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BUCKING the TREND Not All Companies Are Going to End the Financial Year 2013 on a Bad Note

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BUCKING the TREND Not All Companies Are Going to End the Financial Year 2013 on a Bad Note BUCKING THE TREND Not all companies are going to end the financial year 2013 on a bad note. Here are some companies that are expected to not only buck the trend, but also report strong growth for the March quarter AUTOMOBILES M&M (BSE Price in ~) CONSUMER ITC (BSE Price in ~) Ashok Leyland, 1,000 GOODS 350 Bajaj Auto, Eicher ITC will report 900 another quarter will have all seen 300 four quarters of no 708.50 of 20% growth, 800 growth or decline in 838.40 even as Hindustan 287.14 earnings. But M&M Unilever's growth 250 700 is the only company rates have been 226.30 with all four 600 moderating 200 quarters of growth Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 through FY13 Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 CAPITAL GOODS Shree Cement Cummins and Havells are CEMENT (BSE Price in ~) 5,000 the two exceptions of all Post a strong first half, four quarters of growth. cement earnings have declined recently. While, 4,000 L&T, posted a strong first 3252.80 Shree Cement will have all half, and is witnessing an 4005.15 earnings decline in the four quarters of strong growth, 3,000 second half. Crompton’s India Cements will report a earnings have collapsed fourth consecutive quarter of decline 2,000 by 64-84% in the last Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 three quarters of FY13 Cummins & Havells (BSE Price in ~) OIL & GAS TECHNOLOGY Havells 700 Reliance will report a Sector profit growth has 29% growth in earnings, decelerated to 15% in 226.30 its highest in the last 11 second half v/s 35% in 600 quarters. ONGC’s big first half, as the currency 226.30 earnings decline is due to impact has started 226.30 500 Q4 adjustments and waning. Infosys will report 226.30 base effect a marginal decline, while Cummins 400 TCS and HCL Tech continue Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 to be the growth leaders during the quarter Reliance Industries PRIVATE BANKS (BSE Price in ~) TCS, HCL Tech (BSE Price in ~) With the exception of 1,000 1,600 Federal Bank, every private 1191.35 1,400 900 bank will report growth of 1,200 740.80 20-30%. HDFC Bank will 1,497.30 TCS report 54 quarters of 30% 800 1,000 HCL growth. Other two banks 776.35 800 700 with consistent 30% plus 500.10 600 growth are IndusInd 740.45 600 400 (22 quarters) and YES Bank Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 (16 quarters) HDFC, INDUSIND & YES BANK OBC (BSE Price in ~) (BSE Price in ~) 800 PSU BANKS 400 620.54 HDFC Oriental Bank of Commerce 527.10 600 (OBC) will be an exception, 424.50 with a profit growth in the 300 Yes Bank March quarter. We model SBI 255.90 372.20 400 to report a decline, due to a 390.35 high base of March quarter 325.30 IndusInd 234.40 200 FY12 200 Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 Apr 2,’12 Apr 9,’13 WINNERS Estimates for the quarter ended March 2013 Net Profit (in ~cr) %chg* Shree Cement 315.80 113.30 HCL Technologies 984.90 69.30 YES Bank 361.90 33.20 Induslnd Bank 291.20 30.40 HDFC Bank 1,889.60 30.00 Reliance Industries 5,473.00 29.20 Oriental Bank of Commerce 330.10 24.60 Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) 3,626.60 23.70 ITC 1,939.80 20.20 Cummins India 164.60 13.90 Havells India 112.30 9.90 Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) 840.70 4.70 Source: Motilal Oswal Compiled by BS Research Bureau.
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