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Contemporary Amperex Technology China Consumer Discretionary 30 August 2018 China New Energy Vehicles Battery study: emerging giants ahead of the curve We forecast China’s battery shipments to show a CAGR of 41% over 2017-20E on an NEV sales CAGR of 39% Likely near-term pain from high pricing pressure, but could be positive Kelvin Lau for market leaders as they gain market share (852) 2848 4467 Initiating on CATL with a Buy (1); reiterating Buy (1) calls on Guoxuan [email protected] and BYD; pecking order: CATL, Guoxuan and BYD Jay Lu (852) 2848 4970 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 52 China Consumer Discretionary 30 August 2018 China New Energy Vehicles Battery study: emerging giants ahead of the curve We forecast China’s battery shipments to show a CAGR of 41% over 2017-20E on an NEV sales CAGR of 39% Likely near-term pain from high pricing pressure, but could be positive Kelvin Lau for market leaders as they gain market share (852) 2848 4467 Initiating on CATL with a Buy (1); reiterating Buy (1) calls on Guoxuan [email protected] and BYD; pecking order: CATL, Guoxuan and BYD Jay Lu (852) 2848 4970 [email protected] What's new: In this report, we analyse the growth prospects of China’s Key stock calls new energy vehicle (NEV) market, EV battery supply and demand, and New Prev. industry development from now until 2020. Taking into account likely strong Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) Rating Buy market growth as well as cuts to NEV subsidies, we are positive on the Target 86.00 outlook for market leaders, especially those with cutting-edge technology. Upside p 22.9% Industry consolidation looks set to continue, with many small players likely Guoxuan High-Tech (002074 CH) to be squeezed out before they can reach the finish line. Also, we initiate on Rating Buy Buy Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) with a Buy (1) rating. Target 17.80 22.00 Upside p 34.6% What's the impact: NEV battery demand likely to rise in 2018-20E, with BYD (1211 HK) Rating Buy Buy NCM becoming the major battery type. We expect China’s EV battery Target 67.00 75.00 shipments to reach 105GWh by 2020E, representing a CAGR of 41%, Upside p 39.1% backed by a robust NEV CAGR of 39% and increasing average energy Source: Daiwa forecasts capacity per vehicle. We believe NCM will be the major battery type for PV batteries by 2020, accounting for c.90% of the market, while NCA is likely to gain a c.5% market share in PVs as Tesla production begins in China. Although we expect LFP to remain the major LiB type in e-buses for safety reasons, it is likely to continue losing market share to NCM in 2018-20E. Pricing pressure set to continue, but positive for leading players in paving way for market-share gains. We forecast the industrial battery ASP to continue to decline significantly over 2017-20E, due to increasing market competition from a likely supply-demand imbalance going forward and ongoing NEV subsidy cuts. Therefore, gross margins are likely to be squeezed further, with economies of scale and advanced technology becoming the keys to survival. We believe the decline in profitability after the subsidy cut will force weaker players to leave the market. Competition with global players to come. We believe China’s leading LiB makers’ technology is not too far behind that of the global players, especially CATL, which looks set to compete with LG Chem and Samsung SDI globally. In China, competition with international makers may arise after 2020E, by which time the NEV subsidy scheme will be phased out. What we recommend: We are positive on the NEV battery sector, with Buy (1) ratings on CATL (300750 CH, CNY69.99), Guoxuan (002074 CH, CNY13.22) and BYD (1211 HK, HKD48.15). CATL is our top sector pick, backed by its edge in technology and earnings outlook, followed in order by Guoxuan and BYD. The key downside to our sector view: lower-than- expected NEV new-car sales and higher-than-expected pricing pressure. How we differ: Unlike some in the market, we use bottom-up analysis to assess the prospects of China’s EV battery industry over 2018-20E. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 52 China New Energy Vehicles: 30 August 2018 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg BYD 1211 HK 48.15 Buy Buy 67.00 75.00 (10.7%) 1.224 2.061 (40.6%) 1.549 3.054 (49.3%) Contemporary Amperex Technology 300750 CH 69.99 Buy 86.00 1.529 2.050 Guoxuan High-Tech 002074 CH 13.22 Buy Buy 17.80 22.00 (19.1%) 0.753 0.756 (0.4%) 0.841 0.896 (6.1%) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts China: NEV production and forecasts by segment Production volume 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E China NEV production 374,357 518,581 810,624 1,107,312 1,545,808 2,157,948 PV 214,283 322,679 551,617 796,535 1,178,872 1,735,771 BEV 150,528 248,450 449,544 665,325 997,988 1,496,982 PHEV 63,755 74,229 102,073 131,210 180,884 238,789 CV 112,296 135,240 104,934 107,401 110,682 114,672 BEV 88,248 115,664 88,556 94,299 100,200 106,287 PHEV 24,048 19,576 16,378 13,102 10,482 8,386 Special Vehicle 47,778 60,662 154,073 203,376 256,254 307,505 BEV 47,778 60,662 154,073 203,376 256,254 307,505 YoY growth (%) China NEV production 301% 39% 56% 37% 40% 40% PV 238% 51% 71% 44% 48% 47% BEV 222% 65% 81% 48% 50% 50% PHEV 284% 16% 38% 29% 38% 32% CV 332% 20% -22% 2% 3% 4% BEV 589% 31% -23% 6% 6% 6% PHEV 82% -19% -16% -20% -20% -20% Special Vehicle 1074% 27% 154% 32% 26% 20% BEV 1074% 27% 154% 32% 26% 20% Source: Chinaev, Daiwa forecasts China: average battery energy capacity per vehicle and forecast kWh per vehicle 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E PV BEV 22.3 32.3 27.0 33.0 37.0 40.0 PHEV 14.0 13.9 14.8 15.0 16.0 16.0 CV BEV 101.9 131.9 153.5 155.0 155.0 155.0 PHEV 25.0 30.6 34.8 35.0 36.0 36.0 Special Vehicle BEV 37.7 51.1 53.2 55.0 60.0 65.0 Source: Chinaev, atk, Daiwa forecasts China: power battery shipment and forecasts by segment GWh 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E PV 4.3 9.1 13.7 23.9 39.8 63.7 BEV 3.4 8.0 12.2 22.0 36.9 59.9 PHEV 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.9 3.8 CV 9.6 15.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.8 BEV 9.0 15.3 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.5 PHEV 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Special Vehicle 1.8 3.1 8.2 11.2 15.4 20.0 BEV 1.8 3.1 8.2 11.2 15.4 20.0 Replacement demand 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.5 4.9 Total 15.8 28.5 37.4 52.3 74.6 105.4 Source: atk, Daiwa forecasts 2 China New Energy Vehicles: 30 August 2018 Table of contents China LiB market outlook ........................................................................................ 4 LiB battery sales set to increase in 2018-20E ....................................................................4 Major LiB makers in China ............................................................................................... 12 ASP pressure and gross margin decline likely to continue; net margin to bottom out over 2018-20E ............................................................................................................... 16 A look at competition with global players.......................................................................... 20 Stock recommendations .................................................................................................. 22 Risks to our sector view ................................................................................................... 25 Company Section Contemporary Amperex Technology ................................................................................ 26 Guoxuan High-Tech ......................................................................................................... 41 BYD ................................................................................................................................. 45 3 China New Energy Vehicles: 30 August 2018 China LiB market outlook LiB battery sales set to increase in 2018-20E Why is NEV development so important to China? NEVs: China’s way of It seems inevitable that the world’s automobile industry will transition from internal catching up in the combustion engines (ICEs) to NEVs in the next few decades, given the increasing need for world’s automobile environmental protection and the potential expiration of non-renewable energy resources. industry By 2017, some 7 countries had announced timelines to prohibit sales of traditional ICE vehicles, potentially by as early as 2025. For its part, the Chinese government is studying the timeline for such a transition, according to a speech made by Mr. Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information, on 9 September 2017. We believe China is likely to set a more aggressive deadline than those of some developed countries, as the government is keen for the country to become a top-tier player in the automobile industry. Timeline for phasing out ICE sales by country Country/state Target phase-out year Type of vehicle phased out Netherlands 2025 ICE US (California) 2025 ICE Norway 2030 non-EV German 2030 ICE India 2030 ICE France 2040 ICE UK 2040 ICE, HEV China* 2030-35 Source: news, *Daiwa estimates Global EV market share by country (2017) Other 4% USA 16% China 49% Europe 25% Japan 5% Source: EV Volume Although China’s automobile industry dates back over 60 years, and its annual production volume reached nearly 30m units in 2017, China’s ICE vehicle/component manufacturing technology still lags far behind that of global OEMs.
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