Boddington Report
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SHIRE OF BODDINGTON SUB-REGIONAL ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS Shire of Boddington Sub-regional Economic Opportunity Analysis Executive Summary The Peel Regional Investment Framework sets out the vision, objectives and strategies for the Peel region to 2050. Identified within the Framework is the need for sub-regional economic analysis to aid sub-regions of the Peel to engage in innovation, economic diversification and to continue to meet the needs of a growing population. This report provides sub-regional data and preliminary economic opportunity analysis for the Shire of Boddington to aid in identifying specific opportunities for development in this locality and potential related projects across the region. Key Findings • Population & Demographics: While Boddington’s population has grown by roughly 28% over the last decade, resident numbers have been in decline since 2012. Boddington has a younger population compared to the wider region, with a median age of 39 (two years younger than the Peel average) and a higher instance of young families. By current growth rates Boddington’s population will increase by 25% in 2031, exceeding WAPC population projections. • Employment & Labour Force: Boddington is characterised by very low unemployment and healthy labour force participation. 80% of Boddington residents are employed within the Shire, this is partly attributable to a large percentage of Boddington residents being employed in the mining industry. The Mining and Construction industries provide 70% of all available jobs in the LGA, attracting residents of other localities to work in Boddington. A very high self-containment rate in Health Care implies there is a skills mismatch between the residents’ skills and available employment in this industry in the Shire. • Industry & Land Use: Mining provided 85% of Boddington’s $2.1B gross revenue. Based on growth, local employment contribution and backwards linkages, Mining, Agriculture, Manufacturing and Construction Services were identified as key industries for Boddington that, if expanded, could help deliver broad based economic benefits for the Shire. All key industries in Boddington, with the exception of Accommodation and Food Service, have seen a faster growth rate in comparison to the Peel region. Ample land for Residential and Industrial expansion has been demarcated by the Shire. • Economic Opportunities & Diversification: Brief synthesis of Boddington’s economic, environmental and social factors indicates that the Shire could be primed for industrial-focused growth. The abundance of industrial land and presence of active extractive operations provide the opportunity to support and grow engineering, fabrication or other support activity ventures that can provide specialised services to the mining and agricultural industries both within and, eventually, outside of Boddington. Investment and/or endorsement of Enterprise Facilitation to help identify and form mutually beneficial links between stakeholders and firms should be considered by the Shire and operating extractive industries as a Corporate Social Responsibility activity. Furthermore, the proximity to Perth, natural assets and ongoing trail planning and development indicate tourism potential for the Shire. Page 1 of 26 Contents 1.0 Population & Demographics ............................................................................................................. 3 2.0 Employment & Labour Force ............................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Employment & Labour Force Summary ...................................................................................... 14 3.0 Industry Sector ................................................................................................................................ 14 3.1 Key Industries .............................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 Moderate Impact Industries ....................................................................................................... 17 4.0 Services ........................................................................................................................................... 17 4.1 Education & Childcare ................................................................................................................. 17 4.2 Health & Social Services .............................................................................................................. 18 5.0 Land Use Availability ....................................................................................................................... 18 5.1 Residential ................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Industrial ..................................................................................................................................... 19 6.0 Infrastructural Considerations ........................................................................................................ 20 7.0 Economic Opportunities & Diversification ...................................................................................... 21 7.1 General ........................................................................................................................................ 21 7.2 Boddington Focused ................................................................................................................... 22 7.3 Case Studies ................................................................................................................................ 23 References ............................................................................................................................................ 25 Release date: Version 1.1 February 2020; Version 1: December 2019 Cover images courtesy of Visit Mandurah and Russell Ord Photography Disclaimer – This document has been prepared using a range of data sources. All information is provided accurately to the best of our ability and within the limits of our knowledge and resources. Page 2 of 26 1.0 Population & Demographics Boddington (S) Total Population Growth 2500 2252 2000 1833 1427 1500 1000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 1. Boddington Population Growth (ABS, 2019) Boddington’s total population has grown by 28.4% from 2006 to 2018 but experienced a decline from its peak in 2011 (ABS, 2019). Population growth was most likely due to the re-opening of the Newmont Boddington Gold mine and the expansion of the Worsley Alumina bauxite mine before 2012. Mine expansion completion is the most likely explanation for recent population decline. Boddington’s population has grown at an average of 2.9% per year from 2006-2016. However, in 2011- 2016 the average growth rate was -3.7%, reflecting the declining population (ABS, 2016a). As of 2016 the largest age cohort in Boddington was 45-54 years of age. Figure 2 (below) outlines the significant reduction in persons aged 25-44 years of age experienced between 2011 and 2016, as outlined above, this is most likely due to the mine expansion completion and reduction in working aged residents. 15-24-year-olds make up only 7.8% of Boddington’s population – the same cohort accounts for 11.3% of the Peel region’s population. Page 3 of 26 Boddington (S) Age Distribution 2006-2016 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 Number of People 100 50 0 0-4 years 5-14 years 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 years years years years years years years years and over Age Year Brackets 2006 2011 2016 General Trend Figure 2. Boddington Age Distribution (ABS, 2016a) In total there are 977 males and 866 females in Boddington, making up 53% and 47% of the population respectively, the slightly uneven split in gender is likely due to the prevalence of males employed in mining. Boddington Gender Distribution 2016 85 years and over 75-84 years 65-74 years 55-64 years 45-54 years 35-44 years Age Bracket 25-34 years 15-24 years 5-14 years 0-4 years 175 125 75 25 25 75 125 175 Females Males Number of People Figure 3. Gender Distribution 2016 (ABS, 2016a) At 2016 Boddington had a distinctly younger population compared to the wider Peel region, evidenced by figures 3 and 4 below. Proportionally, Boddington has 3% more children aged 0-14 years, and between 1-3.5% more adults in cohorts between the ages of 25 and 64 years of age. Peel, however, has significantly more (3.5%) young adults compared to Boddington. This indicates that more young families live in Boddington compared to Peel, potentially mine workers with their families. However, Page 4 of 26 limited education options post lower secondary school has a negative effect on retaining those families as their children become young adults. Boddington (S) & Peel 2016 Age Breakdown (%) 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Percentage of Population of Percentage 2.0% 0.0% 0-4 years 5-14 years 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 years years years years years years years years and over Age Year Brackets Boddington Peel Region Figure 4. Age Breakdown (%) (ABS, 2016) Median age in Boddington has consistently remained 2-3 years lower than the Peel region’s over the 10-year period from 2006 to 2016. The median age changes over the ten-year period ostensibly indicate that neither Peel nor Boddington are experiencing notable ageing of the population. Median Age 2006-2016