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Generation Adequacy Report ON THE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE IN FRANCE BALANCE SUPPLY-DEMAND ON THE ELECTRICITY - RCS Nanterre 444 619 258 • Conception & réalisation : ÉDITÈS - RCS Nanterre e 2007 EDITION GENERATION GENERATION ADEQUACY REPORT REPORT ADEQUACY GENERATION ADEQUACY REPORT on the electricity supply-demand EDITION balance in France 2007 RTE EDF Transport, Société anonyme à Directoire et Conseil de surveillance au capital 2 132 285 690 Société anonyme à Directoire RTE EDF Transport, Tour Initiale - 1, Terrasse Bellini - TSA 41000 92919 Paris La Défense cedex Tel: +33 (1).41.02.10.00 www.rte-france.com RTE EDF Transport S.A. cannot be held liable for direct or indirect damage of any kind resulting from the use of the data and information contained in the present document, and notably any operating, financial or commercial losses. GENERATION ADEQUACY REPORT on the electricity supply - demand balance in France 2007 EDITION Contents SUMMARY 6 1 INTRODUCTION 11 1.1 Framework of the Generation Adequacy Report 12 1.2 Objective and method 12 1.2.1 Objective 12 1.2.2 Limitations 12 1.2.3 Method 13 1.2.4 New features 13 1.3 Warnings 13 1.3.1 Validity of hypotheses 13 1.3.2 Confidentiality 14 2 DEMAND FORECASTS 15 2.1 Previous trends 16 2.1.1 The slowdown in demand growth 16 2.1.2 Weak demand growth in recent years 17 2.1.3 Demand by industry sector falling - tertiary sector rising 18 2.2 Energy policy context 19 2.2.1 The global context 19 2.2.2 The European action plan 20 2.2.3 French policy 20 2.3 Construction of scenarios 21 2.3.1 Determining factors of demand 21 2.3.2 Gross Domestic Product 21 2.3.3 Demographics and active population 21 2.3.4 DSM development 21 2.3.5 Hydrocarbon prices 22 2.3.6 Hydrocarbon - electricity price correlation 22 2.3.7 Scenarios adopted 22 2.4 Global energy forecasts 23 2.5 Impact of Demand Side Management 25 2.5.1 Method-related issues 25 2.5.2 Quantification of the effect of DSM in the different scenarios 26 2.6 Comparison with the previous Generation Adequacy Report published in 2005 27 2.6.1 Reasoning for downward revision 27 2.6.2 Comparison between the R2 scenario from the 2005 GA Report and the "Baseline" scenario in the 2007 GA Report 28 2.7 Comparison with external scenarios 30 2.7.1 The different approaches 30 2.7.2 The scope of the study 30 2.7.3 Example comparison 30 2.8 Comparison with other European countries 32 2.9 Power level forecasts 33 2.9.1 Actual demand peaks recorded 33 2.9.2 Peak load forecasts 33 2.9.3 Comparison with load forecasts from the 2005 Generation Adequacy Report 34 2.9.4 Demand response or load shedding by consumers 35 3 GENERATION SUPPLY 37 3.1 Overview of existing generation facilities 38 3.2 Nuclear generation 38 3.2.1 The existing nuclear fleet 38 3.2.2 Announced developments 39 3.3 Centralised conventional thermal generation 39 3.3.1 The existing nuclear fleet 39 3.3.2 Environmental restrictions 40 4 GENERATION ADEQUACY REPORTON THE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE IN FRANCE 2007 EDITION 3.3.3 The future of existing units 42 3.3.4 Projects to develop new facilities 43 3.4 Embedded conventional thermal generation 44 3.4.1 Overview 44 3.4.2 Combined Heat & Power (CHP) installations 44 3.4.3 Thermal installations running on renewable energy sources 45 3.5 Hydro generation 46 3.5.1 Existing fleet 46 3.5.2 Regulatory context 46 3.5.3 Prospects 47 3.6 Wind generation 47 3.6.1 The existing fleet 47 3.6.2 The development context 48 3.6.3 Expected performance levels 49 4 EXCHANGES WITH NEIGHBOURING POWER SYSTEMS 51 4.1 Interconnections with neighbouring systems 52 4.2 Energy exchanges 52 4.3 Contribution of exchanges to security of supply in France 53 5 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE 57 5.1 Capacity requirements 59 5.1.1 Adequacy criterion 59 5.1.2 Identification of requirements 59 5.1.3 Requirements identified 61 5.2 Probable medium-term trajectory – up to 2015 62 5.2.1 Supply-demand balance with probable trajectory 62 5.2.2 Sensitivity to faster growth in demand 64 5.2.3 Sensitivity to a reinforced DSM policy: 65 5.2.4 Sensitivity to greater development of generation from RES 66 5.3 Long-term outlook – 2020 68 5.3.1 Purpose and methods of exploring long-term possibilities 68 5.3.2 Sensitivity to demand 69 5.3.3 Sensitivity to generation supply 71 6 REGIONAL SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCES 75 6.1 The Provence Alps Côte d’Azur (PACA) region 77 6.1.1 Demand 77 6.1.2 Generation 78 6.1.3 Network 79 6.1.4 Risks to security of supply 79 6.1.5 Options for improving security of supply 81 6.1.6 Conclusion 82 6.2 Western France region 83 6.2.1 Demand 83 6.2.2 Generation 84 6.2.3 Network 84 6.2.4 Security of supply 85 6.2.5 Conclusion 87 7 CONCLUSION 89 APPENDICES 93 1 Sectorial analysis of energy demand 94 2 Detailed analysis of the effects of DSM measures 100 3 Wind generation 104 4 Supply–demand balance simulations 110 5 Shortfall analysis 114 5 SUMMARY Summary Under the terms of the Law of 10 February 2000, at DEMAND FORECASTS least every two years, RTE (Réseau de Transport d’Electricité), working under the aegis of the Two major developments have been observed since Government, establishes a multiannual Generation 2005, when the previous demand forecasts were Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand established. balance in France. A new regulatory framework specifies the methods to be used by RTE for draw- The first concerns the drop in electricity demand ing up this independent technical expert report. by heavy industry, which fell by 3.5% in 2005 and a further 0.8% in 2006. There has also been a The Generation Adequacy Report is one of the ele- significant reduction in consumption in the energy ments used by the Minister for Energy and the sector. (1) Government in general(1), to determine the The services Multiannual Investment Programme (referred to by The second development is the reinforcement of concerned are the the French acronym PPI) for investing in energy gen- actions to promote energy efficiency. The new General Directorate for Energy and Raw eration facilities, introduced by the above-men- French legislation and the European Commission is Materials (DGEMP), tioned law. RTE publishes the report, which also new action plan set down concrete objectives that and specifically the appears on-line on the operator's website www.rte- also affect the electricity sector. Strengthening of Directorate for Energy Demand and Markets france.com. This principle of transparency means building energy regulation, tax credits granted to (DIDEME). that the information can be circulated to all the equipment that is energy-efficient or uses renew- players involved in the power system and helps drive able energy and measures to promote labelling, the energy debate. RTE published a previous report Energy Savings Certificates, tend to achieve these in 2005, which was partially updated in 2006. objectives. The Generation Adequacy Report is part of meas- This context is accentuating the trend begun two ures aimed at ensuring the security of the French decades ago, of a change in electricity demand electricity supply. It is intended to identify the risks growth. The average annual growth rate currently of imbalances between electricity demand and the varies between 1 and 2%, in climate adjusted data, generation supply available to satisfy it over a peri- and energy intensity for electricity is dropping. od of around fifteen years. Consequently, it identi- fies the generation capacity required to meet peak In this context, demand grows by 1.3% per year demand. The choice of generation technologies to until 2010, and 1.0% over the following be developed, which is dictated by environmental decade, in the new baseline scenario used for and economic concerns, is not covered by the the Generation Adequacy Report, leading to Generation Adequacy Report, but is a matter for the annual energy demand of 534 TWh by the year other players involved in the French electric system, 2020 in France (excluding Corsica). In addition to and more generally, the orientations determined by this baseline scenario, there are also: the PPI. • a “high” scenario, in which electricity use is encouraged by better price competition, with In order to carry out the analysis of the overall sup- demand rising to 552 TWh by 2020; ply-demand balance in mainland France, RTE estab- • a “reinforced DSM” scenario, in which the lishes domestic electricity demand forecasts, which increased effects of a Demand Side Management it then compares with expected developments in policy lead to demand of 506 TWh in 2020; the the generating fleet. average annual rate drops below the 1% mark even before 2010; 6 GENERATION ADEQUACY REPORT ON THE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE IN FRANCE 2007 EDITION • and finally a “low” scenario, which in addition to prices. The impact of the development of heat the previous one, also includes the effects of weak- pumps on peak demand must also be monitored er economic growth, limiting demand to 493 TWh closely, as overall energy savings are not necessarily in 2020. accompanied by a similar reduction in cold weather conditions.
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