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ETHIOPIA Food Security Alert February 11, 2008

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ETHIOPIA Food Security Alert February 11, 2008 ETHIOPIA Food Security Alert February 11, 2008 Poor rain forecasts suggest increased food insecurity The Government of Ethiopia’s (GoE) National Meteorology Figure 1. Climate outlook for the 2008 gu/ganna/belg Agency forecasts below‐normal 2008 gu/ganna/belg rains season (March to May) (March to May) in the eastern half of the country. These rains are critical in southeastern pastoral areas of Somali Region and neighboring lowlands of Borena, Guji, and Bale zones of Oromiya Region, where households are already highly food insecure due to the poor performance of the 2007 gu and deyr (October to December) rains. Poor or failed gu rains in 2008 will likely lead to extreme food insecurity in these areas, unless immediate interventions are implemented. Contingency planning for such interventions is required immediately. In addition to poor 2007 rains, restrictions on trade and movement in Somali Region that began in June 2007 have severely limited market access for pastoral and agropastoral populations living in Gode, Korahe, Degehabur, Warder, and Source: Based on National Meteorological Agency’s January 2008 Climate Kebridehar zones. While slight improvements have been Outlook forum; Graphics by FEWS NET noted in the movement of commercial cereals to these zones, livestock exports – the main source of income for most of populations in these areas – continue to be limited. This has made it difficult for people to purchase food, which has become expensive due, in part, to the restrictions. Abnormal livestock migrations, critical levels of acute malnutrition and measles occurrences have been reported in some of these areas. Poor October to November rains in parts of Borena, Guji, and Bale zones of Oromiya Region led to earlier‐than‐normal depletion of pasture and water resources, particularly in Dire, Moyale, Miyo Dillo, Dhas, Arero, Yabello, and Teltele woredas (districts) of Borena Zone. In these areas, water points have dried up, massive livestock migrations have occurred, livestock body conditions are poor, and livestock prices have declined while prices for maize have increased. Locust infestations in these woredas further aggravate this situation. In pastoral areas of Afar Region, karma (July to August) rains were close to normal, except in the north and northeast, where below‐normal rains have already caused pasture and water shortages. Below‐normal March to May rains would also negatively impact belg crop‐producing areas in the northeastern highlands and central and southern parts of the country. The GoE and humanitarian partners need to prepare a contingency plan in the event that the March to May rains fail or perform poorly. The plan should include market interventions for livestock before their physical condition deteriorates further; water point maintenance to take advantage of whatever rains are received; provision of required food aid with improved targeting and monitoring, especially in pastoral areas; preparations for possible nutrition interventions and measles and upper respiratory tract infection outbreaks; and preparations for the provision of short–cycle drought resistant seed for belg crop‐dependent parts of the country. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) issues alerts to prompt decision-maker action to prevent or mitigate potential or actual food insecurity. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK For more information see: www.fews.net/ethiopia .
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