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Mast Terar Rbeit MASTERARBEIT Titel der Masterarbeit The Making of Energy Futures Future Energy Scenarios in Videos and Documents of Multinational Companies verfasst von Dušan Marčetić angestrebteer akademischer Grad Master of Arts (MA) Wien, 2014 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 066 906 Studienrichtung lt. Studienblatt: Masterstudium Science-Technology-Society Betreuerin: Univv. Prof. Dr. Ulrike Felt Table of Contents 1- INTRODUCTION .......................................................................1 2-STATE OF THE ART...................................................................4 2.1- ON TIME, FUTURE AND EXPECTATIONS..........................................5 2.2-ON ENERGY AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS........................................13 2.3- ON SPACES, PLACES AND (GEO)POLITICS......................................21 3- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND CONCEPTS..................25 4- RESEARCH QUESTION AND SUBQUESTIONS....................30 5- MATERIAL AND METHODS ……………………………………..33 5.1- VIDEO ANALYSIS..........................................................................34 5.2- NARRATIVE ANALYSIS...................................................................38 5.3-DOCUMENT ANALYSIS....................................................................39 ANALYSIS.......................................................................................42 6 - SHELL........................................................................................42 6.1- SHELL SCENARIOS……………………………………………...….....44 6. 2- SHELL VIDEO PRODUCTION………………………..……………..…..47 6. 3- VIDEO 1: “EARTH 2050”………….……………………………..……...49 6.3.1- EARTH 2050 (ETHANOL PRODUCTION)............................................56 6.3.2- EARTH 2050 (MASDAR).................................................................63 6.4- VIDEO 2: “SHELL ENERGY SCENARIOS - MOUNTAINS AND OCEANS”.......70 6.4.1- OCEANS SCENARIO.....................................................................74 6.4.2- MOUNTAINS SCENARIO................................................................76 7- BP…………..…………………………………………………….…….79 7.1- BP’s VIDEO PRODUCTION……….………………………………...……84 7.2- BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035……………………..……………………...86 7.3- VIDEO 1: “BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035: A VIEW FROM 2014”.....................94 7.4- VIDEO 2: “BP US ENERGY OUTLOOK 2035: AMERICA'S ENERGY FUTURE- 2014”....................................................................................................101 8- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION………….…………..…………109 9- ANNEX I (ABSTRACT).................................................................120 10- BIBLIOGRAPHY..........................................................................122 11- ANNEX II (CURRICULUM VITAE)...............................................135 1- INTRODUCTION We live in a time when a single decision about our future can make a huge impact on all of us and on our planet. The question of energy futures is more relevant day by day, as we are facing different and huge challenges (e.g. peak oil, rising carbon emissions leading to climate change, depletion of resources, widespread deforestation, destruction of animal species). This topic is a relevant and perhaps fundamental one, since even the choices and decisions made in the present influence the mid- and long-term future in the field. The importance of oil and gas is vital for the economy, industry and even for our civilization as it stands. The impact they may have on the environment is the topic of heated debates all over the world. Modern fossil fuel-based civilization is increasingly looking for something that could be cheap, efficient and less contaminating and that still can fuel our transportation, heat our homes, and light our cities and villages. Is there an answer to the so-called fossil fuel (i.e. coal, oil, gas) dependency, which is one of the key features of the contemporary world? We must take into account that our future is someone else's present (Adam and Groves 2007). The energy future is important, not to say crucial, for many fields, and it could be examined from different angles and disciplines, including technology and engineering, sociology, economy, politics, geology, mass media and communications. Of course, considering all of these aspects would take entire volumes, therefore the topic will be narrowed down by research questions and subquestions. Why is the future in this case so important? Because, among other things, contemporary culture is marked by a much more intense future-orientation than ever before (Brown and Michael 2003). Most of our way of thinking about society and technology is interwoven and entangled in relation with time, which will be considered extensively in this thesis. Future oriented scenarios of the big companies are focusing on the idea of time, even as it varies (forecasts to 2035, even to 2050 and beyond, considering a 50 year time span in Shell’s case). Additionally,” futures play a political strategic role in arguing for and justifying technoscientific choices and in requesting compliance and support from citizens. “1 These choices are essential in current uncertain times, with tough energy and environmental issues. Thus, it makes the future something that should be looked at as much as possible. 1-Taken from the Seminar “Techno-Science and Society: Communicating and Interacting.”, Prof. dr. Ulrike Felt, University of Vienna, 2013 1 | Page Since this topic is global (as are these corporations, being present in a large number of countries worldwide), its impact, both positive and negative consequences, is of concern to the whole planet. Living in a globalized world, different aspects of the energy sector are entangled and intertwined with society and societal processes in a number of ways, which are also examined in this master's thesis. Energy futures are seen differently by various actors, entailing a number of facts that play a role (geography, natural resources, politics, economy, technological development, and culture). However controversial oil and natural gas companies might be from the environmental point of view, the fact is that they keep the world running, and will do so for many years to come. Not to mention the influence this fact exerts on other fields, for example on politics or the economy. This is why this master thesis is based on companies’ forecasts and predictions, their scenarios and expectations. There are always a number of oil and gas companies in the ranking lists by revenue, many of them among the top ten in the world, with unprecedentedly high profits. According to Fortune magazine's Fortune Global, an annual ranking of the top 500 corporations worldwide measured by revenue, in the year 2013 Royal Dutch Shell ranked first, with $481,700 million in revenue, while British petroleum (BP) ranked sixth, with $388,285 million. If we consider oil and gas companies alone, according to the same source, then Shell ranked first and BP fifth. 2 This thesis is devoted to seeing how our energy future is described by two of the world's largest companies: Shell and BP (formerly known as British Petroleum). The main research question is how is the energy future imagined, framed and presented by some of the world’s largest companies? It is mostly concerned with looking at long-term future expectations and claims; namely how are the scenarios regarding the faraway future framed and produced. These companies (as well as many others) can have different views and strategies regarding the topic, however, when boiled down some questions are common to all of them: How can we go on knowing that fossil fuels will not be there forever and what should we do about it? How can we improve our energy performance and use some other resources, which are also environmentally friendly? Coming back to this thesis, the main idea is to investigate two future scenarios based on information that is available from the corporations mentioned above. It is important to 2- http://fortune.com/global500/2013/royal-dutch-shell-plc-1/ 2 | Page remember that the main function of scenarios is to “help explore the main uncertainties lying ahead, by making them more explicit” (IEA 2003, p.24). Oil and gas companies have relevant experience in working with scenarios; they go together with their everyday activity, being rooted in the choices they make. The selected companies have their particularities in dealing with future forecasts. Royal Dutch Shell has long-standing experience in developing energy scenarios as a tool for better business decision making: its first scenario that looks out over 50 years was produced in 1995.3 BP’s outlook, and the videos based on it, extends to 2035, which might be far enough to see some essential turning points, as well as some basic future trends as this company depicts them. The relevance of this topic is such that it is becoming inevitable in any contemporary discussion, and there is a wide range of authors writing or reflecting on it, including Nobel award winners from other backgrounds.4 5 Following is a short outline of the sections of the thesis, clarifying its different parts and the general direction taken within the work. The next chapter is “State of the Art,” and it aims to give an overview of the debates and a brief literature review of what has been written recently (and not so recently) on energy and energy transitions, on time, future and space. It is followed by theoretical framing and sensitizing concepts, which presents the theoretical framework used for the analysis. In this case, it is crucial to examine the relationship
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