The effect of lockdown policies on international trade Evidence from Kenya Addisu A. Lashitew Majune K. Socrates GLOBAL WORKING PAPER #148 DECEMBER 2020 The Effect of Lockdown Policies on International Trade: Evidence from Kenya Majune K. Socrates∗ Addisu A. Lashitew†‡ January 20, 2021 Abstract This study analyzes how Kenya’s import and export trade was affected by lockdown policies during the COVID-19 outbreak. Analysis is conducted using a weekly series of product-by-country data for the one-year period from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020. Analysis using an event study design shows that the introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners led to a modest increase of exports and a comparatively larger decline of imports. The decline in imports was caused by disruption of sea cargo trade with countries that introduced lockdown measures, which more than compensated for a significant rise in air cargo imports. Difference-in-differences results within the event study framework reveal that food exports and imports increased, while the effect of the lockdown on medical goods was less clear-cut. Overall, we find that the strength of lockdown policies had an asymmetric effect between import and export trade. Keywords: COVID-19; Lockdown; Social Distancing; Imports; Exports; Kenya JEL Codes: F10, F14, L10 ∗School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Kenya. Email:
[email protected] †Brookings Institution, 1775 Mass Av., Washington DC, 20036, USA. Email:
[email protected] ‡The authors would like to thank Matthew Collin of Brookings Institution for his valuable comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the manuscript. 1 Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has spawned an unprecedented level of social and economic crisis worldwide.