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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, April 3, 2017 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, April 3, 2017 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Has Argentina’s Moreno Claims Cargill Ecuador Victory, Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Economy Started a Lasso Cries Foul JPMorgan Chase & Co. With more than 96 percent of W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, Stronger Recovery? votes counted, ruling party E.M. Warburg Pincus candidate Lenin Moreno had Dirk Donath secured 51.1 percent of the votes Senior Partner, compared with conservative Catterton Aimara challenger Guillermo Lasso’s 48.9 Barry Featherman percent. Senior Director, Page 2 International Government Affairs, Gilead Sciences Marlene Fernández POLITICAL Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, Venezuela Court Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim Reverses Move to President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Dissolve Congress Donna Hrinak Opposition leaders in Venezuela’s Argentine President Mauricio Macri has focused on implementing market-friendly economic President, Boeing Latin America policies since taking offi ce more than a year ago. // File Photo: Argentine Government. National Assembly said Sunday Jon Huenemann they will begin the process of re- Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, moving judges from the polarized Showing signs of recovery, Argentina’s economy grew 0.5 Philip Morris International nation’s Supreme Court. James R. Jones percent in last year’s fourth quarter as compared to the third, Page 3 Chairman, ManattJones Global Strategies Q the country’s statistics agency said March 21. The farm- Craig A. Kelly ing, energy and construction sectors are seeing increased POLITICAL Director, Americas International output, the agency said. Has Argentina’s economy reached bottom Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Paraguay Closes John Maisto and started to turn around? Are President Mauricio Macri’s economic Congress in Wake Director, U.S. Education policies the reason for recent gains, and will they be sustained? Will Finance Group of Fire, Shooting Nicolás Mariscal the economic gains be enough for Macri’s Cambiemos coalition to be President Horacio Cartes on Chairman, rewarded in the October midterm elections, or will the election spell Grupo Marhnos Saturday fi red his interior minister trouble for the president’s allies in Congress? Thomas F. McLarty III and chief of police and appealed Chairman, for calm after protests erupted Fri- McLarty Associates day over news of a secret Senate Carlos Paz-Soldan Claudio Loser, visiting senior fellow at the Inter-American vote that would enable him to run Partner, Dialogue, president of Centennial Group Latin America and for offi ce again in 2018. DTB Associates, LLP Page 2 Beatrice Rangel former head of the Western Hemisphere Department of Director, the International Monetary Fund: “Life is complicated for AMLA Consulting LLC A Cambiemos and President Macri ahead of the October elections. First, Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, the economic facts: GDP is expected to grow by 2.7 percent this year, Envases Venezolanos indicating an increase in per-capita income, after a three-year average Andrés Rozental President, Rozental & annual decline; infl ation remains high at about 30 percent a year, but Asociados and Senior Policy Advisor, Chatham House is declining and still refl ects the one-time effects of the unavoidable Shelly Shetty adjustments in energy prices; the external accounts are strengthening, Head, Latin America with foreign reserves having grown by more than $17 billion since the end Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc. Roberto Sifon-Arevalo of 2015, to the highest level recorded since 2011. Still, poverty, at about Managing Director, Americas 30 percent, remains high; real salaries have declined as unsustainable Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, Standard & Poor’s subsides were reduced; public fi nances are very weak and dependent on foreign fi nancing; and the peso is overvalued, except for traditional Cartes // Photo: Government of Paraguay. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, April 3, 2017 POLITICAL NEWS remove from Ecuador’s London embassy within NEWS BRIEFS 30 days if he won the runoff, Reuters reported. Moreno Claims Assange taunted Lasso over Twitter after the Mudslides in Colombia vote, suggesting that the businessman leave Kill 254 People Victory in Ecuador, Ecuador within 30 days instead. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said Lasso Cries Foul Sunday there are no more people offi cially Paraguay Congress missing after mudslides killed at least 254 Ruling party candidate and former vice presi- Closed in Wake of over the weekend in Putumayo province, dent Lenín Moreno claimed victory in Ecuador’s CNN reported. More than fi ve inches of rain presidential vote on Sunday, as supporters Fire, Lethal Shooting Friday night caused three rivers surrounding of conservative challenger Guillermo Las- the southern city of Mocoa to overfl ow and so clashed with riot police in major cities, Paraguay’s Congress remained closed and bury the town of 25,000 inhabitants in mud accusing authorities of permitting fraud in the guarded by armed police Sunday as investi- and debris. Santos said 170 victims had been election, the Associated Press reported. Sev- gators gathered evidence surrounding events identifi ed thus far, with 43 children among the eral thousand Lasso supporters were gathered Friday evening that led to the burning of the dead with 22 more hospitalized. A further 203 outside the electoral council headquarters in Senate building and death of an opposition people were injured, many severely. Quito as of midnight to protest in relative calm, youth leader at the hands of police, ABC Color according to the report. With more than 96 reported. President Horacio Cartes on Saturday percent of votes counted, Moreno had secured fi red his interior minister and chief of police Latin America Will Need 51.1 percent of the votes compared with and appealed for calm after protests erupted $350 Billion in New Friday over news of a secret Senate vote that would enable him to run for offi ce again in Aircraft by 2035: Report 2018, something the constitution has barred Latin America will require 2,570 new passenger since 1992 in the wake of a 35-year dicta- and freighter aircraft worth $350 billion be- torship. While the streets were for the most tween last year and 2035, Aerospace Technol- part subdued this weekend, small groups of ogy reported today, citing a new Airbus Global protesters were collecting signatures demand- Market Forecast report. The region’s growing ing the withdrawal the proposed amendment. middle class will double the size of Latin Cartes, a wealthy businessman who leads the America’s existing in-service fl eet of 3,000 pas- Moreno addresses supporters Sunday. // Image: TeleCiu- conservative Colorado Party, offered his “most senger and freighter planes over the next two dadano. sincere condolences” to the family of Rodrigo decades, the report predicts, a rate on par with Lasso’s 48.9 percent, according to the electoral Quintana, 25, the leader of the opposition Lib- the world’s annual average of 4.5 percent. council. The difference of more than 200,000 eral Party’s youth branch who was reportedly votes was called into question by Lasso sup- shot in the back by police with live ammunition porters, who cited exit polls indicating an oppo- Saturday as they raided party offi ces following site result. Lasso, 61, has called for a recount the riots on congress, adding that “the perpe- Japan Leads Investment in every province of the nation, but the electoral trators of this horrendous episode will face in $317 Million IDB Fund council’s head, Juan Pablo Pozo, has appealed justice and pay for their actions,” the Guardian Japan and a group of Latin American and to the opposition to recognise the results. reported. About 30 people were injured in the Caribbean countries will lead a $317 million International observers had been watching raid, including three lawmakers, while police capital replenishment of the Inter-American Sunday’s race for indications the “pink tide” said 211 people, some of them minors, were Development Bank’s Multilateral Investment of left-leaning governments that swept across arrested over the weekend, according to Fund, or MIF. Latin American and Caribbean Latin America during the natural resource Agence France-Presse. Paraguay’s lower house countries will provide $166.8 million to the boom of the last decade had receded further, could vote on the re-election proposal as soon MIF, with Japan donating $85 million, and the following conservative candidate gains recent- as Tuesday, when leaders are scheduled to set balance provided by Spain, Canada, China, and ly in Argentina and Brazil. Leftist leaders in the chamber’s agenda. However, fi remen have fi ve other European countries. Israel is also Venezuela and Bolivia were quick on Sunday to warned the Congress building may be at risk becoming a donor to the MIF, which historically congratulate Moreno on his victory. A Moreno of collapsing as a result of the fi re, potentially had received most of its funding from the win would also come as a relief for WikiLeaks delaying legislative sessions for some time to United States aimed at poverty reduction, the founder Julian Assange, who Lasso vowed to come, Reuters reported. IDB said in a statement Sunday. COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, April 3, 2017 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 Venezuela Court exporters. Even considering these negative traordinary earnings. Therefore, sectors that factors, there is a positive tendency in the were already healthy are now even stronger. Reverses Decision economy, mostly a consequence of the These statistics do not allow us to envision to Dissolve Congress government policies.
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