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Full Document November 2020 Electricity Ten Year Statement #ETYS2020 Foreword As the Electricity System Operator for Great Britain we are in a privileged position. We sit at the heart of the energy system, balancing electricity supply and demand second by second. We keep the lights on and the electricity flowing directly to where it’s needed. As well as day to day operation of the electricity system by our control centre, we play a central role within the energy industry, looking at what the future may bring and how the market needs to adapt to deliver a more affordable, greener future. We are facilitating the journey to net-zero by sharing insights and analysis, running world-first innovation projects, and communicating with the industry about how we need to plan and develop the electricity network. Welcome to our Electricity Ten Year Statement We are in the midst of an energy revolution. needs we have identified in this document, our methods in the Network Development (ETYS). This document sets out our current The economic landscape, developments in the Transmission Owners (TO) alongside the Roadmap. assessment of the future requirements of technology, and consumer behaviour are Electricity System Operator (ESO) have provided Great Britain’s electricity transmission system. changing at an unprecedented rate, creating development options for the Network Options Thank you for your continued feedback on It highlights areas with uncertain future more challenges and opportunities than ever Assessment (NOA) process. These options the ETYS process. It is vital that we share power flows and requirements which provide for our industry. Our 2020 Future Energy range from large asset builds through to smart the right data in the right way to make this opportunities for system development and Scenarios (FES), developed with stakeholder grid management systems and new commercial a useful document and a catalyst for wider innovation. and industry input, informs decisions that will products. The NOA aims to make sure that the debate. Please share your views with us; help us achieve carbon reduction targets and transmission system is continuously developed you can find details of how to contact us on It is our ambition to be able to operate a shape the energy system of the future. These in a timely, economic and efficient way, providing our website https://www.nationalgrideso. zero-carbon electricity system by 2025, a scenarios are at the heart of the ETYS process value for our customers. Using the results from com/insights/ electricity-ten-year-statement- big milestone in the UK’s journey to net- in determining future transmission network ETYS 2019, the NOA 2019/2020 recommended etys. zero by 2050. The ETYS along with our other needs. £203 million of development spend on network Electricity System Operator (ESO) publications, reinforcements in 2020. are key in helping us to achieve these goals, The themes in this year’s FES are negative through encouraging innovation and informing net emissions from the power sector with In line with our commitments in the ESO Forward development of the electricity network - so that about 40GW of new capacity connected to Plan and the Network Development Roadmap, we together we can deliver a secure, sustainable the system in the next 10 years. With a large are using our NOA pathfinder projects to assess and affordable energy future. The ETYS is a key amount of wind generation based in the north a broader range of network issues and encourage input into our Network Options Assessment of the country and the demand being based options from a range of industry participants. This (NOA) process that makes recommendations in the south of the country, these changes are year we’ve improved our year-round probabilistic for future investments and solutions. The ETYS leading to high north-to-south transmission analysis and have presented additional studies and the NOA primarily focus on the bulk power flows across Scotland. The number of that demonstrate how we are taking steps transfer across major transmission boundaries interconnectors that are predicted to connect towards enhanced tools and analysis to improve in GB, however there are many other system towards the South East of England also create our network planning. You can find further details potential overloads on the network and a key requirements that are important for secure and about our enhanced role in network planning in Julian Leslie efficient system operation. focus is to make sure that we can meet these the ESO Forward Plan. You can also find further Head of Networks, ESO needs. As a result of the future transmission details about the changes we are making to Executive Summary 04 What is the ETYS? 10 Network inputs 16 The electricity transmission network 22 Scotland 26 North of England 36 North Wales and Midlands 42 East of England 49 South Wales and South of England 53 Contents Year-round probabilistic analysis 67 Way forward 80 Further information 84 Executive summary Our Ambition system was originally designed to operate is needed, including integrating As the Electricity System Operator (ESO) newer technologies right across the system – from large-scale off-shore wind to domestic scale solar panels – increasing demand-side participation, for Great Britain, we are in a privileged using new smart digital systems to manage and control the system in real- position. We sit at the heart of the energy time. system, balancing electricity supply and We’re already working with the industry to identify the systems, services and products needed to run a zero-carbon network and developing the new demand second by second keeping the competitive market places needed to source these as efficiently as possible. We know the energy transition must be affordable and that competition is lights on and the electricity flowing directly vital for encouraging innovation and keeping prices as low as possible. to where it’s needed. Our 2030 mission is to enable the transformation to a Our ambition is to be able to fully operate Great Britain’s electricity system sustainable energy system and ensure the delivery of with zero-carbon by 2025. We are already making great progress towards this, with record levels of renewable generation and periods of operating reliable, affordable energy for all consumers. We have set without using coal power. This means a fundamental change to how our some clear goals for 2025, we aim to have: Key Messages 1. Power flows will become more variable with higher peaks 2. There is a growing need for network reinforcements in a number of regions 3. Network constraints expected to rise if no action is taken Key Message 1 Power flows will become more variable with higher peaks. Over the next 10 years, wind generation has been forecasted to increase in the north of the country. Demand is predominantly located in the south of the country leading to high north-south power flows with high variability. Interconnectors connect us to other European markets and either import or export power. As these flows change, it can require further transmission capability on the system to avoid constraints, especially when interconnectors export to Europe during significant periods of wind output. Wind Low Medium High Conventional Plant High Medium Low Interconnectors Typically Import Variable Variable with more export Key Mesage 2 In the move to net-zero over the next decade, the GB Electricity Transmission System will face growing needs in a number of regions Increasing quantities of wind Additional 4GW of renewables generation connected across expected compared to last year’s the Scottish networks more than scenarios requiring 18GW of requied doubling the north-to-south transfer transfers by 2040 A potential growth of over 6GW in low- carbon generation and interconnectors 25% increase in expected 1 in the North of England combined with requirements compared to last year’s high Scottish generation will increase scenarios transfer requirements in the Midlands. 2 10GW increase expected in generation coming from offshore wind on the east 17% increase in expected generation coast connecting to East Anglia, which between Two Degrees (FES 2019) and will increase the need for reinforcement Leading the Way (FES 2020) here 3 4 New interconnectors with Europe will London and Southern England need place increased requirements on the more reinforcement to enable future transmission network. interconnection Key Message 3 Constraint costs are expected to increase due to high flows across the transmission boundaries if no action is taken over the next ten years. The ETYS describes the network capability by looking at the maximum secured power transfer between two regions or the power transfer across a boundary. Constraint SC Costs B0 B1 B1a B2 B4 B5 B6 B7a B8 B9 1.5 B15 SC1 SC2 SC3 LE1 EC5 2021 To operate the system safely, we must 2022 make sure that the power flow across the 2023 boundary does not exceed the capability 2024 of the system between the two regions. 2025 2026 To prevent this, we have to take actions 2027 to constrain generation, which can incur 2028 significant costs 2029 1 2 4 3 2030 Lower Constraint Costs Higher Constraint Costs The heatmap shows that if no reinforcements are made to the system (i.e. the system is the same as it is today, over the next 10 years), the network boundaries defined in the ETYS would lead to incurring significant network constraint costs due to the high flows from the increased generation capacity. What is the ETYS? What is the ETYS? This is our annual view of what the Currently, the outcome of the planning process recommends transmission requirements and capability investing £203 million this year to 42 projects worth almost £11.1 billion. Details of the projects are shown in the 2019/20 NOA of GB NETS are over the next decade.
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