The Research Road We Make: Statistics for the Uninitiated Saviour Formosa PhD Sandra Scicluna PhD Jacqueline Azzopardi PhD Janice Formosa Pace MSc Trevor Calafato MSc 2011 Published by the National Statistics Office, Malta Published by the National Statistics Office Lascaris Valletta VLT 2000 Malta Tel.: (+356) 25997000 Fax:(+356) 25997205 / 25997103 e-mail: [email protected] website: http://www.nso.gov.mt CIP Data The Research Road We Make: Statistics for the Uninitiated – Valletta: National Statistics Office, 2011 xxii, 279p. ISBN: 978-99957-29-14-1 For further information, please contact: Unit D2: External Cooperation and Communication Directorate D: Resources and Support Services National Statistics Office Lascaris Valletta VLT 2000 Malta Tel: (+356) 25997219 NSO publications are available from: Unit D2: External Cooperation and Communication Directorate D: Resources and Support Services National Statistics Office Lascaris Valletta VLT 2000 Malta Tel.: (+356) 25997219 Fax: (+356) 25997205 Contents Page Preface vii Foreword viii Acknowledgements ix Abbreviations xi Glossary xiii Imagery xix Introduction xxi Chapter 1 What is Statistics? An Intro for the Uninitiated! 1 Why Statistics? 3 The Tower of Babel Syndrome or Valhalla? 4 The ‘fear of stats’ 5 Myths and Realities 5 Chapter 2 Research Methodology 7 The Research Design 9 Social Scientific Research Methods 10 Research Problems 11 Sampling 11 Causality, Association and Correlations 12 Methods of Research 13 Chapter 3 DIKA 25 Why is Research Necessary? 29 Forms of Research 31 Types of Research 32 How Research is Done 33 Techno-Centric or Socio-Technic Approach? 35 Use and abuse of statistics 36 Avoiding Research 38 Data 39 Information 41 Knowledge 42 Chapter 4 Structuring Your Research 45 A Datacycle Approach 47 Design 47 Choosing the correct mining/trawling tools 49 Matrixing 50 Data gathering 58 Analysis 59 Reporting 64 Chapter 5 From Concept to Tangibility 71 Basic Concepts 73 Data issues – the structures 74 Data Measurement: The Scales 80 Page Chapter 6 Data Acquisition and Data Quality 85 Data Categories 87 What is a Metadata? 88 Data Sourcing 90 Data Capture 92 Quality 92 Error 92 Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sourcing 92 Capture Modes 94 Chapter 7 Visualisation 97 Graphing 103 Charting tools 107 Mapping 108 GIS as a tool for scientific research 109 GIS tools 119 Chapter 8 Mind Mapping 121 What is a model? 123 Who are the players? 130 Conceptual Modeling 130 Content Analysis 132 CRISOLA Model 134 Chapter 9 Tools 143 Which Tools are Available? 145 Spreadsheets 147 Macros 149 Dedicated Statistical Software 149 Quantitative 149 Qualitative tools 160 Geo-statistical tools 164 Online Tools 166 Chapter 10 IT/IS and Databases 171 Moving from basic tools to databases 173 From a Mind to an EAR 176 Querying language: SQL 179 Chapter 11 Statistical Testing 183 Generic Statistics Publications sorted by Publication Date 185 Thematic Publications sorted by Theme 187 Basic Statistics 189 Statistical Tests 203 Spatial Statistics 204 Chapter 12 Case Studies 207 A taste for working with Census data 209 Using the Census for research 212 In an Archive 221 Page Chapter 13 Data Sources 227 Analogue – a library/archive approach 229 Specialised libraries 230 Digital – online 231 Chapter 14 Ethical Issues 235 What is Ethics? 237 Criteria for Ethical Research 237 Referencing 238 Plagiarism 238 How to compile a reference section 239 Bibliography 243 Appendix – Questions and Answers 249 Ending 279 Preface Today the use of statistics has evolved far beyond its genesis. The use of statistics by individuals and organisations has become ubiquitous, leading to a wider informed knowledge-base that starts from the process to gather and understand the data up to the end phase where informed decisions need to be made. This is the case across the different thematic domains ranging from the natural and social sciences, medicine, business, and other areas. Statistics can be used and unfortunately, abused; the latter leading to the generation of serious errors in both description and analysis, in turn leading to misleading interpretations. Few are immune to such error generation and the need is felt to ensure that we are aware of the responsibilities researchers have in generating statistics. Therefore, when the National Statistics Office was approached, early in 2010, by a group of researchers to assist in publishing a book on statistics intended for persons who are non-conversant with this discipline, I readily accepted, as they had found a niche I believe was untapped locally. This idea was appropriately launched during a World Statistics Day seminar, marked for the first time ever on 20 October 2010. The feedback was positive and encouraging. This book introduces statistics to higher education students who are not necessarily mathematically oriented, and whose perception of statistics may be tinged with fear. Its scope is not to review equations and formulae, but to outline the importance of the strict rules that govern research methodology and the sound interpretation of results. In other words, it identifies uses and abuses of statistics, and is a useful text even for those who may eventually specialise in statistics. In many respects, therefore, it is different from other mainstream statistics textbooks. While the views expressed by the book’s authors do not necessarily reflect NSO’s official stance, such initiatives are to be commended as they help promote statistics, which are so vital in today’s day and age. The ultimate aim of this publication is to educate, and to promote statistical literacy. This forms an intrinsic part of NSO’s long-term vision. Michael Pace Ross Director General National Statistics Office August 2011 vii Foreword Statistics is a vital part of social science training. In the United States, statistical understanding is required for undergraduate academic degrees across the social sciences. It is considered an indispensable component of research methods and a prerequisite for postgraduate study, which typically includes further study in advanced and specialised statistical topics. In the United Kingdom, statistical analysis is fast becoming a priority for postgraduate training although undergraduate degrees in sociology and related fields tend to place less emphasis on quantitative methods. British undergraduates gain experience in use of qualitative research techniques through completion of the undergraduate dissertation. In my experience, as a visiting lecturer at the Institute of Criminology, the University of Malta tends to blend the best of both traditions. Maltese students have the opportunity to learn statistical techniques at the undergraduate level, and further, to incorporate these in methodological designs for undergraduate dissertations. The Research Road We Make: Statistics for the Uninitiated represents a perfect example of the Maltese tradition of pursuing the best of both worlds. The authors begin with an explanation of the research process, which situates statistical analysis within overall project design. Next, the discussion examines the types of data suitable for statistical techniques and provides a guide to data collection. The authors then move on to issues of interpretation of findings and presentation of results; this discussion includes an explanation of the very latest methods of visual projection. The final sections explain computer- assisted techniques and tools for data management. Overall, the text provides an engaging, substantive explanation of statistical analysis with reference to interesting, real-world issues important for social research. In addition, the authors provide a bridge between concepts and techniques, many of which have been developed in Europe and North America, with applications to the Maltese context. To carry out effective and meaningful social science research, it is important to consider Malta’s history, culture, and geography, and the discussion here achieves this with a range of examples from the Maltese Islands. The Research Road We Make represents an indispensable resource for success in statistical research. Paul Knepper, PhD Department of Sociological Studies University of Sheffield viii Acknowledgements A word of thanks goes to the following persons who authored the book. Saviour Formosa and Sandra Scicluna for authoring the book based on their work in the quantitative/spatial and qualitative fields respectively. Jacqueline Azzopardi who had the unenviable task of reviewing the chapters, making sense of the runaway sections, drafting all the changes as well as authoring the Questions and Answers chapter. Not an easy job that one! Especially for an expert in the qualitative field faced with formulae and spatial reviews! Janice Formosa Pace for authoring the Ethics chapter and reviewing the referencing throughout the book. Trevor Calafato for authoring the qualitative section of the Tools chapter. Ramon Azzopardi for the chapter title graphics; a talented budding artist! Michael Pace Ross (Director General NSO) and Catherine Vella for book review and editing, Claire Meli for book setting and the following NSO personnel for their continuous support: Silvana Mizzi, Rose Marie Portelli, Stephania Farrugia Dimech, Jesmond Galea, Margaret Bugeja, Joanna Bonnici and Shawn Borg. The book is dedicated to the Staff of the Institute of Criminology at the University of Malta and the Staff at the National Statistics Office. The front image, entitled kampane 3 weeks was created by Saviour Formosa as part of the analysis on the