Changing Fortunes
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Mon Jul 09 2012 - B&T12434_ERIM_Omslag_Mees_9juli12.pdf CHANGING FORTUNES 266 HELEEN MEES HOW CHINA’S BOOM CAUSED THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Since the financial crisis in 2008 and the ensuing economic recession that rocked the world economy, plenty of blame has been going around. The chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, specifically singled out subprime mortgages and the Wall Street Changing Fortunes bankers that sold those mortgages. In bureaucratic jargon it is often dubbed a regulatory HELEEN MEES - Changing Fortunes oversight failure. This study, however, shows that the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary How China’s Boom Caused the Financial Crisis policy at the start of the new millennium triggered the U.S. refinancing boom in 2003 and 2004, spurring personal consumption expenditures through home equity extraction. The U.S. spending binge boosted economic growth and savings in China and oil-exporting nations. The build-up of savings in China, which are heavily skewed towards fixed income assets, depressed interest rates worldwide from 2004 on. The decline in long-term interest rates accounts for the U.S. housing boom. Despite popular belief, the proliferation of exotic mortgage products can hardly be faulted for the U.S. housing boom and eventual bust. Design & layout: B&T Ontwerp en advies (www.b-en-t.nl) Print: Haveka (www.haveka.nl) The Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is the Research School (Onder - zoek school) in the field of management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The founding participants of ERIM are the Rotterdam School of Management (RSM), and the Erasmus School of Econo mics (ESE). ERIM was founded in 1999 and is officially accre dited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). The research under taken by ERIM is focused on the management of the firm in its environment, its intra- and interfirm relations, and its busi ness processes in their interdependent connections. The objective of ERIM is to carry out first rate research in manage ment, and to offer an ad vanced doctoral pro gramme in Research in Management. Within ERIM, over three hundred senior researchers and PhD candidates are active in the different research pro - grammes. From a variety of acade mic backgrounds and expertises, the ERIM commu nity is united in striving for excellence and working at the fore front of creating new business knowledge. Erasmus Research Institute of Management - ERIM PhD Series Research in Management Erasmus Research Institute of Management - Tel. +31 10 408 11 82 Rotterdam School of Management (RSM) Fax +31 10 408 96 40 ERIM Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) E-mail [email protected] Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) Internet www.erim.eur.nl P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands Doctoral Committee: Promotor: Prof.dr. Ph.H.B.F. Franses Other members: Prof.dr. H.H. van Ark Prof.dr. G. Bekaert Prof.dr. C.G. de Vries Erasmus Research Institute of Management ERIM The joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management (RSM) and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at the Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.eur.nl ERIM Electronic Series Portal: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1 ERIM PhD Series in Research in Management, 266 ERIM reference number: EPS-2012-266-MKT ISBN 978-90-5892-311-0 © 2012, Heleen Mees Design: B&T Ontwerp en advies www.b-en-t.nl Cover photograph: Matthew Niederhauser This publication (cover and interior) is printed by haveka.nl on recycled paper, Revive®. The ink used is produced from renewable resources and alcohol free fountain solution. Certifications for the paper and the printing production process: Recycle, EU Flower, FSC, ISO14001. More info: http://www.haveka.nl/greening All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the author. For Willem May you live in interesting times (origin unknown, reputed to be a Chinese curse) ii Preface Pursuing a Ph.D. is one of the best decisions I have made in the past ten years. The rise of China and the financial crisis seem to have been cut out for me as topics for research. In the past 30 months I have had the opportunity to go to China frequently and meet and work with many Chinese. During my travels I became much less critical of the Middle Kingdom, even to the point that I feared Stockholm syndrome. The recent events involving human rights activist Chen Guangcheng and politician Bo Xilai may serve as a fresh reminder that China is not like any other country. First and foremost I want to thank my parents. My mother gave me my insight in economics and my father my aptitude for writing. I thank Philip Hans Franses for his enthusiasm and generosity, the doctoral committee for the most valuable comments, Louis Kuijs for the wonderful lunches in Beijing and Massimo Giuliodori for his help with the structural VAR. I thank Rick van der Ploeg for his friendship. He disproves the Dutch aphorism een goede buur is beter dan een verre vriend, even though Justus van Diemen, my Amsterdam neighbor, serves as proof of it. Quite a few students have assisted me along the way. Many crossed my path with the help of Liesbeth Eelens. I owe gratitude to Bert de Bruijn, Mark Treurniet, Chao Fang, Andy Xiaoyang and especially Margriet Rijff. Raman Ahmed started out working for me as an assistant for the paper on Chinas household savings rate, but I am pleased that I can call him my coauthor now. Many thanks for the excellent administrative support I received from AE, and the help I got from the Erasmus datateam and library. I could not have wished for a better paranymph than Caroline van Dullemen. Finally, I want to thank Willem Buiter who was so kind to meet with me in the summer of 2008 in London to discuss possible avenues for a doctoral thesis. Our meeting proved to be the first tangible step towards this thesis. Heleen Mees New York City, June 2012 iii iv TABLE OF CONTENTS I INTRODUCTION 1 II U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND THE HOUSING BUBBLE 1. Introduction 5 2. U.S. MonetAry Policy 6 3. The Housing Bubble 11 4. Spending out of Home Equity, Consumer Credit and TAx Cuts 19 5. Chinas Current Account, GDP Growth and Savings Rate 28 6. The Interest Conundrum 31 7. Conclusion 40 References 41 Acknowledgements 45 Appendix 1 46 Appendix 2 50 III WHY DO CHINESE HOUSEHOLDS SAVE SO MUCH? TOGETHER WITH RAMAN AHMED 1. Introduction 55 2. Existing LiterAture 56 3. DatA on SAvings RAtes And RelAted VariAbles 57 4. EstiMAtion Results 59 5. CoMpAring Our Results to Previous Studies 63 6. Conclusion 65 References 67 Acknowledgements 67 Appendix 1 70 Appendix 2 72 IV ARE INDIVIDUALS IN CHINA PRONE TO MONEY ILLUSION? TOGETHER WITH PHILIP HANS FRANSES 1. Introduction 89 2. Existing LiterAture 90 3. The Occurrence of Money Illusion in ChinA 91 4. The Survey 92 5. Discussion and Conclusion 101 References 104 Acknowledgements 106 v V DOES NEWS ON REAL CHINESE GDP GROWTH IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? TOGETHER WITH PHILIP HANS FRANSES 1. Introduction 107 2. ReAl GDP Growth in ChinA 107 3. Modeling Stock Markets 108 4. Conclusion 110 Figures and TAbles 111 References 120 VI APPROXIMATING THE DGP OF CHINAS QUARTERLY GDP TOGETHER WITH PHILIP HANS FRANSES 1. Introduction 121 2. An AnAlysis of CuMulAtive GDP in Current Prices 122 3. The Three Components of Cumulated GDP in Current Prices 124 4. Analysis of Growth Rates at Constant Prices 124 5. Discussion and Conclusion 125 Figures and TAbles 127 References 144 VII SUMMARY IN ENGLISH 145 VIII SUMMARY IN DUTCH 147 ABOUT THE AUTHOR 149 vi I Introduction At the onset of the financial crisis, in 2007 and 2008, the main worry among commentators and economists was the growing purchasing power of sovereign wealth funds of authoritarian states like China and the United Arab Emirates. In a column in NRC Handelsblad in July 2007 I reckoned that, if China would keep accumulating foreign reserves the way it did, within 10 years China would be able to acquire all publicly listed companies in Europe. In June 2008 Laurence Kotlikoff predicted that Chinas foreign reserves, which amounted already to $2 trillion at the time, would multiply within a matter of years. But Kotlikoff had a very benign view of Chinas hoarding. He predicted that, by becoming the world's saver, China would also become the developed world's savoir, with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects (Kotlikoff et al., 2005). Ben Bernanke, who was Fed Governor at the time, had an equally sanguine reading of the global saving glut. In his by now infamous 2005 Sandridge lecture, Bernanke boasted about the "depth and sophistication of U.S. financial markets, which ( ) allowed households easy access to housing wealth." In September 2008 it all started to unravel quickly. Government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created in 1938 and 1970 in order to promote homeownership, were placed into conservatorship by the U.S. federal government, and little more than a week later the investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed. In order to prevent a full domino effect, the U.S. Treasury bailed out insurance behemoth AIG a few days after that. As stock markets tanked, the Dow Jones dropped more than 500 points on September 15, U.S. Congress consented to the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that authorized expenditures in the order of $700 billion for the purchase of assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen the financial sector.