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Mediterranean Security After EU and Nato Enlargement

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Mediterranean Security After EU and Nato Enlargement © Rubbettino Military Centre for Strategic Studies - Rome ZTBW Bundeswehr Transformation Center - Berlin © Rubbettino Mediterranean security after EU and Nato enlargement A joint research project between Military Centre for Strategic Studies (Rome) and Bundeswehr Transformation Center (Berlin) ZTBw team Ralph Thiele, Wolf Kinzel, Frank Kolstelnik, Gerd Föhrenbach CeMiSS team Carlo Finizio, Olga Mattera, Paolo Quercia Rubbettino © Rubbettino Copyright © by CeMiSS Centro Militare di Studi Strategici Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 Roma (RM) e-mail: [email protected] © 2005 - Rubbettino Editore 88049 Soveria Mannelli - Viale Rosario Rubbettino, 10 -Tel. (0968) 662034 www.rubbettino.it © Rubbettino Sommario 1 Foreword p. 7 2 Executive Summary 9 3 Part One: Introduction 3.1 Creating the “Common Security Area Europe” 17 3.2 Living the EU-NATO Strategic Partnership 19 4 Part Two: Perceptions of the enlargements 4.1 Effects of EU and NATO Enlargements on the Mediterra- nean: Italian and German Points of View 25 4.1.1 Italian interests 25 4.1.2 German interests 34 4.2 Core Findings of selected national perceptions 42 4.2.1 The new EU member states 42 4.2.1.1 Cyprus 42 4.2.1.2 Malta 43 4.2.1.3 Slovenia 44 4.2.2 The Would-be EU-Members 46 4.2.2.1 Turkey 46 4.2.2.2 Bulgaria 50 4.3 Core findings on regional points of view 51 4.3.1 The Mediterranean Dialogue Countries and NATO 51 4.3.1.1 The Eastern Mediterranean Countries: Egypt, Jordan and Israel 51 4.3.1.2 The Western Mediterranean Countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya 55 5 © Rubbettino 4.3.2 The Mediterranean Dialogue Countries and the European Union p. 64 4.4 The Mediterranean - Adriatic Dimension: Croatia, Serbia Montenegro, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina 68 5 Part Three: Initiatives to enhance the security situation in the Mediterranean. An Analysis of effectiveness and development options 5.1 Upgrading the Mediterranean Dialogue 75 5.1.1 Programmes 2003 77 5.1.2 Options for Future Development 78 5.2 The EU and the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership 80 5.2.1 Security Interests of the EU 81 5.2.2 An emerging New Policy 82 5.2.3 ESDP and the Mediterranean 84 5.2.4 An EU Strategy Against the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction 85 5.2.5 Options for Future Developments 86 6 Conclusions 6.1 EU-NATO Security Co-operation in the Mediterranean - 87 A Strategic Partnership 88 6.2 Conflict prevention and crisis management within sub-regional security regimes through different comprehensive approaches 91 6.3 Encouraging and Supporting developments towards good governance, human rights and democracy 92 6.4 Policy options to induce development within the Mediterranean Dialogue Partner countries 94 6 © Rubbettino 1. Foreword Europe’s security landscape has changed profoundly since 1989. While the region’s two pre-eminent political organisations, NATO and the EU, have achieved remarkable success in promoting stability and democracy in the Eastern and South-Eastern part of the continent, the security situation which Europe is facing today in the Southern Mediterranean is in many respects worse than a decade ago. It is now the time to broaden Europe’s strategic per- spective. The Southern Mediterranean is still politically unstable and econom- ically weak. The hope of a peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the wake of the 1993 Oslo Accords has all but vanished. Nevertheless, mili- tant Islam is spreading. Terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology are changing the strategic environ- ment of the whole region. Yet there are also encouraging signs. Libya recent- ly decided to stop its nuclear programme and open it to international inspec- tions. Iraq is no longer ruled by a ruthless dictator and will certainly develop into a more democratic state, despite the efforts by some groups to incite chaos. Most importantly, as the 2002 Arab Human Development Report of the U.N. Development Programme illustrates, the call for democratic reforms in the Arab world, though still feeble, is getting louder. This study shows that there is a need for a new approach to the region, de- spite of the various European programmes, partnerships and dialogues which have been evolving in the Mediterranean and proven to be useful up to a point. Put simply, NATO and EU members should push harder for political and eco- nomic reforms in the Mediterranean. Key objectives of this new approach should be to reinforce good governance, i.e. the commitments to democratic reforms, human rights and the rule of law, and enhance regional and co-operation sub- regional Co-operation as a major prerequisite for stability and prosperity. The two main instruments for advancing these key objectives would be firm conditionality and a strategic partnership between NATO and the EU. To be sure, conditionality has been a tool of the EU’s co-operation with part- 7 © Rubbettino ner countries for a long time. However, with regard to the Mediterranean it has been employed reluctantly in order not to jeopardise modest progress. A new understanding of conditionality would lead to a more vigorous applica- tion of that principle. The recognition that NATO lacks economic incentives and that the EU is not yet perceived a serious security policy actor should prompt both organisations to fuse their initiatives into one common strategy for the region. A strategic partnership between NATO and the EU towards the Mediterranean would create the maximum synergy of resources by mak- ing all tools at their disposal available for the implementation of the strategy. This study presents the findings of a research project conducted jointly by the Centro Militare di Studi Strategici (CeMiSS) and the Bundeswehr Transformation Center (ZTransfBw). CeMiSS and ZTransfBw held several workshops in Rome and Berlin during the 2003 Italian presidency of the Eu- ropean Union. We would like to thank our staff for carrying out the research for this project. Particular thanks go to Olga Mattera and Paolo Quercia at CeMiSS and Wolf Kinzel, Frank Kostelnik and Gerd Föhrenbach at ZTransf- Bw. Brigadier General Carlo Finizio Colonel Ralph Thiele Director, CeMiSS Commander, ZTransfBw Rome Berlin / Waldbröl 8 © Rubbettino 2. Executive Summary This study examines the possibilities of an intensification of the co-oper- ation between NATO and the EU on the one side and the Mediterranean Arab countries and Israel on the other. At the same time it constitutes a practical in- strument that could stimulate both the co-operation within NATO and the ESDP process of the EU. This study could not only help to explain the Ital- ian and German interests and positions vis á vis the Mediterranean countries but it could also lead to the development of joint initiatives that would profit from the respective Italian and German experiences and contacts since the foundation of NATO and the EU. As the conference of the Cairo Library with Non Governmental Organi- sations in March 2004 – opened by the Egyptian President Mubarak – showed, the Arab states are beginning to feel the need for modernisation and sustained development. Disquieting developments in the socio-economic and demographic fields have been going on for decades. The problems have accu- mulated and are now forming fertile soil for the growth of militant Islamist fundamentalism. NATO and the EU have reached a watershed in history by opening up for new member states from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At the same time NATO and the EU have agreed to enhance their co-operation concerning the developing of the ESDP-dimension and of common security policy initiatives. Therefore they have created a “Common Security Area Europe” where stabil- ity, peace and development are guaranteed for the time being. This new en- larged Security Area will enable NATO and EU to enter in a new phase of di- alogue and co-operation with the Mediterranean countries. The terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid once more demon- strated that the security of the European countries is closely linked and in- terrelated to the security and stability of the Mediterranean countries and that Islamist fundamentalist terrorism is a common enemy to all our soci- eties. 9 © Rubbettino In order to enhance co-operation and promote mutual trust and under- standing, NATO in 1994 and EU in 1995 began to develop partnership and co-operation programmes (NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue and EU’s Barcelona Process) with the countries in the Mediterranean region. Lately both organisations have intensified their efforts by establishing the 2003 Work-programme and the so-called “Option Paper” of February 2003. Since 2001, new developments have taken place. This fact should be seen as an encouragement of the intensification of the Mediterranean dialogue with our partner countries: 1) the security concern related to the proliferation of weapons of mass de- struction, the war on terrorism, the spread of Islamist fundamentalism and illegal immigration and the trafficking of drugs and small arms in combination with the concerns about guaranteed energy supply and free access to the Mediterranean markets; 2) the need to remedy the shortcomings of the existing dialogue that are con- stituted by the following factors: - the self funding basis for the Mediterranean partner countries - the lack of possibilities for the Mediterranean countries to influence the work programme - the still existing mistrust of the Mediterranean countries. They fear that the dialogue might be a postcolonial attempt of the west at gain- ing
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