ZAMBIA Food Security Outlook Update February 2012 Food security conditions remain stable as the lean seasons ends Key Messages Figure 1. Most likely food security outcomes, February - March 2012 Acute food insecurity is minimal as the lean season comes to an end in February. Large in‐country stocks and continued maize sales by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) at fixed prices have kept maize and meal prices stable, benefiting poorer, market‐dependent households. Maize prices are expected to remain stable up to April and thereafter fall steeply as the new harvest starts entering the market and seasonal foods become increasingly available, reducing market demand. Isolated flash floods have been reported in Mambwe district and Kabwe Urban. District Disaster Management Teams under the coordination of the Regional Disaster Management Office are conducting assessments and assisting affected households. Source: FEWS NET/ZVAC Figure 2. Most likely food security outcomes, April - The country will carry large stocks of maize (~ 1 million MT) June 2012 into the next marketing season. Effective planning for storage of the new harvest is needed. Updated food security outlook through June 2012 Food security in Zambia remains stable following three consecutive surplus production seasons. Nine months into the 2011/2012 marketing and consumption season, the acute food security situation is generally favorable with only minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). Maize supplies are good and no staple food shortfalls have been reported in any part of the country. This late in the marketing season, most households (both urban and rural) are dependent on the market for staple food. Market prices and supplies Source: FEWS NET/ZVAC For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference During the first half of the marketing season (May to October), Table, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) purchased about 1.7 million MT of maize from small scale farmers, 30 percent above their target of 1.3 million MT. This record purchase suggests widespread participation by farmers across the country, likely driven by the significantly above market prices (~35‐40% above market price) offered by the Agency. The price of US$260/MT also attracted maize from neighboring countries through informal trade. Between June and November, there was a significant increase in maize imports, especially from Tanzania and Mozambique (Figure 3). The imports dropped steeply in December FEWS NET Zambia FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed Lusaka 1717 H Street NW in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United Tel: +260 1 262 750/1 Washington DC 20006 States Agency for International Development or the United States [email protected] [email protected] Government. www.fews.net/zambia ZAMBIA Food Security Outlook Update February 2012 following the end of the FRA annual maize purchase Figure 3. Recorded volume of informal maize trade (MT) program. Since then, maize imports have fallen short of exports. Exports to Zambia’s major informal market, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had 2,500 until recently been generally stable (much longer 2,000 than usual) an indication of good supply of maize 1,500 within Zambia. Informal maize exports are expected 1,000 to start increasing by May when the main harvest becomes available. 500 ‐ The large maize volumes purchased by the FRA, Oct July Dec Aug Nov May Sept June combined with an estimated 300,000 MT of April March Feb'11 carryover stocks from the previous marketing season Jan'2012 resulted in government stock levels of about 2 Total Export Total Import DRC ‐ Export million MT at the end of October, putting pressure on already limited grain storage capacity. In an effort to reduce maize losses, the Government directed the Source: FEWS NET Agency to sell 1,067,000 MT before the 2011/2012 crop comes onto the market in May/June. As of the Figure 4. Retail maize price trend for selected districts end of January, 444,600MT had been sold, of which (ZMK/18Kg) half were formal exports to Southern and Eastern African countries and the rest local sales. Local sales 35,000 to local millers and communities from FRA depots 30,000 were made at prices of ZMK 675/kg for the rural 25,000 areas and ZMK 850/kg for the urban areas. The 20,000 presence of the FRA on the market offering maize at 15,000 fixed prices in an oversupplied market has crowded out the private sector and distorted the maize 10,000 prices. In the months ahead, it is unlikely that they 5,000 will manage to sell off the remaining balance of ‐ about 500,000 MT, as directed by Government, before the new maize harvests comes in given that a number of local millers have good stocks on hand, Livingstone Nchelenge Luangwa grain traders are purchasing only limited amounts as the market is oversupplied, the lean season is ending Lusaka Kitwe Monze and green foods will become increasingly available Source: Central Statistical Office reducing local maize and meal demand. Because of the good market supply, maize prices generally remained stable through January in both urban and rural markets, with some major provincial markets such as Kitwe (Copperbelt Province), Chipata (Eastern Province) and Kasama (Northern Province) recording declines. Luangwa district of Lusaka Province, a predominately maize deficit area also recorded marginal decrease in maize prices of about 7 percent. The low and stable maize prices in both rural and urban markets have greatly benefited market dependant consumers, especially poorer households. Seasonal progress Although there was a slow start to the 2011/2012 rainy season in the southern half of the country, rains picked up in mid January and mid February with widespread heavy rainfall that mitigated extended dry spells. Since late December, the country has received normal to below normal rainfall and this has still been generally conducive to favorable crop development in most areas. Most crops affected by the December dry spell have since recovered, though yields may have been negatively impacted. Reports of stunted and water stressed crops have also been received, mostly from the traditionally low producing areas. The water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for Zambia indicates that rainfall totals and distribution have been favorable for maize crop production in most parts of the country though the index remains lower in the extreme southeastern parts of the country due to the erratic rainfall experienced in those areas in January and February (Figure 6a). The soil water index also supports this assessment (Figure 6b). Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ZAMBIA Food Security Outlook Update February 2012 Due to the above market prices offered by the FRA during the Figure 5a. Rainfall Difference from average Feb 1-10 current marketing season, most small scale farmers planted maize at the expense of other crops. On the other hand, commercial farmers have cut back on maize and gone into more rewarding crops such as soybeans due to the distortions in the maize market. Currently, most crops are at the critical stages of late flowering and fruit formation (grain filling) when adequate moisture is essential. Field reports indicate that the crops are mostly in good to moderate condition in different parts of the country. The maize planted in early November has reached maturity and green maize is available on markets as of February, signaling the start of the end of the lean season. During the remainder of the production season, cropping conditions are expected to remain favorable in most parts of the Figure 5b. Rainfall Difference from average Feb 11- country. However, because of the erratic pattern of rainfall thus 20 far, especially in the southern half of the country, a significant reduction in output is expected compared to last year, though average production is still considered likely. The rainfall pattern in southern Zambia has been similar (but less intense) to that of last season when the start was erratic and a prolonged dry spell set in during the middle of the season in February. The areas most affected by this rainfall pattern are parts of Southern (parts of Kazungula/Livingstone, northern parts of Mazabuka and Choma, Gwembe valley) and Lusaka Province (parts of Chongwe and Kafue). Flooding Earlier in the cropping year the seasonal outlook indicated a likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall in the southern Figure 6a. Maize WRSI Feb 11-20 half of the country during the January to March period and this raised concerns regarding the possibility of extensive flooding in flood‐prone areas. However, rainfall in most areas has been less than expected and thus far only two isolated flash floods have been reported, one in the urban area of Kabwe district (early February) and another in Mambwe district of eastern Zambia (late February). The Kabwe flooding was as a result of poor drainage in part of the district. Excess water due to heavy rainfall was quickly drained, no relocation of the affected households was immediately necessary, and a quick response by Figure 6a.Maize Soil Water Index SWI Feb11-20 government (who provided maize meal, chlorine and lime) ensured stable food security conditions and prevented water borne disease outbreaks. The situation in Kabwe requires a longer term solution with involvement of the residents in unplanned settlements. The Disaster Management Regional Office with relevant partners (Council Engineers, The Army, Zambia National Service and the Road Development Agency are on the ground mapping out a permanent solution to the drainage problem. Source: USGS/FEWS NET In the case of Mambwe district, the flooding was a result of both heavy rains and water flows from nearby highlands (Mambwe being a valley area).