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Evaluation Mongolia CPS Final Mongolia Review Validation of the Country Partnership Validation Strategy Final Review, 2017–2020 Independent Evaluation Raising development impact through evaluation Validation Report April 2021 Mongolia: Validation of the Country Partnership Strategy Final Review, 2017–2020 This is a redacted version of the document, which excludes information that is subject to exeptions to disclosure set fourth in ADB’s Access to Information Policy. Independent Evaluation: VR-25 NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government of the Mongolia ends on 31 December. (ii) In this report, “$” refers to United States dollars. (iii) For an explanation of rating descriptions used in ADB evaluation reports, see ADB. 2015. 2015 Guidelines for the Preparation of Country Assistance Program Evaluations and Country Partnership Strategy Final Review Validations. Manila. Director General Marvin Taylor-Dormond, Independent Evaluation Department (IED) Deputy Director General Véronique N. Salze-Lozac'h, IED Director Joanne Asquith, Thematic and Country Division, IED Team leader Tomoo Ueda, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED Team members Sergio Villena, Evaluation Officer, IED Jullie Ann Palomares, Evaluation Assistant, IED The guidelines formally adopted by the Independent Evaluation Department (IED) on avoiding conflict of interest in its independent evaluations were observed in the preparation of this report. To the knowledge of IED management, there were no conflicts of interest of the persons preparing, reviewing, or approving this report. In preparing any evaluation report, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the IED does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Abbreviations ADB – Asian Development Bank ANR – agriculture, natural resources, and rural development CAREC – Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation COBP – country operations business plan COVID-19 – coronavirus disease CPS – country partnership strategy CPSFR – country partnership strategy final review CPSFRV – country partnership strategy final review validation report EFF – Extended Fund Facility EIRR – economic internal rate of return FDI – foreign direct investment GAP – government action plan GDP – gross domestic product HDI – Human Development Index ICT – information and communication technology IED – Independent Evaluation Department IMF – International Monetary Fund JFPR – Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction MDG – Millennium Development Goal MFF – multitranche financing facility NDS – National Development Strategy NO2 – nitrogen dioxide NPL – non-performing loan NSO – nonsovereign operations PBL – policy-based lending PCR – project completion report PMT – proxy means testing PM2.5 – particulate matter ≤ 2.5 micrometers in diameter PRC – People’s Republic of China PSD – private sector development PSM – public sector management SDG – Sustainable Development Goal SMEs – small and medium-sized enterprises SO2 – sulphur dioxide SPS – sanitary and phytosanitary TA – technical assistance WUS – water and other urban infrastructure and services Currency Equivalent (as of 28 February 2021) Currency unit – togrog (MNT) MNT1.00 – $0.00035144 $1.00 – MNT2,845.43 Contents Acknowledgments ix Executive Summary xi Chapter 1: Rationale and Context 1 Validation Purpose and Rationale 1 Country Context 2 Recent Economic Performance 3 Key Challenges 8 Government Development Plans in the Context of the Country Partnership Strategy, 2017–2020 10 Country Partnership Strategy and ADB Portfolio 12 Chapter 2: Assessment of the Mongolia Country Program 15 A. Relevance 15 B. Effectiveness 23 C. Efficiency 32 D. Sustainability of the Country Program 36 E. Development Impacts 39 F. ADB and Borrower Performance 43 G. Quality of the Country Partnership Strategy Final Review 45 Chapter 3: Conclusions, Lessons, Issues, and Recommendations 46 Conclusions 46 Lessons 47 Key Issues 48 Recommendations 49 Appendixes 50 1. ADB Country Portfolio For Mongolia During the Country Partnership Strategy, 2017–2020 51 2. Sovereign Loans and Grants Planned and Approved in the Mongolia Country Partnership Strategy, 2017–2020 from ADB Funds 70 3. Linked Document 73 4. Self Assessments of Completed Projects 74 Acknowledgments This validation report is a product of the Independent Evaluation Department (IED) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The validation was led by Tomoo Ueda. Team members were Sergio Villena and Jullie Ann Palomares. The report benefited from the overall guidance of IED Director General, Marvin Taylor-Dormond; Deputy Director General, Véronique Salze-Lozac’h; and Directors Joanne Asquith and Walter Kolkma (until 18 December 2020). Consultants who supported the preparation of the validation report were Javzandulam Ganbold, Alexis Arthur Garcia, Paul Holden, and Elizabeth Lat. Valuable comments for the draft report were received from Barry Hitchcock, former ADB Mongolia Resident Mission Country Director (2001–2006); and Hyun Son, Principal Evaluation Specialist, IED. The team is grateful to ADB staff at headquarters and the Mongolia Resident Mission, officials from the Government of Mongolia, and other stakeholders for useful discussions and inputs. The Independent Evaluation Department retains full responsibility for this report. Executive Summary The Independent Evaluation Department (IED) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has validated the Mongolia country partnership strategy (CPS) final review, 2017–2020. The validation concluded that the program was successful on the borderline. It found the program was relevant, effective, less than efficient, likely sustainable, and with satisfactory development impact. The final review rated ADB’s program successful: highly relevant, effective, less than efficient, and likely sustainable, with a satisfactory development impact. The validation drew from information presented in the CPS final review; relevant project documents; analysis of available country data; and interviews with a range of stakeholders and ADB staff. Due to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, interviews with government officials and other stakeholders were conducted online, and no country visit was undertaken. Country Context to a slump in commodity prices, substantial public spending, and a sharp decline in the exchange Mongolia has an area that covers 1.6 million rate. The growth rate declined steeply from the square kilometers (km2) and is the world’s most earlier rapid expansion of the economy (real GDP sparsely populated country. Its population as of increased by over 40% from 2011 to 2013) to mid-2020 was estimated to be 3.3 million and annual real GDP growth of 7.9% in 2014 and 2.4% population density was less than two persons per in 2015. Growth then resumed and was stable km2. Nevertheless, Mongolia is highly urbanized— during 2017–2019. During the 2016 crisis, the nearly 70% of residents live in urban areas. Most fiscal deficit increased to the equivalent of 15% of live in the capital of Ulaanbaatar, which is home to GDP, the exchange rate depreciated by 25%, and over half the country’s population. foreign exchange reserves were rapidly depleted. Over the past quarter of a century, Mongolia has Before the COVID-19 crisis struck, the economy experienced rapid growth, with gross domestic appeared to be improving, with robust growth product (GDP) per capita increasing by a factor of forecast and optimistic prospects for continued three. Over the same period, GDP growth in real debt reduction. In the 3 years following the 2016 terms averaged over 6% per year. GDP amounted crisis, the fiscal deficit improved by 17-percentage to $13.6 billion in 2019, about $4,350 per capita. points of GDP, as revenues rose to 31.3% of GDP, Mongolia has a high Human Development Index and expenditures declined to 28.7%. International (HDI) score and is ranked 92 out of 189 countries. reserves, which had fallen to the equivalent of From 1990 to 2018, its score rose by 26%. 2.4 months of imports, rose to 5 months of However, 28% of the population live below the imports. However, risks remain because of the national poverty line of $2.70 per day. high cost of debt servicing and the exposure of the economy to fluctuations in commodity prices. Mongolia has vast mineral resources, which are currently valued by the International Monetary Mongolia has moved toward middle-income Fund (IMF) at $1 trillion–$3 trillion. Coal, copper, country status, driven by export-led industries in and gold are the main minerals mined, along with mining and, to a much lesser extent, agriculture. molybdenum, silver, and uranium. Minerals However, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a constitute more than 80% of exports. substantial negative impact on the economy in the Nevertheless, the transition to greener energy by form of slowing exports, a widening current major economies—including the People’s Republic account deficit, and a fall in foreign direct of China (PRC), Mongolia’s main purchaser of investment (FDI). Mongolia’s GDP is estimated to coal—could have an impact on coal exports. have declined by nearly 10% in the first half of 2020. Declining budget revenues and an The economy is vulnerable to shifts in commodity increasing fiscal imbalance will likely lead to a rise pricing. In 2016, the economy went into crisis due in public debt. Access to finance has declined, xii Mongolia: Validation of the Country Partnership Strategy Final Review, 2017–2020 with a fall in domestic credit,
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