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Att Skydda Civilbefolkningen Från Krigets Verkningar

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Att Skydda Civilbefolkningen Från Krigets Verkningar FOI MEMO Projekt/Project Sidnr/Page no Befolkningsskydd – nutid och 1 (148) framtid Projektnummer/Project no Kund/Customer Myndigheten för samhäll- E13601 skydd och beredskap (MSB) FoT-område Handläggare/Our reference Datum/Date Memo nummer/number Per Larsson 2017-06-07 FOI Memo 6121 Att skydda civilbefolkningen från krigets verkningar Underlag till MSB:s regeringsuppdrag om ett nytt svenskt befolkningsskydd Per Larsson & Carl Denward Datum/Date Sida/Page FOI MEMO 2017-06-07 2 (148) Titel/Title Memo nummer/number Att skydda civilbefolkningen från krigets verkningar FOI Memo 6121 Datum/Date Sida/Page FOI MEMO 2017-06-07 3 (148) Titel/Title Memo nummer/number Att skydda civilbefolkningen från krigets verkningar FOI Memo 6121 Innehåll I Underlag till regeringsuppdraget 1 Inledning – regeringsuppdraget 8 1.1 Disposition och läshänvisningar........................................................ 9 2 Underlag till förmågebedömning för befolkningsskydd 11 2.1 Skyddsrum ...................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 Att beakta i skyddsrumsfrågan framöver .................................... 19 2.2 Utrymning och in- och utflyttningsförbud ........................................ 20 2.3 Inkvartering ..................................................................................... 21 2.4 Alarmering ....................................................................................... 22 2.4.1 Utomhuslarm ............................................................................... 22 2.4.2 Viktigt Meddelande till Allmänheten (VMA)................................. 22 2.4.3 Larm via TV, radio, internet och mobiltelefon ............................. 23 3 Förslag till premisser till grund för ett befolkningsskydd 24 3.1 Ett delvis nytt befolkningsskydd till innehåll och benämning .......... 24 3.2 Gränssnittet mellan att värna civilbefolkningen (befolkningsskydd) och att säkerställa samhällets funktionalitet ................................... 27 3.3 Förslag på normer, principer och ansatser som bör vara styrande för ett modernt befolkningsskydd .................................................... 30 3.3.1 Fokus på det direkta skyddandet och lindrandet av lidande och umbärande .................................................................................. 30 3.3.2 Enkelhet och flexibilitet ............................................................... 31 3.3.3 Hela befolkningen och det fysiska kulturarvet i hela landet ska skyddas – men aktuell hotbild styrande för geografiska prioriteringar ................................................................................ 31 3.3.4 Förmåge- och resursgrunden utgörs av individuell egenförmåga och frivillighetsengagemang ....................................................... 32 3.3.5 Ett allriskperspektiv på krigets verkningar .................................. 32 3.3.6 Ett för-under-efter-perspektiv på krigets verkningar ................... 33 3.3.7 En legal grund i folkrätten och konventionsskydd för kulturföremål i krig ....................................................................... 33 3.3.8 Ansvars-, närhets- och likhetsprincipen ...................................... 33 3.3.9 Den lokala och regionala hjälp- och biståndsplikten ................... 34 3.3.10 Åtgärder och verksamheter ska så långt som möjligt stärka både fredstida krisberedskap och civilt försvar i krigstid ..................... 34 4 Förmågor relevanta för ett modernt befolkningsskydd 35 4.1 Arbetsgång ...................................................................................... 35 4.2 Förmågebaspaket ........................................................................... 40 Datum/Date Sida/Page FOI MEMO 2017-06-07 4 (148) Titel/Title Memo nummer/number Att skydda civilbefolkningen från krigets verkningar FOI Memo 6121 4.3 Hotspecifika förmågor (CBRNE och psykologiska hot) .................. 46 4.4 Individens förmågeutvecklingsbehov ............................................. 53 4.4.1 Generiska förmågor.................................................................... 53 4.4.2 Specifika förmågor ..................................................................... 55 5 Avslutning 57 5.1 Att värna civilbefolkningen över tid – individens väl och ve i ett helhetsperspektiv ........................................................................... 57 5.2 Förmågebaspaketet ....................................................................... 57 5.3 Befolkningsskyddet behöver ha en personell förstärkning av civilpliktiga ...................................................................................... 58 5.4 Utbildning som vital del av samhällets förmågeutveckling ............. 58 5.5 Kommunerna nyckelspelare i befolkningsskyddet ......................... 58 5.6 Frivilliga resursgrupper (FRG) ........................................................ 59 5.7 Länsstyrelserna kraftsamlar räddningstjänsten ............................. 59 5.8 Värdlandstöd för befolkningsskyddet ............................................. 60 5.9 Gränssamverkan ............................................................................ 60 5.10 Befolkningsskydd på ockuperat område ........................................ 60 5.11 Genderperspektiv och grupper med specifika behov ..................... 60 Bilaga 1 (figur förmågekomplex) 61 II Förstudie 1. Inledning – förstudie 63 1.1 Studiens design .............................................................................. 63 1.2 Disposition ...................................................................................... 65 2. Målet att skydda civilbefolkningen mot krigets verkningar 66 2.1 Begreppet och verksamheten befolkningsskydd .................................... 67 2.1.1 Skydd av kulturarvet ........................................................................... 70 2.2 Skydda civilbefolkningen – studiens definition och avgränsningar ........ 71 3. Att skydda civilbefolkningen – en historisk belysning 75 3.1 Från luftskydd till civilt försvar baserad på fredstida krisberedskap – den historiska utvecklingen kring skyddet av civilbefolkningen vid krig 75 3.2 Historiskt identifierade verksamheter och resurser kopplade till målet att ”värna civilbefolkningen” under krig ............................................... 84 Datum/Date Sida/Page FOI MEMO 2017-06-07 5 (148) Titel/Title Memo nummer/number Att skydda civilbefolkningen från krigets verkningar FOI Memo 6121 3.3 Att skydda civilbefolkningen – en internationell utblick ........................... 87 3.3.1 Inledning ............................................................................................... 87 3.3.2 Skyddsrum............................................................................................ 89 3.3.3 Andningsskydd ..................................................................................... 90 4. Krigets verkningar mot civilbefolkningen 93 4.1 Kriget och dess förlopp ............................................................................ 95 4.2 Kriget – befolkningens beteende och förväntningar ................................ 99 4.3 Kriget – generiska typer av hot mot civilbefolkningen................... 100 4.3.1 Död, skador och förstörelse från stridsaktiviteter med olika typer av militära vapen ....................................................................... 101 4.3.2 Undergrävd vilja och förmåga att bjuda motstånd på grund av påverkanskampanjer och psykologiska operationer ................. 110 4.3.3 Brist på livsförnödenheter................................................................... 110 4.3.4 Förstörd och långvarigt utslagen samhällsviktig verksamhet (infrastruktur) ............................................................................. 110 4.3.5 Förlust av försörjning .......................................................................... 110 4.3.6 Försämrad allmänhälsa hos befolkningen ......................................... 110 4.3.7 Fördrivning.......................................................................................... 111 4.3.8 Förtryck och övergrepp ...................................................................... 111 4.4 Förtydliganden av hoten för att tydliggöra förmåge- och resursbehov . 111 4.5 Kriget och skyddet av civilbefolkningen – ett allriskperspektiv .............. 114 5. Dagens förmågor och resurser för att skydda civilbefolkningen vid krig – några exempel 117 5.1 Individen – medvetenhet, samhällstillit och egenförmåga vid krigsfara och krig .......................................................................................... 118 5.2 Frivilligresurser ...................................................................................... 120 5.3 Utbildade och krigsplacerade civilpliktiga för skydd av civilbefolkningen ...................................................................................................... 120 5. 4 Alarmering – teknisk infrastruktur ......................................................... 121 5.4.1 Utomhuslarm ...................................................................................... 121 5.4.2 Viktigt Meddelande till Allmänheten (VMA) ........................................ 122 5.4.3 Larm via TV, radio, internet och mobiltelefon..................................... 122 5.5 Skyddsrum ............................................................................................ 122 5.6 Utrymning och in- och utflyttningsförbud ............................................... 128 5.7 Inkvartering
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