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Weekly Market Outlook: Delta Bad Hand?

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Weekly Market Outlook: Delta Bad Hand? WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Delta Bad Hand? AUGUST 12, 2021 The potential economic fallout from surging infections and hospitalizations Table of Contents Lead Author due to the Delta variant of COVID-19 is Top of Mind ....................................... 4 Ryan Sweet a downside risk to our forecast for Senior Director-Economic Research growth in the second half of this year, but the drag should be significantly less Week Ahead in Global Economy .. 6 [email protected] than prior waves. Geopolitical Risks .............................7 Asia-Pacific Still, the daily CNN Business/Moody's Katrina Ell The Long View Economist Analytics Back-to-Normal Index, a U.S. ....................................................................... 8 compilation of government statistics Europe ............................................................... 11 Eric Chiang and third-party data that measures Economist Asia-Pacific ..................................................... 12 where the economy is compared with Shahana Mukherjee before the pandemic, has taken a Ratings Roundup ............................ 13 Economist meaningful step back in recent weeks. The BNI hit a pandemic peak of 93.5% Market Data .................................... 16 Europe in mid-June. It was 92% last Friday. The Ross Cioffi biggest declines in the BNI have been in CDS Movers .....................................17 Economist the South and West, where vaccination Issuance ........................................... 19 U.S. rates are relatively low and infections have increased the most. Adam Kamins Director In Florida, where Delta is an especially serious problem for the hospital system, the BNI Michael Ferlez has fallen from more than 102% in mid-June, meaning that it had more than recovered Economist from the pandemic recession, to less than 97%. Ryan Kelly Data Specialist We expect the variant to start fading soon much like it has in the U.K., which seems to be leading the U.S. by a few weeks, and thus not affect the economy to an extent that we Contact Us will need to downgrade our upbeat economic outlook. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics Americas +1.212.553.1658 is conducting its employment survey for August this week, and it wouldn’t be surprising if [email protected] Delta takes a bite out of August jobs. Europe +44.20.7772.5454 The Delta variant could have implications for U.S. inflation. Tighter restrictions, if [email protected] implemented, would be disinflationary in some states. Meanwhile, we are monitoring the Asia (Excluding Japan) situation in the Asia-Pacific region, which could lead to higher inflation in the U.S. Several +85 2 2916 1121 countries in the region have tightened restrictions forcefully, including temporary factory [email protected] closures in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Some countries are also closing ports where Japan COVID-19 cases are rising; this could add to the supply-chain disruptions that have +81 3 5408 4100 [email protected] already lengthened U.S. suppliers' delivery times. Moody’s Analytics and Moody’s Investors Service maintain separate and independent economic forecasts. This publication uses the forecasts of Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s Analytics markets and distributes all Moody’s Capital Markets Research materials. Moody’s Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page. MOODY’S ANALYTICS CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK 1 To highlight this, we calculated z-scores. These measure the reduced the supply of new cars and raised prices at the standard deviations above or below the mean for various dealership. Low new-car inventories have increased demand measures of supplier deliveries we closely track, including for used cars and trucks. However, growth in used-car prices the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys. The has begun to moderate, suggesting the largest gains are z-score shows how many standard deviations each measure behind us. of supplier deliveries is from its mean; currently, they are extremely elevated. New- and used-vehicle prices added 0.1 percentage point to growth in the headline CPI in July, compared with the 0.4- The Delta variant could magnify supply-chain issues, which percentage point contribution in June and 0.3-percentage would boost U.S. inflation as the semiconductor shortage point boost in May. Used-car prices are still more than 20% remains, raising prices for vehicles and consumer electronics. above their underlying trend. Deviations from trend in used- Port closures could also increase shipping costs. As for the car prices don't normally persist for an extended period of growth outlook, tighter restrictions in the Asia-Pacific region time. could also slow the replenishing of inventories in the U.S. Odds are that the CPI for used-car prices will move closer to Checking in on inflation trend during the next year, which will be disinflationary. For It's early, but there are tentative signs that some of the perspective, if the gap between the actual used-car CPI and temporary factors behind the past surge in U.S. inflation are trend is closed, that would reduce year-over-year growth in fading. The CPI rose 0.5% in July, in line with our and the the headline CPI by 0.28 of a percentage point. consensus forecast but a deceleration from the 0.9% gain in June. Used-vehicle prices rose only 0.2% in July after No implications for the Fed jumping 10.5% in June and 7.3% in May. Past gains in used- Incoming inflation data has few implications for the timing vehicle prices were attributed to lean inventories. New- of the Fed tapering its monthly asset purchases or when it vehicle prices were up 1.7% after rising 2% in June. Energy will begin to raise interest rates. Our baseline forecast prices increased 1.6% while food prices were up 0.7%. assumes the Fed adopts a balanced approach to tapering Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3%, a touch the monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities buys, weaker than either we or the consensus expected. On a but some Fed officials favor focusing initially on MBS year-ago basis, the core CPI was up 4.2% in July. because of the red-hot housing market. The reopening of the economy is a one-time event that is During a crisis, Fed MBS purchases support housing as a boosting a number of components of the CPI, including buyer of last resort. During the pandemic they have helped lodging away from home, vehicle rentals, and airfares along the housing market but narrowed mortgage spreads. Yet it is with admission to sporting and other events. Based on their not just the Fed that is behind the booming housing market. shares of the headline CPI, these added 0.1 percentage point Fundamentals are a bigger driver. Demographics and pent- to the gain in July, identical to that in each of the prior two up demand have led to a surge in home sales. Some fear a months. bubble, but this housing market is significantly different from the last bubble. Lending requirements are more Other one-time factors boosting inflation are the fiscal stringent today than 20 years ago, when tightening came in stimulus and global semiconductor shortage. Both have MOODY’S ANALYTICS CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH / WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK 2 efforts to limit subprime lending. Unlike in the mid-2000s, supported by a demographic tailwind. The issue is on the people can actually afford the homes they are buying. supply side. New- and existing-home inventories are lean. The demand-supply imbalance is the primary reason for The Fed’s MBS purchases have helped lower borrowing costs house prices' recent runup, not the Fed. for potential homebuyers, which has boosted sales. At first glance, there is no correlation between year-over-year Tightening cycle will differ from markets view growth in the Case-Shiller price index and the change in the We don’t expect the first rate hike until early 2023, which Fed’s MBS holdings. Yet since MBS purchases first occurred assumes that inflation moderates later this year and in the in 2009, the correlation coefficient is 0.1. We double- first half of next year. Financial markets expect this checked to make sure that the MBS share of all assets held tightening cycle to be gradual. They have priced in about outright on the Fed’s balance sheet is not what matters. The 125 basis points of tightening by the end of 2028. Also, over correlation between house price growth and the MBS share the next few years the Fed is expected to be more aggressive of total assets held outright by the Fed is -0.05 since 2009. than the Bank of England and the European Central Bank but less so than the Bank of Canada. It is difficult to see how Correlations change significantly if we focus on Fed MBS the Fed could normalize rates as slowly as the markets are purchase binges, including in 2009 and since the pandemic pricing in with the economy expected to be at full began. For example, the correlation coefficient between employment and inflation firmly above its 2% through-the- house price growth and MBS purchases since the pandemic business cycle target. started is 0.57. For another way to assess the amount of tightening this Correlation does not imply causation. Therefore, we used cycle, we turn to the inertial Taylor rule endorsed by Fed Granger causality tests to see if there is a causal relationship Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. This modification of the between house price growth and the Fed’s MBS purchases, Taylor rule has a coefficient of zero on the unemployment and which way it ran. We tested it with various lags, and gap, a 1.5 coefficient on the inflation gap, or the difference MBS purchases were found to Granger-cause changes in between core PCE inflation and the Fed’s 2% longer-run house prices.
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