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The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated The National Weather Service Modernization and Associated Restructuring A Retrospective Assessment During the 20th century, the National Weather Service was unable to keep up with the pace of technological advances and as a result was nearly obsolete by the 1980s. Between 1989 and 2000, the nation invested an estimated $4.5 billion to modernize and restructure the National Weather Service. Efforts to modernize the National Weather Service succeeded in achieving major improve- ments for the weather enterprise. This report assesses the modernization effort and identifies lessons learned from the process. eather informa- Modernization and tion, especially Associated Restructuring, Wforecasts and and its impacts. At the warnings, can have request of Congress, the significant impacts on the National Research Council economy and is critical for convened a committee to the protection of life and evaluate the execution and property. The National impacts of Modernization Weather Service serves as and Associated the nation’s authoritative Restructuring, and identify source of weather infor- lessons learned that could The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System mation, providing routine (AWIPS)—a technologically advanced information support future improve- public, marine, and processing, display, and telecommunications system— ments to National Weather was an important part of the National Weather Service aviation forecasts, as well modernization and restructuring. Service capabilities. The as advisories and warn- Source: NWS Weather Forecast Office, Tallahassee, FL committee assessed six ings when conditions specific elements of the warrant. As the primary provider of weather and Modernization and Associated Restructuring effort: climate data in the United States, it is crucial that (1) Management and Planning; (2) Modernization of National Weather Service operations stay at the Technology; (3) Restructuring of Forecasts Offices forefront of technologies for observing, fore- and Staff; (4) National Centers; (5) Partnerships; casting, and understanding the weather. (6) Oversight and Advisory Groups. A follow-up The 20th century saw exponential growth in the report will present Phase II of this study, in which technological capabilities of weather observations the committee applies lessons learned to develop and forecasting, and it was difficult for the guidance on how best to plan, deploy, and oversee National Weather Service to keep pace. By the future improvements to the Weather Service. 1980s it became clear that the Weather Service Overarching Findings would need to modernize and restructure to take Overall, Modernization and Associated advantage of new technologies and provide better Restructuring successfully improved the weather weather services to the nation. Between 1989 and enterprise, leading to a greater integration of 2000, a national investment of $4.5 billion was science into weather service activities, and used to implement the Modernization and improved outreach and coordination with state and Associated Restructuring of the National Weather local government, emergency management, and Service. New observational and computational communities. By the 1980s the National Weather systems were planned and deployed, the network Service was nearly obsolete, and, therefore, the of National Weather Service field offices was $4.5 billion investment on modernization was both redefined, and the workforce was restructured. needed and generally well-spent. Furthermore, the Until now, there has been no comprehensive framework left in place after the modernization assessment of the modernization project, termed allows and encourages the continued evolution of National Weather Service technology, and to some • Clearly defined system-level requirements, and competent extent the workforce composition and culture. management of those requirements, are essential to any Lesson 1: If a science-based agency like the National Weather contractual acquisition of a major system Service, which provides critical services to the nation, waits • Statistical indicators of forecast and warning performance until it is close to becoming obsolete, it will require a complex are a major element for gaining and maintaining support for and very expensive program to modernize. implementing new technologies • It is necessary to establish comprehensive performance Management and Planning metrics at the beginning of a process, evaluate them Modernization and Associated Restructuring was a throughout the process, and reevaluate them after the large and complex project that required rigorous manage- process is complete. ment. Modernization efforts were implemented during a period of rapid technological change, including the Modernization of Technologies emergence of the internet, and involved the deployment To modernize its operations, the National Weather of a number of major technological systems across the Service developed five major technology upgrades (see nation. In addition, the project involved several federal Box 1). Problems encountered with implementing these agencies and the direct participation of three National technologies included lack of preliminary analysis and Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration line offices (the ensuing design problems, inadequate program manage- National Weather Service, the National Environmental ment, and poor contractor performance. However, these Satellite, Data, and Information Service, and the Office problems were successfully overcome and the major of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research). technology system upgrades were successfully executed. The major components of the modernization effort were These technology improvements allowed more uniform well-planned and completed largely in accordance to that radar coverage and surface observations across the United plan, although notable budget overruns and substantial States. For example, the Next Generation Weather Radar schedule delays occurred in nearly all the project network and Geostationary Operational Environmental elements. Executing Modernization and Associated Satellites dramatically improved the quantity and quality Restructuring brought about institutional and cultural of data available to forecasters, and enhanced the numer- changes at National Weather Service, largely for the ical weather prediction capabilities of the National better. Many of these institutional changes in manage- Weather Service. Replacing human observers with the ment structure, culture, processes, and partner relation- Automated Surface Observing System introduced signifi- ships have been retained, and will help National Weather cant gains, despite possible adverse effects on the climate Service continue to modernize. However, implementa- record and the loss of some important visual elements tion of a rigorous systems engineering process to of the observation. The Advanced Weather Interactive facilitate more effective management of the procurement Processing System has been a critical technological and development of large, complex systems appears not advancement that integrates data and information provided to have been institutionalized with the National Oceanic by the Modernization and Associated Restructuring and Atmospheric Administration. elements and makes them easily accessible to forecasters. Lesson 2: The budget, schedule, and technological issues encountered Box 1. Modernization Technologies during execution of Modernization and Automated Surface Observing System, an automated electronic sensor instrument Associated Restructuring reflected the system to replace manual weather observations at all National Weather Service (and many traditional challenges of large projects: other) surface observing locations inexperience of the government Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD), a network of advanced Doppler radars to project-level leadership, shifting budget measure motion of the atmosphere responsible for severe weather such as tornadoes, detect constraints, ambitious technology leaps, heavy rainfall and hail, and increase lead times for prediction of severe weather events and flash floods. multi-party stakeholder pressures, Satellite Upgrades, a new series of geostationary meteorological satellites to provide cultural inertia, contractor shortcomings, higher spatial and temporal resolution imagery and data to aid shorter-range forecasts and and oversight burdens. Each represents warnings, and a new series of polar orbiting meteorological satellites to provide improved, important lessons for the National all-weather, atmospheric data to assist in longer-term forecasting Weather Service with regard to future National Centers Advanced Computer Systems, a ten-fold increase in computing power projects of a similar nature. to support the National Centers. Along with numerical weather prediction model • Expertise in system design, procure- improvements, this improved national guidance for short-range forecasts and warnings and ment, and deployment is essential to provided more reliable guidance for medium- and long-range forecasts successful implementation of any Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), a workstation-centric, complex technical upgrade advanced computer and communications system to help forecasters integrate all sources of weather data. The system allows communication among weather forecast offices and • Dedicated leaders are crucial for distribution of centrally collected data and centrally produced analysis and guidance resolving roadblocks
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