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The Race for the Electric Car

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The Race for the Electric Car Equity Research A White Paper on a Facet of the Energy Sector THE RACE FOR THE ELECTRIC CAR: A Comprehensive Guide To Battery Technologies And Market Development Alternative Energy Dilip Warrier 415.364.2983 [email protected] Jeff Osborne Please see analyst 212.271.3577 [email protected] certification and other important disclosures starting on page 85 Yumi Odama and continuing through 415.364.5965 [email protected] March 19, 2009 page 85. Thomas Weisel Partners does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Customers of Thomas Weisel Partners in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.tweisel.com or can call (877) 921-3900 to request a copy of this research. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. THE RACE FOR THE ELECTRIC CAR: A Comprehensive Guide To Battery Technologies And Market Development Table of Contents A Shift To Cleaner Modes Of Transportation Is Inevitable; The Time Is Now ........................................................................6 Industry Drivers.................................................................................................................................................................................11 Several Hurdles To Broad Acceptance Of Next Generation Vehicles.......................................................................................18 We Think Initial Volumes Of PHEVs And BEVs Will Be Driven By Fleet Purchases..........................................................20 $10-15 Billion Market For Advanced Automotive Batteries By 2015-2020................................................................................21 Commercial Vehicle Markets – Another Untapped Market, Although Fleet Owners Increasingly Looking At Ways To Reduce Carbon Footprint And Comply With Emissions Regulations.................................................................................22 Lithium Supply For Automotive Batteries Of Tomorrow – No Shortage Of Lithium Reserves, However, Lithium Carbonate Production Needs To Ramp In Order To Satisfy Demand From Vehicle Manufacturers..................................25 The Rationale For Hybrid And Electric Vehicles .........................................................................................................................27 How Hybrids Work...........................................................................................................................................................................28 Types Of Electric Drives..................................................................................................................................................................33 Moving On To All-Electric Vehicles ..............................................................................................................................................39 Other Alternative Fuels And Advanced Vehicles .........................................................................................................................46 Energy Storage Technologies – No Silver Bullet Solution For Electrification Of Automobiles; Different Solutions For Different Applications ............................................................................................................................49 Battery Manufacturing Costs – A Closely Guarded Secret; No Details In Public Domain; But Cost Should Reduce With Volume ..........................................................................................................................................74 Do Hybrids Pay Back The Initial Premium Vs. Conventional Vehicles? Depends On Battery Costs, Vehicle Design, Gasoline Pricing, Driving Behavior, Mileage And Federal/State Incentives.............................................................................76 Grid Capacity And Charging Infrastructure Concerns; Our Take – Sufficient Grid Capacity, But Smart Charging Infrastructure Development Needed..............................................................................................................................................80 THE RACE FOR THE ELECTRIC CAR: A Comprehensive Guide To Battery Technologies And Market Development Executive Summary Amidst a global economic meltdown, the continued downswing in the fortunes of the auto industry, further anticipated bailout money for the U.S. auto industry contingent on their producing “greener” vehicles, global warming and tighter regulation on emissions, we see a great opportunity arising in the form of next-generation clean transportation enabled by advanced battery technologies hitherto unavailable to the automotive industry. Although the concept of electric vehicles is not new, what is different this time is the availability of reliable batteries that possess excellent energy and power capabilities in a practical form factor. That technology is available, here and now, through companies like A123, Altair Nano, Electrovaya, Ener1, Exide, Johnson Controls and Valence. Ultimately, we see a larger portion of automobiles incorporating increasing degrees of electrification of the drivetrain, as automakers begin to import hybrid drivetrain technologies from their core hybrid vehicle offerings to a broader range of vehicle models. We believe that advanced energy storage companies offer the best way for investors to participate in the greening upgrade cycle of vehicles; this market could reach $10-15 billion annually in the 2015- 2020 time frame. We also see alternative fuel systems and specialized integrators of hybrid/electric drivetrains as an attractive avenue for investors. Although advanced battery technologies have been around for several years (such as in cell phones and laptops), reliable large-format, mass-produced batteries for electrified vehicle drivetrains have presented challenges in the past. Because these technologies are new, costly and have yet to meet the high standards of the European and North American automotive industry, we would characterize this as a high risk sector; however, we believe the reward can be very high for selective investors who are willing to take this risk and carry a long-term investment horizon. We expect to see high levels of capital raising activity over the next few years among advanced energy storage companies, particularly in the United States, given the historical absence of a domestic advanced battery supply infrastructure and automakers’ aggressive plans to make cars with increasing levels of electrification. We see independent factories as well as battery assembly factories owned by the automakers themselves evolving over time. Given the long-term trends in the sector, we expect continued venture capital interest in the market place. We are widening our research coverage of the Alternative Energy industry to include clean transportation and energy storage technologies and are initiating coverage of Ener1, Inc. (HEV), Exide Technologies (XIDE) and Maxwell Technologies (MXWL). March 11, 2009 Thomas Weisel Partners LLC Page 5 of 86 Dilip Warrier 415.364.2983 THE RACE FOR THE ELECTRIC CAR A SHIFT TO CLEANER MODES OF TRANSPORTATION IS INEVITABLE; THE TIME IS NOW Amidst a global economic meltdown, the continued downswing in the fortunes of the auto industry, further anticipated bailout money for the U.S. auto industry contingent on their producing “greener” vehicles, global warming and tighter regulation on emissions, we see a great opportunity arising in the form of next-generation clean transportation enabled by advanced battery technologies hitherto unavailable to the automotive industry. Although the concept of electric vehicles is not new, what is different this time is the availability of reliable batteries that possess excellent energy and power capabilities in a practical form factor. That technology is available, here and now, through companies like A123, Altair Nano, Electrovaya, Ener1, Exide, Johnson Controls and Valence. Ultimately, we see a larger portion of automobiles incorporating increasing degrees of electrification of the drivetrain, as automakers begin to import hybrid drivetrain technologies from their core hybrid vehicle offerings to a broader range of vehicle models. We also highlight that switching from gas to electricity as a fuel makes sound strategic sense because electricity can be generated through a variety of sources— coal, oil, gas, solar, nuclear, wind and biomass—versus an overdependence on oil. This report is broken down into the following sections: • Industry drivers (page 11) • Barriers (page 18) • Market opportunity (page 21) • Lithium supply and demand situation as it relates to automotive lithium ion batteries (page 25) • Next generation transportation technologies (page 27) • Enabling energy storage technologies (page 49) • An in-depth look at battery manufacturing costs, a subject most manufacturers are reticent to discuss (page 74) • Analysis of the cost to own and operate a hybrid/electric vehicle versus a conventional vehicle (page 76) • Examination of shortage concerns of a grid capacity to accommodate the charging needs of millions of plug-in electric vehicles (page 80). No Silver Bullet Solution; Energy Storage Sector
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