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Fuelling the Future of Mobility: Moon-Produced Space Propellants

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Fuelling the Future of Mobility: Moon-Produced Space Propellants May 2021 Fuelling the future of mobility: Moon-produced space propellants Go Beyond The forthcoming decade is expected to witness a wave of missions to the Moon and Mars, and fuel supply is a major challenge to make these travels economically sustainable. The difference in the required energy to launch from Earth and from the Moon is causing people to reconsider refuelling point positions (e.g. NHRO, Near Halo Rectilinear Orbit) and contemplate using space-produced propellants. A whole production and transport value chain would have to be established on the Moon. Initial investments are sizeable (~$7B) but an economic oportunity for space propellants should exist if launch costs from Earth do not fall too much below current SpaceX standards. Capex optimization and increased scale should further improve the competitiveness of space propellants. Positive outcomes for ’terrestrial‘ applications are also expected to be significant. Fuelling the future of mobility: Moon-produced space propellants The Case for Moon-Produced Propellants The next decade is expected to witness After 2024, NASA expects to set up a a boom in Lunar and Mars exploration. base camp on the moon (’Artemis Base Space-exploration- After the space race of the 60s, there has Camp’) to be a long-term foothold for lunar been an unprecedented resurgence of exploration, as well as a Moon-orbiting driven technologies unmanned Lunar and Mars missions since station (’Gateway’) on the NHRO (Near the end of the 90s, as well as the spread Rectilinear Halo Orbit) being a site for also have very of space programs to various countries. developing the knowledge and experience (e.g. Chinese rovers on the moon, UAE necessary to venture beyond the Moon beneficial impacts mission to Mars, etc.…). The next decade and into deep space (e.g. Mars-analog is expected to witness further Lunar and missions). The fuel supply will then be on ’terrestrial’ Mars exploration. a major challenge in making cis-lunar traveling economically sustainable. applications. Although historically dominated by governmental players, space exploration Furthermore, space-exploration-driven will increasingly attract private operators, technologies often have beneficial impacts bringing about major technical and on ’terrestrial’ applications. Safran, Airbus business model disruptions. Indeed, at the and Ariane Group launched the ’Hyperion’ beginning of April 2021, Elon Musk’s SpaceX project, to leverage space-launcher won the NASA $2.9B contract to build a technologies to cryogenic systems for Moon lander, besting Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin hydrogen powered aircraft. Technical and others (who are, however, still relevant advances driven by this new wave of space competitors for further missions) in the exploration are also to be expected. contest to carry American astronauts to the lunar surface1. A first landing on the Moon is scheduled for 2024, and Elon Musk recently reiterated his ambition to land manned spaceships on Mars before 20302. Figure 1 Chronology of major Lunar and Mars exploration programs Globalization and privatization of exploration: Politically-fueled two-country space race: deeper exploration to prepare for sustainable human survey of human lunar landings presence (main projects) 1958 Pioneer prog. 1990 Hiten 2013 LADEE 1959 Luna prog. 1994 Clementine 2013 Chang’e 3 1962 Ranger prog. 1998 Lunar Prospector 2018 Chang’e 4 1965 Zond prog. 2003 SMART-I 2019 Chandrayaan 2 1966 Lunar Orbiter 2007 SELENE 2019 Beresheet 1966 Surveyor prog. 2007 Chang’e 1 2021 Artemis 1 1967 Apollo prog. 2008 Chandrayaan I 2021 Luna 25 1970 Lunokhod prog. 2009 LRO 2022 Chandrayaan 3 1970 Luna 16 2009 LCROSS 2022 Smart Lander for Investigating Moon MOON 1972 Luna 20 2010 Chang’e 2 2023-24 Chang’e 6 / Chang’e 7 1976 Luna 24 2011 GRAIL 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960 Marsnik prog. 1998: Nozomi 2011: Phobos Grunt 1962 Sputnik 22 & 24 1999: Mars Polar Lander 2011: Yinghuo-1 1962 Mars prog. 1999: Deep Space 2 2011: Mars Science Lab. 1964 Mariner prog. 2001: Mars Odyssey 2013: Mangalyaan 2020 Emirates Mars Mission 1964 Zond prog. 2003: Mars Express 2013: MAVEN 2016: ExoMars 2016 1975 Viking prog. 2003: MER-A Spirit 1988 Phobos prog. 2003: MER-B Opportunity 2018: InSight 1992 Mars Observer 2005: Mars Reconn. Orbiter 1996 Mars Global Surveyor 2007: Phoenix 2020 Mars 2020 Perseverence MARS 1996 Mars 96 2022 ExoMars 2022 1996 Mars Pathfinder 1998: Mars Climate Orbiter 2026-31 Concepts for Mars sample returns ExplorationExploration programs programs SurveySurvey/Flyby/Flyby OrbiteOrbiterr Lander/ILander/Impactormpactor Rover/Manned/SamRover/Manned/Sampleple return return DiverseDiverse Source: Country space agencies, Corporations, Monitor Deloitte analysis 2 Fuelling the future of mobility: Moon-produced space propellants Space-produced propellants can be a There is no doubt that developing The difference in major catalyst for space exploration. viable LH2 (hydrogen) and LOx (oxygen) The energy required to sustain space production on the Moon will drive major the required energy programs is clearly stated by the technical breakthroughs also benefiting Tsiolkovsky rocket equation stating the Earth-based technologies. to launch from amount of necessary propellants in terms of the difference between the initial (m ) The major parameters influencing the 0 Earth and from the and the final (mf) masses of the vehicle success of such an initiative will be: being proportional to an exponential of • the development of a stable and sizeable Moon is pushing ΔV (the maximum change of velocity of the market for space propellants (with a vehicle), v being the effective ship exhaust e regular schedule of manned and un- industrial players to velocity. manned missions on the Moon and to Mars); consider refuelling • the ability of players (both public and A much larger ΔV (9.5 km/s to LEO) is private) to position themselves on the points in space needed to escape Earth gravity than to different space propellants, value stages travel across cislunar space, therefore to develop a coordinated, technically using an energy requiring a huge amount of propellants. consistent and economically viable This difference in the required energy to solution; from the Moon. launch from Earth and from the Moon is pushing industrial players to consider • the cost competitiveness of space refuelling points (e.g. EML-1, NRHO) in space launchers, as their falling costs – currently mainly driven by SpaceX – may jeopardize with an energy source (e.g. focus on LH2 Moon-produced propellant prices which and LOx in our document, CH4 being also a feasible option) that will be mined and would be highly dependent on ’Next Best processed on the Moon. Offers’ from Earth. Figure 2 Major routes in cis-lunar space (and associated ΔV) Asteroids: • Water mining • Material mining ∆VLorem = 0.5–2.0 ipsum km/s ∆V = 0.8 km/s (aerobraking) - Shuttle for human transport (long term: Helium-3, rare metals?) Shuttle to • Water mining transport • Material mining water • Processing and raw ∆V = 4 km/s materials Earth to LEO Shuttle to fuel satellite transport Lunar lander ∆V = 9.5 km/s (long term: complex satellites assembeld at EML-1, EML-1 for raw GEO LEO or e.g;, using 3D-printing parts NRHO materials ∆LoremV = 1.4 ipsumkm/s ∆V = 2.5 km/s • Propellant refining & storage • Manufacture ∆V = 2 km/s to Shuttle for transport of humans ∆V = 3.8 km/s and complex parts Mars Capture Orbit MARS Potential economic space for Moon propellants, as necessary ∆V (and thus delivered cost positions) to reach most Mars/cis-lunar locations from Moon surface is modest compared to that needed to leave Earth) GEO: Geostationary Earth Orbit - LEO: Low Earth Orbit - EML: Earth Moon Lagrange Point Potential trade routes Source: Study of Lunar Propellant Production (2018), United Launch Alliance 3 Fuelling the future of mobility: Moon-produced space propellants Practical Matters: The Space Propellant Value Chain In order to produce space propellants on To be competitive, all construction and the Moon, a whole value chain must be operations are expected to be performed developed, from mining ice from its source by robotic systems, the need for manned in Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSR) on missions being limited to a few exceptional the Moon, through processing, and all the maintenance or repair operations in case of way to the end user as propellant. The full major damage. infrastructure will involve major systems: the lunar mine, propellant processing, power, robotic services, communication/ navigation and propellant handling and logistics (in-space and on the lunar surface).3 Figure 3 A possible Moon propellant production value-chain Storage and Processing Mining Transfer Purification Liquefaction Storage Transport to EML1 for fuel Storage H2 H2 H2 procurement Water Lunar Setup On-site use Heating Transfer Drilling / Extraction crater Electrolysis O O O for fuel 2 2 2 to shuttles Water storage prospecting Water recovery procurement/ Water purification life support Illustrative, as several mining / water recovery techniques are being explored right now (e.g., sublimation from regolith, etc…) Robotic Service Communication Power generation (autonomous or assisted) and Navigation (solar and/or nuclear) SUPPORT OPERATIONS Source: Study of Lunar Propellant Production (2018), United Launch Alliance, Corporate websites, Monitor Deloitte analysis 4 Fuelling the future of mobility: Moon-produced space propellants Currently, even if the economic viability of • Power generation: Two means of propellant production on the moon is a generating power are being contemplated. To produce space question mark, all technologies necessary Solar power is a well-known technology to perform propellants production on the in space but would need to be located propellants on the Moon are either in development or have outside the PSR in a sunlit area, therefore already been developed: specific (and costly) power transmission Moon, a whole • Mining: There are uncertainties about the infrastructure. Nuclear power plants can physical forms of lunar water, which could function within a PSR.
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