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RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 3•No. 4•OCTOBER – DECEMBER•2005 Contents Passions Over Sovereignty Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Russia’s Global Strategies New Contours of the World Order Sergei Karaganov 8 The recent changes in the world situation have brought about several his- toric challenges to Russia, causing it to amend its policy. The rapid redis- tribution of forces on the world arena in favor of “New Asia” requires that Russia revise its economic and political priorities. Invigorating Russia’s Foreign Policy Sergei Kortunov 23 The Russian Federation should unequivocally and unconditionally define itself as a successor to the millennium-old Russia. It will have to assume responsibility for all of its past sins, including – unpleasant as this may be – the sins of the Soviet era. But the game is worth the candle: Russia will once again become the doer of world history, recognizable and understandable to all. Torn Between Two Choices Fyodor Shelov-Kovediayev 35 Russia’s move toward the West would be a lucrative decision, as well as nicely matching the psychological orientations of those individuals who cherish the idea of Russia’s great mission. By going West again, we will res- cue the entire European project and ourselves. An Outlook for Joint Countering of Security Threats 45 Vladimir Dvorkin For more than three decades, missile attack warning systems have been major spheres of strategic rivalry in relations between the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States. In a new environment, with enough common sense and political will, they could become a no less important fac- tor in the consolidation of efforts to meet global security challenges. Contents On the Threshold of G-8 Presidency Global Energy Agenda Vladimir Milov 60 Global energy security will top the agenda of the Group of Eight’s next summit, to be held in Russia’s St. Petersburg in 2006. If Russia consid- ers itself a full-fledged member of the ‘elite club,’ it must approach this discussion from the perspective of objective interests of the international community, rather than try to use the favorable situation on the market in its own interests. The Importance of Being Normal Vlad Ivanenko 69 The contrast between Russia and the G7 institutions is so stark as to be uninformative. On the other hand, a comparison with the Big Five group of middle-income large countries – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa – is more instructive. A “horse race” between Russia and the B5 group allows a prediction as to who among large non-OECD members is likely to increase its political weight and who will lag behind. Sources of Sovereignty Russia as a European Nation and Its Eurasian Mission 84 Valery Tishkov There is a new purpose in the continuation of Russia’s Eurasian civilizing mission within the next several decades. This purpose is to preserve the memory and identity of former Soviet citizens, concerned with its affiliation with the Soviet people, as well as to perform the function as a host country for all those who continue to feel an attachment to Russia and would even prefer to work and live in Russia. Sovereignty vs Democracy? Vladimir Ryzhkov 101 By a merciless twist of fate, those who seize power under the slogan of saving Russia are unable to maintain their power and, at the same time, place Russia on the brink of disaster. The unconditional implementation of popular sovereignty through free and honest elections protects the independence and integrity of Russia, together with its inner strength and freedom. My Perception of Russia Sven Hirdman 113 In Russia the State is the strongest concept, the Holy Russian State, whose main task is to defend the Russian nation and Russianness. Society in Russia is a much weaker notion as a consequence of the strong State. Russia has no long tradition of strong, well-developed non-government organizations. Restoring Russia’s Future Mikhail Leontyev 117 No kind of sovereignty or law can rely on legislative acts, contracts, coali- tions, guarantees or promises if it does not rely on power as well. In the end, the might of a country is the only basis for its sovereignty. The degree of might determines the ability of any state to make and implement sovereign decisions. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 3 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2005 Contents Statehood: The Regional Dimension 132 Leonid Grigoriev, Yulia Urozhaeva Russia clearly needs to rely on a couple dozen big and prosperous cities capable of developing rapidly in some key areas. These cities are located especially near seas and oceans, and at communication hubs in important border areas. It is equally important that they have a business and political elite with a sense of local patriotism; individuals who are not prepared to jump ship and move to Moscow at any moment, while sending their off- spring abroad with the bulk of their capital. North Caucasian Map of Threats Ivan Sukhov 150 The sweeping economic depression in the Caucasian territories has caused a rapid process of latent separation: the population is developing a steady estrangement from the state power and the rest of the country while simu- lating superficial loyalty to it. The Distant Near Abroad Russia’s Solitude After the CIS Mikhail Delyagin 160 The instability in some of the CIS countries has been brought about by the fail- ure of the post-Soviet integration process, which in turn was due to the insuf- ficient actions of the present Russian bureaucracy. A new generation of politi- cians must come to power that would be responsible to their country and capa- ble of modernizing Russia and, finally, carrying out post-Soviet integration. Democracy by Remote Control Vladimir Frolov 171 Elections in the CIS countries are turning from an instrument of the people’s will into a convenient pretext for outside multilateral interference. This new environment is aimed at creating international legal conditions for changing a regime by challenging election results, claiming as illegitimate the existing constitutional procedures and provoking an acute political crisis. Between Assimilation, Irredenta, and Globalization 177 Robert A. Saunders Russians have had acute difficulties in coming to terms with their status as minorities in the unwelcoming — sometimes openly hostile — successor states of the Soviet Union. Severed mentally, politically, and geographical- ly from their homeland, these “new” immigrants have had to rethink what it means to be part of a diaspora community and to mentally place them- selves within that conceptual space. Personage Fernando Henrique Cardoso: “We Need More Democracy to Tame Markets” 190 You can compare globalization with the beginning of industrialization in Europe in the early 19th century when the workers were prepared to break the machinery because they were against it. To be against globalization is a similar situation, to some extent. If Karl Marx were still alive he would say: “You people are crazy. This is the means to progress.” RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 3 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2005 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Vladimir POTANIN Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman (Chairman) Interros Holding Company Martti AHTISAARI Irina KHAKAMADA Vyacheslav NIKONOV (Finland) (Deputy Chairman) Sergei GENERALOV Helmut KOHL (Germany) Association for the Protection Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY of Investors’ Rights Alexei ARBATOV Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Andrei KUZYAEV Lev BELOUSOV Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) Mikhail KOZHOKIN Boris KUZYK C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV New Concepts and Programs Carl BILDT Vladimir RYZHKOV Holding Industrial Company (Sweden) Sergei LAVROV (in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK Valery OKULOV Vladimir GRIGORYEV (Germany) Alexander LIVSHITS Aeroflot JSC (in a personal capacity) Anatoly TORKUNOV Vladimir LUKIN Nikolai TSVETKOV James HOGE (U.S.A) Lord William WALLACE Uralsib Financial Corporation Vladislav INOZEMTSEV Fyodor LUKYANOV (Great Britain) (Editor-in-Chief) Ruben VARDANYAN (Chairman, Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Troika-Dialog Group Board of Advisors) Vladimir MAU (in a personal capacity) Simon VAYNSHTOK Igor IVANOV Thierry de MONTBRIAL Igor YURGENS Transneft JSC (in a personal capacity) (France) Alexander ZHUKOV Victor VEKSELBERG Karl KAISER (Germany) Sergei ZVEREV SUAL-Holding Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV BOARD OF ADVISORS Sistema JSFC Vladislav INOZEMTSEV, Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY FOUNDERS: Chairman Leonid GRIGORIEV Mark SHKUNDIN Anatoly ADAMISHIN Alexander LOMANOV Alexander YURIEV COUNCIL ON FOREIGN Olga BUTORINA AND DEFENSE POLICY INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN• UNION OF INDUSTRIALISTS •Newspapers: Izvestia, Moscow News, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Sovershenno Sekretno, AND ENTREPRENEURS Trud, Vremya Novostey News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti, Rosbalt • •Radio Station Echo of Moscow IZVESTIA • NATIONAL DAILY PUBLISHED BY LEGAL PR PARTNER GLOBUS PUBLISHING HOUSE CONSULTANCY KROS Public Relations KLISHIN & PARTNERS Company RUSSIAN EDITION Attorneys at Law IS PUBLISHED WITH PARTICIPATION OF Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev Director General Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition FOREIGN AFFAIRS Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Editorial Office: Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Robert Bridge Computer Makeup Lyubov Ryklina Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite
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