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151220-MASTER-REILLY.Pdf (7.099Mb) “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically Assessing Sources and Information in a Conspiratorial World A quantitative study of conspiracy mentality and conspiracy theory endorsement in relation to news media skepticism and -literacy, source preference, critical thinking dispositions and -skills. Ronan Eric Reilly Master’s Thesis in Journalism UNIVERSITY OF OSLO Institute of Media and Communication 15. December 2020 Ronan Eric Reilly II “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically assessing sources and information in a conspiratorial world “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically Assessing Sources and Information in a Conspiratorial World A quantitative study of conspiracy mentality and conspiracy theory endorsement in relation to news media skepticism and -literacy, source preference, critical thinking dispositions and -skills. “History is much more the product of chaos “… if you assume a big than of conspiracy.” enough conspiracy, ― Zbigniew Brzezinski you can explain anything, including the cosmos itself.” ― Fritz Leiber, The Big Time “Feedback loops, echo chambers, circular reinforcement. All could play a part in escalating the utterly imaginary to the level of reality, sometimes with fatal consequences.” ― Jasper Fforde, Early Riser “It's all one big conspiracy. Just there's nobody pulling all the strings.” “It’s who’s controlling ― James Oswald the Illuminati that I’m more concerned about.” ― Angela Mullins, Working for Uncle Henry III Ronan Eric Reilly © Ronan Eric Reilly 2020 “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically Assessing Sources and Information in a Conspiratorial World Ronan Eric Reilly http://www.duo.uio.no/ Trykk: Reprosentralen, Universitetet i Oslo IV “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically assessing sources and information in a conspiratorial world V Ronan Eric Reilly Summary Conspiracy theories thrive in today’s overly saturated media landscape, where media consumers constantly are bombarded with an abundance of information from both mainstream and alternative outlets. Facing this scenario, audiences have little other choice than to somehow decide who and what to believe, and to invoke some level of effort and skill in interpreting information. This thesis seeks to explore both ‘conspiracy mentality’ (an underlying disposition toward viewing events as the product of conspiracies) and the actual endorsement of certain specific conspiracy theories in relation to several variables relevant to media consumption. Two main areas of focus are explored: a) News media trust, source preference, and literacy; and b) Critical thinking dispositions and skills. By identifying, presenting, and drawing on relevant literature, as well as evaluating former endeavors regarding measurement of specific variables, the primary aim is to quantitatively explore these relationships through answering eight research questions. A quantitative, fixed-response cross-sectional questionnaire containing primarily a combination of previously validated-, existing but altered-, as well as self-developed multi-item Likert measuring scales forms the basis of findings. Data is collected from a demographically diverse non-probability convenience sample selection of Norwegians (N=125) of all ages, socio-cultural backgrounds, and with varying political views – as well as media preferences and habits. Initial observations reveal a moderately high level of general conspiracy mentality within the sample – as well as a prevailing presence of respondents who endorse various conspiracy theories. A series of bivariate correlation analyses and one-way analyses of variance (ANOVA’s) are run based on the gathered data in order to answer all research questions. Findings suggest that high skepticism towards mainstream media, as well as a positive attitude towards – and frequent consumption of – ‘alternative’ news media are all significantly related to both conspiracy mentality and conspiracy theory endorsement. Findings further suggest that susceptibility to informal fallacious arguments, in addition to an inability to identify nonsensical, but seemingly meaningful ideas (‘pseudo-profound bullshit’), are also correlated with conspiracy theory endorsement and -mentality. Partial, albeit weak, relationships to some aspects of news media literacy – such as understanding how filtering of information in the media can affect perceptions of reality – are also discovered in relation to conspiracy theory endorsement. Surprisingly, no significant findings are uncovered in relation to critical thinking disposition or source criticism abilities; although it is hypothesized that methodological flaws may be at fault for some of these results. Some possible implications of findings for journalists and media workers are discussed where applicable throughout, and upon conclusion. VI “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically assessing sources and information in a conspiratorial world Foreword Returning to university to finally achieve a master’s degree having passed my mid-thirties ended up being a mixed-emotion endeavor. In many ways it has been challenging – as work, life, children, and family obligations etc. inevitably have consumed most available time. On the other hand, it has been highly liberating and rewarding – not only to sporadically re-walk in the social footsteps of a mid-twenties version of myself, but also to be able to approach academic work with an extended amount of life experience and perspective that was unavailable to me ten-fifteen years ago. During my time here at UiO I have made many new acquaintances – several from various cultures and countries across the world. A big thanks to all of you for enriching my ‘second run’ here. The list of names is long, but you all hopefully know who you are! To all the 125 people who have participated in the survey – I realize it was very comprehensive, and your valuable time is much appreciated. I cherish all the feedback I have received – especially the positive remarks from everyone who found the questions interesting. For very different reasons I was also intrigued by the (luckily very few) posts in response to my survey request which referred to me as e.g. “a brainwashed and corrupt mass media liar”; and the ‘likes’ these posts generated. Whether you enjoy a good conspiracy theory or not, you have all played an important part in the story of completing this thesis. A large thank you naturally also goes out to my supervisor at IMK, Dr. Kjetil Rødje (S18/F18/S19/F19/S20/F20). Your advice and insight – as well as your patience with regard to continuous delays and shifting aims – has been pivotal to the eventual completion of this thesis. Thank you to my lovely children, Stella Edine and Edwin Olaver. Although you have absolutely no conceptual idea what a master’s thesis is yet, or why daddy has been so busy; you both keep me alert and on my feet, while putting immensely into perspective what is most important in life. Thanks to their mother – my dear girlfriend, Stine – for all your endless support; and for both pulling most of the weight at home and having to spend most nights alone during these final weeks, while additionally having to put up with my many annoyances. I couldn’t have done it without you. Thank you to my father, Brendan Reilly, who’s generally inquisitive mind and unorthodox approaches to conventional norms has been an inspiration. Although I do not always agree with VII Ronan Eric Reilly your alternative views or means of analysis, I have always considered our discussions to be positively challenging and very interesting. Last, but not least, a very special thank you is reserved for my beloved mother, Edith Reilly, who tragically passed away in 2007; the same year as research into conspiracy theories began emerging in a serious way. Your memory will forever be cherished, and your many extensively detailed opinions about the world – many of which tended to carry a largely conspiratorial central theme – have acted as motivation in choosing my topic of interest. May you for all eternity rest in peace. And to all of you who have not been mentioned, but who feel you should have been mentioned… Consider yourself mentioned! All in all, completion of this thesis has been an immensely long-winded process (not helped in any way at all by the global COVID-19 pandemic that went on for the final months of it, or the concussion I contracted which postponed completion by an additional semester). Although I am more than happy to disembark after a long journey, I am also truly grateful for the fact that my circumstances granted me the possibility to endure this voyage; both when enjoying the calm academic waters and when navigating the high methodological seas. Drammen, Norway December 15, 2020 VIII “The truth is in doubt here!”: Critically assessing sources and information in a conspiratorial world Table of Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Purpose of thesis .................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Focus areas and research questions ....................................................................................... 5 1.3 Structure and organization..................................................................................................... 8 2 Literary review ................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Conspiracy theories ............................................................................................................
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