Pomacea Spp.) in Florida Stephanie A
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Nova Southeastern University NSUWorks HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations HCNSO Student Work 12-7-2017 Forecasting the Spread and Invasive Potential of Apple Snails (Pomacea spp.) in Florida Stephanie A. Reilly Nova Southeastern University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_stuetd Part of the Aquaculture and Fisheries Commons, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons, Other Animal Sciences Commons, and the Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology Commons Share Feedback About This Item NSUWorks Citation Stephanie A. Reilly. 2017. Forecasting the Spread and Invasive Potential of Apple Snails (Pomacea spp.) in Florida. Master's thesis. Nova Southeastern University. Retrieved from NSUWorks, . (460) https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_stuetd/460. This Thesis is brought to you by the HCNSO Student Work at NSUWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of NSUWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Thesis of Stephanie A. Reilly Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science M.S. Marine Biology Nova Southeastern University Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography December 2017 Approved: Thesis Committee Major Professor: Matthew Johnston Committee Member: Bernhard Riegl Committee Member: Kenneth A. Hayes This thesis is available at NSUWorks: https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_stuetd/460 HALMOS COLLEGE OF NATURAL SCIENCES AND OCEANOGRAPHY FORECASTING THE SPREAD AND INVASIVE POTENTIAL OF APPLE SNAILS (POMACEA SPP.) IN FLORIDA By: Stephanie A. Reilly Submitted to the Faculty of Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science with a specialty in: Marine Biology Nova Southeastern University December 2017 Thesis of Stephanie A. Reilly Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Science: Marine Biology Nova Southeastern University Halmos College of Natural Sciences and Oceanography Approved: 12/5/2017 Thesis Committee: Major Professor: ___________________________ Dr. Matthew Johnston, Ph.D. Committee Member: ________________________ Dr. Bernhard Riegl, Ph.D. Committee Member: ________________________ Dr. Kenneth A. Hayes, Ph.D. List of Tables Table 1: Physiological tolerances of select species of apple snails .................................. 12 Table 2: List of studies using MaxEnt including the purpose, extent, and organisms studied ............................................................................................................................... 15 Table 3: Summary of environmental layers used in each model run ................................ 16 Table 4: Risk analysis- conversion of output model into a prediction of potential invasion risk..................................................................................................................................... 18 Table 5: AUC values of base SDM's ................................................................................ 20 Table 6: AUC values of extended SDM's ......................................................................... 20 Table 7: Percent of forecasted habitat suitability in Florida for selected invasive Pomacean snails ................................................................................................................ 21 Table 8: Strongest indicators of invasion success based on jackknife and marginal response curves ................................................................................................................. 21 Table 9: Base SDM variable importance for P. canaliculata ............................................ 25 Table 10: Base SDM variable importance for P. diffusa .................................................. 25 Table 11: Base SDM variable importance for P. maculata ............................................... 25 Table 12: Extended SDM variable importance for P. canaliculata ................................... 30 Table 13: Extended SDM variable importance for P. diffusa ........................................... 30 Table 14: Extended SDM variable importance for P. maculata ....................................... 30 Table 15: Forecasted percent cover of Florida at risk of Pomacea spp. invasion ............. 31 ii List of Figures Figure 1: Example record from EDDMaps database ........................................................ 13 Figure 2: Florida sub-basins (HUC 8) .............................................................................. 19 Figure 3: Base SDM of P. canaliculata ............................................................................ 22 Figure 4: Base SDM of P. diffusa .................................................................................... 23 Figure 5: Base SDM of P. maculata................................................................................. 24 Figure 6: Extended SDM of P. canaliculata .................................................................... 27 Figure 7: Extended SDM of P. diffusa............................................................................. 28 Figure 8: Extended SDM of P. maculata ......................................................................... 29 Figure 9: P. canaliculata risk analysis map using FEMA one-hundred year flood data ... 32 Figure 10: P. diffusa risk analysis map using FEMA one-hundred year flood data ......... 33 Figure 11: P. maculata risk analysis map using FEMA one-hundred year flood data ..... 34 iii Table of Contents List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... iii Abstract ................................................................................................................................1 1.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................2 1.1 Invasive Apple Snails .................................................................................................3 1.2 Invasive Apple Snail Impacts .....................................................................................4 1.3 Introduction and Spread in Florida ...........................................................................6 1.4 Removal and Eradication Efforts ...............................................................................7 1.5 Species Distribution Models.......................................................................................8 1.6 Study Motivation and Purpose ...................................................................................9 2.0 Methods........................................................................................................................10 2.1 Data Collection ........................................................................................................10 2.2 The Species Distribution Models..............................................................................14 2.3 Base Species Distribution Models ............................................................................15 2.4 Expanded Species Distribution Models....................................................................16 2.5 Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve ..............................................................17 2.6 Risk Analysis ............................................................................................................17 3.0 Results ..........................................................................................................................20 3.1 Base SDMs ...............................................................................................................20 3.2 Extended SDMs ........................................................................................................25 3.3 Risk Analysis Maps...................................................................................................31 4.0 Discussion and Conclusion ..........................................................................................35 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................40 References ..........................................................................................................................41 Appendices .........................................................................................................................55 iv Abstract Forecasting the potential range of invasive species is a critical component for risk assessment, monitoring, and management. However, many of these invasive species are not yet at equilibrium which can be problematic for many modelling approaches. Using the climate matching method, MaxEnt, a series of species distribution models (SDMs) and risk analysis maps were created for select apple snail species in Florida: Pomacea canaliculata, P. diffusa, and P. maculata. Apple snails, freshwater gastropods in the family Ampullariidae, are native to South America and were introduced to the United States via the pet trade approximately 40 years ago. These highly invasive species have already been introduced in ten states and established in at least seven. The models