News-Juice-11Th-September-2020

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1. Maratha quota — the agitation, the politics

Relevant for GS Prelims & Mains Paper II; Polity & Governance

The Supreme Court on Wednesday referred to a Constitution Bench the question of whether states can exceed the 50% limit on quotas that was set by a nine-judge Bench in the landmark Indra Sawhney vs Union of India (1992) case. The question will now be taken up by a Bench comprising at least 11 judges.

Case in Supreme Court A Bench of Justices L Nageswara Rao, Hemant Gupta, and S Ravindra Bhat heard a batch of petitions challenging reservations for Marathas in education and jobs in Maharashtra. The petitions appealed a 2019 Bombay High Court decision that upheld the constitutional validity of the Maratha quota under the Socially and Educationally Backward Classes (SEBC) Act, 2018. The Bench also heard a petition challenging admission to postgraduate medical and dental courses under the quota in the state.

Bombay HC ruling A Division Bench of the High Court ruled last year that the 16% quota granted by the state recommended by the Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission (MSBCC). The Bench was not “justifiable”, and reduced it to 12% in education and 13% in government jobs, as circumstances and extraordinary situations, this limit can be crossed subject to availability ofruled quantifiable that “the limit and of contemporaneous reservation should data not reflecting exceed 50%”; backwardness, however, “in inadequacy exceptional of heavily on the findings of the 11-member MSBCC, which submitted in November 2018 that therepresentation Maratha community and without is socially, affecting economically the efficiency and educationally in administration”. backward. The court relied

Existing reservation Following the 2001 State Reservation Act, the total reservation in Maharashtra was 52%: Scheduled Castes (13%), Scheduled Tribes (7%), Other Backward Classes (19%), Special Backward Class (2%), Vimukti Jati (3%), Nomadic Tribe B (2.5%), Nomadic Tribe C- Dhangar (3.5%) and Nomadic Tribe D-Vanjari (2%). The quotas for Nomadic Tribes and Special Backward Classes have been carved out of the total OBC quota. With the addition of 12-13% Maratha quota, the total reservation in the state went up to 64-65%. The 10% quota for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) announced by the Centre last year is also effective in the state.

The Marathas The Marathas are a politically dominant

community who make up 32% of Maharashtra’s divisionpopulation. of land They and haveagrarian historically problems beenover the identified years have as led a to ‘warrior’ a decline caste of prosperity with large landholdings. Eleven of the state’s 19 chief ministers so far have been Marathas. While

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among middle- and lower middle-class Marathas, the community still plays an important role in the rural economy.

The discontent in the community could spill over into protests and unrest if the quota issue is not resolved soon. In 2016-17, the Maratha Kranti Morcha (MKM) led 58 silent protests demanding reservations. The second phase of the protest saw a spate of suicides. The backward Marathwada region was the worst affected by the protests.

Political pulls, pressures All three parties in the ruling coalition, the Congress, NCP, and Shiv Sena, are in favour of the Maratha quota. The sub-committee for Maratha reservation headed by Ashok Chavan has maintained they had recruited the best lawyers to plead their case in the SC. The state government can be expected to explore all options to restore the quota. The MKM has The organisation holds the government responsible for not presenting their case well before the apex court. termed the stay on quota as “extremely unfortunate”. The opposition BJP has seen a political opportunity, and would be gearing up to use the developments to consolidate its political base amongst the Maratha community, and make inroads into Congress and NCP bastions in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. Vanchit who were never against Maratha reservation. However, reservation for Marathas should notBahujan be at Aghadithe cost president of the existing Prakash quota Ambedkar for OBCs. said the court’s order does not impact OBCs,

Source: The Indian Express

2. Taking stock of jobs lost, sectors affected, and possible ways forward

Relevant for GS Prelims & Mains Paper III; Economics

Mahesh Vyas, MD and CEO of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), will be the sharpExpert Guest at Thursday’s edition of explained.Live, where he will discuss “How to save lockdownsexisting jobs are and likely create to newresult ones”. in the Rising Indian levels economy of unemployment contracting byhave over been 10% brought in the intofull financialfocus year, by and a sharp this is contraction expected to of result 23.9% in more in India’s and more GDP in people the first losing quarter. jobs, apar Thet from fewer new entrants finding work.

In other words, the number of unemployed is likely to grow not just because more and more people entering the labour force fail to find jobs, but also because several already employed are likely to lose their jobs.

Lack of data Any analysis of the jobs situation in India is marred by the lack of prompt data on provided

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through the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which is conducted by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation comes out with a considerable lag. The PLFS is an annual survey that also provides quarterly updates but the latest PLFS report, which was released in June, pertains to July— 2018 to June 2019 period.

In the absence of official estimates, the surveys done by CMIE, which Vyas heads, are often seen as the benchmark. However, it should be underscored that CMIE and PLFS data are not comparable because of methodological and in particular, definitional differences. The story so far — — In November 2019, a research paper by Santosh Mehrotra and Jajati Parida, published by the Centre of Sustainable Employment at the Azim Premji University, analysed PLFS 2017- 18 data and found that for the first time in Independent India the total number of employed people declined between 2011-12 and 2017-18 (Chart 2). They calculated that total employment fell from 474 million in 2011-12 to 465 million in 2017-18 a drop of 9 million. — PLFS 2017-18 also found that the unemployment rate had trebled in this period of 6 years, reaching a 45-year high. According to Mehrotra and Parida, this meant the total number of unemployed went up from 10 million in 2011-12 to 30 million in 2017-18.

The worst affected were the youth those between ages 15 and 29. The total number of unemployed youth went up marginally from 8.9 million in 2004-05 to 9 million in 2011-12 but shot up to 25.1 million by 2017-18.— Worse, the rate of unemployment rose as one improved on educational attainment.

Since the end of 2017- Mehrotra told The Indian Express that he does not expect the total number of unemployed coming down. 18, India’s growth has steadily faltered (Chart 1). As a result,

Source: CMIE

could have as many as 50 million unemployed at present, he added. “The Covid pandemic now has, of course, completely destroyed the picture,” he said. India to 12 mn new jobs each year for the coming decade. A recent McKinsey study, too, pegged the total numberWhat’s more, of non-farm according jobs to that his calculations,India needed India to create needs in to the add coming around decade 10 mn between 90 mn to 140 mn.

Source: CMIE

Beyond NSO data Since 2016, CMIE has been conducting its own surveys to track employment and unemployment levels in India on a weekly basis. However, Vyas states that their definition for gauging employment is far stricter and as such the data is not comparable to PLFS.

But even the CMIE data for the total number of employed and unemployed (Chart 3) exhibits a disappointing trend with both metrics worsening since 2016. The pandemic in 2020 had the expected deleterious impact on the job market. According to Vyas, the worst affected were salaried jobs which saw a reduction of 21 million between the start of April and August end. In terms of the age group, CMIE data suggests that the jobs of those between 15-39 were most severely affected.

Source: The Indian Express

3. What AstraZeneca vaccine trial’s pause means for trials

Relevant for GS Prelims & Mains Paper III; Science & Technology

Global pharma major AstraZeneca announced late on Tuesday evening that it was putting a halt on ongoing clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine it is developing in collaboration

with Oxford University. It said it was a “voluntary” and “routine action” that happens The“whenever Oxford-AstraZeneca there is a potentially candidate unexplained vaccine isillness undergoing in one of phase-3 the trials”. clinical trials at more than 60 locations in the US, Brazil and South Africa. It is the same vaccine that was cleared for combined phase-2 and phase-3 trials in India. The trials in India began last month, and about 100 participants have received the dose.

Why have the Oxford-AstraZeneca candidate vaccine trials been halted? Though AstraZeneca did not specify what exactly had happened, it has been reported that a c companytrial participant to review in Englandwhat was developed the cause. “serious adverse” illnesses. As of now, it is not even lear whether the “adverse event” is even a result of the vaccine. The pause will enable the What does it mean for the trials now? This is a temporary pause, to investigate the illness in the affected patient, though it is not clear how long that is going to take. As of now, there do not appear to be any serious question marks over the safety of the vaccine, because such incidents are not uncommon in trials for vaccines or drugs. The only direct impact of the incident could be on the timeline for producing the vaccine. AstraZeneca, like other developers, has been targeting early next year for making its vaccine available.

But the incident has implications beyond that, for other vaccine developers as well. It demonstrates the inherent uncertainties in the process of developing a vaccine, and the importance of rigorously following the scientific method during trials.

What are these larger implications? In the current rush to produce a coronavirus vaccine as early as possible, several usual regulatory procedures have been bypassed, raising concerns amongst experts and scientists. By all accounts, a coronavirus vaccine is expected to be ready by early next year. That itself would have made it the fastest developed vaccine, ever.

But now, there is also an attempt, especially in the US, to release the vaccine this year itself. There is also a political push make the vaccine, at least notionally, available before the November 3 Presidential elections. President Donald Trump, seeking a re-election, has repeatedly said that a vaccine could be available this year, possibly before November 3. The vaccine is seen as boosting his re-election chances.

Elsewhere as well, there has been a rush to come out with a coronavirus vaccine, even if that means skipping phase-3 trials. The Russian vaccine, and a couple of candidates in China, have been approved in their respective countries without phase-3 trials having been initiated. It is only now, after much criticism, that these vaccines are also preparing to undergo phase-3 trials.

Are such incidents unusual during trials? Shahid Jameel, a virologist, said the incident only highlighted the importance of following med about as of now. These things happen quite routinely during vaccine or drug trials. The good thing is that despitethe prescribed the rush processes. to produce “The a coronavirusincident itself vaccine, is nothing we stillto be have alar systems in place that id.

Unlikewould pickphase-1 these and things phase-2 out. Sotrials, that where is reassuring,” the volunteers he sa are carefully chosen to be healthy adults, phase-3 trials involve a very large number of participants, some of whom can have underlying diseases or weaknesses. As a result, it is not unusual for a case like the current one to emerge during the trials.

- examine. And that is what seems to be happening in this case. This is normal process, and this“When is howsuch itthings should emerge, and they do quite regularly, you have to pause, reassess, re -track their development. It will also likely temper public expectationbe,” Jameel and said. excitement The incident about is a a vaccine reminder being against made deviating available fromvery prescribedsoon, and possibly processes ward in developers’off political pressurekeenness to to rush fast through the process to meet political deadlines.

A day earlier, nine pharma companies, including AstraZeneca, had released a joint make the safety and well- statement promising not to prematurely release their vaccines, and “always and efficacy throughbeing a phase- of the vaccinated individuals” their top priority. These companies said they would seek approval for their vaccine candidates only “after demonstrating safety Will the incident impact the3 India clinical trials? study”. AstraZeneca has not explicitly clarified whether trials at all locations have been paused. As such, the status of the India trials, being sponsored by Pune-based Serum Institute of India, is not clear. Serum Institute itself said the incident will have no impact on the ongoing trials

Buthere, the and trials that it in had India faced are “no already issues at in all” a temporary,in the trials scheduled,so far. pause, unrelated to the incident, right now. In the initial round of the trials, 100 participants have been vaccinated. Follow-up information from these participants is to be submitted to an independent expert body, called the Data Safety and Monitoring Board (DSMB), for review. Only after the expert body has reviewed and approved the data will the trials sites go ahead vaccinating

more volunteers. Further enrolment of participants in India has been put on hold for the last one week, when the first 100 volunteers had been vaccinated.

What will the Board look at? The DSMB is expected to meet on Thursday or Friday to assess the data generated from the first group of volunteers. It will then decide whether the vaccine candidate is safe enough to be administered in more participants. If it finds any serious safety issue, it can even recommend that the trials be stopped. Some of the principal investigators involved in the trials expect the DSMB to now also take up this new incident when it conducts its own r event (in the UK ofreview. the investigators “The DSMB said.will review the Indian data along with this particula participant) that has occurred, and then decide and let us know what has to be done,” one Source: The Indian Express

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