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Market Roundup Equity Markets Have Been Mixed This Week As Positive 20 November 2020 Market roundup Chart 1: US retail sales October Equity markets have been mixed this week as positive sentiment 600000 surrounding vaccine news gave way to worries about the near- term economic impact of the pandemic and associated lock- 500000 downs. US and UK shares have edged down, while most other 400000 markets across Europe and Asia have eked out gains. A notable 300000 exception is Japan which is experiencing record numbers of new cases. The week started well after biotech company Moderna re- 200000 leased its initial findings from its Phase 3 trials that show it is 100000 94.5% effective at preventing Covid-19 infections. This added to the excellent news from Pfizer-BioNTech last week. The FTSE 0 100 rose by 1.66% to close at 6,421.29, and the more domesti- 06/2011 01/2012 08/2012 03/2013 10/2013 05/2014 12/2014 07/2015 02/2016 09/2016 04/2017 11/2017 06/2018 01/2019 08/2019 03/2020 10/2020 cally focused FTSE250 gained 1.75% to 19,608.05. 11/2010 In the US, the Dow rose by 1.60% to close at a record high of Source: US Census Bureau Data at 31/102020 29,950.44. The S&P500 was up 1.16% at 3,626.91 and the Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 11,924.13. Chart 2: UK inflation rate October 5 Markets then finished lower on Tuesday, with the FTSE100 down 5 by 0.87% to 6365.33, while in the US the Dow fell by 0.56% and 4 the Nasdaq fell 0.21% to 11,899.34. The UK market got a lift on 4 Wednesday when an update from Pfizer said its vaccine was in 3 fact better than initially thought. The news helped the FTSE100 3 close up by 0.31%. US equity indices all finished lower on 2 Wednesday with the Dow and S&P500 both losing 1.16% and 2 the Nasdaq down 0.82%. 1 1 On Thursday, UK shares fell again, with the FTSE100 closing 0 down 0.8%, and markets across Europe also closed down. But US markets registered a surprise gain against a backdrop of ris- ing infections and unemployment. The Dow closed up by 0.15% 2017 APR 2017 2011 APR 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2018 APR 2019 APR 2020 2010 OCT 2010 OCT 2011 OCT 2012 OCT 2013 OCT 2014 OCT 2015 OCT 2016 OCT 2017 OCT 2018 OCT 2019 OCT 2020 and the Nasdaq rose by 0.87%. In early trading on Friday, UK shares were heading up. Source: ONS Data at 31/10/2020 Company focus: Imperial Brands Chart 3: Imperial Brands asset brand net revenue Imperial Brands reported a rise in annual sales and profits this week while forecasting improving profits in 2021. The rise in 22% 52% sales was underpinned by strong demand for its tobacco prod- ucts which offset a drop in its e-cigarette business. The com- Europe pany, which makes Gauloises and JPS cigarette brands, said full-year adjusted group revenue rose 0.8% to £8bn. Imperial Americas forecast “low-to-mid-single digit growth” in operating profit for 2021. Africa, Asia & Australasia Pre-tax profit increased to £2.17bn for the year to 30 Septem- ber, up from £1.69bn last year. It announced a final dividend of 26% 48.01p a share, equating to a full-year pay out of 137.71p, down 33.3% on last year. Adjusted earnings per share of 254.4p were down 5.6%, caused partly by write downs related Source: Imperial Brands yearly report Data at 17/11/2020 to its e-cigarette business. Shares closed up by 7.34%. Sources: Bloomberg, Sharecast, FT, company reports and accounts Economic roundup Despite the good news on the vaccine front this week, the growth in Covid-19 infections, hospitalisations and deaths is causing concern about how deeply scarred the economy will be by the time a vaccine can be widely administered. The US Federal Reserve, along with the European Central Bank (ECB), has repeatedly underlined the importance of continued fiscal stimulus from their governments to support economic activity until the vaccines are widely available. However, they are being met with limited success. In spite of the worsening Covid-19 situation, there has been no progress on the US fiscal stimulus bill which has been stalled since the summer. The Democrats have already passed a $2.2trn bill ready to be implemented but President Trump appears to be ignoring the issue while he is busy challenging the election result. The near-term worry is that a number of the initial stimulus’s key income elements, such as enhanced unemployment benefits, have already expired - and more are set to run out soon, leaving households short of cash. Similarly, the EU is facing a stalemate after Poland and Hungary blocked progress on the EU budget and recovery fund that was intended to provide billions of euros to help economies hit by the pandemic. Hungary and Poland blocked the budget proposals arguing that they could not accept a clause making access to EU funds conditional on upholding the rule of law. In the US, data from the Commerce Department this week showed retail sales rising by less than expected in October, with signs sales could slow further as fiscal support diminishes and Covid-19 continues to surge. Sales rose 0.3% last month, the smallest increase since May, following a rise of 1.6% in September. Meanwhile, UK inflation edged up to 0.7% in October from 0.5% in September, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Economists had been expecting an increase to 0.6% in the Consumer Prices Index. The biggest factor was an increase in prices of clothing and footwear. Clothing prices rose by 2.8% between September and October. Some economists predict inflation will rise sharply next April when energy prices rise, and then in the summer as vaccines are distributed and people spend on holidays, restaurants and leisure, although the increases could be offset by reductions in the prices of electronics and cars, which have seen steep increases this year. House prices are hitting record highs on both sides of the Atlantic, as demand is boosted by the stamp duty holiday in the UK and by record low rates in the US. The average house price in the UK increased 4.7% in the year to September, up from 3% in August, according to the ONS. Average house prices hit a new high of £245,000 nationally and £496,000 in London. In the US, the National Association of Homebuilders Index hit yet another new all-time high, while US house prices are also setting new records. Housing demand remains very strong. The latest quarterly Fed Senior Loan Officer survey showed residential mortgage demand is booming, and even with house-building activity increasing, it will not be enough to keep up with the pace of new household formation. Household inventories have fallen to record lows, which is consistent with rising prices. The US housing market is one of the best leading indicators of the US economy, as it generally leads to an increase in real GDP after around a year. Company announcements that caught our attention this week: Date Company Comment 18/11/2020 easyJet Low-cost airline easyJet announced a £1.3bn annual loss this week - the first in its his- tory. The pre-tax loss contrasts with a £430m profit last year. Revenue fell 52% to £3bn. The company also announced the sale and leaseback of a further 10 A320 aircraft with SMBC Aviation Capital Limited generating around £280.2m to improve its balance sheet. Bookings soared by 50% on positive vaccine news, which the company said proved that underlying demand for travel was strong after months of travel restrictions. The company has cut its workforce and other costs, and quarterly cash burn improved to £651m from £774m a year earlier. 19/11/2020 William Hill William Hill shareholders have voted resoundingly in favour of the company's £2.9bn takeover by Caesars Entertainment. At a meeting on Thursday 86.6% of shareholder votes were cast in favour of the scheme of arrangement for the cash purchase and 87.1% voted for the scheme's implementation. A 75% vote in favour was needed in both cases to approve the deal. William Hill recommended the offer to shareholders so that the en- larged group could cash in on the expanding sports betting market. Caesars is buying William Hill to bolster its US betting operations and plans to sell the rest of the business including William Hill's chain of bookmakers. Sources: Office for National Statistics; US Commerce Dep; British Retail Consortium; National Association of Homebuilders; company reports/accounts Brewin Dolphin Research Key company diary dates 23 Nov Daily Mail & General Trust plc Final results 24 Nov Compass Group plc Final results 26 Nov Severn Trent plc Interim results Economic highlights over the next week Mon 23 Nov – Manufacturing Flash PMI Nov – The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 53.7 in October 2020, from a preliminary estimate of 53.3 and compared to September's final reading of 54.1. Mon 23 Nov – UK Services Flash PMI Nov - The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI was revised lower to 51.4 in Octo- ber of 2020 from a preliminary of 52.3 but still pointing to the 4th straight month of growth in the services sector although at a slower pace.
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