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10.1 Summary Figure 10.1: World gold consumption by sector . The price averaged about US$1,800 an ounce in the first half of 2021 5,000 — up US$30 an ounce from the 2020 average. This reflects ongoing uncertainty over the COVID-19 pandemic and still-low real US 10-year 4,000 Treasury bond yields. As the pandemic recedes and the world economy recovers fully, gold prices are forecast to steadily fall in the outlook 3,000 period, averaging US$1,635 an ounce in 2023. Labour and skill shortages are affecting Australia’s gold mine Tonnes 2,000 production, which is estimated to reach 332 tonnes in 2020–21. Production from new mines and existing mine expansions is expected 1,000 to boost gold mine production to 388 tonnes in 2022–23 (see Australia section). 0 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 . Gold export earnings are forecast at $29 billion in 2021–22, before a decline to $28 billion in 2022–23, as gold prices ease back. Total Fabricated Investment Official sector Source: World Gold Council (2021) Gold Demand Trends; Department of Industry, Science, 10.2 Consumption Energy and Resources (2021) World gold consumption decreased in the March quarter 2021 Offsetting the fall in gold-backed ETF holdings and weaker official sector World gold demand fell by 23% year-on-year to 816 tonnes in the March demand has been a rise in consumer demand for gold (jewellery, gold quarter 2021. The decline was driven by a strong outflow from gold- coins and bars). Gold jewellery consumption rose by 52% year-on-year to backed exchange traded funds (ETFs), which lost nearly 178 tonnes (or 477 tonnes in the March quarter 2021, driven by lower gold prices and US$9.5 billion). An improvement in the global economy and the roll-out of festival and wedding purchases in China and India — the world’s two the COVID-19 vaccines led to an exodus of institutional investors’ funds largest gold jewellery consuming countries. In China, jewellery demand from safe haven assets (such as gold ETFs) to riskier assets. increased by 212% year-on-year in the March quarter 2021 to 191 tonnes. Over the year to the March quarter 2021, official sector gold buying (that Over this same period, jewellery demand in India increased by 39% year- is, from central banks and other government financial institutions) fell by on-year to 103 tonnes. 23% to 95 tonnes. Supporting the economic recovery from the COVID-19 Attracted by lower gold prices, bargain-hunting retail investors returned to pandemic appears to have been the main catalyst for some central banks’ the gold bar and coin markets, buying 339 tonnes of gold in the March diminished appetite for gold. According to the World Gold Council, Turkey quarter 2021, a 36% year-on-year rise from the March quarter 2020. was the largest gold seller in the March quarter 2021, selling about 32 tonnes of gold. Hungary was the largest gold buyer in the March quarter World gold consumption forecast to rise in 2021 2021, buying 63 tonnes of gold. Uncertainty persists, due to the uneven pace of the COVID-19 vaccine take-up and rising COVID-19 cases in many nations. This uncertainty is helping to maintain investor demand for gold. Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2021 92 Global gold consumption is forecast to increase by 6.6% to 4,056 tonnes of 1.0% between 2022 and 2023, to 1,137 tonnes by 2023. This is in 2021, as steady gold prices and the roll-out of COVID–19 vaccines help supported by a forecast pull-back in gold prices (see Section 10.4 prices). to drive up sales of gold jewellery (Figure 10.1). The official sector is expected to add to gold demand in 2022 and 2023. Jewellery demand has been revised up by 5.3% to 1,858 tonnes in 2021, Many central banks are expected to shift their focus from accommodative higher than the forecast in the March 2021 Resources and Energy liquidity requirements — to support economic growth during the COVID-19 Quarterly (REQ). The revision reflects higher than expected Chinese gold pandemic — to reserves diversification — to help protect their wealth. As a jewellery demand in the March quarter 2021. In the US, gold jewellery result, the pace of central bank gold buying is forecast to increase by an consumption grew by 6.4% in the March quarter 2021, and is expected to average 12% a year over the outlook period, reaching 440 tonnes in 2023. remain strong over the rest of 2021, driven by an effective COVID-19 vaccine rollout, improved consumer sentiment and high household 10.3 Production savings. In Europe, jewellery consumption is expected to be weak, due to World gold supply decreased in the March quarter 2021 a slow COVID-19 vaccine rollout and less vigorous economic recovery. World gold supply fell by 4.4% year-on-year to 1,096 tonnes in the March On 21 May 2021, the Russian government introduced legislation that quarter 2021, due to an 8.0% decline in gold recycling. Lower gold allows the country’s national wealth fund to buy and hold gold with the recycling activity in the March quarter 2021 reflected lower US dollar gold Russian central bank (the Bank of Russia). This latest development is prices, improved economic activity and employment opportunities that expected to boost gold consumption in Russia from 2021. reduced the sale of distressed gold from consumers to jewellery retailers. A decline in net producer hedging — to minus 25 tonnes — also The most significant risk to global gold consumption in 2021 is the rise of contributed to falling world gold supply in the March quarter. COVID-19 cases in India. India recorded a 39% jump in jewellery demand in the March quarter 2021, but the latest wave of the COVID-19 pandemic Offsetting the fall in world gold recycling and producer hedging is the rise is likely to dampen Indian jewellery demand for the remainder of 2021. of world gold mine production. In the March quarter 2021, global gold mine production grew by 4.2% year-on-year to 851 tonnes, driven by higher Gold consumption expected to rise in 2022 and 2023 production in Canada and Indonesia. World gold consumption is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of In Canada, higher ore grades in the Canadian Malartic, LaRonde and 5.8% in 2022 and 2023, to 4,537 tonnes in 2023 (Figure 10.1). The growth Meadowbank gold mines contributed an additional 1.8 tonnes of gold to is expected to be largely driven by jewellery consumption, which is the country’s gold output. forecast to rise by nearly 12% a year in 2022 and 2023, to 2,313 tonnes in 2023. Jewellery demand from China is expected to remain strong, Production in Indonesia increased by 29% year-on-year, driven by a 93% supported by rising consumer sentiment and income. Demand from India year-on-year rise at Grasberg — the world’s third largest gold mine — is expected to recover in 2022 and 2023, as more people are vaccinated following its transition from open cut to underground mining in the first half and the economy recovers. of 2019. Gold retail investment is expected to help global gold consumption, with Production in Australia — the world’s second largest gold producing demand for gold bars and coins forecast to rise at an average annual rate country — fell by 3.1% year-on-year in the March quarter, to 75 tonnes (see Section 10.5 Australia’s exports and production). Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2021 93 Over this period, production in China — the world’s largest gold producing Australian output is forecast to rise by 7.7% to 353 tonnes in 2021 (see country — fell by around 2.0% year-on-year, as two fatal accidents in the Section 10.5 Australia’s exports and production). In 2021, production in Hushan and Caojiawa gold mines in Shandong province in January and Canada and the US is forecast to rise by 24% and 6.5% to 224 and 212 February 2021 led to production suspensions at several gold mines in the tonnes, respectively, driven by a production recovery from the COVID-19 region as safety checks were undertaken. disruption. Chinese gold mine output is forecast to fall by 2.2% in 2021, to 356 tonnes, as stricter environmental regulations lead to mine closures. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), gold mine production fell by around 19% year-on-year, as COVID-19 containment measures in March 2021 reduced Gold mine production in Latin America is expected to recover in 2021, Newcrest’s 22 tonnes a year Lihir gold mine production by 8.5% quarter- following heavy losses in 2020. Production is forecast to increase in on-quarter. Barrick Gold’s 15 tonnes a year Porgera gold mine in PNG — Mexico (by 14% in 2021 to 121 tonnes), Peru (up 15% to 100 tonnes) and on care and maintenance since April 2020 — did not restart in the March Brazil (up 3.4% to 90 tonnes). quarter, despite the PNG Government and Barrick Gold reaching an in Gold recycling activities are expected to be disrupted in India in the June principle agreement on the ownership and operation of the mine in quarter 2021, due to the rise of COVID-19 cases. As a result, world gold October 2020. recycling supply is forecast to fall by 4.3% to 1,228 tonnes in 2021. In 2021, world gold supply is forecast to increase by 3.6% to 4,788 tonnes, World gold supply expected to rise in 2022 and 2023 driven by higher gold mine production in Australia, the US and Canada (Figure 10.2).
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