 6), barrier spits (2 & 5), and estuaries (1-6). Neskowin, Tierra Del Mar, and Rockaway), leading to (2, 5 & 6) and cliffs (3 & 4), gravel and cobble the open coast that are subject to varying rates of the proliferation of coastal engineering structures in beaches backed by cliffs (1, 5 & 6), barrier spits (2 erosion, and to low-lying areas adjacent to the up into a series of “pocket beach” littoral cells (Figure & 5), and estuaries (1-6). numerousorder to protect estuaries backshore that properties make fromup the the coasterosion(Allan 1) that reflect resistant headlands (chiefly basalt) inter- hazard. Although scientists are now beginning to gain spersed with short to long stretches of beaches backed andan understanding others, 2009) of the. All short of tothese long-term sites patterns are highly by both less resistant cliffs and dunes (e.g. Lincoln of Oregon coastal change (e.g. Allan and Hart, 2008; and Tillamook Counties (regions 3 & 5 in Figure 1). Ruggiero et al. 2013), the most significant erosion and The headlands effectively prevent the exchange of flood events are forced by major storms (e.g. January sand between adjacent littoral cells. Sediment inputs 1939) or storms-in-series (e.g. 1998-99 winter). In are considered to be negligible such that the littoral all cases, it is the combination of large waves, low cells have a finite volume of sand. Some beaches form atmospheric pressure, strong onshore directed winds, barrier spits, creating estuaries or bays behind them coupled with high tides, which produces high total (e.g. Nestucca and Netarts Spits). About 75.6 percent water levels along the coast and causes the most signif- of the coastline consists of beaches comprised of sand icant erosion and flood hazards. A case in point is the or gravel backed by either dunes or bluffs, while the extreme 1998-99 winter, which was characterized by remaining 24.4 percent of the coast is comprised of the equivalent of five 100-year (1%) events over a two

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 51 In December 2010, state and federal agencies on the U.S. West Coast commissioned a sea level change study by the National Academies of Sciences with the expressed purpose of deriving future projections of SLR in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Importantly, a major component of the study was to incorporate such factors as regional tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustments, and tide gauge information in order to constrain the estimates to the regional level (NRC, 2012). Results from the NRC study were published month period and led to the removal late in 2012 and for the of ~1.4 million m3 of sand in the central Oregon coast they Rockaway sub-cell. At the time, the indicate that mean sea level calculated extreme storm wave was is projected to increase by 10 m. Following those major events, +7 cm (-4 to +23 cm range) the 1% event was revised upward by 2030, +17 cm (-2 to +48 to ~14-15 m. Following periods of cm range) by 2050, and +63 storminess it can take beaches years cm (+12 to +142 cm range) to decades to fully recover and in by 2100 (NRC, 2012). some cases recovery may not be These projections are possible due to the removal of sand into deeper water. Along much of presented conceptually in the Tillamook County coast this is Figure 2, which essentially the situation with many demonstrates the effect of beaches remaining in a degraded these increases under a state. As a result, coastal commu- range of mean sea level nities are vulnerable today to major conditions (summer, winter storms let alone from the effects of and El Niño effects) typical future climate change. of the Oregon coast, Figure 2. Projections of future sea level rise for the central Oregon coast. Dashed lines forecast for the next 85 Although the same sets of processes Figreflecture 2 the: Projections mid-range of(A1B) future estimate. sea level Darker rise shadingfor the centraldepicts theOregon uncertainty coast. Dashedfor the linesA1B reflect scenarios, the mid while-range the lighter (A1B) shadingestimate. reflects Darker the shading uncertainty depicts for allthe global uncertainty climate years. are important for driving coastal for the A1B scenarios, while the lighter shading reflects the uncertainty for all models. Insert figure depicts the seasonal and El Nińo cycle in monthly mean sea To improve our erosion and flood hazards in Clatsopglobal levels climate along with models. the historical Insert figure rate of depicts sea level the rise season determinedal and for El Nitheń oNewport cycle in tide County, the impacts have not been monthlygauge. mean sea levels along with the historical rate of sea level rise determined understanding of the effects as severe. This is in large part due for the Newport tide gauge. of climate change on the to the local geomorphology (mostlynorthern Oregon coast,On theresearchers Oregon coast, are historicnow focusing rates of relativetheir attention sea level on a variety of climate change homes built on marine terraces thatissues. are somewhat This includes change(but not vary limited from a to) decrease the effects of -0.62 of ±0.35 coastal mm/yr erosion at and flood hazards due to resistant to erosion) and anthropogenicstorms effects and such SLR (RuggieroAstoria eton al.,the 2011;northern Stimely Oregon and coast, Allan, to an 2014), increase analyses of extreme wave as the construction of the Columbiaovertopping River jetties, and floodof +1.33effects mm/y (Allan (±0.79 et mm/y)al., 2012 on) ,theSLR centralon tidalcoast, hydrodynamics, and ecology and flooding which have strongly influenced the indevelopment estuaries (Chengof eta decreaseal., 2014), of -1.10and mm/yocean (±0.5 acidification mm/y) on (Barton the northern et al., 2012). the Clatsop Plains. The latter has seen significant California coast at Crescent City (Komar et al., 2011). accretion and shoreline progradationOcean since theacidification, early Differenceswhich reflects in the a changeresponse in between the chemistry these sites of (and the ocean due to the ocean’s 1900s. However, there is some suggestionabsorption that this of carbonothers) dioxide reflect from the the effects atmosphere, of regional is tectonics, of particular such concern in the Pacific Northwest process may be reversing along the northerndue to its end potential of the effectthat the on southern the shellfish Oregon industry. coast (south In 2012,of about scientists Coos in Oregon found evidence that Clatsop Plains (north of the Peter Iredale),higher where levels ero- of carbonBay) dioxide is presently in the an emergentPacific Ocean coast as were tectonic responsible uplift for the failure of oyster larvae sion processes are now beginning toto drive survive the overall in 2005 at outpacesWhiskey sea Creek level rise,Shellfish while theHatchery central toon northern Netarts Bay. coastal response. Oregon coast (including Tillamook County) is gradually being submerged (i.e. sea level rise exceeds Due to the prevalence of sandy beaches and dunes tectonic uplift). along the Tillamook and Clatsop County coast, coastal erosion and flood hazards will almost certainly in- In December 2010, state and federal agencies on the crease in the future due to projected regional increases U.S. West Coast commissioned a sea level change in sea level. Global sea level has risen approximately study by the National Academies of Sciences with 20 cm during the 20th century at an average rate of the expressed purpose of deriving future projections ~1.75 mm/yr (Holgate, 2007). The rate of sea level of SLR in 2030, 2050, and 2100. Importantly, a major rise (SLR) has accelerated over the last few decades, component of the study was to incorporate such fac- reaching rates of 2.8-3.4 mm/yr, determined from sat- tors as regional tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustments, ellite altimetry (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010), although and tide gauge information in order to constrain the some of this probably reflects steric (temperature and estimates to the regional level (NRC, 2012). Results salinity) variations due to interdecadal ocean cycles. from the NRC study were published late in 2012 and

52 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties for the central Oregon coast they indicate that mean Allan, 2014), analyses of extreme wave overtopping sea level is projected to increase by +7 cm (-4 to +23 and flood effects (Allan et al., 2012), SLR on tidal cm range) by 2030, +17 cm (-2 to +48 cm range) by hydrodynamics, ecology and flooding in estuaries 2050, and +63 cm (+12 to +142 cm range) by 2100 (Cheng et al., 2014), and ocean acidification (Barton et (NRC, 2012). These projections are presented concep- al., 2012). tually in Figure 2, which demonstrates the effect of these increases under a range of mean sea level condi- Ocean acidification, which reflects a change in the tions (summer, winter and El Niño effects) typical of chemistry of the ocean due to the ocean’s absorption the Oregon coast, forecast for the next 85 years. of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, is of particu- lar concern in the Pacific Northwest due to its poten- To improve our understanding of the effects of climate tial effect on the shellfish industry. In 2012, scientists change on the northern Oregon coast, researchers are in Oregon found evidence that higher levels of carbon now focusing their attention on a variety of climate dioxide in the Pacific Ocean were responsible for the change issues. This includes (but not limited to) the failure of oyster larvae to survive in 2005 at Whiskey effects of coastal erosion and flood hazards due to Creek Shellfish Hatchery on Netarts Bay. storms and SLR (Ruggiero et al., 2011; Stimely and

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 53 Appendix D. Presentations and Materials Used in Developing the Regional Framework

Meeting 1, July 2014. Tillamook Bay Community changes in hydrology; watershed and aquatic habitat College, Tillamook changes; and changes in coastal and ocean conditions. Meeting 1 agenda and overview (OCMP) In the second half of the meeting, participants broke Material presented in the first meeting began with into four work groups representing four ‘management a summary overview of Oregon Sea Grant research regimes’: infrastructure, health and safety, natural sys- based on interviews of coastal officials about climate tems, and working lands. The work groups identified change adaptation. The project provided an oppor- priority risks for that management regime and devel- tunity for Sea Grant to determine if the process and oped preliminary management objectives for climate material used to develop the Regional Framework adaptation to address those priority risks. resulted in any change in perception about climate ad- Materials used in the second meeting include a draft aptation, particularly on the part of local government outline for a regional climate adaptation framework officials. and guidelines for the work groups on drafting man- Summary of interviews on adaptation (Oregon Sea agement objectives for adaptation. Grant) Meeting 2 agenda and overview (OCMP)

Also in the first meeting, representatives of the Oregon Presentations on landscape responses to climate Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) and changes in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties the Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) presented an overview of the available scientific Changes in forest systems (Conservation Biology information about climate change and a summary of Institute) the likely impacts of such changes on Tillamook and Clatsop Counties. Changes in hydrology and aquatic systems (OWRD and ODFW) Climate change in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties (OCCRI) Changes in coastal and ocean conditions (DOGAMI and ODFW) Impacts of climate changes (Climate Impacts Research Consortium) The second half of the meeting was organized into work groups to identify priority risks and develop In preparing for the first meeting, participating agen- management objectives for adaptation. The work- cies and entities were asked to provide a brief sum- groups, which were provided with guidance for devel- mary of their activities related to climate adaptation. oping adaptation objectives, were organized according These summaries have been compiled into a Summary to four different management regimes: of Climate Adaptation Work, which is Appendix II. WG1: Infrastructure: Address climate-related risks to Summary of Climate Adaptation Work public infrastructure investments for systems that support communities, including water supply, waste Meeting 2, September 2014. Clatsop Community treatment, stormwater management, energy, and College, Astoria transportation The second meeting provided more detailed infor- WG2: Public Health & Safety: Address climate-related mation about system responses to changes in climate risks to the health and safety of coastal residents, conditions. These presentations were designed to pro- visitors, and communities; and private property vide information about changes in forest ecosystems; improvements

54 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties WG3: Natural Systems: Address climate-related risks the broad scale of the entire region. In a regional to ecosystem functions and services, including fish framework they are designed to address a condition and wildlife and their habitats and the capacity of and apply to a broad range of decisions and orga- natural systems to mitigate the effects of natural nizations. They are designed to inform the review hazards and revision of various plans and decision processes WG4: Working Lands & Economy: Address cli- and criteria that affect public health and safety and mate-related risks to the natural resource base for the management and use of land, natural resources, local and state economies, including commercial community assets and infrastructure. They may farm and forest lands, fisheries, recreation and state desired future landscape conditions and incor- tourism porate adaptive measures.

The guidance provided to the work groups elaborated Meeting 3, November 2014. Seaside Civic and on the idea of management objectives for adaptation: Convention Center, Seaside The principal elements of a regional adaptation The third meeting was organized into two work framework are management objectives for adapta- sessions. In the first work session, the ‘management tion or simply adaptation objectives. Some may call regime’ work groups reviewed the preliminary adapta- these goals, principles, strategies, or guidelines. The tion objectives and selected priority objectives. In the important point is that they indicate an approach or second work session, the work groups then identified action aimed at a desired future condition. implementation mechanisms and actions to achieve The work groups’ task is to develop management the priority objectives. Worksheets were provided for objectives for adaptation. both work sessions. Management objectives for adaptation are broad- Meeting 3 agenda and overview (OCMP) scale statements that lay out what should be done within various management regimes—or ‘decision Worksheets for work session 1 environments’—to adapt to variable and changing The worksheets used in the third meeting and linked climate conditions. Management objectives for to below contained the management objectives for adaptation are specifically designed to address one adaptation that had been developed in Meeting 2. Note or more climate risks. The workgroups are orga- that some of the objectives were revised in meeting nized to represent different management regimes. 3, and further revised in the process of compiling the Preliminary management objectives from each framework after the third meeting. work group will be revised as necessary when they are brought together with the objectives from other Infrastructure work groups/management regimes. Health and Safety Management objectives for adaptation are not intended to be directed at any one specific entity Natural systems or location. Rather, they are intended to work at Working lands

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 55 References

Allan, J. C., P. Ruggiero, and J. T. Roberts. 2012. Holgate, S. 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level Coastal Flood Insurance Study, Coos County, change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Oregon. Oregon Department of Geology and Research Letters 34(L01602):1–4. Mineral Industries, Portland, Oregon, Special Paper Komar, P. D., J. C. Allan, and P. Ruggiero. 2011. Sea 44, 132 pp. Level Variations along the U.S. Pacific Northwest Allan, J. C., R. C. Witter, P. Ruggiero, and A. D. Coast: Tectonic and Climate Controls. Journal of Hawkes. 2009. Coastal geomorphology, hazards, Coastal Research 27(5):808–823. and management issues along the Pacific Northwest National Research Council. 2012. Sea-Level Rise for coast of Oregon and Washington. In Volcanoes to the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: vineyards: Geologic field trips through the dynamic Past, Present, and Future. National Research landscape of the Pacific Northwest: Geological Society Council, Washington, D.C., 275 pp. of America Field Guide 15, edited by J. E. O’Connor, R. J. Dorsey, and I. P. Madin, pp. 495–519, The Ruggiero, P., H. Baron, E. Harris, J. Allan, P. D. Komar, Geological Society of America. and P. Corcoran. 2011. Incorporating uncertainty associated with climate change into coastal vulner- Allan, J. C., and R. Hart. 2008. Oregon beach and ability assessments. Paper presented at Solutions to shoreline mapping and analysis program: 2007– Coastal Disasters 2011, American Society of Civil 2008 beach monitoring report. Oregon Department Engineers, Anchorage, Alaska. of Geology and Mineral Industries, Open file report O-08-15, Portland, Oregon. 60 pp. Ruggiero, P., M. G. Kratzmann, E. A. Himmelstoss, D. Reid, J. C. Allan, and G. M. Kaminsky. 2013. Barton, A., B. Hales, G. G. Waldbusser, C. Langdon, National Assessment of Shoreline Change: and R. A. Feely. 2012. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea Historical Shoreline Change along the Pacific gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally Northwest coast (Oregon and Washington). Open- elevated carbon dioxide levels: Implications for File Report 2012-1007, U.S. Geological Survey, near-term ocean acidification effects. Limnology and Reston, Virginia. Oceanography 57:698–710. Stimely, L., and J. C. Allan. 2014. Evaluation of Erosion Cazenave, A., and W. Llovel. 2010. Contemporary Hazard Zones for the Dune-Backed Beaches of sea level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science Tillamook County, Oregon. Oregon Department of 2:145–173. Geology and Mineral Industries, Open file report Cheng, T. K., D. F. Hill, J. Beamer, and G. Garcıa- O-14-02, Portland, Oregon. 119 pp. Medina. 2014. Climate change impacts on wave Winters, K. W. 2013. Coastal Climate Change: Survey and surge processes in a Pacific Northwest (USA) Results for Oregon 2012. Corvallis, OR: Oregon Sea estuary. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 19 Grant.

56 Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties Organizations Involved in Developing the Framework

The project management team made a concerted be involved in adaptation to a greater degree than are effort to involve in this effort all levels of government, local governments. The team that produced this re- all agencies, all local governments, and all non-gov- gional framework included representatives, at one time ernmental organizations with some management or another, of the agencies listed below. The project responsibility in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties and managers are particularly grateful for and indebted an interest in adaptation. It was particularly important to the entities that provided enthusiasm and support to involve federal and state agencies, which appear to throughout the effort.

Local governments Astoria Nehalem Tillamook County Cannon Beach Tillamook Clatsop County Seaside CREST Non-governmental organizations The Nature Conservancy Columbia Land Trust Wild Salmon Center Tillamook Estuaries Partnership Tillamook Bay Community College Lower Nehalem Trust Oregon state agencies Land Conservation and Development Geology and Mineral Industries Governor’s Natural Resources Office Oregon Health Authority Agriculture Parks and Recreation Fish and Wildlife Transportation Forestry Water Resources State Lands Environmental Quality Federal agencies NOAA Fisheries U.S. Geological Survey National Weather Service National Park Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Bureau of Land Management Natural Resources Conservation Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Environmental Protection Agency Federal Emergency Management Agency Universities and institutes Oregon Sea Grant Conservation Biology Institute Oregon Climate Change Research Institute Institute for Natural Resources Climate Impacts Research Consortium Oregon State University

Regional Framework for Climate Adaptation: Clatsop and Tillamook Counties 57 Oregon Sea Grant Corvallis, Oregon ORESU-H-15-003

A digital version of this publication is available at www.climateadaptationplanning.net