Inter-Korean Relations and Multilateral Organizations: Problems and Prospects *
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Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. Bennett C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. -
SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN EAGLE and DRAGON Perceptual Ambivalence and Strategic Dilemma
SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN EAGLE AND DRAGON Perceptual Ambivalence and Strategic Dilemma Jae Ho Chung The decade of the 1990s began with the demise of the Soviet empire and the subsequent retreat of Russia from the center stage of Northeast Asia, leaving the United States in a search to adjust its policies in the region. The “rise of China,” escalating cross-strait tension since 1995, North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship and missile challenges, latent irreden- tism, and the pivotal economic importance of Northeast Asia have all led the United States to re-emphasize its role and involvement in the region.1 This redefinition of the American mission has in turn led to the consolidation of the U.S.-Japan alliance, exemplified by the 1997 Defense Guideline revision, as well as to the establishment of trilateral consultative organizations such as the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. The increasingly proactive posture by the U.S. has, however, generated grave strategic concerns on the part of China and Russia, which have sought to circumscribe America’s hegemonic parameters in Asia both bilaterally and multilaterally (i.e., the formation of the “Shanghai Six” and the Boao Asia Forum, as well as China’s call for an Association of Southeast Asian Nations Jae Ho Chung is Associate Professor of International Relations, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea. The author wishes to thank Bruce J. Dickson and Wu Xinbo for their helpful comments on an earlier version. Asian Survey, 41:5, pp. 777–796. ISSN: 0004–4687 Ó 2001 by The Regents of the University of California. -
China on Asia's Mind
BRIEF POLICY CHINA ON ASIA’S MIND François Godement SUMMARY Talk of an “Asian century” is increasingly overshadowed by This brief is based on a study trip to Tokyo in speculation about the prospect or risk of a “Chinese century”. June 2014, during which a group of ECFR’s China, India, Indonesia, and Japan will make up half of the Council members met with a wide and world’s GDP by 2030. The continent is becoming the global distinguished group of interlocutors from Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere in Asia, price maker for oil, iron ore, copper, and aluminium – China and discussed how they see the future of the and South Korea alone make up 67 percent of the world’s continent and its implications for Europe. iron ore consumption. Speculative bubbles from China’s What had often been predicted to be an “Asian currency reserves and runaway lending now drive global century” is turning out to be one in which property markets and their excesses. China has amassed China is foremost in Asia’s mind. Tensions in $4.5 trillion of currency reserves – an amount that seems East Asia are becoming the new normal and immense until one compares it with the estimated cost of it is increasingly clear that trade does not Korean reunification – estimated at around $5 to 6 trillion.1 guarantee peace and stability. Europe can Its defence budget, which is becoming four times as large neither take Asia’s stability for granted nor every 10 years, looks set to approach America’s by 2030. afford to be complacent about Asian security. -
Reunification of Korea: Economic Consequences from an External Point of View*
International Studies Review Vol. 6 No. 2 (October 2005): 21-33 21 Reunification of Korea: Economic Consequences from an External Point of View* EDWARD M. GRAHAM ** Korean reunification remains an uncertainty. When and if it comes, the condition of the North Korean economy is primitive compared to the economy of South Korea. Because of massive investment needs in the North, and under plausible assumptions regarding savings rates in a unified Korea, the balance of payment of a reunified Korea is likely to deteriorate significantly in the event of reunification. Foreign direct investment could ameliorate this result, and might contribute to a more rapid catch-up of the North to the South. Keywords: Korean reunification, economic effects of Korean re unification, balance of payments effects of Korean reunification Originally Prepared for 2005 IKUPD Forum "Korean Reunification in Korea-US Relationship," Harvard Law School, April 9, 2005. " The author would like to thank Ted Kim, Jim Lister, Paul Karner, Marcus Noland, two persons of Korean nationality who wish to remain anonymous, and two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on an earlier draft. Direct all correspondence co Edward M. Graham, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, 1750 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036-1903 USA; Tel: 1-202-454-1326; E-mail: [email protected] Downloaded from Brill.com09/28/2021 05:49:58AM via free access 22 Reunification of Korea I. INTRODUCTION lmost all Koreans dream that the "two Koreas," the Republic of Korea A (ROK) in the south and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in the north, reunify. -
The Sunshine Policy and Its Aftermath
The Sunshine Policy and its Aftermath Youngho Kim (Department of Political Science, Sungshin Women's University) I. Introduction The Kim Dae-jung administration's sunshine policy represents a paradigm shift in South Korea's policy toward North Korea. The traditional paradigm was the containment of North Korea based on the defense alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea. During his presidency the containment policy was replaced by the proactive engagement policy to induce gradual changes of the North Korean regime through reconciliation and economic cooperation. His presidency experienced the North Korea's naval provocations in 1999 and 2002. The emergence of the Bush administration with reservations on the sunshine policy and suspicion of the Agreed Framework created strains on US-ROK alliance. Yet the sunshine policy was pursued without interruption until the end of his presidency. The dispatch of the special envoy to find a peaceful solution for the North Korea's nuclear standoff in January 2003 represents last-minute efforts to rescue the engagement policy. The next administration cannot be free from the legacies of the sunshine policy. Indeed, President-elect Roh Moo-hyun is expected to carry on the former administration's engagement policy toward North Korea.1 Critical assessments of the theoretical backgrounds and the achievements of the sunshine policy will help the Roh Moo-hyun administration to devise and implement its new policies toward North Korea. The Kim Dae-jung administration also raises theoretical questions in pursuit of the sunshine policy. One of the most important issues is the announcement of the policy to dissolve the Cold War structure on the Korean peninsula the administration considers one of the barriers to improving inter-Korean relations. -
Surviving Through the Post-Cold War Era: the Evolution of Foreign Policy in North Korea
UC Berkeley Berkeley Undergraduate Journal Title Surviving Through The Post-Cold War Era: The Evolution of Foreign Policy In North Korea Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4nj1x91n Journal Berkeley Undergraduate Journal, 21(2) ISSN 1099-5331 Author Yee, Samuel Publication Date 2008 DOI 10.5070/B3212007665 Peer reviewed|Undergraduate eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California Introduction “When the establishment of ‘diplomatic relations’ with south Korea by the Soviet Union is viewed from another angle, no matter what their subjective intentions may be, it, in the final analysis, cannot be construed otherwise than openly joining the United States in its basic strategy aimed at freezing the division of Korea into ‘two Koreas,’ isolating us internationally and guiding us to ‘opening’ and thus overthrowing the socialist system in our country [….] However, our people will march forward, full of confidence in victory, without vacillation in any wind, under the unfurled banner of the Juche1 idea and defend their socialist position as an impregnable fortress.” 2 The Rodong Sinmun article quoted above was published in October 5, 1990, and was written as a response to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Soviet Union, a critical ally for the North Korean regime, and South Korea, its archrival. The North Korean government’s main reactions to the changes taking place in the international environment during this time are illustrated clearly in this passage: fear of increased isolation, apprehension of external threats, and resistance to reform. The transformation of the international situation between the years of 1989 and 1992 presented a daunting challenge for the already struggling North Korean government. -
South Korea's Economic Engagement Toward North Korea
South Korea’s Economic Engagement toward North Korea Lee Sangkeun & Moon Chung-in 226 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies On February 10, 2016, the South Korean government announced the closure of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, a symbol of its engagement policy and inter-Korean rapprochement. The move was part of its proactive, unilateral sanctions against North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and rocket launch in February.1 Pyongyang reciprocated by expelling South Korean personnel working in the industrial complex and declaring it a military control zone.2 Although the May 24, 2010 measure following the sinking of the Cheonan naval vessel significantly restricted inter-Korea exchanges and cooperation, the Seoul government spared the Gaeseong complex. With its closure, however, inter-Korean economic relations came to a complete halt, and no immediate signs of revival of Seoul’s economic engagement with the North can be detected. This chapter aims at understanding the rise and decline of this engagement with North Korea by comparing the progressive decade of Kim Dae-jung (KDJ) and Roh Moo-hyun (RMH) with the conservative era of Lee Myung-bak (LMB) and Park Geun-hye (PGH). It also looks to the future of inter-Korean relations by examining three plausible scenarios of economic engagement. Section one presents a brief overview of the genesis of Seoul’s economic engagement strategy in the early 1990s, section two examines this engagement during the progressive decade (1998-2007), and section three analyzes that of the conservative era (2008-2015). They are followed by a discussion of three possible outlooks on the future of Seoul’s economic engagement with Pyongyang. -
Korea's Economy
2014 Overview and Macroeconomic Issues Lessons from the Economic Development Experience of South Korea Danny Leipziger The Role of Aid in Korea's Development Lee Kye Woo Future Prospects for the Korean Economy Jung Kyu-Chul Building a Creative Economy The Creative Economy of the Park Geun-hye Administration Cha Doo-won The Real Korean Innovation Challenge: Services and Small Businesses KOREA Robert D. Atkinson Spurring the Development of Venture Capital in Korea Randall Jones ’S ECONOMY VOLUME 30 Economic Relations with Europe KOREA’S ECONOMY Korea’s Economic Relations with the EU and the Korea-EU FTA apublicationoftheKoreaEconomicInstituteof America Kang Yoo-duk VOLUME 30 and theKoreaInstituteforInternationalEconomicPolicy 130 years between Korea and Italy: Evaluation and Prospect Oh Tae Hyun 2014: 130 Years of Diplomatic Relations between Korea and Italy Angelo Gioe 130th Anniversary of Korea’s Economic Relations with Russia Jeong Yeo-cheon North Korea The Costs of Korean Unification: Realistic Lessons from the German Case Rudiger Frank President Park Geun-hye’s Unification Vision and Policy Jo Dongho Kor ea Economic Institute of America Korea Economic Institute of America 1800 K Street, NW Suite 1010 Washington, DC 20006 KEI EDITORIAL BOARD KEI Editor: Troy Stangarone Contract Editor: Gimga Group The Korea Economic Institute of America is registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the Government of the Republic of Korea. This material is filed with the Department of Justice, where the required registration statement is available for public inspection. Registration does not indicate U.S. -
Korean Reunification: the Dream and the Reality
KOREAN REUNIFICATION: THE DREAM AND THE REALITY CHARLES S. LEE Conventional wisdom, both Korean and non-Korean, assumis the division of this strategicpeninsula to be temporary. Officially, the Korean War still has not ended but is in a state of armistice. Popular belief also accepts as true that the greatest obstacles to Korean reunification are the East-West rivalry and the balance of power in the North Pacific. Charles S..Lee, however, argues that domestic conditions in North and South Korea actually present the more serious hurdle - a hurdle unlikely to be disposed of too quickly. INTRODUCTION Talk of reunifying the Korean peninsula once again is grabbing headlines. Catalyzed by the South Korean student movement's search for a new issue, the months surrounding the 1988 Summer Olympic Games in Seoul featured a flurry of unofficial and official initiatives on reunification. The students were quick to seize this emotionally charged issue as their new rallying cry, for the nation's recent democratic reforms (including a direct and seemingly fair presidential election in 1987) effectively deprived them of their raison d'etre. By June last year, thousands of them were on the march to the border village 6f Pahmunjom for a "summit" meeting with their North Korean counterparts. Not to be upstaged, the South Korean government blocked the marchers with tear gas, and on July 7, announced a sweeping set of proposals for improving North-South relations, including the opening of trade between the two Koreas. Capping last summer's events was South Korean President Roh Tae Woo's October speech at the UN General Assembly, in which he called for his own summit meeting with North Korean President Kim II Sung. -
Korea's Economy
2014 Overview and Macroeconomic Issues Lessons from the Economic Development Experience of South Korea Danny Leipziger The Role of Aid in Korea's Development Lee Kye Woo Future Prospects for the Korean Economy Jung Kyu-Chul Building a Creative Economy The Creative Economy of the Park Geun-hye Administration Cha Doo-won The Real Korean Innovation Challenge: Services and Small Businesses KOREA Robert D. Atkinson Spurring the Development of Venture Capital in Korea Randall Jones ’S ECONOMY VOLUME 30 Economic Relations with Europe KOREA’S ECONOMY Korea’s Economic Relations with the EU and the Korea-EU FTA apublicationoftheKoreaEconomicInstituteof America Kang Yoo-duk VOLUME 30 and theKoreaInstituteforInternationalEconomicPolicy 130 years between Korea and Italy: Evaluation and Prospect Oh Tae Hyun 2014: 130 Years of Diplomatic Relations between Korea and Italy Angelo Gioe 130th Anniversary of Korea’s Economic Relations with Russia Jeong Yeo-cheon North Korea The Costs of Korean Unification: Realistic Lessons from the German Case Rudiger Frank President Park Geun-hye’s Unification Vision and Policy Jo Dongho Kor ea Economic Institute of America Korea Economic Institute of America 1800 K Street, NW Suite 1010 Washington, DC 20006 KEI EDITORIAL BOARD KEI Editor: Troy Stangarone Contract Editor: Gimga Group The Korea Economic Institute of America is registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the Government of the Republic of Korea. This material is filed with the Department of Justice, where the required registration statement is available for public inspection. Registration does not indicate U.S. -
On the Road to Korean Reunification by Jan Dehn
THE EMERGING VIEW June 2018 On the road to Korean reunification By Jan Dehn A solution to the Korean Conflict is about a quarter of a century overdue, but now there is movement. The outlook is naturally highly uncertain at this point. Still, we explain here what we imagine may happen in the coming months and decades. Reunification of the two Koreas would be a logical consequence of a peace deal, in our view. This possibility should therefore now be given serious consideration. Reunification would require significant and sustained social and infrastructure investment in the North by the South. The return would take decades to materialise, but would ultimately favour Korea itself, while China would be the other major beneficiary, mainly via increased economic influence. The US President would gain from being seen to strike a deal to help end the Korean conflict, but the US as a nation would lose political and military influence. If Korean reunification takes place Japan would also become more isolated as America’s last remaining ally in the region. Introduction The Korean conflict was rooted in the A solution to the Korean Conflict is about a quarter of a century ideological battles, which prevailed at the overdue. On one side of the negotiation table, South Korean President Moon Jae-in gets the credit for spotting the height of the Cold War. A solution to the opportunity for peace, while US President Donald Trump has Korean conflict is well overdue so far been kind enough to side-line the national interest of the US in order to pave the way for a deal. -
Keep US Forces in Korea After Reunification
ABSTRACTS 191 Keep US Forces in Korea after Reunification Michael O’Hanlon Today’s US force posture in Korea has a simple purpose: helping stop, and if need be reverse and retaliate against, an attack by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). If that mission be- comes obsolete, either because of Korean reunification or a major reduction in the magnitude of the military competition between North and South, any continuing US military presence on the peninsula would require a fundamentally new rationale. This paper develops such a rationale, and considers various options for corresponding US force postures. My principal conclusions are that a continued and substantial US military presence on the peninsula makes sense for the United States, Korea, and the region as a whole. It might consist of roughly 20,000 to 30,000 troops, and be oriented to a broad range of security tasks including nontraditional missions such as counterterrorism and peace operations. The US presence would ideally consist of fewer army forces than are now based in the Republic of Korea today, but potentially more marines and navy sailors. In short, this proposal might be termed a “liberal vision” for the US-Korea alliance. It envisages an alliance that focuses less on tradi- tional deterrence of nearby major powers-without abandoning that mission-but that emphasizes a much broader array of security goals as well. Pursuit of those other goals could potentially allow for the inclusion of other countries, perhaps someday even China, in a broader collective security framework. Strong arguments for this type of approach can be found in international relations theory, in post-World War I1 history, and in the specific security needs of the northeast Asia region today.